BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — ONS 2004 Conference
12 slides from BP's conference presentation, Aug 24, 2004
Slide 1: Can LNG Displace North Sea Gas?
Can LNG Displace North Sea Gas? Anne C. Quinn Group Vice President – Gas, Power & Renewables ONS 2004 Conference 24-27 August 2004 Stavanger, Norway
Slide 2: Outline
Outline z North Sea Gas Prospectivity z European Gas Supply-Demand Balance z Role of LNG z Long-Term View
Slide 3: UK in Decline, Norway to Plateau Post 2010
North Sea Gas Prospectivity UK in Decline, Norway to Plateau Post 2010 Ormen Lange • 20+ bn boe remaining resource in UKCS, but UK will be net gas importer in the near future. • Significant remaining resource in NOCS, but Nyhamna pace of development is driven by access to market. UK and Norwegian Ga
Slide 4: Lots of New Demand, but at What Price?
European Gas Supply-Demand Balance Lots of New Demand, but at What Price? European Demand Demand growth 2000 - 2015 800 700 • Average growth of 2.5+% p.a., or Others 600 250 bcma 500 Turkey NL bcma 400 Spain • Power sector expected to drive Italy 300 demand growth France 200 Germany 100 UK • Key unc
Slide 5: Supply Through Europe's Five Gas Corridors
European Gas Supply-Demand Balance Supply Through Europe’s Five Gas Corridors Existing 4th Corridor Norway 5th Corridor: LNG Russia LNG Caspian Middle East N. Africa
Slide 6: LNG – The Fifth Corridor
Role of LNG LNG – The Fifth Corridor Existing regas terminals Advantages of LNG to Europe Potential new regas terminals • Increase in number of sources of supply: Egypt, Trinidad, Nigeria, Middle East, etc. • Diversification of supply (e.g., Spain) • Competitive cost of supply • Replacement of decli
Slide 7: LNG versus Pipeline Gas
Role of LNG LNG versus Pipeline Gas Cost of Supply to UK Border Pipeline LNG Potential Export/ Excise Tax Transportation Regasification Transportation Upstream cost FOB incl. upstream & return cost and return New New Algeria Qatar Egypt Norway Russia LNG LNG LNG Source: Wood Mackenzie, CERA, BP
Slide 8: Competing for Europe's Largest Gas Market
Role of LNG Competing for Europe’s Largest Gas Market UK Seasonal Demand Profile 2003 2015 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 bcm bcm 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D UKCS Production Pipeline Gas Storage Withdrawal IUK Imports UK Demand LNG Storage Injection IUK Exports
Slide 9: Why First Matters: Isle-of-Grain LNG
Role of LNG Why First Matters: Isle-of-Grain LNG Bacton Milford Haven Isle of Grain Zeebrugge • Short lead time gives timing advantage. • 2005 Start-up addresses tight UK supply/demand balance in 2005-2008. • Capacity position enables early mover in the next generation of import projects.
Slide 10: LNG to Europe is Competitive in Mid and Long Term
Long Term View LNG to Europe is Competitive in Mid and Long Term European Supply-Demand 800 700 Supply sources 600 from further afield: bcma 500 Az., Kaz., Turkey, Uzb. LNG 400 Russia 300 200 Indigenous and adjacent supply 100 sources 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 • Beyond 2010, Europe will look further afi
Slide 11: Summary
Summary z Europe will need a lot of gas; the North Sea enjoys an advantaged position. z LNG has been transformed and is now cost competitive with long distance sources of pipeline gas. z In the near term, periods of excess supply will put pressure on long-term contracts and producer margins. z In th
Slide 12: Can LNG Displace North Sea Gas?
Can LNG Displace North Sea Gas? Anne C. Quinn Group Vice President – Gas, Power & Renewables ONS 2004 Conference 24-27 August 2004 Stavanger, Norway