Kelt Exploration Ltd. · TSX:KEL
Kelt Exploration — Investor Presentation (January 2025)
45 slides from Kelt Exploration's investor presentation, January 2025
Slide 1: Corporate Presentation January 2025
Corporate Presentation January 2025 KeltExploration.com David J. Wilson President & Chief Executive Officer Sadiq H. Lalani Vice President & Chief Financial Officer www.keltexploration.com 1
Slide 2: Why Invest in Kelt?
Why Invest in Kelt ? VALUE CREATION ● Kelt Exploration Ltd. (“Kelt” or the “Company”) focuses on value creation for shareholders over the long-term. ● The Company emphasizes low-cost land accumulation in resource-style plays with the potential for high rates of return on capital invested and rapid g
Slide 3: Capital Structure
Capital Structure ● Stock Exchange listing TSX ● Trading symbol KEL ● Market capitalization ( @ $7.02 effective Dec/31/2024 ) $ 1.4 billion ● 52-week stock trading range $ 5.00 – $ 7.20 ● Common shares issued 196.7 million ● Stock options ( 10.0 MM ) & RSUs ( 1.8 MM ) 11.8 million ( 6.0% ) → average
Slide 4: Insider Commitment
Insider Commitment Insider Purchases Offering / Market Purchases Date Shares (MM) Amount (MM) Price/share $ 13.9 MM Equity Private Placement Feb-2013 3.7 $ 8.7 $ 2.32 $ 94.4 MM Equity Private Placement Apr-2013 5.7 $ 31.5 $ 5.55 $ 92.0 MM Equity Private Placement Aug-2013 0.5 $ 4.0 $ 8.00 $ 19.6 MM
Slide 5: Capital Expenditures – Three Year Comparative
Capital Expenditures – Three Year Comparative 2024 2025 2025 / ( $ millions ) 2023 Forecast Budget 2024 Drilling & Completions 193.2 209.0 209.0 0% Infrastructure: Equipment, Facilities, 85.8 107.0 97.0 (10%) Pipelines & Tangible Inventory Land, Seismic, Corporate Assets & Property 3.6 9.0 22.0 [2]
Slide 6: Drilling & Completions Program
Drilling & Completions Program 2023 2024 Forecast 2025 Budget Drills Gross / Net Wells Gross / Net Wells Gross / Net Wells Alberta 21 20.0 27 25.2 31 26.5 British Columbia 7 7.0 6 6.0 4 4.0 Total 28 27.0 33 31.2 35 30.5 2023 2024 Forecast 2025 Budget Completions Gross / Net Wells Gross / Net Wells G
Slide 7: Production – Three Year Comparative
Production – Three Year Comparative 2023 2024 Forecast 2025 Budget Product Mix Product Mix Product Mix Oil ( bbls/d ) 7,979 26% 8,500 – 9,000 26% 11,000 – 12,000 25% NGLs ( bbls/d ) [1] 3,759 12% 3,400 – 3,600 11% 5,500 – 6,000 12% Gas ( Mcf/d ) 112,634 62% 120,600 – 125,400 63% 165,000 – 180,000 63
Slide 8: Production and Operating Income – Product Mix
Production and Operating Income – Product Mix 2022 2023 Operating Operating Operating Production Product Production Product Income [3] Income Netback [3] ( BOE/d ) Mix ( BOE/d ) Mix ( MM ) Split ( $/BOE ) Oil 5,640 21% 7,979 26% $ 188.9 66% $ 64.84 NGLs: C5+ [1] 1,484 6% 1,202 4% $ 29.7 10% $ 67.70
Slide 9: Commodity Prices – Three Year Comparative
Commodity Prices – Three Year Comparative ( CAD, unless otherwise specified ) 2023 2024 Forecast 2025 Budget WTI Crude Oil ( $/bbl ) [1] US $ 77.63 $ 104.76 US $ 76.54 $ 104.80 US $ 69.00 $ 97.18 MSW Crude Oil ( $/bbl ) [2] US $ 74.40 $ 100.40 US $ 72.03 $ 98.63 US $ 65.00 $ 91.55 NYMEX Henry Hub Na
Slide 10: 2025 Budget Commodity Price Sensitivities
2025 Budget Commodity Price Sensitivities Kelt Kelt 2025 Oil/NGLs Price Gas Price Forecast Plus 10% Plus 10% Kelt Oil Price ( CAD/bbl ) 87.33 96.06 +10% 87.33 ─ Kelt NGLs Price ( CAD/bbl ) 47.64 52.40 +10% 47.64 ─ Kelt Gas Price ( CAD/Mcf ) 3.00 3.00 ─ 3.30 +10% AFFO ( $MM ) [1] [2] 345.0 380.0 363.
