Cmb.tech Nv · EURONEXT:CMBT

Cmb.tech Nv — Euronav — Fearnley Securities presentation (September 2021)

24 slides from Cmb.tech Nv's conference presentation, September 2021

  1. Slide 1: Fearnley Presentation

    FEARNLEY PRESENTATION SEPTEMBER 2021

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements

    FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events

  3. Slide 3: Company Overview

    COMPANY OVERVIEW © EuRONay.

  4. Slide 4: World's Largest Publicly Listed Tanker Platform

    WORLD’S LARGEST PUBLICLY LISTED TANKER PLATFORM Euronav at a glance Diversified and attractive fleet  Diversified fleet of 48 VLCCs1, 30 Type # of vessels Avg. age Built life suezmaxes1, 2 FSOs3 and 2 ULCCs VLCC 48 6.6 yr. 25 yr.  Listed on NYSE and Euronext Brussels 11% with a current market cap

  5. Slide 5: Contracted Revenue Creates Operational Flexibility

    CONTRACTED REVENUE CREATES OPERATIONAL FLEXIBILITY Active Capital Allocation applied last 18 months Track record in counter cyclical investing 13,900 $/day 2 year Liquidity 5

  6. Slide 6: Sustainability Matters at Euronav… and for Tanker Shipping

    SUSTAINABILITY MATTERS AT EURONAV… AND FOR TANKER SHIPPING Alignment with UN Sustainable Development Goals Euronav financing – 1/3 already sustainability linked Euronav total carbon emissions Shipping able to deliver on decarbonisation 2.7% of 4.000.000 Air 425 global CO2 3.800.000 Road 80 emissions

  7. Slide 7: Euronav Investing in Latest Technology for the Energy Transition

    EURONAV INVESTING IN LATEST TECHNOLOGY FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION 8 eco-newbuilds on order Regulatory & commercial landscape demands action now Customer demands on emission compliance 2 2 2 Demand for emission efficient tankers 1 1 Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 VLCC Suezmax Da

  8. Slide 8: Market Outlook

    MARKET OUTLOOK | @euRonav.

  9. Slide 9: Outlook: Tanker Market Currently Soft…

    OUTLOOK TANKER MARKET CURRENTLY SOFT… 3-6 months Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil Oversupply vessels OPEC+ cuts being OECD/High vaccinations Oil demand still below short term tapered leading recovery 2019 peak 9

  10. Slide 10: Why Crude Tanker Market So Late Cycle? Because Had Triple Headwinds

    WHY CRUDE TANKER MARKET SO LATE CYCLE? BECAUSE HAD TRIPLE HEADWINDS Crude Tanker market impacted in 3 ways since Covid Other Shipping segments recovered to 2019 levels 110 105 Demand reduced by Covid-19 disruption 100 95 90 Supply of cargoes down (crude tanker only) 85 80 75 Dec-2019 Feb-2020 Apr-20

  11. Slide 11: Current Surplus Tonnage Keeping Freight Rates Capped

    CURRENT SURPLUS TONNAGE KEEPING FREIGHT RATES CAPPED 18,000 20,000 1 year time charter rate 22,000 25,000 28,000 33,000 40,000 50,000 66,000 100,000 11

  12. Slide 12: Short Term Surplus Tonnage Keeping Freight Rates Capped

    SHORT TERM SURPLUS TONNAGE KEEPING FREIGHT RATES CAPPED 18,000 20,000 1 year time charter rate 22,000 25,000 28,000 33,000 40,000 50,000 66,000 100,000 12

  13. Slide 13: Oil Demand Recovery Stuttering

    OIL DEMAND RECOVERY STUTTERING – 100 MBPD WILL REQUIRE LEAD BY LIFTING OF COVID RESTRICTIONS Trading VLCC fleet (# of vessels) IEA demand (mbpd) 900 Q4-19 Nov-20 105 COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine outbreak announcement 850 100 800 95 750 90 700 85 650 80 600 75 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4

  14. Slide 14: Oil Supply Set to Increase Medium Term

    OIL SUPPLY SET TO INCREASE MEDIUM TERM Return of OPEC barrels in 2H 2021 55.000 55.000 50.000 50.000 K bpd crude production / supply 45.000 45.000 OPEC+ to add OPEC+ 40.000 400k bpd per 40.000 to repeal month from all cuts September by Sept 35.000 2021 until Year 35.000 2022 end 30.000 30.000 25.000

