Shell PLC · LSE:SHEL
Shell — Royal Dutch Shell — Investor Day (March 2010)
59 slides from Shell's investor day presentation, Mar 16, 2010
Slide 1: Royal Dutch Shell plc Strategy Update
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC STRATEGY UPDATE LONDON MARCH 16, 2010 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 2: Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER 2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 3: Definitions and Cautionary Note
DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves for 2007 and 2008 data. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” i
Slide 4: Financial Performance and Priorities
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND PRIORITIES EARNINGS PRIORITIES $ Bln 35 30 COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE 25 20 PROFITABLE GROWTH 15 10 SHARPER DELIVERY 5 0 -5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 UPSTREAM CORPORATE DOWNSTREAM DIVESTMENTS/OTHER CURRENT COST OF SUPPLY REPORTED EARNINGS 4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16
Slide 5: Oil & Refining Outlook
OIL & REFINING OUTLOOK CRUDE OIL SUPPLY Global oil production million boe/d 120 Crude oil to be 80 developed or found Robust oil demand expected for medium Unconventional oil 40 Currently producing NGLs term fields Natural field decline drives sustained 0 1990 2000 2007 2020 2030 industry upstre
Slide 6: Natural Gas Outlook
NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWTH SHELL GAS CAPABILITIES BCM GALLINA LNG SHIP 3,000 2,500 2,000 1990 2000 2010E SOURCE: IEA NATURAL GAS ADVANTAGE: EXAMPLE CCGT ATTRACTIVE ECONOMICS FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCERS $/MW hour Abundant global gas resources ~250 years GALLINA LNG SHIP - SINGAPORE
Slide 7: Rejuvenating the Portfolio
REJUVENATING THE PORTFOLIO: 2004+ Nigeria T6 Corrib Gbaran Harweel Ubie Ph 1 Pearl GTL BC-10 QatarGas 4 Perdido Gumusut Gorgon LNG Final Kashagan Afam Gas Bonga NW AOSP Expansion 1 Port Arthur Caesar Tonga Investment Ursa Princess Singapore Phase 1 Changbei NWS T5/Angel Waterflood Chemicals North Ra
Slide 8: Strategy & Capital Allocation
STRATEGY & CAPITAL ALLOCATION CAPITAL EMPLOYED $ Bln Upstream 200 100% Profitable growth; price upside >80% of total capital spending Sustained exploration investment 150 75% Downstream Stable capital employed 100 50% Fewer refineries; upgrade chemicals assets More concentrated marketing
Slide 9: Strategy Timeline
STRATEGY TIMELINE MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH PERFORMANCE FOCUS REJUVENATING PORTFOLIO: UPSTREAM & DOWNSTREAM 2004 2008 2012 2015+ 9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 10: Performance Focus
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PERFORMANCE FOCUS 2009-10+ 10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 11: HSSE Priority
HSSE PRIORITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT „GOAL ZERO‟ ON SAFETY Injuries - TRCF per million working hours 4 3 Project profitability 2 1 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Employees and contractors per million working hours; Shell operated facilities Environment Technology Safety Focus on pers
Slide 12: 2009-10 Cost Focus
2009-10 COST FOCUS TOP DOWN REORGANIZATION IMPLEMENTED COST DELIVERY & TARGETS Previous structure……. ……new top level 2009 Achievements structure 1st July 2009 E&P UPSTREAM INTERNATIONAL Transition 2009 programme complete GAS & POWER UPSTREAM AMERICAS 5,000 staff reduction OIL SANDS $2 bill
Slide 13: Cost Focus in Action
COST FOCUS IN ACTION EXAMPLE: CONTRACTING & PROCUREMENT EXAMPLE: CORPORATE FUNCTIONS Deepwater Rig rate - $ 000/day 480 440 400 SHARED SERVICE CENTRES 2009 2010 2011 2012 SHELL COMPETITORS Increasing role of “off-shoring” Global market: $26 billion, 185 rigs 6,700 staff in shared service centres