Slide 11: Gas Market Risk Management
Gas Market Risk Management GAS MARKET DIVERSIFICATION ● Kelt has taken a diversified approach to selling its natural gas in order to reduce exposure to single market risk. ● Estimated % of average gas sales in 2024 at each respective price hub is forecasted to be as follows: AECO ( 61% ) Dawn ( 13%
Slide 12: Raw Gas Processing Arrangements
Raw Gas Processing Arrangements GAS PLANT DIVERSIFICATION Kelt has entered into various agreements that provide the Company with the ability to double its raw gas processing capacity as follows: Operating Division During During During 2023 2024 ( MMcf/d ) 2025 2026 2027 Wembley/Pipestone 59.0 59.0 1
Slide 13: Commodity Price Risk Management – Derivative Instruments (1 of 2)
Commodity Price Risk Management – Derivative Instruments ( 1 of 2 ) Remaining Commodity Index Type Quantity Contract Price Term AECO−Station 2 Jan/2025 to 5,000 AECO 7A Minus CAD $0.15 / GJ Natural Gas Physical Basis Differential Mar/2025 GJ/d [ equivalent to USD $0.11 / GJ at a CAD/USD exchange rat
Slide 14: Commodity Price Risk Management – Derivative Instruments (2 of 2)
Commodity Price Risk Management – Derivative Instruments ( 2 of 2 ) Remaining Commodity Index Type Quantity Contract Price Term Jan/2025 to 1,000 CAD $101.00 / bbl Crude Oil WTI Financial Mar/2025 bbls/d [ equivalent to USD $71.71 / bbl at a CAD/USD exchange rate of 1.4085 ] Jan/2025 to 2,000 USD $6
Slide 15: Netbacks – Three Year Comparative
Netbacks – Three Year Comparative 2024 2024 / 23 2025 2025 / 24 ( $ / BOE ) 2023 Forecast change Budget change Net realized price 43.01 37.80 ( 12% ) 38.84 3% Realized hedging gain ( loss ) 1.35 0.37 ( 73% ) 0.08 ( 78% ) Royalties ( % of net realized price ) ( 12.3% ) ( 12.6% ) 2% ( 11.0% ) ( 13% )
Slide 16: Financial Summary – Three Year Comparative
Financial Summary – Three Year Comparative 2024 2025 2025/24 ( $ MM, unless otherwise specified ) 2023 Forecast Budget change P&NG sales 495.6 474.0 671.2 42% Adjusted funds from operations [1] 276.2 221.5 345.0 56% AFFO per share – diluted ( $/share ) [1] 1.40 1.11 1.70 53% Capital expenditures, ne
Slide 17: ROACE – Three Year Comparative
ROACE – Three Year Comparative Return on average capital employed (ROACE) measures the efficiency of Kelt’s utilization of the capital that it employs. In this calculation, ROACE is defined as earnings for the period adjusted for interest expense and taxes as a percentage of the average capital empl
Slide 18: Reserves - Volumes
Reserves - Volumes ( MBOE ) Dec/31/2022 Dec/31/2023 Change Proved Developed Producing 61,062 71,081 16% Proved 192,073 256,584 34% Proved plus Probable 340,801 413,082 21% Oil & NGLs / Gas Mix 38% 62% 36% 64% ( MBOE ) PDP Proved P+P Reserve Additions, net 21,142 75,634 83,404 2023 Production 11,123
Slide 19: Reserves – Future Development Capital
Reserves – Future Development Capital Proved Reserves [1] P+P Reserves [1] December 31, 2023 FDC Net FDC Net ( $ MM ) Wells ( $ MM ) Wells Alberta Montney wells 1,343.2 170.7 1,676.2 214.7 B.C. Montney wells 212.9 27.0 396.6 50.0 Alberta Charlie Lake wells 161.6 28.2 250.5 45.4 Other expenditures [2
Slide 20: 2023 Finding, Development, Acquisition & Disposition Costs
2023 Finding, Development, Acquisition & Disposition Costs PDP Proved P+P ( $ M, unless otherwise specified ) Reserves Reserves Reserves Capital expenditures, net of dispositions 282,646 282,646 282,646 Change in FDC costs required to develop reserves ─ 558,245 422,973 Total capital costs 282,646 84
Slide 21: Net Asset Value
Net Asset Value Net Asset Value per Share Sproule’s Forecasted Future Commodity Prices December 31, 2023 $M $/share WTI NYMEX HH Exchange Proved reserves [2] 2,827,673 13.75 Crude Oil Natural Gas Rate (USD/bbl) (USD/MMBtu) (CAD / USD) Probable reserves [2] 1,687,701 8.21 2024 76.00 2.75 1.333 Undeve
Slide 22: Operating Divisions
