Portland General Electric Co · NYSE:POR
Portland General Electric — Technical Presentation (May 2017)
66 slides from Portland General Electric's technical presentation, May 10, 2017
Slide 1: Integrated Resource Planning Roundtable 17-2
Integrated Resource Planning Roundtable 17-2 May 10, 2017 1
Slide 2: Meeting Logistics
Meeting Logistics Local Participants: World Trade Center facility Wireless internet access • Network: 2WTC_Event • Password: 2WTC_Event$ Sign-in sheets Virtual Participants: Ask questions via ‘chat’ feature Meeting will stay open during breaks, but will be muted Electronic version of pre
Slide 3: Safety Moment: Oroville Dam
Safety Moment Oroville Dam cu ft/sec Generators: 16,950 River bypass: 5,400 Main spillway: 150,000 E- spillway: uncontrolled Completed 1968 770 feet high– tallest earthen dam in US Edward Hyatt Pumped-Storage Hydro Plant Capacity 819 MW (generation) Net Load 519 MW (consumption) Portland General Ele
Slide 4: Lake Oroville Spillway Incident: Timeline of Major Events
By California Department of Water Resources - Lake Oroville Spillway Incident: Timeline of Major Events February 4-20, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=56768391 Portland General Electric 4
Slide 5: Safety Moment: Oroville Dam
Safety Moment Oroville Dam More information: https://twitter.com/CANGJ3OPS http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/california-oroville-dam-spillway-failure/ http://www.npr.org/2015/10/11/447181629/aging-and-underfunded-americas- dam-safety-problem-in-4-charts Portland General Electric 5
Slide 6: Today's Roundtable Topics
Today’s Roundtable Topics 9:00a Start 9:00a Welcome / Safety Moment 9:15a 2016 IRP Update 9:45a IRP Process Deep Dive 10:45a Break (15 minutes) 11:00a IRP Development Schedule 11:30a Resource Options & Resource Cost Studies 12:15p Lunch (30 minutes) 12:45p PGE’s Inputs EE 1:15p Energy Efficiency Cos
Slide 7: 2016 IRP Update
2016 IRP Update Franco Albi
Slide 8: 2016 IRP Progress
2016 IRP Progress Demand Reduction Energy Efficiency: RPS Renewable Value Capacity Need 176 MW Demand Response: 77 MW RPS Renewables RFP for up to ~175 MWa of RPS resources Maximize PTC value Potential NPVRR savings of ~ $170M Capacity 561 MW capacity Schedule Pursuing bilateral negoti
Slide 9: Renewable Value
Renewable Value Economics support renewable acquisition now to capture value of federal Production Tax Credits for customers Acquisition with PTC value vs Delay SB1547 RPS obligations 2020 COD 2016$, Commercial Operation Date (COD) Year % of Retail Load millions 2018 2019 2020 2021 maximizes 100% 20
Slide 10: Capacity Need
Capacity Need Action Plan working as intended; allows for load forecast updates and new executed contracts to reduce need ahead of RFP At a minimum, 240MW of the remaining capacity need must be annual dispatchable Portland General Electric 10
Slide 11: Bilateral Discussions
Bilateral Discussions “[I]t makes sense to explore any compelling and time-limited opportunity to acquire existing capacity, particularly while market prices are historically low” PGE is always – PGE Reply Comments exploring • PGE continues to pursue bilateral discussions to determine opportunities
Slide 12: Benchmark Resources
Benchmark Resources PGE has identified a potential benchmark wind resource and is exploring the development of an energy storage site PGE continues Wind Benchmark to explore the • PGE has identified a wind project with a nameplate possibility of capacity of up to approximately 500 MW and located in
Slide 13: IRP Acknowledgement Schedule
IRP Acknowledgement Schedule OPUC Order expected on or before August 31, 2017 9.5 months OPUC Process 14‐day data request 7‐day (best efforts) data request 67 days Reply 1 +4 weeks 42 days Comment 2 +2 weeks 42 days Reply 2 +1 week 35 days Staff Memo +2 weeks 34 days OPUC Order +2 weeks _ IRP Filed
Slide 14: IRP Process Deep Dive
IRP Process Deep Dive Elaine Hart Kate von Reis Baron
Slide 15: IRP Modeling Process
