Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML
Asml Holding Nv — Investor Day (November 2024)
31 slides from Asml Holding Nv's investor day presentation, Nov 18, 2024
Slide 1: End Markets, Wafer Demand and Lithography Spending
Public Amit Harchandani ASML Investor Day Veldhoven, The Netherlands November 14, 2024 Senior Vice President & Head of Corporate Marketing Small Talk 2024 End Markets, Wafer Demand and Lithography Spending Exhibit 99.3
Slide 2: End Markets, Wafer Demand & Litho Spending: Key messages
Public End Markets, Wafer Demand & Litho Spending The long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains promising, given the role of semis as mission-critical enablers of multiple megatrends. In particular, we believe that the emergence of AI creates a significant opportunity. As a result, we
Slide 3: Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML
Public Estimate growth of our Installed Base business Installed Base Management Model assumptions Start with end markets Translate to worldwide litho spending, convert to ASML share Litho spend Convert to wafer demand: High – Moderate – Low scenarios Wafer demandEnd markets Scenarios → High → Modera
Slide 4: Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML
Public Page 4 Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML This opportunity is driven by an interplay of market forces, tech choices & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: ASML analysis
Slide 5: Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML
Public Page 5 MARKETS Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML This opportunity is driven by an interplay of market forces, tech choices & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: ASML analysis
Slide 6: Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML
Public Page 6 MARKETS T E C H N O L O G Y Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML This opportunity is driven by an interplay of market forces, tech choices & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: ASML analysis
Slide 7: Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML
Public Page 7 SCENARIOS P R O B A B IL IT Y HIGHMODERATELOW Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML This opportunity is driven by an interplay of market forces, tech choices & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: ASML analysis
Slide 8: Our model to determine the long-term opportunity for ASML
Public Page 8 Scenarios → High → Moderate → Low 2030 Estimate growth of our Installed Base business Installed Base Management Model assumptions Start with end markets Translate to worldwide litho spending, convert to ASML share Litho spend Convert to wafer demand: High – Moderate – Low scenarios Waf
Slide 9: End Markets
Public Wafer Demand Lithography Spending End Markets
Slide 10: The long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains promising
Public The long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains promising Semiconductors serve as mission-critical enablers of multiple megatrends across society Page 10 Climate change and resource scarcity Social and economic shifts Automation Healthcare, medical tech Technological sovereignty
Slide 11: We are particularly encouraged by the rapid progress in Artificial Intelligence
Public Page 11 We are particularly encouraged by the rapid progress in Artificial Intelligence We also see AI driving an increase in semiconductor sales as a % of global GDP, in the coming years Data AI power compute (+memory) Mainstream edge compute Sensors Connecting IoT AI Source: ASML analysis,
Slide 12: Servers, Datacenters & Storage as the key initial beneficiary of AI
Public We see Servers, Datacenters & Storage as the key initial beneficiary of AI As a result, we now expect the semi sales associated with this end market crossing $350bn by 2030 AI Servers will account for a small share of overall units AI Servers will drive most of the growth & account for an inc
Slide 13: Semi sales expected to grow at 9% CAGR (2025-2030) & surpass $1tn by 2030
Public Semi sales expected to grow at 9% CAGR (2025-2030) & surpass $1tn by 2030 Sharp increase in growth for Servers, Datacenters & Storage offsets most of moderation elsewhere Page 13 Smartphone ($bn) Wired & wireless Infrastructure ($bn) Automotive ($bn) Personal Computing ($bn) Servers, Datacent
Slide 14: Wafer Demand
Public End Markets Lithography Spending Wafer Demand
Slide 15: Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments
Public Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments Page 15Source: ASML analysisNovember 14, 2024
Slide 16: Wafer demand growth of ~760Kwspm/yr. at CMD 2022