Operating Divisions Oak/Flatrock ● Montney light oil/condensate-rich gas Pouce Coupe/Progress/Spirit River ● Montney light oil ● Montney and Doig gas Oak/Flatrock Pouce Coupe/ Progress/Spirit River ● Charlie Lake light oil Wembley/Pipestone Wembley/Pipestone Grande Cache ● Montney light oil/condensa
Slide 23: Operating Divisions – Summary of Reserves and Production
Operating Divisions – Summary of Reserves and Production Proved P+P 2023 2023 Production Reserves Reserves P+P Reserves [1] [2] Netback [3] Value [1] Value [1] Division BOE/d Oil/NGLs $/BOE $ MM $ MM MBOE Oil/NGLs Pouce Coupe/Progress/Spirit River 15,260 34% $ 24.87 768 1,266 113,247 25% Wembley/Pip
Slide 24: Kelt Land Fairway Land Holdings
Kelt Land Fairway R13 R11 R9 R7 R5 R3 R1W6 R24W5 94-A-14 94-A-15 94-A-16 T90 94-A-11 94-A-10 94-A-9 T88 T88 Land Holdings T86 Oak T86 Developed + Gross Net Net T84 Flatrock T84 Undeveloped Acres Acres Sections Fort St. John T82 T82 BC Montney 196,792 193,607 303 AB Montney 164,168 146,187 228 T80 T8
Slide 25: Kelt Montney Framework
Kelt Montney Framework Oak / Flatrock Pouce Coupe Progress La Glace Pipestone / Wembley Proven Productive Montney Horizons Kelt Future Exploratory Horizons within Core Areas Area Oak Pouce Coupe West Progress La Glace Pipestone / Wembley Primary Montney Target Upper and D4 Lower, D1 and D2 D1 D3 D3
Slide 26: British Columbia Montney - Oak / Flatrock Division
British Columbia Montney - Oak / Flatrock Division 11-26 Pad Montney Land Holdings & Drilling Inventory (1 well) 5-31 Pad Gross 191,742 acres ( 300 sections ) (5 wells) 13-12 Pad T87 ( 5 wells) Net 190,470 acres ( 298 sections ) Kelt 6-35 Oak Facility Future drilling locations (un-risked ) 580 wells
Slide 27: Alberta Montney Lands
Alberta Montney Lands Alberta − Montney Land Holdings 49 sections T80 Gross 164,168 acres ( 256 sections ) Net 146,187 acres ( 228 sections ) Pouce Pouce Coupe Coupe T78 POUCE COUPE WEST West ● High deliverability dry gas wells. Progress ● Wells typically come on production at rates between 10-12 MM
Slide 28: Pouce Coupe / Progress Division – Montney
Pouce Coupe / Progress Division – Montney T82 Kelt Lands NRM Fourth Creek Gas Plants Gas Plant T81 NRM Gordondale West NRM Gordondale East Gas Plant “Under Construction” Gas Plant T79 Pouce Pouce Coupe Coupe (oil-prone) West (gas-prone) Progress T77 Progress (oil-prone) Proven Productive Montney Hor
Slide 29: Wembley / Pipestone / La Glace Division – Montney
Wembley / Pipestone / La Glace Division – Montney Montney Land Holdings & Drilling Inventory 14-34 Pad (2 wells) Gross 114,088 acres ( 178 sections ) 4-20 Pad (4 wells) T75 9-17 Pad Net 110,139 acres ( 172 sections ) (1 well) 15-29 Pad 11-31 Pad (1 well) (1 well) Future drilling locations (un-risked
Slide 30: Wembley / Pipestone / La Glace Division – Infrastructure
Wembley / Pipestone / La Glace Division – Infrastructure Proposed third-party pipeline construction will T77 INFRASTRUCTURE connect with Kelt’s existing gas gathering system at Pouce Coupe / Progress, providing the Company ● Ownership in extensive pipeline infrastructure and with additional gas proc
Slide 31: Alberta Charlie Lake Lands
Alberta Charlie Lake Lands Alberta − Charlie Lake Land Holdings Pouce Gross 131,040 acres ( 205 sections ) Coupe T80 North Net 87,667 acres ( 137 sections ) Spirit River / Progress – Charlie Lake Inventory Spirit Progress River Future drilling locations (un-risked ) 55 wells [1] T78 Drilling locatio
Slide 32: Future Considerations
Future Considerations ● The Company has numerous potential future drilling opportunities on its existing lands that will provide for continued growth in the years to come. ● The Company has amassed vast Montney acreage in new plays to complement its existing development Montney lands. ● The Company
Slide 33: Corporate Governance - Board of Directors
Corporate Governance - Board of Directors William C. Guinan [ 8, 9 ] Jennifer J. Haskey [ 2, 6, 10 ] Board Chair, Independent Director, Independent Common shares 1,154,459 Common shares Nil Stock options 94,000 Stock options 45,000 Notes: RSUs 13,300 RSUs 10,800 [1] Chair, Audit Committee. 2023 Dire