IRP Modeling Process Feedback from Stakeholders at Roundtable #16-2 suggested that a more detailed discussion of the IRP modeling process would provide Stakeholders with important context. Goals for today: Describe the IRP modeling process at a high level Establish a recurring map to help place
Slide 16: IRP Modeling Process
IRP Modeling Process The IRP modeling process has three primary steps, which inform the IRP Action Plan Both the modeling process and the development of the Action Plan rely on a common set of foundational principles and values Portland General Electric 16
Slide 17: IRP Modeling Process
IRP Modeling Process The primary steps utilize input data developed in a number of sub- processes, summarized by four areas below Portland General Electric 17
Slide 18: IRP Modeling Process
IRP Modeling Process Zoom in on “Load Forecast” to focus on the energy efficiency forecasting process Portland General Electric 18
Slide 19: Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency Long-term energy efficiency forecast process Portland General Electric 19
Slide 20: Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency Short-term energy efficiency forecast process Portland General Electric 20
Slide 21: IRP Modeling Process
IRP Modeling Process Zoom in on “Resource Options” to focus on Supply-side Resource Options Portland General Electric 21
Slide 22: Supply-side Resources
Supply-side Resources Performance and cost parameters for supply-side resources Portland General Electric 22
Slide 23: Technical Meetings
Technical Meetings Topics of interest for focused discussions Load forecast The IRP Portfolio construction process will Portfolio scoring include AURORA modeling technical RPS strategy meetings to Additional topics? focus on the details of key topics Portland General Electric 23
Slide 24: IRP Development Schedule
IRP Development Schedule Shauna Jensen
Slide 25: IRP Development Schedule
IRP Development Schedule Portland General Electric 25
Slide 26: Resource Options & Resource Cost Studies
Resource Options & Resource Cost Studies Sima Beitinjaneh
Slide 27: Supply side options in the 2016 IRP
Supply side options in the 2016 IRP • In March 2015, PGE commissioned Black & Veatch and DNV-GL to develop technical and financial assumptions Consultants developed • Final reports were obtained at the end of 2015. cost and • Results of the studies are described in detail in Chapter 7 technical • Fu
Slide 28: Supply side options in the next IRP
Supply side options in the next IRP • For the 2016 IRP update, PGE is planning to engage Black & Veatch and DNV-GL to refresh the cost estimates In the next • For the next IRP, PGE will work with consultants to develop IRP, PGE will new studies with the goal of identifying and including an work with
Slide 29: Universe of Supply Side Resources
PNW Wind Montana Universe of Offshore Supply Side Renewables Variable Solar Tracking PV Resources Fixed Wave Load Hydro Hydro Kinetics (in stream) Tidal CCCT Portfolio Supply Construction Side ELCC Gas SCCT Geothermal Recips Biomass Thermal CHP Capacity Resources Demand Central Side Nuclear Modular
Slide 30: Resources considered in the 2016 IRP
PNW In dark green, Wind Montana Supply Side Offshore Resources Renewables Variable Solar Tracking PV considered in Fixed the 2016 IRP Wave Load Hydro Hydro Kinetics (in stream) Tidal CCCT Portfolio Supply Construction Side ELCC Gas SCCT Geothermal Recips Biomass Thermal CHP Capacity Resources Demand
Slide 31: 2016 IRP Supply options cost
Thermodynamic Renewable Energy Storage Resources Resources Resources • Ten Cost Parameters What are the fixed and variable costs 2016 IRP of the resource? Supply options cost • Thirteen Technical Parameters and technical What are capabilities of the resource? parameters • Technical Maturity Outl
Slide 32: Cost and Technical Parameters of Thermodynamic and Storage Resources
Cost Parameters Technical Parameters Overnight EPC and total capital Net plant heat rate cost Capital cost standard deviation Average design life net heat rate, including degradation Fixed O&M Fuel consumption vs output Cost and To include: table of tech and fin parameters Technical Nonfuel variable
Slide 33: Cost and Technical Parameters of Renewable Resources
