Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — Investor Presentation (December 2024)
41 slides from Blue Bird's investor presentation, December 2024
Slide 1: Blue Bird Corporation Investor Presentation December 2024
“A Leader in zero- and low-emission transportation” BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) Investor Presentation December 2024
Slide 2: Important Disclaimers: Forward Looking Statements
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Adjusted EBITDA is def
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Investment Highlights School Bus Industry Overview Company & Product Highlights FY2025 Objectives Growth Runway 4
Slide 5: Investment Highlights
Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market position in alternative power and ele
Slide 6: School Bus Industry Overview
School Bus Industry Overview 6
Slide 7: Industry Highlights
Industry Highlights OEMs School Bus Customers Lion ~3,400 Contractors 500k+ Thomas Blue Bird ~10,000 School Districts IC High barriers to entry Highly specialized product -- Complex state and customer requirements -- Dealer and service network -- Customer relationship driven business Demand Drivers
Slide 8: Type C & D School Bus Industry
Type C & D School Bus Industry ▪ Industry avg size is 30,500 new units annually based on Polk registrations ▪ Total fleet of school buses is ~515,000 units and average age is about 10 years ▪ Industry size is driven by: ▪ Number of school age children ▪ Age of existing fleet – most states set 15 yea
Slide 9: Fleet Age Profile Supports Elevated Replacement Demand
Fleet Age Profile Supports Elevated Replacement Demand ~570K School Buses on the Road as of March 2024 Low replacements due to 40,000 supply chain challenges Average fleet age ~11 years 35,000 30,000 25,000 47%+ of School Buses are 20,000 10 years and older! 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Slide 10: Company & Product Highlights
Company & Product Highlights 10
Slide 11: Introduction to Blue Bird
Introduction to Blue Bird ▪ Headquartered in Macon, Georgia Dedicated Manufacturing Micro Bird JV Facility ▪ Leader in alternative power; #1 in electric & propane school buses (Drummondville, Quebec, Canada) ▪ 60%+ of Blue Bird sales are non-diesel; <10-20% for competitors Footprint Parts Distributi
Slide 12: Proven Leadership in Clean Technologies
Proven Leadership in Clean Technologies ▪ Proven track record of leadership in new technologies; more than 60% of unit sales are non- diesel ▪ Leader in electric and propane- powered school buses; the future of school transportation ▪ $5B of Federal funding secured in the infrastructure bill for ele
Slide 13: Significant Federal Funding for EV School Buses
Significant Federal Funding for EV School Buses The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021 authorizes EPA to offer rebates and grants to replace existing New Program announced, utilizing school buses with clean / zero-emission models – $5B Funding over 5 years Inflation Reduction Act funding EPA CSB
Slide 14: Federal EV Programs: Expected Order and Delivery Timing
Federal EV Programs: Expected Order and Delivery Timing FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 FY2027+ EPA Round 1 Complete EPA Round 2 Application Award Order Delivery EPA Round 3 Application Award Order Delivery EPA Round 4 Application Award Order Delivery EPA Round 5 To Be Announced CHDV Application Award Order De
Slide 15: Build Complete Ecosystem for EV School Bus Deployment
Build Complete Ecosystem for EV School Bus Deployment END OF LIFE ASSESSMENT Determine recycling program for Determine what bus best fits the used batteries after use customer’s needs based on terrain, climate and route planning SERVICE & SUPPORT FINANCING Connect with dealer and EV system Identify