Slide 34: Leadership - Officers
Leadership - Officers Douglas J. Errico David J. Wilson Sadiq H. Lalani Senior Vice President, Land President & Chief Executive Officer Vice President & Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Development Common shares 27,414,992 Common shares 1,850,071 Common shares 506,778 Stock options 1,161,500 St
Slide 35: Abbreviations and Definitions
Abbreviations and Definitions ACE the Chicago natural gas hub pricing point identified as the Alliance M thousand Chicago Exchange MM million AECO Alberta Energy Company “C” Meter Station of the Nova Gas Pipeline MSW Medium Sweet Blend System NGTL Nova Gas Transmission Limited AESO Alberta Electric
Slide 36: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements included in this corporate presentation (the “Presentation”) constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Such forward-looking statements or information are provided for the purp
Slide 37: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Future Oriented Financial Information This Presentation contains Future Oriented Financial Information (“FOFI”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The FOFI has been prepared by Kelt’s management to provide an outlook of the Company's activities and results. The FOFI has bee
Slide 38: Disclaimer
Disclaimer In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified in this Presentation, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: commodity prices; the accuracy of geological and geophysical data and its interpretations of that data; estimated decline rates; the impact
Slide 39: Disclaimer
Disclaimer No Obligation to Update The forward looking statements or information contained in this Presentation are made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information,
Slide 40: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Reserves Unless otherwise specified, reserve estimates disclosed in this Presentation were prepared by Sproule Associates Limited (“Sproule”) in accordance with National Instrument 51- 101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”) and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evalua
Slide 41: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Financial Advisories All dollar amounts are referenced in Canadian dollars, except when otherwise noted. Refer to "Non-GAAP Measures and Other Financial Measures" in the Company’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) for a quantitative reconciliation of capital expenditures net o
Slide 42: Disclaimer
Disclaimer “Capital expenditures, before A&D” and “Capital expenditures, net of A&D” are non-GAAP measures the Company uses to monitor its investment in exploration and evaluation, investment in property plant and equipment, and net investment in acquisition and disposition activities. The mos t dir
Slide 43: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Capital Management Measures Funds from operations and adjusted funds from operations Management considers funds from operations and adjusted funds from operations key capital management measures as it demonstrates the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations and cash flow avail
Slide 44: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Supplementary Financial Measures Production per common share: is calculated by dividing total production by the basic weighted average number of common shares outstanding, in accordance with GAAP. NPV10% BT: the anticipated net present value of the future net cash flow before taxes and af
Slide 45: Corporate Presentation
Corporate Presentation KeltExploration.com Kelt Exploration Ltd. Suite 300, East Tower 311 – Sixth Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H2 Phone: 403-294-0154 Fax: 403-291-0155 Website: www.KeltExploration.com 45
Kelt Exploration — Investor Presentation (January 2025) on 6ix