Cost Assumptions Technical Assumptions Total overnight capital cost Capacity/ capacity factor Standard deviation from Power curve average overnight capital cost Cost and Escalation rate for capital Expected FOR Technical cost over next 20 years Parameters of Fixed O&M with breakdown Panel and invert
Slide 34: Timeline of Development of New Resource Options and Assumptions
Timeline of Resource types Development Update 2016 IRP assumptions Initiate study to develop and parameters Study results ready to include in modeling new resource options finalized of New assumptions Resource Options and Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Assumptions for the Next IRP 2017 2018 Progress and results will b
Slide 35: Energy Efficiency Cost Effectiveness Methodology
Energy Efficiency Cost Effectiveness Methodology Portland General Electric Energy Trust of Oregon
Slide 36: Background
Background Energy Efficiency Legislative Acts o SB 1149 o SB 838 Energy Trust of Oregon Process o PGE collects funds o ETO develops and administers the program Portland General Electric 36
Slide 37: Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency Energy Trust of Oregon Long-term EE Forecasting Portland General Electric 37
Slide 38: Energy Trust of Oregon Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Study
Energy Trust of Oregon Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Study May 10th, 2017
Slide 39: Agenda
Agenda • About Energy Trust • Purpose & background • Process • Results • Questions
Slide 40: About Energy Trust
About • Independent nonprofit • Serving 1.5 million customers of Portland General Electric, Pacific Power, NW Natural and Cascade Natural Gas • Providing access to affordable energy • Generating homegrown, renewable power • Building a stronger Oregon and SW Washington
Slide 41: Resource Assessment Overview
Resource Assessment Overview What is a resource assessment? • Estimate of cost-effective energy efficiency resource potential that is achievable over a 20-year period (2017-2036) Energy Trust uses a model in Analytica that was developed by Navigant
Slide 42: Background – How is RA used?
Background – How is RA used? • Informs utility IRP work & strategic planning / program planning • Does not dictate what annual savings are acquired by programs • Does not set incentive levels 42
Slide 43: Inputs
Inputs: • Utility Service Territory Data (from PGE) • Customer counts, 20-year load forecasts • Line losses, avoided costs, discount rate • Building characteristics • Heating & hot water fuel, measure saturations • Measure assumptions • Savings, costs, O&M, NEBs, measure life, load profile, end use,
Slide 44: Resource Assessment Model Diagram
@® Diagram - GUI ETO Resource Assessment Model » GUI > Nie 7 EnergyTrust of Oregon 2014 ETO Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Study NAVIGANT [Eto Resource Assessment Model » GUI » Model Details >
Slide 45: Outputs
Outputs: Not technically Technical Potential feasible Not technically Achievable Potential feasible Market barriers Not technically Cost-Effective Market barriers Not cost feasible Potential effective
Slide 46: Mid Value of Cumulative Potential by Customer Segment
Mid Value of Cumulative Potential by Customer Segment (MWh, MW, MM Therms) Ba v Totals | | 10,919 11,100 11,534 11,814 11,971 12,167 12,366 12,608 12,771 18 28 28 29 23 36 368 36 36 29,317 32,499 35,166 41,511 43,841 46,268 48,367 50,445 52,128 84,811 85,950 87,052 96,913 98,173 99,277, 101,046 102,
Slide 47: Determining Cost-effectiveness
Determining Cost-effectiveness Total Resource Cost (TRC) BCR = ∗ NEBs = quantifiable non-energy benefits
Slide 48: Avoided Costs
Avoided Costs 1+RegionalCredit)*P15*(1 Avoided Cost Calculation Weighted Capacity Premium . . ey Measure a Avoided Costs | Levelized Cost Real Value Lif avoided Cost Adders Adder (NPV/kWh) ($/kWh) for RA ife or ($/kWh) ($/kWh) ($/kWh) a $0.0745 $0.0756 $0.0766 $0.0789 =(1+RegionalCredit) $0.0815 $ $
Slide 49: Avoided Costs continued
