Slide 1: Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results
February 28, 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 R E S U LT S
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Safe Harbor Statements (Cont'd)
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENTS (CONT’D) Information About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability "Adjusted EBITDA" (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, tax receivable agreement impacts, reorganization items, and certain other items described from
Slide 4: Agenda
AGENDA I Welcome and Safe Harbor Molly Sorg, VP Investor Relations and Chief Sustainability Officer II 2019 Highlights Curt Morgan, President and Chief Executive Officer III Current Topics Curt Morgan, President and Chief Executive Officer IV Financial Highlights David Campbell, Executive Vice Presi
Slide 5: 2019 Highlights
2019 Highlights Curt Morgan Chief Executive Officer V i s t ra E nergy I nv es t or P res ent at i on / Q4 2019
Slide 6: Delivering on Financial Guidance
DELIVERING ON FINANCIAL GUIDANCE In each of Vistra’s four years as a publicly traded company it has delivered financial results above the midpoint of its guidance ($ millions) Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Reported Adjusted Exceeded Year Guidance1, 2 Guidance Midpoint2 EBITDA2 Guidance Target? 201
Slide 7: Creating Value and Returning Capital
CREATING VALUE AND RETURNING CAPITAL Vistra grew EBITDA by more than 100% at attractive returns in less than 4 years and returned nearly $5 billion to stakeholders in just over 3 years GROWTH VIA ACQUISITION GROWTH VIA INVESTMENT Returns exceeding investment threshold of Returns exceeding investment
Slide 8: Strong Fundamentals
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS Vistra’s business model is well-positioned to continue delivering strong and consistent results in the years ahead 1. FINANCIAL 2. LOW-COST 3. DIVERSIFICATION DISCIPLINE OPERATIONS Low debt; Lowest costs through lean exhibit discipline toward Improved risk profile growth investme
Slide 9: Strong Fundamentals Continued
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS CONTINUED 4. LEADING RETAIL 5. IN-THE-MONEY 6. COMMERCIAL PLATFORM FLEET OPTIMIZATION Results in higher Highly efficient Manage risk fleet of primarily gas- while integrated margins and greater fueled or low-cost assets optimizing value stability of earnings that are critical to
Slide 10: 2019 Financial Highlights
2019 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 2019 Financial Results Ongoing Operations ($ millions) 2019 Adjusted EBITDA1 $3,393 nearly 72% 2019 Adjusted FCFbG1 $2,437 FCF Conversion • Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1: – Results above increased guidance midpoint – Excluding in-year impact of ($40) million due to re
Slide 11: Current Topics: Reducing Coal Exposure
Current Topics: Reducing Coal Exposure Curt Morgan Chief Executive Officer V i s t ra E nergy I nv es t or P res ent at i on / Q4 2019
Slide 12: Meaningfully Reduced Coal Exposure
MEANINGFULLY REDUCED COAL EXPOSURE Through retirements of seven coal plants in Texas and Illinois and growth investments in retail, gas, solar, and batteries, coal is an increasingly smaller portion of Vistra’s portfolio Revenues1 EBITDA2 Capacity by Fuel Type 13% 32% 2017 34% 40% 45% Retail 54% 42%
Slide 13: Expect Further Reduction of Coal with Investment in Retail and Renewables
EXPECT FURTHER REDUCTION OF COAL WITH INVESTMENT IN RETAIL AND RENEWABLES 1 Over the next 10 years, Vistra expects it will significantly reduce its coal exposure; investing only ~25% of its FCF in retail and renewables leads to EBITDA growth and significant excess free cash flow to return to shareho
Slide 14: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights David Campbell Chief Financial Officer V i s t ra E nergy I nv es t or P res ent at i on / Q4 2019
Slide 15: 2019 Financial Results
2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS Vistra delivered strong full year 2019 results, exceeding management expectations ONGOING OPERATIONS HIGHLIGHTS ADJUSTED EBITDA1 ($ millions) Q4 2019 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA1: $775 million 3,393 • $55 million higher than 4Q18 results driven by retail acquisitions partia
Slide 16: Capital Allocation
CAPITAL ALLOCATION Vistra is committed to achieving its long-term leverage target and anticipates allocating >$1.3 billion of capital toward debt reduction in 2020; long -term capital allocation plan, including significant annual return of capital to shareholders, to be announced in the second half
Slide 17: Q&A
Q&A V i s t ra E nergy I nv es t or P res ent at i on / Q4 2019
Slide 18: Appendix
Appendix V i s t ra E nergy I nv es t or P res ent at i on / Q4 2019
Slide 19: Business Updates
BUSINESS UPDATES ISO-NE FCA 14 Results Merger Value Levers • On track to deliver an estimated $715 million of FCA 13 FCA 14 EBITDA value levers and $320 million of after- VST MWs Cleared 3,231 2,515 tax FCF benefits from Dynegy merger Clearing Price $3.80/kw-mo $2.00/kw-mo Adj. EBITDA Value Levers (
Slide 20: Corporate Debt Profile
CORPORATE DEBT PROFILE ($ millions) 2019A 2019PF 2020E Term Loan B and Funded Revolver1 $3,050 $3,050 $2,673 Senior Secured Notes 3,100 3,100 3,100 Senior Notes2 4,347 4,347 3,600 Other3 722 722 472 Total Long Term Debt $11,219 $11,219 9,845 Less: cash and cash equivalents4 (389) (389) (400) Total N
Slide 21: Select Debt Balances
SELECT DEBT BALANCES FUNDED DEBT TRANCHES As of December 31, 20191 ($ millions) Issuer Series Principal Outstanding Secured Debt Vistra Operations Senior Secured Revolving Credit Loans $350 Vistra Operations Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2025 2,700 Vistra Operations 3.550% Senior Secured
Slide 22: Capital Expenditures
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 2019A - 2020E ($ millions) 2019A 2020E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance1,2 $389 $533 Nuclear Fuel 89 85 Non-Recurring3 65 3 Growth4 104 315 Total Capital Expenditures $647 $935 Non-Recurring3 (65) (3) Growth4 (104) (315) Adjusted Capital Expenditures $478 $618 1
