Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ:BLBD
Blue Bird — Q2 2023 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Blue Bird's earnings presentation, May 11, 2023
Slide 1: Blue Bird Corporation FY2023 Second Quarter Results
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) FY2023 Second Quarter Results Earnings Conference Call May 11, 2023
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Introductions & Mark Benfield Forward-Looking Statements Executive Director, Investor Relations Results and Highlights Matthew Stevenson President & CEO Financial Results Razvan Radulescu CFO Outlook Matthew Stevenson President & CEO Q&A Group This presentation includes forward-looking statem
Slide 3: Important Disclaimers: Forward Looking Statements
Important Disclaimers Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements relate to expectations for future financial performance,
Slide 4: Important Disclaimers: Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Important Disclaimers Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may include the following non-GAAP financial measures: “Adjusted EBITDA,” "Adjusted EBITDA Margin," “Adjusted Net Income,” “Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share,” “Free Cash Flow” and “Adjusted Free Cash Flow.” Additional information
Slide 5: Results and Highlights
RESULTS AND HIGHLIGHTS Matthew Stevenson President & CEO 5
Slide 6: Key Takeaways for the Fiscal Year 2023 Q2
Key Takeaways for the Fiscal Year 2023 Q2 Robust Market Demand & Backlog The Last Major Tranche of Legacy Priced Units Built Reinvesting in the Business – People, Processes, Facilities Strong Operational Performance Leads to Record Q2 Results EV Backlog Continues to Grow at Record Levels Market cont
Slide 7: FY2023 Q2 Financial Results and Ongoing Business Highlights
FY2023 Q2 Financial Results and Ongoing Business Highlights FY2023 Q2 Results Strong Large EV $775M+ BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS Deployments FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Backlog of 5.8k (Broward and Boston) Units1 UNITS NET SOLD SALES Average ~$200M 2,304 $300M Selling Price up 22% of EV’s in firm order Backlog2 37
Slide 8: Progress Continues Across the Business
Progress Continues Across the Business Operational Performance Financial Performance Best Performance in Two Years Q2 Records in Several Key Areas ✓ Set-ups ✓ Revenue ✓ Throughput ✓ EV Bookings ✓ Plant efficiency ✓ Parts Sales ✓ Hours per bus ✓ Adj. EBITDA Business starting to perform above historic
Slide 9: Reminder Key Focus Areas FY2023
Reminder Key Focus Areas FY2023 Our People Lean Transformation Expanding Our TAM Scaling EV 9
Slide 10: Successful Launch of Blue Bird EV Build Up Center
Successful Launch of Blue Bird EV Build Up Center Scaling production capacity up to 20 EV school buses per day, as market develops 10
Slide 11: EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program
EPA Clean School Bus Rebate Program Program Overview 2022 Lottery Results $5B funding over 5 years Blue Bird Corporate and Dealers Other OEMs ~300 Loyal BB Customers and ~$1B released in 2022 690 200- Channel Partners 400 2,468 Buses awarded at 391 School Districts ~1,200 Unallocated winnings Short-
Slide 12: EPA Clean School Bus Grant Program - Phase II
EPA Clean School Bus Grant Program - Phase II Phase II - $400M Competitive Grant Program Timeline Application period Anticipated Selection Anticipated Orders May – Aug 2023 Nov 2023 – Jan 2024 Jan – Mar 2024 • Extensive project narrative • Scored based on evaluation criteria • School district applic
Slide 13: Financial Results
FINANCIAL RESULTS Razvan Radulescu CFO 13
Slide 14: FY2023 Q2 and H1 Financial Results
FY2023 Q2 and H1 Financial Results FY2023 Q2 Results FY2023 H1 Results FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS UNITS NET UNITS NET SOLD SALES SOLD SALES 2,304 $300M 4,261 $536M +373 vs.’22 +$92M vs.’22 +1,181 vs.’22 +$199M vs.’22 Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA FCF EBITDA FCF $20M $23M