Slide 16: Fueling Our EV Long-Term Growth: Fleet-as-a-Service JV
Fueling Our EV Long-Term Growth: Fleet-as-a-Service JV ➢ Formed “Clean Bus Solutions” – 50/50 JV with Generate Capital and Blue Bird to accelerate electric school bus adoption; exclusive to Blue Bird customers and dealers ➢ Buses purchased By JV through dealer network ➢ Offers affordable monthly ser
Slide 17: FY2025 Objectives
FY2025 Objectives 17
Slide 18: FY2025 Priorities Align with Our Strategy
FY2025 Priorities Align with Our Strategy Leader in Safety Best Great Products Service & Features Sustained Profitable Growth 8% 14% 15%+ EBITDA Margin Highest Competitive Quality & Cost Durability Alt Power Leader Our core strategies drive our plans towards profitable growth 18
Slide 19: FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Raised to $200M and 13.8% Margin
FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Raised to $200M and 13.8% Margin Tailwinds FY25 Scenarios Headwinds Downside New Guidance Upside • Strong demand Supply Chain • Supply chain • Stable Gross Margins Units 9,000 9,250 9,500 • Labor Costs (USW) t/o EV Units 1,000 1,150 1,300 • Propane exclusive • Material Co
Slide 20: FY2025 Quarterly Guidance – Product Mix Driving Growth
FY2025 Quarterly Guidance – Product Mix Driving Growth Rev. ~$300 ~$350 ~$400 $400+ $1,400 - $1,500 $M 200 1 Adj. EBITDA ✓ Growing EV sales, and Revenue in the $300M - $400M range 190 - 210 ✓ Growing Adj. EBITDA in the $40M - $60M range ✓ Consistent and growing levels of 13%-14% Adj. EBITDA 50 - 55
Slide 21: Blue Bird Awarded $80M MESC Grant by DOE for New Plant
Blue Bird Awarded $80M MESC Grant by DOE for New Plant ▪ New 600k sq.ft. Type D / EV production facility in Fort Valley, GA ▪ Total Investment ~$160M, 50% funded by Blue Bird ▪ Build-out 2 years, launch expected by mid CY 2027 ▪ FCF CAPEX impact in FY25 of up to $50M ▪ Raises total capacity on one s
Slide 22: FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Raised to $200M and 13.8% Margin
FY2025 Full Year Guidance – Raised to $200M and 13.8% Margin FY2024 FY2025 FY2025 B/(W) $ Millions Actuals Aug Updated Vs. Prior Year Guidance Guidance Net Revenue $1,347 $1,400 - $1,500 $1,400 - $1,500 $53 - $153 Adj. EBITDA1 $183 $180 - $200 $190 - $210 $7 - $27 Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $99 N/A $40 -
Slide 23: Wrap-Up: Record Profit Outlook in FY2025 & Beyond
Wrap-Up: Record Profit Outlook in FY2025 & Beyond NA School Bus Industry Thousands Bookings 3%+ = ~9,250 units Class 6-7* 39.5 39.0 38.1 36.8 37.2 35.8 36.1 33.3 Revenue 8%+ = ~$1.45 Billion 29.6 30.5 29.1 26.4 25.7 ~6% Adj. EBITDA 9% = ~$200 Million CAGR Adj. EBITDA 20 bps+ = ~14% Margin EV Booking
Slide 24: Solid Growth Runway
Solid Growth Runway 24
Slide 25: We Confirm Our Mid Term Outlook to 14% EBITDA
We Confirm Our Mid Term Outlook to 14% EBITDA Revenue $M Diesel Gas/Propane EV 2024 2025 Outlook Outlook Rev. Units Mid Term Long Term (2028+) Actual Updated $M 11,317 11,646 Guidance 12,000+ 12,000 11,017 11,000 3,000 10,000 10,000 8,878 9,000 9,250 2,500 8,514 8,000 6,679 6,822 $1,850 $2,000 2,000
Slide 26: We Confirm Our Mid Term Outlook to 14% EBITDA
We Confirm Our Mid Term Outlook to 14% EBITDA Revenue $M Diesel Gas/Propane EV QTR Full YR 2024 2025 Outlook Outlook Rev. Units Actual Updated Mid Term Long Term (2028+) $M 2,466 Guidance 12,000+ 2,500 2,254 2,151 400 12,000 11,000 3,000 2,137 2,116 2,129 10,000 2,000 10,000 9,000 9,250 2,500 $350 3
Slide 27: Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights
Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market
Slide 28: Appendix
