West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · TSX:WFG
West Fraser Timber — Q3 2023 Earnings Presentation
71 slides from West Fraser Timber's earnings presentation, Oct 26, 2023
Slide 1: Investor Presentation October 2023
INVESTOR PRESENTATION October 2023
Slide 2: Financial Information and Forward Looking Statements
Financial Information: The financial information related to West Fraser contained in this Presentation is derived from our Q3 2023 Interim Financial Statements, which have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and is discussed in our Managements’ Discu
Slide 3: Q3 2023 Earnings Summary
Q3 2023 Earnings Summary
Slide 4: Consolidated Financial Results
Consolidated Financial Results US$ Millions US$ Millions Adjusted EBITDA* Q3-23 Q2-23 (except EPS) Q3-23 Q2-23 Lumber $ 44 $ 10 Sales $ 1,705 $ 1,608 EWP - North America 289 126 Costs and expenses (1,521) (1,804) Operating earnings (loss) 184 (196) Pulp & Paper (12) (74) Finance income 21 9 EWP - Eu
Slide 5: Q3-23 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
Q3-23 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation Primarily higher OSB pricing. Lumber: ($5) million Includes $62 million AR4 NA EWP: $184 million export duty recovery. Pulp & Paper: ($5) million EU EWP: ($11) million Net change in earnings impact Lower fiber, resin of inventory reserves from Q2- an
Slide 6: Q3-23 versus Q2-23
Q3-23 versus Q2-23 US$ millions unless Q3 2023 Q2 2023 Change Comments otherwise indicated Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,382 1,435 (53) Shipments lower, primarily SYP, owing to softer demand and weather challenges. NA OSB Shipments (MMsf 3/8”) 1,589 1,652 (63) Shipments lower due to maintenance-related
Slide 7: 2023 Outlook
2023 Outlook US$ unless indicated otherwise 2023E 2022 Commentary Expecting less detrimental impact from transportation challenges, SPF Shipments (MMfbm) 2,600 – 2,800 2,705 offset by BC sawmill curtailments announced in H2-2022. Now expecting shipments to be at bottom end of guidance range SYP Ship
Slide 8: Summary
Summary Q3 2023 Recap Looking Forward ✓ Experienced strong NA OSB demand while demand ✓ Seeing signs of demand cooling across multiple challenges persisted for Lumber segment products, though longer-term demand fundamentals remain favourable ✓ Maintained strength in liquidity despite cyclical headwi
Slide 9: Why Investors Should Own West Fraser Shares
Why Investors Should Own West Fraser Shares
Slide 10: Reasons to Invest in West Fraser Timber Co.
Reasons to Invest in West Fraser Timber Co. One of the world’s largest producers of sustainable wood-based building products Offers financial Serves markets Has a track record Has the scope, Is positioned to Has an attractive resilience through with strong of disciplined and scale, and benefit from
Slide 11: Resilience from Product and Geographic Diversity
Resilience from Product and Geographic Diversity
Slide 12: Product & Geographic Diversification – Capacity
Product & Geographic Diversification – Capacity Lumber North America EWP Pulp & Paper UK and Europe EWP 34 locations 19 locations 5 locations 4 locations OSB: 7,360 MMsf 3/8” NBSK: 170 Mtonnes OSB 1,515 MMsf 3/8” SPF 3.1 Bfbm Plywood: 770 MMsf 3/8” Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes Particleboard 565 MMsf 3/8”
Slide 13: More Relevant, Efficient and Valuable to Customer Segments
More Relevant, Efficient and Valuable to Principal Homebuilder, Building Construction, and Pro-Dealer Customer Segments 13
Slide 14: Operating Footprint on Two Continents
Operating Footprint on Two Continents BRITIS CO MBIA A BERTA CORPORATE OFFICES North America MBER P P & NEWSPRINT Q EBEC ENGINEERED WOOD ONTARIO Edmonton Quesnel P WOOD MDF, St. aurent MINNESOTA ParticleBoard (R&D) & Furniture ENEER & Toronto ancouver OSB NORT CARO INA TENNESSEE Memphis SO T AR ANSA
