Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. Class A · TSX:SFC
Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. Class A — Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management — Investor Presentation (July 2009)
29 slides from Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. Class A's investor presentation, July 2009
Slide 1: Barbados Presentation 2009
Barbados Presentation 2009 July 2009 Hugo Mantilla Executive Director Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management 200 South Biscayne Blvd, 51st Floor | Miami, FL 33131 Phone: +1 305 533-5326 Hugo.Mantilla@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management is a division of Morgan Stanley Smith B
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Section 1 Are we on our way back? Section 2 Worries Section 3 Tactical Asset Allocation 1. The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. 2. P
Slide 3: Economic Recovery?
Section 1 Economic Recovery? 2
Slide 4: Signals of Improving Conditions
SIGNALS OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS •GDP GDP Showing signs of having bottomed out •Industrial Industrial production on the rise •Unemployment Unemployment figures showing signs of improving •2009 2009 Trade balance figures compared to 2008 are showing positive signs 1. The indicies are unmanaged. An inv
Slide 5: Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product Q2 1991 to Q1 2009 (Chained 2000 Dollars) mw OoONM & D & & Percentage Change (%) ro) & 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 Q2 03 Q4& Q2 3 4 a1 Q2 Q3 04 a1 Q@2 03 Q4 a Date Source! U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis G
Slide 6: Mild Recovery
Mild Recovery 1. The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. 2. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see Glossary and Other Importan
Slide 7: Charts of the Month: World Industrial Production
CHARTS OF THE MONTH World Industrial Production As of May 2009 “With data in for all the major economies for March, it looks like global production will M/M have its first positive month since the middle of last year … But with most 4% countries now reporting for March, it looks like only slightly l
Slide 8: The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are
1. The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. 2. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see Glossary and Other Important Disclosures
Slide 9: Trade Balances: Now and a Year Ago
CHARTS OF THE MONTH Trade Balances: Now and a Year Ago As of May 2009 “Global trade imbalances have shrunk dramatically over the last year … But in this $ BN cycle, the reduction in trade imbalances 400 has been driven mainly by lower trade activity overall. With the exception of some emerging marke
Slide 10: Charts of the Month
CHARTS OF THE MONTH 1. The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. 2. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see Glossary and Other Im
Slide 11: Concerns
Section 2 Concerns Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Manage~ent
Slide 12: Lingering Concerns
LINGERING CONCERNS •Home Home prices still need to show they are bottoming out. •Consumer Consumer still left with a weak personal balance sheet. •Stimulus Stimulus has been aggressive leaving the US dollar and the credibility of the US weak. •Foreign Foreign financing has picked up but must return
Slide 13: Developed World Home Price Growth
CHARTS OF THE MONTH Developed World Home Price Growth As of May 2009 “The housing market was symptomatic of the global leveraging up process until a Y/Y couple years ago, and was the first major 0% market to turn down when the de-levering started … Housing prices have now been falling across the wor
Slide 14: Treasury Supply
CHARTS OF THE MONTH Treasury Supply Richard Berner and David Greenlaw note, “ As of May 2009 the recent backup in Treasury yields and steepening in the Treasury yield curve fits Gross Treasury Coupon Issuance ($ BN) our script for renormalizing rates in recovery … Indeed, we think that the main 2,50
Slide 15: The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are
1. The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. 2. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see Glossary and Other Important Disclosures
Slide 16: The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are
1. The indicies are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. 2. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please see Glossary and Other Important Disclosures
Slide 17: Inflation Expectations
TACTICAL ALLOCATION COMMENTARY We are overweight TIPS. Joachim Fels Inflation Expectations says, “the back-up in government bond As of May 2009 yields is neither likely to derail central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE) programs nor the (tepid) economic recovery we 300 UST 10-year Inflation Premium C
Slide 18: Commodities Price Levels
TACTICAL ALLOCATION COMMENTARY Commodities Price Levels As of May 2009 We are overweight real assets. Hussein Price Level ($) Allidina points out that, “oil inventories are 1,200 bloated but drawing, and all indications from cash markets and time spreads are that the crude oil market is tightening a
Slide 19: Tactical Allocation Commentary
Section 3 Tactical Allocation Commentary 18
Slide 20: Tactical Recommendations
Tactical Allocation Commentary S&P 500 (Left) Tactical Recommendations 10Yr Treasury Yield (Right) Moderate Allocation – December 31, 2007 through December 31, 2008 March 2008 Real Assets July 2008 December 2007 US Equities Cash Fixed Income International Hedge funds Equities Cash by 2% 1450 6.0% 5.
Slide 21: Tactical Recommendations
TACTICAL ALLOCATION COMMENTARY Tactical Recommendations Moderate Allocation – May 31, 2008 through May 31, 2009 S&P 500 (Left) 10Yr Treasury Yield (Right) 1500 6.0% September 2008 US Equities April 2009 1400 October 2008 5.5% Short term Equities bonds 1300 Inflation US Equities 5.0% Securities Hedge
Slide 22: Risk/Return Chart
Risk/Return Chart Illustrative: Based on Gross Returns; Gross of anticipated Distributions, as set forth in the Appendix 8.5% Aggressive Model 8.0% Annual Return (Gross) Moderate Model 7.5% 7.0% Conservative 6.5% Model 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% Standard Deviation (Risk) Source: Morgan Stanley
Slide 23: Moderate Asset Allocation
ASSET ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK 20MM+ INVESTORS (MODERATE) Moderate Asset Allocation 27% Alternative Investments 25% Fixed Income Global Inflation-Indexed 42% Equity Securities 4% U.S. Dollar 6% Cash/Cash Equivalent Large Cap Growth Hedge Funds or Fund of 6% 14% Funds 7% Managed Futures Funds 4% Large Ca
Slide 24: Asset Allocation Frameworks for Private Foundations and Endowments
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA, GLOSSARY AND DISCLOSURES Asset Allocation Frameworks: For Selected Private Foundations, Endowments, and Tax-Exempt Investors Investable Assets in Excess of $20 Million (1) The Strategic asset allocation refers to the long-term term investment weightings for the major asset classes
Slide 25: Supplemental Data, Glossary and Disclosures
Section 4 Supplemental Data, Glossary and Disclosures 24
Slide 26: Disclosures
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA, GLOSSARY AND DISCLOSURES Disclosures Investments and services offered through Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, a division of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, and accounts carried by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated; members SIPC. These materials are provided for general
Slide 27: Disclosures
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA, GLOSSARY AND DISCLOSURES Disclosures Different security types carry different risks of investment. • Small/Mid Caps U.S. Equity: Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant st
Slide 28: Disclosures
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA, GLOSSARY AND DISCLOSURES Disclosures • Real Assets: The prices of real assets -precious metals tend to fluctuate widely and in a unpredictable manor, and have historically experienced periods of flat or declining prices. Their prices are affected by several factors, including glob
Slide 29: Citations
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA, GLOSSARY AND DISCLOSURES Citations Citations Name Publication Source Page Date Slide Peters, Greg Credit Basis Report Morgan Stanley 2 5/29/2009 8 Todd, Jason In The Flow Morgan Stanley 4 5/29/2009 9 Rotenberg, Jason Daily Observations Bridgewater 8 5/15/2009 10 Allidina, Hussein
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