Slide 15: Q2 Income Statement
Q2 Income Statement ($ Millions) FY2023 FY2022 B/(W) Unit Volume 2,304 1,931 373 Unit Backlog 5,783 6,607 (824) Net Revenue $299.8 $207.7 $92.1 Bus Rev./Unit ($000's) $118.7 $97.6 $21.1 Gross Margin 11.9% 1.5% 10.4 pts. Adj. Net Income1 $8.6 $(10.1) $18.7 Adj. EBITDA1 $19.8 $(10.7) $30.5 Adj. EBITDA
Slide 16: Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow ($ Millions) FY2023-Q2 FY2022-Q2 B/(W) Cash $17.8 $14.9 $2.9 Debt $(139.6) $(156.9) $17.3 Liquidity1 $101.5 $108.6 $(7.1) Operating Cash Flow $22.5 $21.7 $0.8 Adj. Free Cash Flow2 $23.4 $21.6 $1.8 Trade Working Capital* $4.7 $31.2 $(26.5) Strong Free Cash-Flow for FY23-Q2
Slide 17: FY2022 Q2 to FY2023 Q2 Adj. EBITDA Walk
FY2022 Q2 to FY2023 Q2 Adj. EBITDA Walk ($ Millions) Q2 Unit Volume FY2022 1,931 +30.5 FY2023 2,304 5.4 Delta +373 19.8 3.8 (2.0) 23.3 7% of Net Rev. (5)% of Net Rev. (10.7) FY22-Q2 Bus Vol., Bus Parts Gross OPEX/Other FY23-Q2 Adj. EBITDA Price-Mat. Operations Profit Adj. EBITDA Significant improvem
Slide 18: Legacy backlog units behind us, FY23-H2 back to normal margins
Legacy backlog units behind us, FY23-H2 back to normal margins Status 04/01/23 Production Quarter 15% FY23 Orders to go 28% 31% FY23 Backlog (20-25% pricing) FY22 Newer Backlog (11-15% pricing) 64% FY21 Old Backlog (0-5% pricing) 74% 80% 100% 100% 57% 80% FY2024 Model Year 72% price increase 26% 36%
Slide 19: Steel prices back up in Q1-2023
After dropping over the last year, steel prices are back up in Q1-2023 US Steel Spot Prices, USD/ST, Jan ‘21– Apr ‘23 HR CR Scrap 4/21 4/28 2,500 2,000 1,870 1,500 1,370 1,471 1,000 1,163 500 679 487 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Slide 20: Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY2023-H2
Key Success Factors Already in Place for FY2023-H2 Rev. $235 $300 $275 - $300 $275 - $300 $1,085 - $1,135 $M 1 ✓ Q2 guidance exceeded; Record Q2 Revenues and EBITDA Adj. EBITDA ✓ Raising Revenues and EBITDA guidance for FY23 60 ✓ Fiscal Year production sold out (only some EV slots kept open) 55 - 65
Slide 21: FY2023 Guidance Raised: Strong profitability in FY2023
FY2023 Guidance Raised: Strong profitability in FY2023 FY2022 FY2023 FY2023 FY2023 B/(W) $ Millions Actuals Initial Dec. Feb. Updated May Updated Vs. Prior Year Guidance Guidance Guidance Net Revenue $800 $900 – $1,000 $1,000 - $1,050 $1,085 - $1,135 $285 - $335 Adj. EBITDA1 $(15) $35 - $45 $40 - $4
Slide 22: Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation
Long-term Outlook Driven by EV growth and Lean Transformation Units Revenues $M Diesel Gas Propane CNG EV Outlook Rev. $M 11,646 12,000 12,000 11,317 11,017 11,000 3,000 10,500 10,000 8,878 9,500 2,500 8,350 2,000 8,000 6,679 6,822 1,750 2,000 6,000 1,500 1,500 1,100 1,250 4,000 1,019 879 1,000 991
Slide 23: Outlook
OUTLOOK Matthew Stevenson President & CEO 23
Slide 24: Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond
Positioned for Strong Recovery in FY2023 & Beyond 45,000 NA School Bus Industry Bookings 22%+ = 8,350+ units Class 6-7* 39.6k 40,000 38.7k 36.8k 36.6k 35.8k 36.1k 35,000 32.6k Revenue 37%+ = ~$1.1 Billion 29.6k 29.5k 30,000 26.4k 25.7k 25,000 Parts Revenue 15%+ = $88+ Million 20,000 ~10% CAGR 15,000
Slide 25: Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights
Strong Outlook Ahead for Blue Bird / Investment Highlights Countercyclical Strong industry growth ahead with a backdrop of healthy funding and an aging school bus fleet National Commitment Beneficiary of $5B US Government’s commitment to the electrification of school buses The Leader Leading market
Slide 26: Q&A
Q&A 26
Slide 27: Appendix
APPENDIX 27
Slide 28: Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation
Adj. EBITDA Reconciliation 28
Slide 29: Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation 29
Slide 30: Adjusted EPS Reconciliation
Adjusted EPS Reconciliation 30
Slide 31: End
End 31