Public Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments At CMD 2022, we saw a healthy overall wafer demand growth of ~760Kwspm/yr. (2025-2030) Page 16 CMD 2022 Million wafer starts/month (Mwspm) 6.7 8.6 2.1 3.21.9 2.2 2.1 2.6 2025 2030 Growth 2025-2030 (Kwspm/yr.) Mature Logic (>28nm)
Slide 17: Overall wafer demand growth of ~780Kwspm/yr. (2025-2030)
Public Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments Off a lower 2025 level, we now expect overall wafer demand growth of ~780Kwspm/yr. (2025-2030) Page 17 CMD 2022 Million wafer starts/month (Mwspm) 6.7 8.6 2.1 3.21.9 2.2 2.1 2.6 2025 2030 Growth 2025-2030 (Kwspm/yr.) Mature Logic
Slide 18: New Logic classification: Mainstream and Advanced Logic
Public Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments Going forward, we will classify Logic as Mainstream Logic (>7nm) and Advanced Logic (<=7nm) Page 18 CMD 2022 Million wafer starts/month (Mwspm) 6.7 8.6 2.1 3.21.9 2.2 2.1 2.6 2025 2030 Growth 2025-2030 (Kwspm/yr.) Mature Logic (>2
Slide 19: AI expected to drive stronger DRAM wafer demand growth towards 2030
Public AI expected to drive stronger DRAM wafer demand growth towards 2030 We estimate that DRAM demand from AI Servers alone could reach ~1 million wspm by 2030 Page 19 Nvidia AI scaling roadmap: rapidly increasing HBM content AI-driven server DRAM wafer demand 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 20272020 202
Slide 20: Correlating wafer demand back to transistor & bit growth
Public Correlating wafer demand back to transistor & bit growth in the coming years We anticipate healthy growth rates over the period 2025-2030 for Advanced Logic & DRAM Page 20 Advanced Logic transistor growth 2025 2030 DRAM bit growth November 14, 2024 Source: ASML analysis 32% NAND bit growth 20
Slide 21: Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand
Public Page 21 Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: ASML analysis
Slide 22: Technology sovereignty remains a tailwind with broadening incentives
Public Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand & strategic considerations Page 22 • $52bn investment • Tax credits US CHIPS and Science Act • $26bn investment • Tax credits JAPAN Strategy for Semiconductors • Government support via tax credits and loans SOUTH KOREA-Semiconductor Strategy
Slide 23: Supply security evident from fabs coming online through 2027
Public Secondly, the increased emphasis on supply security is evident from fabs coming online through 2027 Page 23 Europe / Middle EastAmericas Asia 1218 78 Coming fabs per region Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: SEMI (November 2
Slide 24: Foundry competition and investments by top-3 customers at CMD 2022
Public Lastly, at CMD 2022, we flagged foundry competition & talked about investments by our top-3 customers Page 24 U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A. Europe China Taiwan Korea Japan Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand & strategic considerations November 14, 2024 Source: Public announcements, ASML
Slide 25: Competition still a tailwind as more customers announce plans
Public On balance, we still see competition as a tailwind today, as more customers announce their plans Page 25 U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A. Europe Europe China Taiwan Korea Korea Japan Japan Japan Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand & strategic considerations November 14, 2024
Slide 26: 5-8% extra overall capacity by 2030 on top of demand-driven additions
Public Wafer capacity will be driven by both wafer demand & strategic considerations As a result, we expect 5-8% extra overall capacity by 2030 on top of demand-driven additions Page 26 11.2 15.1 2025 2030 5-8% 5% • Tech sovereignty leading to less efficient use of the installed capacity as countrie
Slide 27: Lithography Spending
Public Wafer Demand End Markets Lithography Spending
Slide 28: Advanced logic & DRAM shrink expected to drive further layers & spending
Public Advanced logic & DRAM shrink is expected to drive further layers & spending Increase in exposures, combined with wafer volume translates into double-digit EUV spending CAGRs Page 28 Advanced Logic: Average # of Total EUV Exposures* EUV litho spending CAGR (2025-2030): 10-20% November 14, 2024
Slide 29: End Markets, Wafer Demand & Litho Spending: Key messages
Public End Markets, Wafer Demand & Litho Spending The long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains promising, given the role of semis as mission-critical enablers of multiple megatrends. In particular, we believe that the emergence of AI creates a significant opportunity. As a result, we
Slide 30: Forward Looking Statements
Public Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to our strategy, plans and expected trends, including trends in end m
Slide 31: Thank You
Public November 14, 2024 Page 31 THANK YOU