Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Investor Presentation (March 2015)
50 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's investor presentation, Mar 26, 2015
Slide 1: TF Balancing 26/3/2015
elia TF Balancing 26/3/2015 :
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Status Contracting 2015 R3 2016 Planning International Developments Enhancements Balancing Publications Solar Eclipse 20/3/2015 Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015
Slide 3: Contracting 2015 - Update
Contracting 2015 - Update TF Balancing 26/3/2015 Hans Vandenbroucke
Slide 4: Contracting R3 2015 – Final results
Contracting R3 2015 – Final results Elia organized a tender for 400 MW of tertiary control power o Between 300-400MW R3 from generation o Between 0-100MW R3 Dynamic Profile The tender procedure resulted in allocation of 340MW R3PROD and 60MW R3DP. One provider of R3PROD filed an appeal, result
Slide 5: Contracting R3DP & ICH Winter 2014 - 2015
Contracting R3DP & ICH Winter 2014 - 2015 Taken the potential situation of scarcity in the winter into account, Elia informed the CREG and the Minister of the extra potential of R3DP and ICH offered to Elia. On the Oct 8th, Elia received a letter from the Minister requesting Elia to procure a ma
Slide 6: Recap evolution from STAR 2014 to STAR 2015
Recap evolution from STAR 2014 to STAR 2015 STAR 2014 STAR 2015 R1/R2 – 28% of R1/R2 volumes 100% of R1/R2 volumes VOLUME DEMAND o 27MW R1-100mHz o 83MW R1-200mHz equivalent reaction o 20MW R2-sym o 140MW R2-sym R1/R2 - PRODUCTS R1-100mHz, R1-100mHz, R1-200mHz, R1-up, R1-down R2-up & R2-down R2-up &
Slide 7: R1 & R2 2015 - Auction results
R1 & R2 2015 - Auction results http://www.elia.be/en/suppliers/purchasing-categories/energy-purchases/Ancillary-Services-Volumes-Prices #Since 1/1/2015: no operational issues incurred Average monthly price R1 & R2 Each auction triggered a 2nd auction (price trigger) In February: GCT2 was delay
Slide 8: Volumes 2016 & R3 Evolutions
Volumes 2016 & R3 Evolutions TF Balancing 26/03/2015 Sophie van Caloen
Slide 9: Volumes 2016
Volumes 2016
Slide 10: Agenda
Agenda 1. Dossier Volumes 2. Dimensioning FCR (R1) 3. Dimensioning FRR (R2 + R3) 4. FRR (R2 + R3) results Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 10
Slide 11: Dossier Volumes
Dossier Volumes The ‘Dossier Volumes’ deals with the dimensioning of R1, R2 and R3 • Application of the Technical Regulation Art 233 • The TSO evaluates and determines the volumes needed to ensure security, liability and efficiency of the network • The TSO will send the methodology and results to th
Slide 12: Dimensioning FCR (R1)
Dimensioning FCR (R1) Frequency Containment Reserves (R1) is joint responsibility of all TSOs of RG Continental Europe. • Joint action to stabilize frequency after occurrence of an imbalance in the Synchronous Area Total volume of 3000 MW FCR within RG Continental Europe. • Simultaneous outage of tw
Slide 13: Dimensioning FRR (R2 + R3)
Dimensioning FRR (R2 + R3) Dimensioning of Frequency Restoration Reserves (R2+R3) at TSO level • TSO is responsible to restore the balance of its Control Block within 15’ • The volumes of FRR depends on the expected imbalances of the Control Block Volume of FRR - requirements • Deterministic methodo
Slide 14: Probabilistic dimensioning methodology FRR (R2+R3)
Probabilistic dimensioning methodology FRR (R2+R3) Step 1 – System needs • Calculation of the total expected imbalances in 2016 • Calculation of FRR volume needs required to cover 99,9% of these imbalances (R2+R3) • Calculation of non socialised part of FRR volume to be delivered by the single Injec
Slide 15: Step 1: System Needs – methodology (1/3)
Step 1 : System Needs – methodology (1/3) Calculation of expected imbalances in 2016 • Based on observed system imbalance in 2014 • Additional forecasting errors due to increase of renewable capacity • Outages and Storm events are simulated apart From 2016, improvement of the dimensioning methodol
Slide 16: Step 1: System Needs – methodology (2/3)
Step 1 : System Needs – methodology (2/3) Improvement of the dimensioning methodology to take offshore storm behavior into account • Storm event = sudden decrease of offshore power production in case of storm • Previously, the storm events were added to the time series of the reference year imbalanc
