Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC

Exelon — Q4 2014 Earnings Presentation

37 slides from Exelon's earnings presentation, Feb 13, 2015

  1. Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call 4th Quarter 2014

    Exhibit 99.2 Earnings Conference Call th 4 Quarter 2014 th February 13 , 2015

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information

    Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ mat

  3. Slide 3: 2014 In Review

    2014 In Review • Utilities • 2014 adjusted operating results of • Top decile for safety; top quartile for $2.39/share (1) outage frequency • Total shareholder return of 41% • ExGen • Successful ~$3B billion forward equity • Nuclear capacity factor over 94% (2) and mandatory convertible offering • Po

  4. Slide 4: 2015 Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance

    2015 Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance $2.39 (1) $2.25 - $2.55 (2) BGE $0.23 $0.20 - $0.30 BGE Key Year-Over-Year Drivers PECO $0.41 • Total impact of asset divestitures: $0.35 - $0.45 PECO $(0.12) • Additional planned nuclear outage ComEd $0.47 $(0.02) $0.45 - $0.55 ComEd • ExGen Pension/OPEB: $

  5. Slide 5: Adjusted O&M Forecast

    Adjusted O&M Forecast(2) • 2015 forecast of $7.225B (1) • Expect CAGR of ~0.2 % for 2015-2017 $7,225 (1) $6,950 (1) BGE $775 BGE $725 PECO $750 PECO $750 Key Year-over-Year Drivers(2) ComEd • Growth including Integrys & full $1,250 ComEd $1,200 year of CENG: $250M • Inflation: $125M • Plant Divestit

  6. Slide 6: Hedging Activity and Market Fundamentals

    Hedging Activity and Market Fundamentals Heat Rates have expanded throughout 2014 % of Expected Generation Hedged(1) Total Portfolio 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Impacts of our view on our hedging activity • Over the last several quarters, power prices have increased a

  7. Slide 7: Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update

    Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update December 31, 2014 Change from Sept 30, 2014 Gross Margin Category ($M)(1) 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 Open Gross Margin (3) (including South, West, Canada hedged gross $5,700 $5,850 $6,100 $(1,050) $(650) $(550) margin) (3,4) Mark-to-Market of Hedges $1,050 $

  8. Slide 8: Properly Valuing Nuclear Energy

    Properly Valuing Nuclear Energy 7 2014 4Q Earnings Release Slides

  9. Slide 9: Exelon Generation Disclosures

    Exelon Generation Disclosures December 31, 2014 8 2014 4Q Earnings Release Slides

  10. Slide 10: Portfolio Management Strategy

    Portfolio Management Strategy Strategic Policy Alignment Three-Year Ratable Hedging Bull / Bear Program •Aligns hedging program with •Ensure stability in near-term cash •Ability to exercise fundamental financial policies and financial flows and earnings market views to create value within outlook •D

  11. Slide 11: Components of Gross Margin Categories

    Components of Gross Margin Categories Gross margin from Gross margin linked to power production and sales other business activities Open Gross MtM of “Power” New “Non Power” “Non Power” Margin Hedges(2) Business Executed New Business •Generation Gross •Mark to Market •Retail, Wholesale •Retail, Whol

  12. Slide 12: ExGen Disclosures

    ExGen Disclosures Gross Margin Category ($M) (1) 2015 2016 2017 Open Gross Margin(including South, West & Canada hedged GM) $5,700 $5,850 $6,100 (3,4) Mark to Market of Hedges $1,050 $550 $350 Power New Business / To Go $350 $550 $800 Non-Power Margins Executed $200 $100 $50 Non-Power New Business /

  13. Slide 13: ExGen Disclosures

    ExGen Disclosures Generation and Hedges 2015 2016 2017 Exp. Gen (GWh) (1) 191,200 192,400 196,800 Midwest 97,100 97,400 95,900 Mid-Atlantic(2) 62,400 62,900 60,700 ERCOT 16,800 17,300 25,700 New York(2) 9,300 9,300 9,300 New England 5,600 5,500 5,200 (3) % of Expected Generation Hedged 61%-64% 31%-3