Slide 14: Operating Performance
OPERATING PERFORMANCE OIL & GAS PRODUCTION RELIABILITY LNG RELIABILITY 100% 100% 95% 95% 90% 90% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009 DOWNSTREAM AVAILABILITY DOWNSTREAM API PROCESS SAFETY INCIDENTS % of EDC # of safety incidents 95% 80 Refining Chemicals 60 40 20 90% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20
Slide 15: Performance Focus: Delivery of New Projects
PERFORMANCE FOCUS: DELIVERY OF NEW PROJECTS ORMEN LANGE RAMP-UP Kboe/d 400 Planned 200 production 0 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Ormen Lange onshore gas processing plant SUCCESSFUL SAKHALIN START-UP Kboe/d 400 200 Planned production 0 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 PRODUCTION PLAN Lunskoye Platform 15 Copyright of Ro
Slide 16: Downstream Profitability
DOWNSTREAM PROFITABILITY LONG-TERM RETURNS ENHANCEMENT STEEP DOWNTURN IN 2009 ROACE CCS Earnings - $ Bln $/Bbl 25% 10 10 8 8 20% 6 6 15% 4 4 2 2 10% 0 0 5% -2 -2 0% -4 -4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1990 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 DOWNSTREAM ROACE (annual) REFINING MARKETING & TRADING DOWN
Slide 17: Strengthening Downstream
STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM Indonesia entry Tongyi acquisition Singapore COSAN Selective China Chemicals Port Arthur Differentiated JV growth Nanhai expansion fuels Turkey JV Disposal Disposal Marketing reduction LA refinery French Greece Montreal Portfolio exit closure action US wholesale refineries E
Slide 18: Reducing Refining Exposure
REDUCING REFINING EXPOSURE ONGOING REFINING PORTFOLIO REDUCTION INCREASING SCALE AND COMPLEXITY Shell refining capacity – Kbbl/d Kbbl/d Nelson index 2002-09 -18% 250 10 5,000 2009-12 -15% 4,000 200 9 3,000 2,000 150 8 1,000 0 100 7 2002 2006 2009 2012 2002 2006 2009 2012 EUROPE & AFRICA AMERICAS ASI
Slide 19: More Concentrated Marketing Positions
MORE CONCENTRATED MARKETING POSITIONS MARKETING PORTFOLIO SIMPLIFYING BUSINESS & MAINTAINING EARNINGS Example: Retail 100% 100% 75% 75% 50% 50% 25% 25% 0% 0% '09 '12 '09 '12 '09 '12 '09 '12 % Markets % Earnings Retail Lubricants Aviation Bulk # sites # markets Fuels Fuels # markets # markets DIRECT
Slide 20: Upgrade Chemicals Assets: Example US Gulf
UPGRADE CHEMICALS ASSETS EXAMPLE US GULF GAS FEEDSTOCK ADVANTAGE FIXED COST REDUCTION Gas ($/MMBTU) Crude ($/bbl) Norco & Deer Park Fixed Costs (indexed to 2007) 25 150 20 100 15 10 50 5 0 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2007 2008 2009 GAS CRUDE US GULF COAST CHEMICALS FEEDSLATE Reconfigure assets to improv
Slide 21: Growth Delivery
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC GROWTH DELIVERY 21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 22: Converting Resources to Production
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION Bln Boe resources Longer-term upside Longer-term upside Strong portfolio of projects under Exploration: construction Australia Gas 30 N. America Tight Gas > 11 billion Boe resources Gulf of Mexico CONCEPT CONCEPT SELECTION SELECTION Prelude Maintaining momentum f
Slide 23: Growing SEC Proved Reserves Position
GROWING SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION 2007-09 RESERVES ADDITIONS 2009 RESERVES PERFORMANCE Norway 2009 RRR 288% Canada Russia Reserves life at end 2009 ~ 12 years Netherlands Kazakhstan China USA Pearl Qatargas 4 2007-09 RESERVES AVG. PERFORMANCE Malaysia Organic3 additions ~ 1.9 billion boe Ni
Slide 24: Delivering on New Projects
DELIVERING ON NEW PROJECTS KEY POST-FID PROJECTS IMPACT OF KEY START-UPS Kboe/d 1,500 Gjoa AOSP-1 Corrib Sakhalin II 1,200 NA Kashagan Ph 1 Schoonebeek Tight gas Port Arthur Iraq SAS Caesar Qatargas 4 Pearl GTL 900 Perdido Tonga Singapore Chemicals Gbaran Harweel Gumusut-Kakap Ubie Ph 1 Qarn Alam 60