Slide 15: Diverse Industry End-Use Demand
Diverse Industry End-Use Demand with Majority Driven by New Residential and Lower-Volatility R&R Markets North America Lumber End Use 2022 North America OSB End Use 2022 Non-Residential Other 5% Non-Residential Other 7% Industrial 9% Industrial New 23% Residential 34% New Residential 59% R&R 24% R&R
Slide 16: Lumber Capacity Shifting to Lower-risk, Lower-cost Regions
West Fraser Lumber Capacity Shifting to Lower-risk, Lower-cost Regions • US South growth to ~54% of capacity (from ~11% in 2004); lower-cost region, not subject to US trade risk • Exposure to higher-cost B.C. fiber reduced, now ~22% of capacity (from ~77% in 2004) 2004: 2.8 Bfbm 2022: 6.7 Bfbm Briti
Slide 17: Historic Adjusted EBITDA
Historic Adjusted EBITDA Proforma Historical Combined Adj EBITDA (US$ millions) Segment Adj EBITDA Mix (US$ millions, excl. Corporate) Lumber NA EWP EU EWP P&P 5,000 1,800 100% Ainsworth 29 4 7 24 4,500 Norbord 1,600 80% West Fraser 4,000 20 1,400 U.S Housing starts (000s, RHS) 15 19 60% 215 3,500 1
Slide 18: Improving Mix of Lumber Products
Improving Mix of Lumber Products ▪ West Fraser pursued a U.S. south expansion strategy given expectations of U.S. South is Increasing Mix of 2x4s… medium- to long-term fiber supply constraints in B.C. Weighted Average +9% ▪ B.C was historically a heavy producer of 2x4s, suggesting industry 2x4 short
Slide 19: Lower-variability Specialty OSB Business
Lower-variability Specialty OSB Business North American OSB Shipments (3/8”) ▪ Specialty OSB products include those sold to export and industrial Mix % & Billion Square Feet (BSF) markets such as upholstered furniture, transportation applications and i- joist manufacturing 5.9 6.1 6.0 ▪ Shift to gre
Slide 20: Regionally Diversified West Fraser Revenue Mix
Regionally Diversified West Fraser Revenue Mix* • Expanding exposure to growth markets tied to U.S. housing and repair and remodeling • Addition of Norbord has also expanded UK/Europe exposure to be nearly 10% of revenue 2012: USD $3.0B** 2022: USD $9.7B UK/Europe 7% Canada Asia 16% UK/Europe Other
Slide 21: Realizing Growth and Geographic Diversification in Europe
Realizing Growth and Geographic Diversification in Europe • Europe EWP is driven by panel demand in the UK and Europe, which is de-linked from North American markets, tending to generate more stable financial results • Strong macro-headwinds in Europe led to weaker demand for wood panel products in
Slide 22: Serving Markets with Attractive Fundamentals
Serving Markets with Attractive Fundamentals
Slide 23: U.S. Housing Start Estimates
U.S. Housing Start Estimates (Thousands) 1,700 1,605 1,600 1,554 1,500 S ousing Starts (‘000s) 1,395 1,400 1,300 1,291 1,247 1,205 1,200 1,177 1,107 1,100 1,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F Actual Forecast Range (ex-High & Low) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, industry analys
Slide 24: Lumber Demand in Single Family Construction
Significant Lumber Demand in Single Family Construction is Derived from Wood Products that are Engineered* Non-Residential Other 5% New MF Residential 34% Industrial 23% North America Lumber End Use 2022 SF • Within new residential construction, single family (“SF”) housing consumes approximately 3x
Slide 25: U.S. Leading Indicator of Remodeling (R&R) Activity
U.S. Leading Indicator of Remodeling (R&R) Activity Predicting relatively stable and elevated Homeowner Improvements & Repairs Four-Quarter Moving Totals demand for R&R activity into 2024 Billions ($USD) 500 484 489 479 Homeowner Improvement & Repairs ($USD) 470 469 464 457 454 452 450 443 414 406 4
Slide 26: Lumber Consumption of Residential Improvements in U.S.