  15. Slide 15: Onshore & Floating Inventory No Longer an Issue

    2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 Source: Clarksons EIA global inventory m bbls 5 Year average NO LONGER AN ISSUE Global OECD inventory below 5 yr average No of vessels floating storage 50 0 100 150 200 250 300 03-Jan-2020 03-Feb-2020 03-Mar-2020 03-Apr-2020 ..ONSHORE & FLOATING INVENTORY

  16. Slide 16: …& Signs of Market Recovery in Asset Prices

    …& SIGNS OF MARKET RECOVERY IN ASSET PRICES Asset prices rising on expectation of soon Asset prices tend to be a lead indicator for market recovery time charter rates 120 +25% +14% +14% +21% 80.000 110 103 70.000 100 105 85 60.000 80 100 70 72 63 50.000 60 56 95 49 40.000 43 90 40 30.000 85 20 20.00

  17. Slide 17: Outlook: Tanker Market Currently Soft… But Set for Recovery

    OUTLOOK TANKER MARKET CURRENTLY SOFT… 3-6 months Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil Oversupply vessels OPEC+ cuts being OECD/High vaccinations Oil demand still below short term tapered leading recovery 2019 peak … BUT SET FOR RECOVERY  Orderbook:  Non-OPEC  Emerging  Peak oil 2

  18. Slide 18: Strong Supply Dynamics with Low Orderbook, Ageing Fleet and Limited Yard Capacity

    Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil STRONG SUPPLY DYNAMICS WITH LOW ORDERBOOK, AGEING FLEET AND LIMITED YARD CAPACITY Orderbook/fleet ratio Age profile Yard lead times (VLCC) Orderbook % of fleet Avg. age (years) Years 55 11,0 4 Yard lead times Fleet age at 20-year 50 high – 25%+ of

  19. Slide 19: Recycling Candidates for Next 5 Years About 2.8x of Current Orderbook

    Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil RECYCLING CANDIDATES FOR NEXT 5 YEARS ABOUT 2.8X OF CURRENT ORDERBOOK 25% VLCC fleet > 15 years Average fleet age = 10 years Orderbook 9% Back to level not seen since 2002 80 11 70 10 10 60 Average age of VLCC fleet 9 50 Few >20 year old trading N

  20. Slide 20: Recycling - Why Not More Given Rising Steel Prices and Low Freight Rates?

    Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil RECYCLING - WHY NOT MORE GIVEN RISING STEEL PRICES AND LOW FREIGHT RATES? History: Rates below Breakeven = 5% of fleet recycles Recycling starts when low delta with 15 year old values 35 10 9 9% 30.000 30 8% 8% 8% 8 8% Delta $m VLCC scrap & 15 yea

  21. Slide 21: History in Cyclical Sectors Never Repeats But Often Rhymes

    Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil HISTORY IN CYCLICAL SECTORS NEVER REPEATS BUT OFTEN RHYMES 80.000 10 VLCC recycling May 2014 VLCC recycling July 2018 VLCC 1 year TC May 2014 VLCC 1 year TC July 2018 9 70.000 8 60.000 7 50.000 No of VLCC recycled 6 1 year VLCC TC 40.000 5 4 30.00

  22. Slide 22: Iran – Wild Card for Tankers?

    Vessel supply Supply of oil Ton miles Demand for oil IRAN – WILD CARD FOR TANKERS? Illicit trade 8% VLCC & 5% Suexmax fleet Older tonnage – illicit trade not recycled 70 9 38 40 No of illegitimate vessels 8 % of respective fleet 60 35 2019 2020 7 30 50 30 28 6 25 40 25 23 54 5 30 4 20 15 3 15 20 20

  23. Slide 23: Peak Oil Demand – Will Still Require Crude Transport

    Demand for oil Supply of oil Ton miles Vessel supply PEAK OIL DEMAND – WILL STILL REQUIRE CRUDE TRANSPORT Source: Clarksons 23

  24. Slide 24: Thank You

    Brian GALLAGHER Head of Investor Relations Member of Executive Committee Phone +44 20 7870 0436 Mobile +44 77 0368 4996 THANK YOU ir@euronav.com www.euronav.com  Please consider the environment before printing 24

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