Slide 25: Athabasca Oil Sands Phase Expansion
ATHABASCA OIL SANDS PHASE 1 EXPANSION AOSP CASH OPERATING COSTS MINING CAPACITY - INDUSTRY $/bbl Kbbl/d oil sands mining capacity 50 400 Competitors 2009 2015 40 300 30 200 20 10 100 0 0 COS Exxon Shell Conoco Nexen CNRL Marathon Chevron Suncor Mobil 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 FIXED COSTS GAS COSTS Sy
Slide 26: Project Progress in Qatar: GTL + LNG
PROJECT PROGRESS IN QATAR: GTL + LNG QATAR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PEARL GTL: RAMP-UP 2011 % of total capital expenditure Offshore production Kboe/d 100% Shell revenue OFFSHORE GAS 300 Major and production construction entitlement from complete first GTL Pearl + QG4 200 end 2010 50% Major construction c
Slide 27: Leadership in Global LNG
LEADERSHIP IN GLOBAL LNG QATARGAS 4 SHELL‟S GLOBAL LNG PORTFOLIO QG-4 Sakhalin Pluto Gorgon (Woodside) LNG - CONSTRUCTION REGAS POSITION - CONSTRUCTION GRAND ANIVA LNG - OPERATION REGAS POSITION - OPERATION Year end mtpa 30 Courtesy of Qatargas 20 10 26 trains in operation 0 5 trains under const
Slide 28: Growing Upstream Profitability + Production
GROWING UPSTREAM PROFITABILITY + PRODUCTION ADDING TO UPSTREAM UNIT CASH FLOWS CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION $/Boe 100% 40 $60/BBL $80/BBL 20 75% 0 2009 2012 2009+ start ups: 2012 OIL & GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH impact Kboe/d 50% 4,000 25% 3,000 2,000 0% Resources Production Resources Production 1,
Slide 29: New Growth: Downstream Manufacturing
NEW GROWTH: DOWNSTREAM MANUFACTURING PORT ARTHUR REFINERY EXPANSION +325 Kb/d to create 600 Kb/d site 2012 start-up SINGAPORE CHEMICALS 750 ktpa MEG 800 ktpa ethylene cracker 2009-10 start-up 29 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 30: New Growth: Downstream Marketing
NEW GROWTH: DOWNSTREAM MARKETING GLOBAL LUBRICANTS MARKET SHARE SYNTHETIC LUBES GROWTH % Global Lubricants demand growth (MT) Unit Margin $/bbl SHELL 13 3.8 4.8 Synthetics EXXON MOBIL 11 9 35.5 35.1 Main grade BP 7 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 SOURCE: KLINE 2008 2012 Main grade Synthetic GLOBAL BRAND
Slide 31: Maturing Next Generation Project Options
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS 31 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 32: Growth Landscape
GROWTH LANDSCAPE CHANGING LANDSCAPE SHELL RESPONSE FOR MEDIUM TERM Increased oil price outlook Positioning for price upside Traditional basin decline Exploration step-up Resources access Tight gas and CBM Nigeria challenges Monetize Australia gas Slower pace and higher cost in Caspian + Alberta Iraq
Slide 33: 2009 Exploration & Appraisal Success
2009 EXPLORATION & APPRAISAL SUCCESS 2009 ACREAGE ACCESS West Canada DISCOVERY APPRAISAL SUCCESS Carnarvon Basin Gulf of Mexico RESOURCE ADDITIONS Bln Boe 2.5 OIL GAS 2 1.5 2009 exploration adds 2.4 Bln Boe 1 5-year exploration average >1.5 Bln Boe/ year 0.5 5 year average finding costs $2-3/boe 0 '
Slide 34: Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
DEEPWATER GULF OF MEXICO W. Boreas, S. Deimos Mars B • Shell 100% (operator) • Feasibility study for TLP, Shell 72% • >150 million boe resources (operator) • ~100 kboe/d potential Vito • >200 million boe resources • ~100 kboe/d potential • Shell 55% (operator) Perdido Spar • On-stream 2010 • Industr
Slide 35: Australia Gas: 2009 Drilling Success
AUSTRALIA GAS: 2009 DRILLING SUCCESS BUILDING A STRONG INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO 0 200 KM Libra/ Crux Browse North West Shelf 0 200 KM Concerto, Prelude Kentish Knock Achilles, Satyr, and YellowGlen FLNG concept in FEED Gas discovery Potential resources for Gorgon Train > 1 Tcf addition to >2
Slide 36: Australia Underpins Next Tranche of Shell LNG Growth