Lumber Consumption of Residential Improvements in U.S. (for periods with similar total housing starts) U.S. Lumber Consumption – Residential Improvement (billion board feet) Residential Improvement 43% of Total has grown in importance and 22.3 Lumber Consumption consumes ~55% more 26% of Total lumbe
Slide 27: OSB Consumption of Residential Improvement & Industrial Segments
OSB Consumption of Residential Improvement & Industrial Segments in U.S. (for periods with similar total housing starts) U.S. OSB End-user Consumption (billion square feet, 3/8-in basis) 2.2 10% of Total OSB Consumption Residential Improvement and Industrial have 1.1 6% of Total OSB increased in rel
Slide 28: Mass Timber – Another Driver of Sustainable Wood Product Demand
Mass Timber – Another Driver of Sustainable Wood Product Demand U.S. consumption demand from mass timber is projected to be between 0.7 – 2.1 Billion Board Feet (Bfbm) by 2035, representing the equivalent demand of up to ~175k additional new housing starts* Mass Timber – Projected U.S. Consumption D
Slide 29: Lumber and OSB Supply Overview
Lumber and OSB Supply Overview Lumber OSB • Aggregate North American production growth • It is an estimated three- to five-year process to constrained by log availability, particularly in B.C.; construct a greenfield OSB mill, typically followed it is an estimated two- to three-year process to by an
Slide 30: Illustrative Ecosystem of U.S. South Lumber Mill
Illustrative Ecosystem of U.S. South Lumber Mill By building a new sawmill adjacent to an existing mill we are able to utilize existing infrastructure and skilled labour, enabling a faster ramp-up while reducing financial, operational and execution risks Approximate resources for 250 MMfbm U.S. sout
Slide 31: Serving a Broad Distribution Network and Customer Base
Serving a Broad Distribution Network and Customer Base West Fraser serves thousands of delivery points and customers across North America; the majority of product shipments use rail to transport Canadian SPF and OSB to U.S. markets and trucks to transport SYP and OSB from mills in the U.S. south. We
Slide 32: Today's North American Lumber Supply
This is not 2005 – Today’s North American Lumber Supply 80 2.5 Low North American lumber production growth even with strong markets in 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2022; labour, equipment and log availability are 70 challenges to growth 2.0 60 U.S. Housing Starts (millions) Billion Board Feet 50 1.5 Reduction
Slide 33: North American Lumber Production in Housing Starts Equivalent
North American Lumber Production (2022) in Housing Starts Equivalent* 1.75 0.10 0.55 1.52 1.50 100,000 additional starts could U.S. Housing Starts (millions) require ~2.4Bfbm of additional 1.25 production (approximately 10 new sawmills) 1.00 0.40 0.75 0.35 0.50 0.25 0.22 0.00 B.C. Canada Other Canad
Slide 34: North American OSB Operating Capacity
North American OSB Operating Capacity* OSB Operating Capacity and U.S. Housing Starts 30 2.5 • One OSB mill was permanently closed in 2020 while a press fire at one mill in spring 2022 is expected to keep that mill out of commission until circa late 2023 25 2.0 • West Fraser re-started its OSB mill
Slide 35: North American OSB Capacity in Housing Starts Equivalent
North American OSB Capacity (2022) in Housing Starts Equivalent* 1.75 0.10 1.50 0.38 1.43 100,000 additional starts U.S. Housing Starts (millions) could require nearly 1 Bsf 1.25 (3/8-inch) of additional OSB capacity, which is more than 0.18 the capacity of a typical large- 1.00 scale greenfield OSB
Slide 36: Disciplined and Balanced Allocator of Capital
Disciplined and Balanced Allocator of Capital
Slide 37: Capital Allocation Priorities
Capital Allocation Priorities • Replace end-of-life assets • Maintain investment-grade rating • Maintain low-cost position • Maintain cash buffer to aid the • Strategically enhance pursuit of opportunistic M&A and product mix, productivity Reinvest Maintain larger-scale strategic growth and capacity
Slide 38: Capital Allocation Lookback
Capital Allocation Lookback • Multi year history of cash flow generation is strong • Significant investments in maintaining, expanding and improving the business at nearly ~40% of cash generated • Excess capital returned to shareholders of ~ 50% of cash flow, heavily weighted to buybacks, influenced
Slide 39: Share Repurchases
Share Repurchases Average repurchase price (CAD$): Cumulative Investment in Repurchases* (USD$ million) $5,000 $4,198 $4,223 2013 $44.60 $4,000 $3,000 $2,208 2014 $51.86 $2,000 $829 $890 $890 2015 $55.57 $1,000 $104 $151 $294 $307 $2 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q3-2023 2016
Slide 40: Lookback on West Fraser's Capital Reinvested
