Delta Air Lines, Inc. · NYSE:DAL
Delta Air Lines — Investor Day (June 2023)
69 slides from Delta Air Lines's investor day presentation, Jun 27, 2023
Slide 1: Delta Beyond 2023 Investor Day
Delta Beyond 2023 Investor Day June 27, 2023 1
Slide 2: Julie Stewart
Julie Stewart VP INVESTOR RELATIONS 2
Slide 3: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Statements made in this presentation that are not historical facts, including statements regarding our estimates, expectations, beliefs, intentions, projections, goals, aspirations, commitments or strategies for the future, should be considered “forward-looking statements” under the Secu
Slide 4: Today's Presenters
Today’s Presenters Ed Bastian Glen Hauenstein Allison Ausband Chief Executive Officer President EVP & Chief Customer Experience Officer Peter Carter Ranjan Goswami Dwight James Dan Janki EVP External Affairs SVP Customer SVP Customer EVP & Chief Financial Experience Design Engagement & Loyalty Offic
Slide 5: Ed Bastian
Ed Bastian CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER 5
Slide 6: Key Investor Takeaways
Key Investor Takeaways Best-in-class people and culture underpin our trusted brand that transcends the industry Constructive industry backdrop with structural demand tailwinds and multi-year supply constraints Unique opportunities to grow earnings by leveraging brand strength, competitive advantages
Slide 7: Constructive Industry Backdrop
Constructive Industry Backdrop Air Travel Revenue Returning to Long-Term Trend Industry Revenue to, from and within U.S. as % of GDP 1.3% Historical Average 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% >$300B of missing demand Pent-up demand for air travel not yet satisfied 0.8% Employment remains strong 0.7% Evolving consumer t
Slide 8: Spend Shift To Services Continues
Spend Shift To Services Continues Share of Total Personal Consumption Expenditures1 % SERVICES 35 TRENDLINE 33 31 Spending on services still not fully recovered 29 Goods Services Long-term shift to spending on experiences 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q23 Decline in goods spending funding trav
Slide 9: Consumer Trends Remain Favorable
Consumer Trends Remain Favorable Premium Consumer Remains Healthy High-Income Household Wealth1 $ Trillion 120 100 +$27 Trillion Since 2019 High-income travelers accounted for 75% 80 of spending on air travel1 Leisure travel is the highest priority purchase for high-income households2 60 2016 2017 2
Slide 10: Multi-Year Supply Constraints
Multi-Year Supply Constraints Industry Capacity as a % of 2019 Pre-Pandemic Analyst Estimates Actual / Current Outlook 120% 103% Capacity 17 pts lower in 2023 than pre-pandemic 92% Supply shortfall with industry capacity constrained estimates OEM and supply chain delays continuing Tight labor market
Slide 11: Raising 2023 Outlook & Reiterating 2024 Targets
Raising 2023 Outlook & Reiterating 2024 Targets Updating 2023 Guidance Reiterating 2024 Targets Prior Guidance 2023E 2024E Operating Margin Top End 13% - 15% 10% - 12% Earnings Per Share Top End >$7 $5 - $6 Free Cash Flow $3B >$4B >$2B ROIC >13% Mid-Teens Low Double-Digits Note: Adjusted for special
Slide 12: Committed To Delivering Profitability Across The Cycle
Committed To Delivering Profitability Across The Cycle STRUCTURALLY IMPROVED BUSINESS LEVERS TO MANAGE CYCLES More diversified, high-margin revenues Capacity and fleet flexibility Stronger brand loyalty and hub positions Cost variability with new tools developed Prioritizing Free Cash Flow and debt
Slide 13: Building On Durable Competitive Advantages