AUSTRALIA UNDERPINS NEXT TRANCHE OF SHELL LNG GROWTH SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY GROWTH Mtpa Curtis Island 40 Others Greater Sunrise QG4 Gorgon Prelude Prelude 30 Pluto (Woodside) Browse 20 Pluto (Woodside) North 10 West Shelf Gorgon 0 2009 2010-15 ~2020 ONSTREAM CONSTRUCTION DESIGN OPTIONS NEW HUB EX
Slide 37: North America Tight Gas: Portfolio Build-up
NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS: PORTFOLIO BUILD-UP TIGHT GAS PORTFOLIO PRODUCTION GROWTH Kboe/d Mmscf/d 150 + 62 % 875 West Canada 120 700 Pinedale 90 525 Haynesville JV 60 350 South Texas 30 175 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 PINEDALE SOUTH TEXAS HAYNESVILLE WEST CANADA 21 Tcfe (3.7 bln boe) resources posit
Slide 38: North America Tight Gas Growth Potential & Cost Performance
NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS GROWTH POTENTIAL & COST PERFORMANCE SPEND OVERVIEW PRODUCTION & POTENTIAL $ Bln Kboe/d Bcf/d 500 3 8 400 6 2 300 4 200 Potential 1 2 100 0 0 0 2004-05 2006-07 2008 2009 2010 2020 2004-05 2006-07 2008 2009 2010-11 ~2020 EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT ACQUISITION ON STREAM UNDER CONST
Slide 39: North America Heavy Oil Potential
NORTH AMERICA HEAVY OIL POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND POTENTIAL Kboe/d MINING 400 IN SITU OIL AOSP Expansions OIL SHALE Carmon Creek Peace River Athabasca AOSP Debottlenecking 200 AOSP -1 Cold Lake AOSP + In Situ Colorado 0 2008-09 2010-11 ~2020+ ONSTREAM CONSTRUCTION OPTIONS OIL SANDS
Slide 40: Progress with New Iraq Opportunities
PROGRESS WITH NEW IRAQ OPPORTUNITIES MAJNOON DEGASSING STATION MAJNOON DEVELOPMENT Current production ~45,000 Boe/d Oil in place > 38 billion Boe Leveraging existing infrastructure MAJNOON OUTLOOK Potential for ~1.8 mln Boe/d production in ~2017 Majnoon West Qurna-1 Targeting 175,000 Boe/d
Slide 41: Biofuels: Shell and Cosan Potential
BIOFUELS: SHELL AND COSAN POTENTIAL PROPOSED SHELL COSAN JV (50/50) Retail and aviation Leading position in Brazil fuel ~1,600 retail stations in Brazil distribution: ~4,500 stations World‟s largest biofuels Leading producer of sugar and Fully integrated leader in the biofuel distributor
Slide 42: New Portfolio Options for Post-2014 Growth
NEW PORTFOLIO OPTIONS FOR POST- 2014 GROWTH RESOURCES OPTIONS >8 BILLION BOE SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FID OPTIONS TO ~2020 Bln boe 8 >8 billion boe resources HEAVY OIL & EOR 6 SOUR ~35 new projects TIGHT GAS Studies on further options + new exploration 4 LNG Portfolio can support growth to ~2020 DEEP
Slide 43: Financial Framework, Simon Henry, CFO
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 43 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 44: Five Year Performance Track Record
FIVE YEAR PERFORMANCE TRACK RECORD CASH FLOW GENERATION INVESTMENTS AND RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS $ Bln $/bbl $ Bln 25 50 15 90 40 5 30 -5 70 20 -15 10 -25 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 FREE CASH FLOW * OIL PRICE (RHS) NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT SHARE BUY BACKS DIVIDENDS * CASH FL
Slide 45: Converting Investment to Cashflow: 2009-12
CONVERTING INVESTMENT TO CASHFLOW: 2009-12 CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION $ Bln 50 Roll-over of capex to cashflow 2009-12 40 30 Group cashflow outlook 2009-2012 20 2009 CFFO $24 billion (ex working capital) 10 0 Increase of ~50% in $60/bbl scenario 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Incr
Slide 46: Investment and Balance Sheet
INVESTMENT AND BALANCE SHEET BALANCE SHEET MANAGEMENT Gearing % Capital spending outlook 30% • > 80% of total spending in Upstream 20% Gearing range • Annual spend assessed against choices + macro environment 10% Balance sheet flexibility 0% • 0-30% gearing through cycle 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Slide 47: Exploration & Development Plans
EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT PLANS Claire Phase 2 North Tempa Rossa America CMOC Tight Gas Mars B Stones Amin Waterflood Cardamon Vito Champion Deep Rabab/Harweel Waterflood Gbaran Ubie Ph. 2 Bonga North Sabah Gas KBB Malikai BC10 Phase 2 Prelude Sunrise BS-4 Curtis Island LNG 2010 2010-11 2010-11 EXPL
Slide 48: Upstream Regional Outlook
UPSTREAM REGIONAL OUTLOOK Europe Americas Strong net cash generation; managed decline Multiple growth opportunities; sustained investment 0 Gjoa, Italy onshore 200North400 oil, Sea Gas600 800 1000 1200 0 Vito, 1400 AOSP, Tight Gas, 200 Mars B 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Production Production CFFO CFF
Slide 49: Financial Framework
FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK CASH PERFORMANCE ~50-80% CFFO increase 2009-12 $60 - $80/bbl oil price scenarios Surplus cash flow 2012 at $60/bbl PAY-OUT INVESTMENT Dividend linked to business results $ 25-27 billion net capex /year Scrip dividend option Up to $3 billion/year asset sales >$10 bil
Slide 50: Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER 50 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 51: Strategy Timeline
STRATEGY TIMELINE MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH PERFORMANCE FOCUS REJUVENATING PORTFOLIO: UPSTREAM & DOWNSTREAM 2004 2008 2012 2015+ 51 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 52: Summary
SUMMARY • Upstream growth potential to ~2020 MATURING NEXT GENERATION • 8 billion Boe resources; 35 new projects OF PROJECT OPTIONS • Financial growth in focus • 2009-14 oil & gas growth; +11% 2009-12 NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION • Enhanced Downstream portfolio GROWTH • Substantial cashflow growth: ~+50-8
Slide 53: Strategy Update Q&A
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC STRATEGY UPDATE Q&A 53 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 54: Strategy Update Appendix
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC STRATEGY UPDATE APPENDIX 54 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 16/03/2010
Slide 55: 2007-2009 Reserves Summary
2007-2009 RESERVES SUMMARY RESERVES IN MLN BOE Movements 2007 2008 2009 Organic1 reserves additions 1,504 1,132 3,158 Year end price effect -183 19 260 Production -1,210 -1,189 -1,187 Acquisition & divestment -1,115 13 2 Total subsidiaries and affiliates movements 206 1,164 3,420 Year end positions
Slide 56: Key Projects Under Construction
KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Start up Project Country Shell Share Peak Production LNG 100% Products Theme Shell % kboe/d Capacity Operated mtpa 2010-11 AOSP EXP 1 CANADA 60 106 CAESAR/TONGA USA 22.5 51 GBARAN UBIE PH 1 NIGERIA 30 250 GJOA NORWAY 12 107 HARWEEL OMAN 34 43 NORTH AMERICA TIGHT G
Slide 57: Project Management + Performance
PROJECT MANAGEMENT + PERFORMANCE PROJECT STATUS Construction time elapsed % Singapore Chemicals Perdido Assess Select Define FID Execute Gbaran Ubie Ph1 Harweel Feasibility Concept Project Qatargas 4 Study Selection Specifications Construction Gjoa AOSP Expansion 1 Pearl GTL Schoonebeek Qarn Alam St
Slide 58: Strong Portfolio of Pre-FID Options
STRONG PORTFOLIO OF PRE-FID OPTIONS POTENTIAL 2014-2020 START-UPS Phase Project Country Shell share Peak production LNG (100%) Theme Shell operated 100% capacity STUDY Bonga North Nigeria 55 95 Bonga South West Nigeria 55 110 HEAVY OIL & Bosi Field Development Nigeria 44 130 EOR Erha North Ph 3
Slide 59: 2007-2009 Drilling Performance
2007-2009 DRILLING PERFORMANCE Start up Well name Country Shell Share Location Water depth Oil/Gas Shell % Operated 2007 NW-Sabah (Petai-1) Malaysia 20 Offshore ~1400m OG Persephone 1 Australia NWS 22 Offshore ~1125m G Agatha Nigeria 30 Onshore O Prelude (+Toccatta appraisal) Australia 1 Offsh