Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Technical Presentation (August 2017)
19 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's technical presentation, Aug 21, 2017
Slide 1: Strategic reserve volume determination for winter 2018-19
Strategic reserve volume determination for winter 2018-19 Public consultation on input data
Slide 2: Contents
This presentation accompanies the Excel document containing the input data for the base case analysis done in the context of the volume determination of strategic reserve for winter 2018-19, with an indication for winters 2019-20 and 2020-21. The data was elaborated by Elia in cooperation with the F
Slide 3: Belgian Production park
Belgian Production park Proposal for hypotheses
Slide 4: Installed capacity Solar PV
Solar PV – numbers based on information received from regions Installed capacity Solar PV Hist. data (31-dec) Forecast 6,000 4,966 Installed capacity [MW] 5,000 4,356 3,881 4,000 3,526 2,986 3,068 3,101 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Winter 4 S.R. 2018-19
Slide 5: Installed capacity onshore wind
Onshore wind – numbers based on information received from regions Installed capacity onshore wind Hist. data (31-dec) Forecast 3,000 2,663 2,414 Installed capacity [MW] 2,500 2,165 1,915 2,000 1,460 1,580 1,500 1,233 1,000 500 - 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Winter 5 S.R. 2
Slide 6: Installed capacity offshore wind
Offshore wind – Elia best estimate Installed capacity offshore wind Forecast Hist. data (31-dec) 2500 2,205 Installed capacity [MW] 2000 1,576 1500 1,051 1000 859 706 712 712 500 0 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Winter 6 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 7: Installed capacity biomass and waste
Biomass – Elia production database, combined with growth forecasts provided by the regions Installed capacity biomass & waste Elia database Biomass CIPU Biomass non-CIPU Waste CIPU Waste non-CIPU Extra biomass non-CIPU (cumul.) 1,400 46 80 Installed capacity [MW] 1,200 18 57 57 57 57 1,000 281 281 2
Slide 8: Installed capacity CHP non-CIPU
CHP non-CIPU – Elia production database CHP non-CIPU 1,300 1,231 1,231 1,231 1,200 Installed capacity [MW] 1,111 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Winter 8 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 9: Installed capacity Hydro RoR
Hydro RoR – information provided by the regions 130 120 120 114 117 111 Installed capacity [MW] 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Winter 9 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 10: Nuclear availability: full availability assumed in base case
Nuclear availability: Full availability is assumed in the base case 10 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 11: Forced outage rates
Forced outage rates – update for period 2007-2016 Numbers include outage of Tihange 1 starting in September 2016 2007-2016 2006-2015 16% 14.6% 14% 13.6% 12% 10.4% Forced Outage rate 10% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7% 8% 6.7% 6.5% 5.3% 6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 3.6% 3.4% 4% 1.6% 1.6% 2% 0% Classic CHP CCGT GT Pumped storage
Slide 12: Forced outage rate evolution
Forced outage rate evolution Nuclear forced outage rate CCGT forced outage rate 12% 18% 16% 10% 14% 8% 12% Forced Outage rate Forced Outage rate 10% 6% 8% 4% 6% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12 S.R. 2018-1
Slide 13: CIPU conventional units
CIPU conventional units See detailed list in Excel file for assumptions. 13 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 14: BE Demand, Market Response & Balancing Reserves
BE Demand, Market Response & Balancing Reserves
Slide 15: Demand evolution
The latest forecasts (July 2017) from IHS Markit have been used, incorporating all Demand evolution market insights up until June 2017. Historical values Normalised historical values Normalised historical values Base case normalised forecast Base case normalised forecast 2017-18 base case forecast 9
Slide 16: Market response
Market response Results from the “Market Response” subgroup of the TF iSR will be used. 16 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA See http://www.elia.be/~/media/files/Elia/Products-and-services/Strategic-Reserve/Elia_Market%20Response_Implementation%20report.pdf
Slide 17: Market response – activation constraints
Market response – activation constraints Results from the “Market Response” subgroup of the TF iSR will be used. 17 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 18: Balancing reserves on Belgian production
Balancing reserves on Belgian production FCR (R1) aFRR (R2) mFRR (R3) 600 Part of reserves on BE production [MW] 500 400 358 363 352 357 300 200 100 144 139 155 165 0 20 20 20 20 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 18 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA
Slide 19: Example: Flow based typical day
Example: Flow based typical day 1 (10-12-2015 - Weekday) 24 “hourly” Domains for typical day 1 shown here flow-based domains by example. See Excel document containing the input data for all typical days hourly domains. 19 S.R. 2018-19: PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON INPUT DATA