Slide 17: Step 1: System Needs – methodology (3/3)
Step 1 : System Needs – methodology (3/3) Calculation of non socialised part of FRR volume to be delivered by the single Injection ARP with nuclear units (Rn-1) • The Rn-1 volume is the difference between the volume needs of the ‘System Global’ and the volume needs of the ‘System Standard’ • This pr
Slide 18: Step 1: System Needs - results
Step 1 : System Needs - results 172MW Remark • A reduction of the needs of the ‘System Global’ is observed between 2016 and 2015 due to the reduction of the system imbalances. 2015 2016 Needs System Global 1240 1203 Needs System Standard 897 1031 Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 Rn-1 343 172 18
Slide 19: Step 2: Determination aFRR (R2)
Step 2 : Determination aFRR (R2) Calculation of System imbalances variability • Based on Qh-variations of expected system imbalances in 2016 • Based on historical observed quality and R2 deficit probability aFRR volume for 2016: • ACE quality in 2014 was good (ENTSO-E target respected) • Based on hi
Slide 20: Step 3: Determination mFRR portfolio (R3)
Step 3 : Determination mFRR portfolio (R3) R3 portfolio consists of several reserve products : R3 Production, R3 Dynamic Profile, ICH and Inter-TSO • Products have different specifications and limitations • Elia FRR portfolio must cover the expected residual imbalances in at least 99,9% of time % 10
Slide 21: Step 3: Determination mFRR portfolio (R3)
Step 3 : Determination mFRR portfolio (R3) The different product characteristics are taken into account when defining the constraints R3 portfolio. • R3 Production is available 100% of time and will be used (in combination with R2) to cover imbalances, especially forced outages of units (loss of max
Slide 22: R3 Evolutions
R3 Evolutions
Slide 23: Agenda
Agenda 1. Tendering yearly / monthly 2. R3 Design Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 23
Slide 24: Tendering yearly / monthly
Tendering yearly / monthly As European trends is to move towards short term sourcing and this could increase liquidity in the balancing market, the goal is to move to short term sourcing for balancing products in the next years. However, after consultation of the market (cf. TF Balancing 20/11/2014)
Slide 25: R3 Product Design
R3 Product Design R3 Production • No changes R3 Dynamic Profile • Access points, prequalified, will be allowed to provide yearly and monthly volumes • No changes in product design except the number of activations / month • Max activation duration of 2 hours with at least 12 hours between 2 consecuti
Slide 26: Planning
Planning TF Balancing 26/03/2015 Hans Vandenbroucke
Slide 27: Planning R3 – R3DP – ICH
Planning R3 – R3DP – ICH - to be confirmed Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 27
Slide 28: International Developments
International Developments TF Balancing 26/03/2015 Bob Hebb
Slide 29: Agenda
Agenda 1. NC on Electricity Balancing: Status 2. Early implementation NC on EB 3. XB initiatives Elia Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 29
Slide 30: NC on Electricity Balancing: Status
NC on Electricity Balancing: Status
Slide 31: Introduction
Introduction •The core goal of the Network Code on Balancing is to establish an European wide integrated cross-border balancing market where TSOs balance the system in a coordinated way in order to use the most efficient balancing resources taking into account transmission capacities. •Current way o
Slide 32: Status Network Code on Electricity Balancing (NC on EB)
Status Network Code on Electricity Balancing (NC on EB) • ACER have re-drafted significant the NC which was sent ENTSOe to ACER for qualified recommendation. • Fundamental changes regarding • Implementation of so-called ‘Coordinated Balancing Areas (deadlines, configurations) • Imbalance settlement
Slide 33: Early implementation NC on balancing
Early implementation NC on balancing
Slide 34: Stakeholder Group on Balancing
Stakeholder Group on Balancing • a platform for relevant stakeholders to discuss the objective of an integrated balancing market through early implementation of the EB • Representatives of ENTSOe, ACER, EC and European Associations • Key topics: • Follow up EU pilot projects • Follow up Early Implem
Slide 35: Proposal standard products mFRR and RR