Building On Durable Competitive Advantages PEOPLE GLOBAL FINANCIAL & CULTURE NETWORK FOUNDATION OPERATIONAL CUSTOMER RELIABILITY LOYALTY Delta People Are The Foundation Of Our Success And Future 13
Slide 14: Long-Term Strategic Priorities
Long-Term Strategic Priorities RUN THE WORLD’S UNLOCK VALUE OF TRANSFORM DELIVER LONG-TERM BEST AIRLINE OUR TRUSTED BRAND THROUGH DIGITAL SHAREHOLDER VALUE Delivering industry-leading Transcending industry Empowering our people Performing ahead of plan operational performance with brand momentum Enh
Slide 15: Delta's Brand Transcends The Industry
Delta’s Brand Transcends The Industry # 5 U.S. eCommerce Retailer # 12 Most Admired Companies Cobrand Spend Approaching 1% of U.S. GDP #19 Ranking In Fortune 500 Return On Leadership (ROL100TM) List eCommerce retail analysis based on publicly disclosed U.S. eCommerce revenues using Delta Digital RPA
Slide 16: Deepening Customer Relationships Drives Value
Deepening Customer Relationships Drives Value SINCE 2014 SkyMiles Member Acquisitions 1 Million Monthly +15pts NPS Improvement +20pts Direct Distribution +$5B Amex Remuneration 2014 2019 2023 Acquisitions reported on a monthly basis; 2020 SkyMiles monthly acquisitions excluded due to impact of the p
Slide 17: Digital Powers The Experience Of Delta's Brand And People
Digital Powers The Experience Of Delta’s Brand And People Industry-Leading Elevated Experience Expanded Member Merchandising & Reliability & Efficient Servicing Engagement & Loyalty World-Class Retailing NPS +6 To 10 Accelerates Margin-Accretive Revenue $1B+ In Long-Term Efficiency Gains Increased R
Slide 18: Accelerating Our Momentum Through Digital
Accelerating Our Momentum Through Digital Cloud Seamlessly moving to cloud by 2024, increasing agility Migration and resilience Fast Free Streaming speed Wi-Fi deployed on 80% of Mainline fleet by Wi-Fi end of 2023 with full international roll-out by end of 2024 Self- More than 85% of transactions n
Slide 19: Prioritizing Free Cash Generation
Prioritizing Free Cash Generation Free Cash Flow $4.3B $4B+ $4B+ $3B Sustaining revenue premium Improving unit cost trajectory Disciplined reinvestment Increased weighting of Free Cash Flow in 2023 Executive Compensation Program $0.2B 2019 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E Targeting Free Cash Flow Of $4 Billio
Slide 20: Glen Hauenstein
Glen Hauenstein PRESIDENT 20
Slide 21: Generating Record Revenue
Generating Record Revenue Updating Revenue Outlook Year Over Year Revenue Prior Updated 17%-20% 15%-20% 17%-18% Expect TRASM 15%-17% Flat to +3% YoY Expect TRASM Flat to +1% YoY Raising revenue outlook for June quarter and full year Robust consumer demand with corporate steady International on pace
Slide 22: Building Momentum Into 2024
Building Momentum Into 2024 2024 Seat Restoration Versus GDP as a % of 2019 107% ~98% Capacity growth normalizing Restoring best-in-class operational reliability Optimizing network and increasing fleet utilization Delta Domestic U.S. Real GDP Seat Departures Improving product, partnerships and offer
Slide 23: Structural Demand Tailwinds
Structural Demand Tailwinds Delta Total Unit Revenue LONG-TERM TREND COMPARED TO 2019 3% CAGR +35% Demographic shifts Growth from 2% CAGR Millennials driving travel demand and younger +10pts Consumer mix Consumers valuing of premium experiences & travel product revenue +50% Personal revenue Hybrid w
Slide 24: Integrated Commercial Strategy Drives Leading Profitability
Integrated Commercial Strategy Drives Leading Profitability ACCELERATE NETWORK INVEST FOR EXPAND HIGH-MARGIN ADVANTAGES THE FUTURE REVENUES Efficient, high-margin Core hubs Next-gen fleet evolution Growing premium revenue Investments in Coastal gateway hubs Generational airport upgrades Record growt