Avoided Costs continued A Real Annual Avoided Cost (2017S) Lifetimes (years) Code | Friendly Name Lo 3 4 R-All-Ref-Refrig-All-All-C Res Refrigerator 0.0000 / 0.0614 0.0690 R-All-Ref-Freezer-All-All-R Res Freezer 0.0000 0.0611 0.0687 R-All-Plug-Dryer-All-All-R Res Dryer 0.0000 0.0852 0.0927 R-AlIl-WH
Slide 50: Updates for the 2016 IRP
Updates for the 2016 IRP • Refreshed measure assumptions • Incremental measure definitions • Better treatment of codes & standards • New approach to emerging technologies
Slide 51: Incremental Measure Definition
Incremental Measure Definition Energy Savings Energy Savings Cost Cost :$1 :$3 Cost Cost :$2 :$2 CFL LED CFL LED Numbers are for illustrative purposes only
Slide 52: Emerging Technologies
Emerging Technologies • Include some emerging technologies • Factor in changing performance, cost over time • Use risk factors to hedge against uncertainty
Slide 53: Risk Factor for Emerging Technologies
Risk Factor for Emerging Technologies Risk 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% Category High Risk: Low Risk: • Requires new/changed • Trained contractors business model • Established business Market • Start-up, or small models Risk manufacturer • Already in U.S. Market (25% • Significant changes to • Manufacturer c
Slide 54: Emerging Technologies
Emerging Technologies Residential Commercial Industrial • LED Lighting • LED Lighting • LED Lighting • CO2 Heat Pump • Advanced Rooftop • Advanced Water Heaters Unit A/C refrigeration • Advanced Heat • Evaporative coolers controllers Pumps • Energy Recovery • Advanced motor • Home ventilators techno
Slide 55: Example Measure: Residential Heat Pump Water Heater
Example Measure: Residential Heat Pump Water Heater- Tier 1, Heating Zone 1 Key Measure Inputs: • Baseline: 0.9 EF Water Heater ($590) • Measure Cost: $1,230-$1,835 ($600 RETC) • Competing Measures: Tier 2 HPWH, CO2 HPWH • Lifetime:12 years • Conventional (not emerging, no risk adjustment) • Custome
Slide 56: Example Measure: Residential Heat Pump Water Heater
Example Measure: Residential Heat Pump Water Heater- Tier 1, Heating Zone 1
Slide 57: Example Measure- Tier 1 HPWH
Example Measure- Tier 1 HPWH CE Achievable Potential x Deployment Curves = Deployed DSM Savings
Slide 58: Example Measure- Incremental Savings
Example Measure- Incremental Savings
Slide 59: Results
Results
Slide 60: Energy Efficiency Supply Curve
Energy Efficiency Supply Curve 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Potential (MWh) Approximate cost- effectiveness limit: 3,000,000 $0.053/kWh 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Levelized Cost ($/kWh)
Slide 61: Energy Efficiency Deployment - Cumulative
Energy Efficiency Deployment - Cumulative 600 500 Cumulative Reportable aMW 400 300 200 100 Base Case Deployment All Achievable Scenario 0
Slide 62: Highest-Saving Cost-effective Measures
Highest-Saving Cost-effective Measures Residential Commercial Industrial • CFL & LED lighting • Strategic energy • Fan & pump system • Efficient new homes management controls • Heat pump water • HVAC controls • Strategic energy heaters • Ventilation controls management • Showerheads/aerator • LED li
Slide 63: Contribution of Emerging Technologies
Contribution of Emerging Technologies 6,000,000 Cumulative Potential (MWh) 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Technical Achievable Cost-effective Conventional Emerging
Slide 64: Comparison to 7th Power Plan
Comparison to 7" Power Plan Figure 3. Comparison of Energy Trust and 7“ Plan Economic Potential as a Percentage of Forecast Load Percentage of Forecast Load wn Ss 2 oD 2 ° a 2 = ° < fe} ° Ww 2 re) > a <= o <= w 2 =} 3S = £ s Oo Residential Commercial Industrial and Agricultural m Energy Trust 7th Pl
Slide 65: Energy Trust compared to 7th Power Plan
Energy Trust compared to 7th Power Plan Energy Trust has; • Higher measure saturations than the region as a whole • Lower electric space & water heat saturation • Fewer savings from codes and standards • More savings in the near term, fewer in out years
Slide 66: Thank You
Thank You Adam Shick, Sr. Planning Project Manager adam.shick@energytrust.org 503.445.2953
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