Proposal standard products mFRR and RR Proposal Standard products mFRR & RR: (target date: Q2 2015) • First proposal ready by ENTSOe • Scope BE: CIPU-bids, R3 prod, ICH, R3DP • Discussions started with stakeholders (Balancing Stakeholder Group) • 8 different Reserve Replacement and mFRR products pro
Slide 36: Methodology Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Methodology Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Approach CBA • First step: develop a methodology for the CBA • Support by consultant: Frontier/Consentec • Next step: execute a CBA on the harmonisation of the Imbalance Settlement Period (ISP) Status/Next steps • Methodology for CBA has been finished and publ
Slide 37: XB initiatives Elia
XB initiatives Elia
Slide 38: Context: Pilot Projects on XB Balancing
Context: Pilot Projects on XB Balancing • Currently 8 different pilot projects investigate the implementation of the NC on EB Pilot GCC A 2 B 2 Pilot UK-NL C 3 Pilot BENL Pilot iGCC Pilot eGCC Pilot Terre Pilot Nordic D Pilot GCC 2 A. Imbalance Netting (IN) E 1 Pilot AUT-CH Pilot BENL B. Replacement
Slide 39: Current portfolio of XB projects by Elia
Current porfolio of XB projects by Elia • Imbalance netting: International Grid Control Cooperation (iGCC) • Exchanging opposing imbalances between German TSOs, Energinet (DK-W), TenneT TSO (NL), SwissGrid (CH), Ceps (Czech Republic) and Elia • Ongoing: Multilateral Agreement (MLA), aFRR as emergenc
Slide 40: Study on Cross-zonal FRR Balancing Market
Study on Cross-zonal FRR Balancing Market Following a common qualitative comparison study on the subject of a BE-NL-DE Coordinated Balancing Area (CoBA) the German (50 Hertz, Amprion, TenneT and TransnetBW), Belgian (Elia), Dutch (TenneT) and Austrian (APG) TSOs have decided to proceed with the anal
Slide 41: Pilot project BE-NL
Pilot project BE-NL • The BE-NL pilot project is assessing the exchange of aFRR (R2) and mFRR (R3) between 2 different Bidding Zones & LFC blocks. • Is one of the 8 pilot projects on XB balancing in Europe. Also one of the best appreciated projects • Pilot project consist of 3 steps: • Step 1 compar
Slide 42: Conclusions - Observations
Conclusions - Observations • Future modifications of Belgian Balancing market shall be more and more driven by EU developments • Key drivers are Network Code on Electricity Balancing and early implementation projects • The pilot project BE-NL and the common initiative with DE & AUT are important pro
Slide 43: Balancing Publications 2015
Balancing Publications 2015 TF Balancing 26/03/2015 Hans Vandenbroucke
Slide 44: Enhancement balancing publication - Survey
Enhancement balancing publication - Survey 5 Projects presented in the TF Balancing of 20/11 1. Publication of minute values • Separate NRV (R2, IGCC, R3) • Graph with minute-values of the last hour • Download of data 2. Frequency data • Download of data (no real-time) 3. System Warnings • Messages
Slide 45: Publication of solar forecast at DSO level
Publication of solar forecast at DSO level In the scope of UMIG 6.0 (2017), DSOs are working on the development of SPP (Synthetic Production Profile) These profiles will be used in DSO’s settlement processes to estimate Solar production of photovoltaic installations with no AMR metering. Elia
Slide 46: Publication of solar forecast at DSO level
Publication of solar forecast at DSO level An additional filter will be created to filter solar forecasts per DSO, similar to current filter per region Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 46
Slide 47: Solar Eclipse 20/3/2015
Solar Eclipse 20/3/2015 TF Balancing 26/03/2015 Sophie Van Caloen
Slide 48: Solar Eclipse – 20/03/2015
Solar Eclipse – 20/03/2015 Impact of the solar eclipse in Belgium • The maximal reduction of photovoltaic infeed occurred around 10:30 • PV-output reduction between 300-400 MW • Solar infeed was significantly lower than predicted in Day-Ahead APRs adequately programmed their portfolio to follow the
Slide 49: Solar Eclipse – 20/03/2015
Solar Eclipse – 20/03/2015 Impact of the solar eclipse in Continental Europe • The fast variations in solar generation were successfully managed by TSOs thanks to meticulous preparation, and strong regional and European cooperation. • Germany and Italy were facing the biggest challenges. • German TS
Slide 50: Thank you !
Thank you ! Task Force Balancing 26/3/2015 50