Slide 25: Powerful Domestic Network
ACCELERATE NETWORK ADVANTAGES Powerful Domestic Network Best-In-Class Local Core hub share +10 pts higher Domestic Hub Structure than network carrier average SEA #2 Geographic location of Core hubs MSP #1 BOS #1 with large catchment areas and ideal E-W and N-S flow SLC #1 DTW #1 LGA/JFK #1 Low cost
Slide 26: Reshaping Global Network To Drive Margin Expansion
ACCELERATE NETWORK ADVANTAGES Reshaping Global Network To Drive Margin Expansion Increasing Capacity to Partner Hubs 45%+ 36% 2x margin to partner hubs LHR AMS #2 #1 CDG ICN #1 #1 PVG MEX #1 #1 2019 2024E BOG #2 LIM #1 GRU Growing Next-Gen #1 SCL Widebody Aircraft Mix #1 40%+ Margin +10-12 pts Delta
Slide 27: Fleet Evolution Supports Commercial Strategy
INVEST FOR THE FUTURE Fleet Evolution Supports Commercial Strategy Retiring Next-Gen Retiring Next-Gen Aircraft Replacement Aircraft Replacement 757-200 A321neo 767-300ER A330-900neo (199 seats) (194 seats) (215 seats) (281 seats) Seat Cost (10%) Seat Cost (7.5%) +$4-5M +$7-8M Premium Seats +13 seat
Slide 28: Growing Demand For Premium
EXPAND HIGH-MARGIN REVENUES Growing Demand For Premium Premium Revenue Outperforming >10pts $19B Premium vs. $15B Main Cabin Margin 85% $10B Repurchase Rate Among Frequent Flyers 100% 2014 2019 2023E Flights with % of Total Revenue Premium Seats 24% 32% 35% Premium seats: Delta One, First Class, Del
Slide 29: Cobrand Card Gaining Momentum
EXPAND HIGH-MARGIN REVENUES Cobrand Card Gaining Momentum SINCE 2019 American Express Remuneration to Delta $10B >$6.5B +25% +60% $4B Cobrand Accounts Cobrand Spend $2B Growing SkyMiles Membership & Customer Value Drives Sustained Loyalty Growth 2014 2019 2023E Long-Term Goal Cobrand accounts define
Slide 30: Revenue Diversity Drives Margin
EXPAND HIGH-MARGIN REVENUES Revenue Diversity Drives Margin Total Revenue LONG-TERM GROWTH OUTLOOK $60B+ $54B MAIN GDP 23% $47B 21% $40B 21% 20% 37% 35% PREMIUM GDP+ 24% 32% 56% 47% 44% 40% LOYALTY GDP++ & OTHER 2014 2019 2023E Long-Term Goal Main Premium Loyalty & Other Other revenue defined as MRO
Slide 31: Allison Ausband and Ranjan Goswami
Allison Ausband EVP & CHIEF CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE OFFICER Ranjan Goswami SVP, CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE DESIGN 31
Slide 32: People Power The Delta Brand, Driving Customer Satisfaction
People Power The Delta Brand, Driving Customer Satisfaction 26% SAFE, CLEAN, ON-TIME 50% WITH BAGS + RECOVERY 24% OF NPS ATTRIBUTED TO OUR PEOPLE EMPLOYEE INTERACTIONS 17% ONBOARD PRODUCTS 14% APP EXPERIENCE Note: NPS data Domestic only, 1/1/22 – 6/30/22. Onboard product includes seat comfort, cabin
Slide 33: Delivering Operational Excellence Is Foundational
Delivering Operational Excellence Is Foundational PERSONALIZATION ELEVATED PRODUCT DELTA BRAND DELIVERED BY OUR PEOPLE INDUSTRY-LEADING OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY SAFE, CLEAN, ON-TIME WITH BAGS + RECOVERY 33
Slide 34: Operational Performance Continues To Improve
Operational Performance Continues To Improve Completion Factor On-Time Arrivals Missed Bag Rate 99.3% 71.0% 7.0 97.8% 98.8% 69.2% 68.6% 5.6 4.8 2019 2022 2023 YTD 2019 2022 2023 YTD 2019 2022 2023 YTD Competitive Rank Competitive Rank Competitive Rank #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 Competitive rank incl
Slide 35: Elevating The Customer Experience
Elevating The Customer Experience WELCOMING, GENERATIONAL BRAND-READY PREMIUM FAST, FREE WI-FI ELEVATED & AIRPORT AIRCRAFT CABINS AND DIGITAL CARING SERVICE INVESTMENTS ENGAGEMENT 35