Lookback on West Fraser’s Capital Reinvested Return on Capital Employed (ROCE %)* 70% 61% 27% 25% 28% 24% 25% average 16% -10% -4% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Bloomberg, West Fraser analysis. Favorable ROCE trend and results * Note: ROCE = GAAP EBIT / Average (Total Assets – Current L
Slide 41: Liquidity
Liquidity ($millions) Available Liquidity* Scheduled Maturities (as of July 25, 2023) 4,000 1,200 3,000 900 West Fraser Timber is $USD Millions $USD Millions considered investment 2,000 600 grade by three leading 1,000 300 rating agencies. 0 0 Agency Rating Outlook 2019 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Slide 42: Scope, Scale and Expertise to Unlock Growth
Scope, Scale and Expertise to Unlock Growth
Slide 43: West Fraser's Growth Strategy
West Fraser’s Growth Strategy • Our objective is to be the premier wood building products company in North America, resulting in long-term value creation. • Our strategy to achieve this objective is to develop and maintain a highly disciplined organization relentlessly focused on continuous improvem
Slide 44: Mill Acquisition – Spray Lake Sawmills
Mill Acquisition – Spray Lake Sawmills Strategic Rationale • Planned purchase of sawmill with 155MMfbm annual lumber capacity; produces treated wood products, dimensional lumber and a variety of innovative wood residuals/biproducts • C$140M transaction includes two FMAs with total AAC of ~500k m3, p
Slide 45: Mill Divestitures – Slave Lake & Quesnel River BCTMP Mills
Mill Divestitures – Slave Lake & Quesnel River BCTMP Mills Strategic Rationale • Planned sale to Atlas Holdings; mills to be operated by Millar Western Forest Products, a more than 100-year-old West Fraser Slave Lake Pulp Canadian forest products company Mill – located in Slave Lake, • US$120M trans
Slide 46: Mill Divestiture – Hinton UKP Pulp Mill
Mill Divestiture – Hinton UKP Pulp Mill Strategic Rationale • Planned sale to Mondi Group plc, a global leader with the capability and track record of investment and execution to optimize the Hinton Pulp mill’s potential • Transaction allows West Fraser to further focus on key growth areas • Long-te
Slide 47: Brownfield Modernization – Henderson, Texas
Brownfield Modernization – Henderson, Texas Project Overview • ~$255M investment with latest technology to reduce unit costs, improve product flexibility and working conditions • Increases capacity ~2x to ~275 MMfbm; construction has begun with ramp-up start now expected Q4-24 Financial Highlights •
Slide 48: Positioned to Benefit from Strong ESG Fundamentals
Positioned to Benefit from Strong ESG Fundamentals
Slide 49: Building with Wood Offers Significant Environmental Benefits
Building with Wood Offers Significant Environmental Benefits Carbon Emissions and Carbon Storage Capacities of 1 tonne (t) In Addition to Sequestering Carbon, of Cement, Steel, and Timber Building Materials Wood Product Manufacturing Has a Lighter Carbon Footprint 1.04 • West Fraser is positioned to
Slide 50: The 2022 Sustainability Report
The 2022 SUSTAINABILITY REPORT is now available Scan the QR code to access the report 50
Slide 51: Sustainability Report
Sustainability Report Our Sustainability Report tells the story of a pivotal year of growth for West Fraser. As a company founded almost 70 years ago, we understand the importance, and necessity, of doing the right thing for the environment, our communities, and our employees while sustainably and p
Slide 52: 2022 Sustainability Report Highlights
2022 Sustainability Report Highlights 52
Slide 53: ESG Ratings
ESG Ratings Ratings 2021 ESG Rating 2022 ESG Rating Performance Trend Provider Climate Change: D Climate Change: B- Forests: F Forests: B- Good Improving Water Security: F Water Security: C 49/100 Not applicable Bronze metal (top 50% of Good -- assessed companies) C- C Average Improving AA A Good Im
Slide 54: Validated GHG Emissions Targets
Validated GHG Emissions Targets Science Based Targets initiative (“SBTi”) supports companies in establishing ambitious climate action targets West Fraser is committed to materially reducing GHG emissions SBTi has now validated our scope 1, 2 & 3 targets 54
Slide 55: Reducing GHG Emissions Across Our Operations
Reducing GHG Emissions Across Our Operations SCOPE 1 - Direct GHG emissions SCOPE 2 - Indirect greenhouse SCOPE 3 - Other indirect that occur from sources owned or gas emissions from consumption emissions, such as extraction and controlled by West Fraser. of purchasedMDF electricity, heat or Renewab
Slide 56: Attractive Record of Creating Shareholder Value
Attractive Record of Creating Shareholder Value
Slide 57: Performance vs. Peers and Relevant Indices
