Ctp N.v. · EURONEXT:CTPNV
Ctp — BCR Guest Presentation (September 2024)
23 slides from Ctp's conference presentation, Sep 24, 2024
Slide 1: Ciprian Dascalu
Ciprian Dascalu 24-Sep-24
Slide 2: CEE region - highest estimated potential GDP growth in EU
CEE region - highest estimated potential GDP growth in EU Source: AMECO 24-Sep-24
Slide 3: 2Q24 GDP downside surprises prompt us to revise GDP accordingly
2Q24 GDP downside surprises prompt us to revise GDP accordingly. Croatia and Serbia on track with solid growth. Polish growth is stronger than monthly indicators suggest. 2Q24 GDP growth, percent 2024 and 2025 growth forecast, percent 5.0 5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 3 3.0 2.8 2.8
Slide 4: Private consumption carries growth across the region
Private consumption carries growth across the region. Weak investment activity in Hungary, in particular. 9.0 15. 10 8.0 8 10. 6 7.0 4 6.0 5. 2 5.0 0 0. 4.0 -2 -5. -4 3.0 -6 2.0 -10. -8 Poland Hungary Slovakia Poland Croatia Slovenia Hungary Slovakia Serbia Croatia Slovenia Serbia Czechia Czechia Ro
Slide 5: Very strong public consumption growth
Very strong public consumption growth. Alongside household final consumption expenditure, the public sector supported growth to a great extent in several CEE countries, most notably in Poland - growth above 10% y/y added 2 percentage points to the 2Q24 growth figure. In Slovakia, it has been driven
Slide 6: GDP, consumption and investment growth since pandemic
GDP, consumption and investment growth since pandemic, cumulative since 4Q19 Balanced structure of 30% Size of the bubble: Romania post-pandemic 25% GDP growth recovery, apart from Slovenia Czechia and Hungary Investment growth, cumulative since 4Q19 20% Serbia In most of the CEE countries, the post
Slide 7: Average inflation should decline in 2025 in most CEE countries
Average inflation should decline in 2025 in most CEE countries. Next year, inflation is expected to ease further. At this point, the downside risks to the growth are mounting (Germany‘s weakness, fiscal consolidation in CEE). If they materialize, they will be disinflationary. On the other hand, ther
Slide 8: Monetary easing to continue in 2025 across the region
8 Key interest rate forecast, percent Monetary easing to continue in 2025 across 7 the region. 6 This year, the key interest rate is 5 expected to drop in all CEE countries except for Poland, with an inflation rate increase driven by regulation of energy 4 prices. 3 Czechia and Hungary lowered their
Slide 9: Long-term yields moved down recently
Long-term yields moved down recently, erasing increase from first half of year. Long-term yields seem to have peaked in July and since then they have been moving south, as expectations for the monetary policy outlook have been changing on the major markets. We expect long-term yields to moderately d
Slide 10: Macro Forecasts
Macro Forecasts Real GDP growth (%) Average inflation (%) Unemployment (%) 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2022 2023 2024f 2025f Croatia 7.0 3.1 3.4 2.8 Croatia 10.8 8.1 3.1 2.6 Croatia 7.0 6.1 5.6 5.5 Czechia 2.9 0.0 0.9 2.7 Czechia 15.1 10.7 3.4 2.7 Czechia 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.4 Hungary 4.6
Slide 11: Romania: a successful convergence story
BCRS Romania: a successful convergence story Ciprian Dascalu 24-Sep-24
Slide 12: Empirical evidence suggest Romania has been benefiting greatly from EU membership
Estimated impact of EU accession in GDP per capita Empirical evidence 50000 suggest Romania has 45000 been benefiting greatly from EU membership 40000 Romania has been an EU member state 35000 since 2007. Since then, over 95 billion EUR of EU funds have been absorbed by our 30000 country. The estima
Slide 13: Strong FDI inflows and EU funds supported fast convergence
Strong FDI inflows and EU funds supported fast convergence process since EU adoption. EU funds seen at ~2% of GDP in 2024, after reaching historical record of 3.3% in 2023 FDI: Romania is top 3 destination for FDI in CEE vs. the FDI breakdown by main economic activity: one third of FDI size of the e
Slide 14: Foreign investment and EU money accelerated productivity gains
Foreign investment and EU money accelerated productivity gains post EU integration Real labour productivity per hour worked: Romania has Real labour productivity per employee in Romania the 2nd fastest growth in the EU, 2023 vs 2007 (%) (2008=100): up in all major sectors since joining EU 100.0 250
Slide 15: Second fastest convergence in the EU since entry
Second fastest convergence in the EU since entry, though poverty and social exclusion remain elevated, amid recent improvements GDP per capita as % of EU average increased by 32% of Romanian population is at risk of poverty or 35pp from 44% to 79% since EU accession social exclusion, down almost 13p
Slide 16: Romania: uneven development
Romania: uneven development Bucharest GDP/capita PPPs: 191% vs EU average, 6X vs Thriving IT sector in university centers: 7.7% of GDP the poorest county in Romania from ITC vs 5.4% EU average 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 7.7 EU average 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 IE CY MT SE RO BG EE CZ LV FI HR FR SK DE
Slide 17: Cheap labour force - a competitive advantage
Cheap labour force - a competitive advantage, labour supply available, though reforms needed to improve labour force participation rate Second cheapest labour costs in the EU still represents a competitive advantage (labour costs as % of EU, 2023 … while labour force participation is one of the lowe
Slide 18: Cheap labour force – an advantage for investments
Cheap labour force – an advantage for Hourly labour costs gap – favourable for CEE Average annual personnel costs per employee in investments (EUR, 2023) manufacturing (EUR thousands) Bulgaria Romania 14.8 Croatia Latvia Poland Hungary Lithuania Portugal Cyprus Greece Slovakia Estonia Malta Czechia
Slide 19: Romania has some of the lowest energy dependency ratios in EU
Romania has some of the lowest energy dependency ratios in EU - another advantage for Energy dependency, crude oil ( % of gross available energy, Energy dependency, natural gas ( % of gross available 2022) energy, 2022) 100 98 98 100 92 140 80 75 120 113 99 98 100 60 81 80 60 40 40 18 20 20 0 0 Sour
Slide 20: Romania high-tech exports and employment in high-tech industries
Romania stands around the middle of the pack in terms of high-tech exports in EU and has some of the highest numbers of employees in high- tech industries relative to the total Employment in high- and medium-high technology (% of total High-tech exports (% of total, 2022) employment, 2023) 45.0 12.0
Slide 21: Macro forecasts
Macro forecasts Real economy 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2021 2022 2028 ~—2004F —2026F GDP (real change yly, %) 29 «82 «60 387 BBB GDP (RON bn) 7521 8516 9591 10638 1066.8 11874 14013 16056 17658 19169 GDP per capita (EUR thou.) a6 95 106 11.5 114 126 149 Al 19.0 204 Household consumption (real change
Slide 22: Macro reports & forecasts are publicly available on Erste Group's website
Macro reports & forecasts are publicly available on Erste Group’s website and our mobile applications Open in your browser On your mobile Scan our QR code cid:bodyPart_qr_en.png Visit our research page: erstegroup.com/en/research Source: Erste Group Research September 24, 2024
Slide 23: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This publication was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its consolidated subsidiaries (together with consolidated subsidiaries "Erste Group") independently and objectively as general information pursuant. This publication serves interested investors as additional source of informat