Slide 36: Engaged Membership Drives NPS And Lifetime Customer Value
Engaged Membership Drives NPS And Lifetime Customer Value SkyMiles Members >2X AND MORE Non-Member NPS Spend 5X More on Delta than Non-Members +DELTA ONE/ +DELTA SYNC +VACATIONS, FIRST CARS, STAYS, +SKYMILES INSURANCE AMEX CARD +MEDALLION STATUS +FLY DELTA APP +SKYMILES MEMBERSHIP NON- MEMBER $ ANNU
Slide 37: Membership Takes Customer Experience To The Next Level
Membership Takes Customer Experience To The Next Level PERSONALIZATION POWERED BY MEMBERSHIP ELEVATED PRODUCT DELTA BRAND DELIVERED BY OUR PEOPLE INDUSTRY-LEADING OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY SAFE, CLEAN, ON-TIME WITH BAGS + RECOVERY 37
Slide 38: Synchronizing Channels To Know And Serve Customers Better
Synchronizing Channels To Know And Serve Customers Better People In-Flight Service Empowered by digital tools SkyPro Airport Reservations Customer Service OmniPro SNAPP Delta Sync Chat Powered by fast, free Wi-Fi Kiosk Fly Delta App Delta.com 38
Slide 39: Delta Sync Debuts Two New Onboard Digital Channels
Free Wi-Fi Makes The Aircraft A Platform For Digital Engagement Delta Sync Debuts Two New Onboard Digital Channels For SkyMiles Members DELTA SYNC DELTA SYNC Exclusives Seatback Screen 39
Slide 40: Dwight James
Dwight James SVP, CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT & LOYALTY 40
Slide 41: Strengthening The Power Of Membership Through Loyalty Ecosystem
Strengthening The Power Of Membership Through Loyalty Ecosystem Improving SkyMiles Membership Experience via Personalization Growing a More Engaged Member Base Delivering High-Margin Revenue Growth 41
Slide 42: Member Base Becoming Younger, More Engaged And More Premium
Member Base Becoming Younger, More Engaged And More Premium BECOMING YOUNGER MORE ENGAGED SHIFTING TO MORE PREMIUM Average Age of New Members Members Engaging Beyond Flight SkyMiles Premium Revenue Mix (Cobrand, Travel Adjacent Experiences, Non-Air Partners) 44 9M 29% 42 26% 6M 7M 39 15% 2017 2019 2
Slide 43: Industry-Leading Cobrand Portfolio With Room To Grow
Industry-Leading Cobrand Portfolio With Room To Grow American Express Remuneration to Delta ROBUST PIPELINE FOR GROWTH $10B 25M Active SkyMiles Members >$6.5B 30% SkyMiles Member Penetration $4B Premiumization $2B Continued mix shift toward high spending premium cards 2014 2019 2023E Long-Term Goal
Slide 44: Expanding Loyalty Ecosystem
Expanding Loyalty Ecosystem TRAVEL-ADJACENT CURRENT MEMBER PROFITABILITY EXPERIENCES PENETRATION 500K SkyMiles Members >3X VACATIONS CARS 90% Fly Delta app active users $250M 60% Premium flyer penetration 60% Cobrand cardholders STAYS INSURANCE 40% Small business customers 2023E Long-Term Goal Offer
Slide 45: Trusted Travel Brand With Growing Membership
Trusted Travel Brand With Growing Membership Delta’s trusted brand drives customer preference and SkyMiles membership SkyMiles integration across loyalty ecosystem reinforces value of membership Digital investments enable personalized engagement with customers on the ground and in the air Strategic
Slide 46: Dan Janki
Dan Janki CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 46
Slide 47: Returns-Focused Strategy Drives Sustained Value Creation
Returns-Focused Strategy Drives Sustained Value Creation Generated mid-teens operating margins 2014 to 2019 MARGIN EXPANSION Expect four points of margin expansion in 2023 and two points in 2024 Delivered $21 billion of Free Cash Flow 2014 to 2019 CASH GENERATION Expect $3 billion of Free Cash Flow
Slide 48: Executing Ahead Of Three-Year Financial Plan
