Tryg A/s · OMXCOP:TRYG
Tryg A/s — UBS Nordic Financials Conference 2009
21 slides from Tryg A/s's conference presentation, Sep 10, 2009
Slide 1: UBS – Nordic Financial Services Conference
1 UBS Nordic Financials Conference UBS – Nordic Financial Services Conference 10 September 2009 - Christine Bosse, CEO
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 2 UBS Nordic Financials Conference The strength of the top line The search for growth 'Normalised' capital needs Looking to the 'post-crisis' landscape
Slide 3: Strength of the top line - TrygVesta versus market
Strength of the top line - TrygVesta versus market 3 UBS Nordic Financials Conference TrygVesta The market Gross premium income Premium growth in % DKKm Gjensidige 17,323 12 TrygVesta in local 16,606 currency 8 Codan 16,021 15,705 4 TrygVesta 0 if… -4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1
Slide 4: New Markets add growth
New Markets add growth 4 UBS Nordic Financials Conference New and old markets contribution to premium growth 2005 - 2009 Growth contribution 10 8 SE+FI 6 4.0 DK+NO SE+FI 1.3 4 0.8 DK+NO 0.3 2.0 2 3.6 3.5 4.0 2.6 1.6 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e Denmark & Norway New Markets Moderna
Slide 5: Moderna adds growth and creates break-even
Moderna adds growth and creates break-even 5 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Gross premiums (incl. Moderna) DKKm 322 Moderna Distribution channel Sweden 67 64 58 54 Customer centre 45 37 27 Call centre 17 9 1 3 Bancassurance Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Ca
Slide 6: Health Care insurances add growth
Health Care insurances add growth 6 Development in number of health care insured in Denmark 1,000,000 900,000 17.3% 800,000 700,000 12.4% 600,000 500,000 9.6% 8.0% 400,000 7.5% 300,000 6.2% 200,000 100,000 2.1% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Number of insured in Danmark TrygVesta's market
Slide 7: Self-service – adds growth
Self-service – adds growth 7 UBS Nordic Financials Conference • Target to sell 10,000 policies in Denmark in 2009 No. of No. of policies policies • 1.7m visitors to home page January to July 350 1,600 • 142,000 visitors to ”My-Page” in January to July. Increased by over 150% this year 300 1,400 • Br
Slide 8: and new dimensions….
and new dimensions…. 8 UBS Nordic Financials Conference From the customers’ point of view From the employees’ point of view ge y -pa M SM S
Slide 9: Growth outlook 2010-2012
Growth outlook 2010-2012 9 UBS Nordic Financials Conference % 10 Macro uncertainty will reduce growth outlook Full year effect from Moderna 8.0% adds 1% • volume decline within workers’ compensation 8 due to unemployment • fewer new cars sold, retention increase • fewer new houses 6 4.8% 5.0 4.4% E2
Slide 10: Recently implemented price increases add growth
Recently implemented price increases add growth 10 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Norway Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 House building 2% 6% 1.8% 7.4% Finland Apr 09 Motor 4.8% 1.6% 1% 5.0% Motor 9% House content 11% Accident 11% TrygVesta Holiday house 10% Total effect of price increases* Travel 10%
Slide 11: and the reason behind the price increases
and the reason behind the price increases 11 UBS Nordic Financials Conference The market TrygVesta Combined ratio Codan Combined ratio 96 "CR" Codan Gjensidige Operating 91.9 ratio if… 92 88.5 87.4 87.6 87.1 88 TrygVesta 84 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1 09 H1 05 H1 06 H1 07 H1 08 H1 09 Claims ratio Tr
Slide 12: Behind the curve but catching up
Behind the curve but catching up 12 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Development since 2005…… …… and more recently Houses Denmark 150 Premium increases: Houses Denmark 140 110 130 Houses Denmark: 100 120 New product Q4 2008 90 110 up 11% 2008 2009 100 90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Slide 13: Search for growth in the Nordic region
Search for growth in the Nordic region 13 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Norway TrygVesta, EUR 4.4bn 18.0% Finland TrygVesta, Gjensidige, EUR 3.4bn Pohjola, 1.5% Tapiola, 23.4% 18.6% 29.3% Top 4 Top 4 Fennia, 86% 10.6% 78% If, 28.9% Sparebank1, 9.9% Other, Other, If, 25.3% 13.9% 20.6% Source: FNH.
Slide 14: 'Normalised' capital needs; Looking to the 'post-crisis' landscape
14 UBS Nordic Financials Conference 'Normalised' capital needs Looking to the 'post-crisis' landscape
Slide 15: Solvency II and political changes
Solvency II and political changes 15 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Future 2012-14 Political changes
Slide 16: Capital strategy
Financial crisis creates upward pressure 16 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Dividend policy: Capital strategy • 50% of net earnings Considerations • share buy backs in addition Capitalisation Capital needed to Buffer fulfill strategy Self-imposed buffer Capital needed to Rating TAC Regulatory Capit
Slide 17: Capital planning – a moving target
Capital planning – a moving target 17 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Quantitative impact Solvency II impact S&P RBC “A” model: 52 - 56% of premiums Financial crisis Operational risk Capital add-ons QIS 4 TrygVesta: 38% of premiums Internal modeling Diversifica- Solvency I : tion 16% of premiums So
Slide 18: Strong capital base
Strong capital base 18 UBS Nordic Financials Conference DKKm 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 07 07 07 08 08 08 09 09 06 ut t ut ut u yo yo yo yo 20 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q pa pa pa pa re re r r te te fo fo af af be be 07 08 07 08 20 20 20 20 Target capital (A- level) Buffer (5%)
Slide 19: Post crisis landscape
Post crisis landscape 19 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Fewer Underwriting Fewer Underwriting players discipline players discipline Increased Increased Try capital Tryto tostay stayatat capital requirements the cutting requirements the cutting edge… edge…
Slide 20: Summary
Summary 20 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Strong growth outlook for the coming years Strong take on improving profitability in all markets Solid capital position and prepared for the future Peace of mind for investors
Slide 21: Questions please
21 UBS Nordic Financials Conference Questions please