Appendix 28
Slide 29: Key FY2024 Takeaways: All-Time Record Year
Key FY2024 Takeaways: All-Time Record Year Record Profit; Beat Full Year Guidance and Raised Long-Term Outlook Robust Market Demand, Increasing Order Share and Continuing Strong Backlog Supply Chain Largely Stable; Highly Engaged with Two Key Constrained Suppliers Substantially Higher Bus Price Comp
Slide 30: FY2024 Financial Results and Key Business Highlights
FY2024 Financial Results and Key Business Highlights FY2024 Results Signed first collective BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS bargaining agreement with UNITS NET Alt. Power sales USW SOLD SALES mix of 58% Strong Selected for 9,000 $1,347M $735M Backlog of $80M grant from the DOE +486 vs.’23 +
Slide 31: FY2024 Q4 and Full Year Record Financial Results
FY2024 Q4 and Full Year Record Financial Results FY2024 Q4 Results FY2024 Full Year Results FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS UNITS NET UNITS NET SOLD SALES SOLD SALES 2,466 $350M 9,000 $1,347M +350 vs.’23 +$47M vs.’23 +486 vs.’23 +$214M vs.’23 Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA FCF
Slide 32: Fourth Quarter Income Statement
Fourth Quarter Income Statement ($ Millions) FY24-Q4 FY23-Q4 B/(W) Unit Volume 2,466 2,116 350 Unit Backlog 4,846 4,559 287 Net Revenue $350.2 $303.0 $47.2 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $131.2 $131.2 $- Gross Margin 17.0% 16.5% 50 bps Adj. Net Income1 $25.8 $21.3 $4.5 Adj. EBITDA1 $41.3 $40.7 $0.6 Adj. EBI
Slide 33: FY23-Q4 to FY24-Q4 Adj. EBITDA Walk
FY23-Q4 to FY24-Q4 Adj. EBITDA Walk 1 Adj. EBITDA ($M) +0.6 Unit Volumes 3.5 FY23-Q4 2,116 11.0 0.9 FY24-Q4 2,466 One-time Delta 350 (1.7) Micro Bird Higher Rev. 41.3 40.7 Plant Labor and Margins JV EBITDA t/o EV Volumes FY23-Q4 171 Volume, Costs (USW) (13.1) FY24-Q4 84 SG&A and Delta (87) Pricing E
Slide 34: Full Year Income Statement
Full Year Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2024 FY2023 B/(W) Unit Volume 9,000 8,514 486 Unit Backlog 4,846 4,559 287 Net Revenue $1,347.2 $1,132.8 $214.4 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $138.1 $121.5 $16.6 Gross Margin 19.0% 12.3% 670 bps Adj. Net Income1 $115.3 $34.5 $80.8 Adj. EBITDA1 $182.9 $87.9 $95.0 Ad
Slide 35: FY2023 to FY2024 Adj. EBITDA Walk: $95M YoY Improvement
FY2023 to FY2024 Adj. EBITDA Walk: $95M YoY Improvement 1 Adj. EBITDA ($M) +95 Unit Volumes 120 5 6 FY2023 8,514 FY2024 9,000 183 Delta 486 (7) Micro Bird Higher Rev. JV EBITDA (28) Plant and Margins t/o EV Volumes Labor and SG&A and FY2023 546 FY2024 704 OH Costs Engineering Delta 158 (USW) 88 Pric
Slide 36: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Summary
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Summary ($ Millions) FY2024 FY2023 B/(W) Cash $127.7 $79.0 $48.7 Debt $(95.0) $(130.3) $35.3 Liquidity $271.0 $163.4 $107.6 Operating Cash Flow $111.1 $119.9 $(8.8) Adj. Free Cash Flow1 $98.9 $121.1 $(22.2) Trade Working Capital* $(32.4) $36.4 $(68.8) Strong Operating Cas
Slide 37: Working Capital – Dealer vs. Fleet / GSA Customer Segment
Working Capital – Dealer vs. Fleet / GSA Customer Segment Dealer Sales Flow RAW Inv. WIP Inv. FG Inv. BB Cash Transit PDI Customer (AP) Dealer Floor Plan (~2 days) Fleet / GSA Sales Flow RAW Inv. Customer WIP Inv. FG Inv. Transit PDI BB Cash (AP) (AR) 1-2 weeks 1-4 weeks 30+ days Unit sold 6 – 12+ w
Slide 38: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation 38
Slide 39: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation 39
Slide 40: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation 40
Slide 41: Investor Relations Contact Information
Investor Relations Contact Information Mark Benfield Mark.Benfield@Blue-Bird.com 41