  14. Slide 14: ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities

    ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities Gross Margin Sensitivities (With Existing Hedges) (1) 2015 2016 2017 Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/Mmbtu) + $1/Mmbtu $25 $340 $730 - $1/Mmbtu $35 $(310) $(710) NiHub ATC Energy Price + $5/MWh $35 $215 $370 - $5/MWh $(30) $(215) $(365) PJM-W ATC Energy Price + $5/MW

  15. Slide 15: ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk

    ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk 11,000 10,500 10,000 $9,950 9,500 9,000 8,500 $8,350 8,000 $7,800 7,500 7,000 $7,250 6,500 $6,650 6,000 $6,050 5,500 5,000 2015 2016 2017 (1) Represents an approximate range of expected gross margin, taking into account hedges in place, between the 5th and 95th

  16. Slide 16: Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2016 Gross Margin

    Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2016 Gross Margin South, Mid- New Row Item Midwest ERCOT New York West & Atlantic England Canada (A) Start with fleet-wide open gross margin $5.85 billion (B) Expected Generation (TWh) 97.4 62.9 17.3 9.3 5.5 (C) Hedge % (assuming mid-point of range)

  17. Slide 17: Additional Disclosures

    Additional Disclosures 16 2014 4Q Earnings Release Slides

  18. Slide 18: 2014 Adjusted Operating Earnings by Quarter

    2014 Adjusted Operating Earnings by Quarter $0.78 $ 0.05 $ 0.09 $0.62 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 BGE $0.51 $0.48 $ 0.02 $ 0.06 PECO $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.11 ComEd $ 0.11 $ 0.13 $ 0.09 $ 0.50 ExGen $ 0.30 $ 0.27 $ 0.27 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Refer to the Earnings Release Attachments for additional details and to the Appendix fo

  19. Slide 19: Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution

    Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution(1) BGE PECO ComEd KeyDrivers– 4Q14 vs.4Q13: $0.31 $0.06 $0.26 BGE(+0.00): • Higher RNF offset by higher O&M: $(0.00) $0.06 $0.12 PECO (-0.01): • Unfavorable weather conditions: $(0.01) $0.11 ComEd(-0.04): • Impact of bonus depreciation on ComEd’s

  20. Slide 20: ComEd Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015

    ComEd Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015 ($0.01) Storm ($0.02) Inflation $0.11 Distribution ($0.01) Pension/OPEB $0.02 Transmission ($0.01) Other $0.01 Weather/Volumes ($0.06) $0.14 ($0.02) ($0.01) $0.45 - $0.55 ($0.02) $0.47 2014(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Depreciation & Interest Other 2015(4)(5) Amo

  21. Slide 21: PECO Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015

    PECO Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015 $0.41 ($0.00) $0.01 (0.00) ($0.00) ($0.02) $0.35 - $0.45 $0.03 Storm ($0.01) Inflation ($0.02) Storm Tax Repairs ($0.01) Operational/IT Increases Benefit 2014(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Depreciation & Interest Tax 2015(4)(5) Amortization Note: Drivers add up to

  22. Slide 22: BGE Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015

    BGE Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015 $0.04 Pricing/Mix $0.01 Other RNF $0.05 ($0.04) $0.20 - $0.30 $0.23 $0.01 ($0.01) Storm Costs ($0.01) Preventative Maintenance ($0.01) Inflation ($0.01) Other 2014(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Other 2015(4)(5) Note: Drivers add up to mid-point of 2015 adjusted oper

  23. Slide 23: ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015

    ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2014 to 2015 $0.22 Higher Capacity Revenue, Higher retail volumes (primarily Integrys), Plant Performance and Market Conditions $0.04 Impact of full year DOE fee removal ($0.05) Depreciation Additions ($0.22) Plant Divestitures $0.03 Plant Divestitures $1.34 $0.04

  24. Slide 24: 2015 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash

    2015 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash Exelon(3) ($ in millions)(1) BGE ComEd PECO ExGen 2015E Beginning Cash Balance(2) 3,575 (4) Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations 600 2,075 600 3,400 6,775 CapEx (excluding other items below): (675) (1,875) (525) (1,925) (5,100) Nuclear Fuel n/a n/a n/a (1,125) (