Executing Ahead Of Three-Year Financial Plan Significant EPS Growth Strong Free Cash Flow Reducing Debt Earnings Per Share Free Cash Flow Adjusted Debt / EBITDAR >$4B >$7 5x Pension $6 Fully Funded $3B 3x $3 <2.5x $0.2B 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E Prior Guidance $5 - $6 >$2B 3
Slide 49: Cost Trajectory At Inflection Point
Cost Trajectory At Inflection Point Non-Fuel Unit Costs Year Over Year Absolute costs tracking to plan with labor at 4.7% market rates and inflation stable; capacity lower Non-fuel unit costs improving year over year 1%-3% with declines expected in 2H23 and 2024 Low-cost capacity growth in Core hubs
Slide 50: Over $1 Billion Of Cost Opportunity Through Efficiency
Over $1 Billion Of Cost Opportunity Through Efficiency Capacity Growth Normalizes In 2024 ASMs Year Over Year 20% Flight crews: Moderate hiring & training, 17% increase reserves, deploy resources to flying Maintenance: Reduce engine turnaround Mid Single- times and inventory to historical norms Digi
Slide 51: Longer-Term View Of Key Financial Drivers
Longer-Term View Of Key Financial Drivers 2010-2017 2017-2024E TRASM CAGR 2% 3% NF CASM CAGR 3% 3% Inflation CAGR 2% 4% Fuel Cost per ASM CAGR (5%) 6% Non-Fuel Unit Cost CAGR 2017 To 2024E Consistent With History And Operating Margins 8% → 14% 14% Below Inflation Inflation Source: S&P Global Outlook
Slide 52: Expanding Margins And Returns
Expanding Margins And Returns Operating Margin MARGIN AND ROIC DRIVERS 15% 13%-15% Operational excellence Top-End Of 10%-12% Improving non-fuel unit costs 9% Commercial strategy 8% ‒ Network reshaping ‒ Next-gen fleet evolution ‒ Premium & loyalty growth 0.3% Leveraging investments 2009 2010 - 2014
Slide 53: Driving Cash Generation
Driving Cash Generation Strong Free Cash Flow Outlook >$4B $3B Stronger cash flow driven by robust demand Consistent, disciplined reinvestment Accelerating debt repayment; expect to retire >$4 billion of gross debt in 2023 Recently re-initiated dividend 2023E 2024E CapEx Free Cash Flow Yield Of 15%
Slide 54: Restoring The Balance Sheet To Investment Grade Metrics
Restoring The Balance Sheet To Investment Grade Metrics 2017-2019 Avg. 2023E 2024E Adjusted Debt / EBITDAR 2x 3x <2.5x Pension Funded Status 70% 100% 100% Unencumbered Assets $15B >$20B $25B Balance Sheet Positioned To Exit 2024 Stronger Than 2019 Unencumbered assets 2017-2019 average based on 2019
Slide 55: Delta Well-Positioned On Next-Gen Engine Platforms
Delta Well-Positioned On Next-Gen Engine Platforms Next-Gen Engine Platforms Driving Growth Industry-Wide Installed Engines2 70K 46K MRO leverages Delta’s deep technical capabilities, scale and preferred-partner OEM relationships Sizeable engine & component market with $55B addressable market and hi
Slide 56: MRO Differentiates Delta
MRO Differentiates Delta Delta MRO Revenue Forecast $5B+ $2B $0.8B Delta MRO positioned to become premier non-OEM provider 2023E 2026E 2030E+ Targeting mid-teens margins Provides cost advantage for Delta fleet MRO Growth Drives Earnings And Cash Flow Existing next-gen facilities set stage for capita
Slide 57: Delivering Sustained Value Creation
Delivering Sustained Value Creation Industry-Leading Building On INCREASE REVENUE GROWTH Core Airline Strength Of IMPROVE EARNINGS DURABILITY Powered by the Core Airline LEVERAGE EXISTING CAPITAL BASE Best People Loyalty Ecosystem Premier Airline MRO Digital Transformation Build loyalty, deepen Leve
Slide 58: Key Investor Takeaways