Performance vs. Peers and Relevant Indices $8 Enterprise Value (US$ billions) +206% $6 +129% $4 12% $2 +391% $0 2005 YE Q2-2023 West Fraser Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Source: Bloomberg Annualized Total Shareholder Return (US$, dividends reinvested) Jan-01-06* to Oct-16-23 10% 9.0% 9.5% 8% 6% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7
Slide 58: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 59: West Fraser is North America's Largest Lumber Producer
West Fraser is North America’s Largest Lumber Producer West Fraser 10% West Fraser 2022 Capacity 6.7 Billion feet Weyerhaeuser British 8% Columbia 22% Canfor 7% 2022 N.A. Other 50% Industry Production 6% Interfor 59 Bfbm US South 54% 5% Sierra Pacific Alberta 4% 24% Georgia-Pacific Paper Excellence
Slide 60: West Fraser is the World's Largest OSB Producer
West Fraser is the World’s Largest OSB Producer West Fraser OSB Capacity by Region Europe 17% US North American OSB Industry* 46% European OSB Industry 9 Bsf-3/8" Other Other Martco 6% Canada West Smartply 14% 7% 37% Fraser 4% Kronospan Huber 29% Sonae- 45% 9% Arauco Industry 4% Industry Tolko Capac
Slide 61: North America Lumber and EWP Adjusted EBITDA Margin
West Fraser North America Lumber and EWP Adjusted EBITDA Margin1 NA Lumber 10-year Average: 21% NA EWP* (proforma) 10-year Average: 28% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021* 2022 North America Lumber North America EWP (proforma) Note: Lumber adjusted
Slide 62: Lumber Supply Conditions
Lumber Supply Conditions Total North America Lumber Supply (Production) North America Lumber Supply (Production) – 2022 20 B.C. 15% U.S. South Billion Board Feet 15 36% Alberta 10 6% 5 Canada Other U.S. Other 17% 0 26% Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'
Slide 63: OSB Supply Conditions
OSB Supply Conditions Total North America OSB Supply (Production) Wood supply shortage led to permanent 7 closure of one B.C. mill in 2020; two other Billion Square Feet 3/8” basis 6 mills re-started in 2021 (Quebec and B.C.) 5 while one is currently in start-up phase 4 (South Carolina) and the othe
Slide 64: Demand Conditions for Wood Building Products
Demand Conditions for Wood Building Products U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted) Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity 175 $500 18% Improvements and Repairs Thousands of Units 150 $450 15% 4 Qtr. Moving rate 125 $B 4 Qtr. Moving 100 $400 12% of Change Annual Totals: 75 2020: 1,380k $350
Slide 65: Analyst Coverage
Analyst Coverage Organization Analyst Name Contact BMO Capital Markets Ketan Mamtora (212) 883-5121 ketan.mamtora@bmo.com CIBC World Markets Hamir Patel (604) 331-3047 hamir.patel@cibc.com ERA Forest Products John Cooney (604) 267-3021 jcooney@era-research.com Research Raymond James Daryl Swetlishof
Slide 66: Analyst Estimates – 2023
Analyst Estimates – 2023 (SPF & SYP US$/Mfbm; OSB US$/Msf) 2023E SPF W 2x4 2023E SYP W 2x4 2023E OSB NC 7/16” TD $385 RJ $425 BMO $290 CIBC $387 CIBC $426 CIBC $334 RBC $390 ERA $430 RBC $345 ERA $396 RBC $440 RJ $350 RJ $425 BMO $440 TD $354 BMO $444 TD $463 ERA $359 Source: Analyst reports 66
Slide 67: Modeling EBITDA
Modeling EBITDA Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (Based on 2022 annual shipment volumes - $ millions) Factor Variation Change in pre-tax earnings1 Lumber price $10 (per Mfbm) 59 NA OSB price $10 (per Msf) 58 Europe OSB price £10 (per Msf) 9 U.S. / CAD $ exchange rate2 $0.01 (per $ CAD
Slide 68: Estimated Variable Production Costs for North American Lumber Industry
Estimated Variable Production Costs for North American Lumber Industry Variable Lumber Costs (2020-2022) $USD/MBF 400 0 B.C. Interior US West Coast Quebec Ontario US South Net Delivered Wood Costs Manufacturing Costs Source: FEA, West Fraser analysis. Lumber Manufacturing Costs (2020-2022) 100% Misc
Slide 69: Estimated Variable Production Costs for North American OSB Industry
Estimated Variable Production Costs for North American OSB Industry Variable OSB Costs (2020-2022) $ SD/MSF 3/8” 200 0 US North US South Western Canada Eastern Canada Net Delivered Wood Costs Manufacturing Costs Source: FEA, West Fraser analysis. OSB Manufacturing Costs (2020-2022) 100% Misc. 18% 25
Slide 70: West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. These materials have been prepared by Management of the Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company
Slide 71: External Information, Currency and Terminology
External Information: Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any external source, it should not be interpreted that West Fraser has adopted or endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the information presented herein is based on or derived from st