Slide 23: Fourth Quarter Retail Metrics
FOURTH QUARTER RETAIL METRICS Q4 2019 RETAIL HIGHLIGHTS RETAIL VOLUME2 All markets (electric volumes in TWh) ✓ Organically1 grew ERCOT residential customers counts 20.1 in 2019, for the second year, with strong customer 1.6 acquisition and retention strategies and execution 16.1 1.9 2.8 2.3 ✓ Exceed
Slide 24: Fourth Quarter Generation Metrics
FOURTH QUARTER GENERATION METRICS TOTAL GENERATION CAPACITY FACTOR (CCGT) TWhs Q4 2018 Q4 2019 20181 2019 % Q4 2018 Q4 2019 20181 2019 ERCOT 22.0 21.7 85.7 86.9 ERCOT 54% 52% 59% 55% PJM 13.9 11.9 40.5 51.5 PJM 64% 70% 68% 70% NY/NE 4.7 4.6 14.6 18.1 NY/NE 46% 44% 48% 44% MISO 3.2 4.4 12.7 17.2 MISO
Slide 25: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities
HEDGE PROFILE & PORTFOLIO SENSITIVITIES Effective: 12/31/2019 2020 2021 MISO/ MISO/ ERCOT PJM NENY TOTAL ERCOT PJM NENY TOTAL CAISO CAISO Coal/Nuclear/Renewable Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 50 19 - 16 85 46 18 - 15 79 % Hedged 95% 100% - 100% 97% 71% 91% - 45% 71% Net Position 2 0 - 0 2 13
Slide 26: Market Pricing
MARKET PRICING Effective: 12/31/2019 Jan-Dec'20 2021 Jan-Dec'20 2021 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads ($/mwhr) ERCOT North Hub $33.09 $29.46 Approx. Contribution ERCOT West Hub $31.28 $27.50 ERCOT PJM AD Hub $26.33 $27.09 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $14.43 $10.03 PJM Ni Hub $22.56 $22.7
Slide 27: Capacity Position – MISO
CAPACITY POSITION – MISO MISO Capacity Position (excludes PJM exports) Price in $/kw-mo Total Capacity Revenue PY 19/20 MWs 2,128 Average Price $3.69 $94 MM PY 20/21 MWs 1,974 Average Price $3.53 $84 MM PY 21/22 MWs 786 Average Price $3.69 $35 MM MISO Exports to PJM Capacity Position PJM Region Plan
Slide 28: Capacity Positions – PJM
CAPACITY POSITIONS – PJM (excludes MISO Imports) PJM Region Planning Year Average Price MW Position Average Price MW Position ($/MW-day) ($/MW-day) Legacy/Base Product Capacity Performance Product 2019 – 2020 $173.56 539 $97.33 4,852 RTO 2020 – 20211 N/A N/A $93.37 4,989 2021 – 2022 N/A N/A $140.00
Slide 29: Capacity Positions – ISO-NE / NYISO / CAISO
CAPACITY POSITIONS – ISO-NE / NYISO / CAISO ISO/Region Contract Type Average Price MW Position Tenor ISO-NE1 ISO-NE Capacity $6.91/kw-Mo 3,308 June 2019 to May 2020 $5.35/kw-Mo 3,262 June 2020 to May 2021 $4.58/kw-Mo 3,109 June 2021 to May 2022 $3.92/kw-Mo 3,232 June 2022 to May 2023 $2.16/kw-Mo 2,6
Slide 30: Asset Fleet Details
ASSET FLEET DETAILS Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity Ownership Interest Moss Landing 1 & 2 Moss Landing, CA CAISO CCGT Gas 1,020 100% Oakland Oakland, CA CAISO CT Oil 165 100 TOTAL CAISO 1,185 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 100% Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 100
Slide 31: Asset Fleet Details (Cont'd)
ASSET FLEET DETAILS (CONT’D) Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity Ownership Interest Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 100% TOTAL NYISO 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 100% Bellingham NEA Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 157 50 Blackstone Blackstone, M
Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q4 2019 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q4 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Vistra Energy Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated N
Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2019 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2019 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Vistra Energy Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Inco
Slide 34: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2019 Adjusted FCFbG
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2019 ADJUSTED FCFbG VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2019 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Vistra Energy Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA 3,393 (68) 3,325 Interest paid, net (a) (500) - (500) Taxes rec
Slide 35: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q4 2018 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – Q4 2018 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 20181 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Vistra Energy Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated
Slide 36: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2018 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2018 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 20181 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations/ Ongoing Vistra Energy Retail ERCOT PJM NY/NE MISO Corp and Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Inc
Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2017 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2017 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2017 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Energy Retail ERCOT Corp and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income (loss) 495
Slide 38: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2016 Adjusted EBITDA
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2016 ADJUSTED EBITDA VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS FOR YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2016 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Successor (a) Predecessor (b) Period from Period from October 3, 2016 January 1, 2016 through through December 31, 2016 October 2, 2016 Ne
Slide 39: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2020 Guidance
NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS – 2020 GUIDANCE VISTRA ENERGY CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2020 GUIDANCE (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Energy Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 849 1,081 (95) (75) 754 1,006 Income tax expense 252 320 -
Slide 40: End Slide
VICTDA owe = ENERGY END SLIDE