Key Investor Takeaways Best-in-class people and culture underpin our trusted brand that transcends the industry Constructive industry backdrop with structural demand tailwinds and multi-year supply constraints Unique opportunities to grow earnings by leveraging brand strength, competitive advantages
Slide 59: Appendix
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Slide 60: Appendix: Financial Guidance
Appendix: Financial Guidance Primary Metrics 2Q23 2023 2024 PROFIT SHARING Revenue YoY +17%-18% +17%-20% GDP+ FORMULA Operating Margin 16% Top-End of 10%-12% 13%-15% Earnings Per Share $2.25-$2.50 $6 >$7 Delta’s broad-based employee profit sharing program pays 10% of the company’s adjusted Unit Metr
Slide 61: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Delta sometimes uses information ("non-GAAP financial measures") that is derived from the Consolidated Financial Statements, but that is not presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. (“GAAP”). Under the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Slide 62: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Free Cash Flow. We present free cash flow because management believes this metric is helpful to investors to evaluate the company's ability to generate cash that is available for use for debt service or general corporate initiatives. Free cash flow is defined as net cash
Slide 63: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjustments. The following reconciliations include certain adjustments to GAAP measures that are made to provide comparability between the reported periods, if applicable, and for the reasons indicated below: Third-party refinery sales. Refinery sales to third parties, an
Slide 64: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Total Revenue, adjusted and Total Revenue Per Available Seat Mile ("TRASM"), adjusted Year Ended (in billions) December 31, 2014 December 31, 2019 December 31, 2022 Total revenue $ 40.4 $ 47.0 $ 50.6 Adjusted for: Third-party refinery sales (0.1) (0.1) (5.0) Delta Private
Slide 65: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Operating Margin, adjusted Year Ended December 31, 2010 - 2014 2015 - 2019 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2022 Average Average Operating margin (1.2)% 7.0% 5.5% 19.2% 17.7% 14.5% 11.8% 14.1% 7.2% 6.6% 15.4% Adjusted for: MTM adjustments and settlements on hedges
Slide 66: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Pre-Tax Income, Net Income, and Diluted Earnings per Share, adjusted Year Ended Year Ended December 31, 2022 December 31, 2022 Pre-Tax Income Net Earnings (in millions, except per share data) Income Tax Income Per Diluted Share GAAP $ 1,914 $ (596) $ 1,318 $ 2.06 Adjusted
Slide 67: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjusted Debt to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization and Rent ("EBITDAR"). We present adjusted debt to EBITDAR because management believes this metric is helpful to investors in assessing the company's overall debt profile. Adjusted debt includes o
Slide 68: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Non-Fuel Unit Cost or Cost per Available Seat Mile, adjusted ("CASM-Ex") Three Months Ended (Projected) 1Q23 vs 1Q22 % 2Q23 vs 2Q22 % (in cents) March 31, 2022 June 30, 2022 March 31, 2023 June 30, 2023 change change CASM 19.56 20.89 21.25 18.80-19.05 Adjusted for: Third-
Slide 69: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Non-GAAP Financial Measures After-tax Return on Invested Capital ("ROIC"). We present after-tax return on invested capital as management believes this metric is helpful to investors in assessing the company's ability to generate returns using its invested capital as a measure against the industry. R