  25. Slide 25: Additional 2015 ExGen Modeling

    Additional 2015 ExGen Modeling P&L Item 2015 Estimate (1) ExGen Model Inputs (2) O&M $4,525M (3) Taxes Other Than Income (TOTI) $350M Depreciation & Amortization(4) $925M Interest Expense $400M (1) ExGen amounts for O&M, TOTI and Depreciation & Amortization; excludes EDF’s equity ownership share of

  26. Slide 26: 2015 Regulatory and Legislative Timelines

    2015 Regulatory and Legislative Timelines Supreme Court hearing on Final Clean Illinois Michigan v. Illinois Power Rule Legislative EPA PJM BRA Legislative (111d) Session (MATS) MATS Rule Auction Session Issued Begins (March- in Effect Results Adjourns (Mid- (Jan 14) April) (April) (May 22) (May 31)

  27. Slide 27: Exelon Utilities Load

    Exelon Utilities Load All Customers Residential Small C&I Large C&I ComEd PECO BGE 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -0.7% -0.9% -1.3% -1.9% -2.4% 2014 2015E 2014 2015E 2014 2015E Chicago GMP 1.6% Philadelphia GMP 0.8% Baltimore GMP 1

  28. Slide 28: ComEd April 2014 Distribution Formula Rate

    ComEd April 2014 Distribution Formula Rate The 2014 distribution formula rate filing established the net revenue requirement used to set the rates that took effect in January 2015 after the Illinois Commerce Commission's (ICC’s) review. There are two components to the annual distribution formula rat

  29. Slide 29: BGE Rate Case Settlement

    BGE Rate Case Settlement Electric Gas Docket # 9355 Test Year September 2013 - August 2014 Common Equity Ratio (1)(2) 52.3% Authorized Returns (1)(3) ROE: 9.75%; ROR: 7.46% ROE: 9.65%; ROR: 7.41% Requested Rate of Return 7.93% 7.88% Proposed Rate Base (adjusted) (1)(4) $2.9B $1.2B Revenue Requiremen

  30. Slide 30: Appendix Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures

    Appendix Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures 29 2014 4Q Earnings Release Slides

  31. Slide 31: 4Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation

    4Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation Three Months Ended December 31, 2013 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2013 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $0.21 $0.13 $0.12 $0.06 $(0.02) $0.50 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities 0.16 - - - - 0.16 Unrealized gains related to nucl

  32. Slide 32: 4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation

    4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, 2013 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2013 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $1.40 $0.49 $0.45 $0.23 $(0.07) $2.50 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities 0.35 - - - (0.00) 0.35 Unrealized gains related to nuc

  33. Slide 33: 4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation continued

    4Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliationcontinued - Year Ended December 31, 2014 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2014 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $1.34 $0.47 $0.41 $0.23 $(0.06) $2.39 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities (0.42) - - - - (0.42) Unrealized gains rela

  34. Slide 34: GAAP to Operating Adjustments

    GAAP to Operating Adjustments • Exelon’s 2015 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings excludes the earnings effects of the following: – Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities – Unrealized gains and losses from NDT fund investments to the extent not offset by contractual accountin

  35. Slide 35: Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP

    Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP 2014 Adjusted O&M Reconciliation (in $M) (3) ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon GAAP O&M $5,575 $1,450 $875 $700 $(25) $8,575 PHI Merger and Acquisition Costs - - - - (25) (25) Regulatory O&M(1) - (250) (100) - - (350) Upstream and Power Impairments (525) - - - (2

  36. Slide 36: Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP

    Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP 2015 Adjusted O&M Reconciliation (in $M) (3) ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon GAAP O&M $5,225 $1,550 $850 $775 $(75) $8,350 PHI Acquisition Costs (25) - - - - (25) Regulatory O&M(1) - $(300) (100) - - (425) Decommissioning 25 - - - - 25 Direct cost of sales incu

  37. Slide 37: ExGen Total Gross Margin Reconciliation to GAAP

    ExGen Total Gross Margin Reconciliation to GAAP Total Gross Margin Reconciliation (in $M) (4) 2015 2016 2017 (1)(5) Revenue Net of Purchased Power and Fuel Expense $8,100 $8,000 $8,400 Other Revenues(2) $(250) $(250) $(250) Direct cost of sales incurred to generate revenues for certain $(300) $(350)

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