Ryanair Holdings PLC · EURONEXT:RYA
Ryanair — FY2015 Earnings Presentation
24 slides from Ryanair's earnings presentation, May 2015
Slide 1: FY 2015 Results
FY 2015 Results © Ryanair 2014
Slide 2: Europe's Favourite Airline
Eur ope’s Favourite Air line Europe’s Lowest Fares/Lowest Costs Europe’s No 1, Traffic – 100m Europe’s No 1, Coverage – 73 Bases Europe’s No 1, C’mer Service – Low Fares/On-time/Bags/Canx – “Always Getting Better” Program Fwd Bookings, Ld Factors & Traffic Rising 380 new a/c order = growth to 160mpa
Slide 3: Europe's Lowest Fares
Eur ope’s Lowest Far es Avg. Fare % > Ryanair Ryanair €47 Norwegian €81 +72% easyJet €84 +79% Aer Lingus €94 +100% Air Berlin €120 +155% Lufthansa €230 +389% IAG €231 +391% Air France / KLM €253 +438% Avg Competitor Fare €156 +232% Source: Latest Annual Reports 3 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 4: Europe's Lowest Costs (Ex Fuel)
Eur ope’s Lowest Costs (Ex Fuel) RYA EZY NOR AB1 LUV Spirit Staff €6 €9 €15 €17 €35 €19 Airport & hand €8 €21 €14 €27 €8 €6 Route charges €6 €6 €8 €8 €0 €0 Own’ship & maint. €7 €8 €21 €29 €16 €19 S & M other €2 €7 €4 €26 €15 €15 Total €29 €52 €62 €107 €74 €59 % > Ryanair + 76% +114% +270% +155% +103
Slide 5: Europe's No 1 Coverage
E u r o p e ’s N o 1 C ove r a g e 73 bases 190 airports 30 countries 1,600+ routes 100m c’mers p.a. 315 x B737-800’s 380 x B737s on order 5 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 6: Europe's No 1 Market Share
E u r o p e ’s N o 1 M a r ke t S h a r e Country (Cap m)* No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 Share UK (117) easyjet BA 16% Germany (112) Luft Air Berlin 4% Spain (105) Vueling Iberia 18% Italy (85) Alitalia easyJet 25% France (72) AF- KLM easyJet 7% Portugal (19) TAP easyJet 17% Belgium (15) SN Brussels Jetairfly 2
Slide 7: Europe's No 1 For Traffic Growth
E u r o p e ’s N o 1 Fo r Tr a f f i c G r ow t h 160 2014/15 90.6 65 63 62 57 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 . Source: Latest traffic stats to Dec-14, company forecasts 7 7 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 8: FY 2015 – Profits up 66%
FY 2015 – Profits up 66% Mar 14 Mar 15 Traffic 81.7m 90.6m +11% Load Factor 83% 88% +5% Avg. Fare (incl. bag) €46 €47 +1% Rev. Per Pax €62 €62 +1% Revenue €5,037m €5,654m +12% Net Profit €523m €867m +66% Net Margin 10% +15% +5% 8 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 9: FY 2015 Balance Sheet
FY 2015 Balance Sheet Mar-14 Mar-15 €m €m Aircraft (inc. dep) 5,570 7,389 Cash 3,242 4,796 Total N Cash 8,812 12,185 N Cash €158m €364m(i) Liabilities 2,442 3,718 Debt 3,084 4,432 S/H funds 3,286 4,035 Total 8,812 12,185 (i) Net cash after €520m spec div & €112m buy-back. 9 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 10: Current Developments
Cur r ent Developments “Always Getting Better” - Year 1 delivered - Year 2 rollout Comps can’t match RYR pricing & AGB LF & fwd bookings rising Lowest fares less sensitive to capacity growth Oil & currency well hedged for FY16 FY16 outlook cautious - net profit +10% (sub to yields) 10 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 11: Year 1 AGB Delivered
Ye a r 1 A G B D e l i v e r e d Tell MOL – listening to c’mer Quiet flights Allocated seating 2nd free carry on bag Business Plus & Family Extra Services Group travel service GDS distrib for CTAs Apt fees cut 11 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 12: Year 2 AGB Rollout
Ye a r 2 A G B R o l l o u t New US web-site (Jan) New c’mer charter (Feb) Apt & sport fees cut again (Apr) New personalised app (May) Drop bugle & insurance opt out to go (Sept) New web-site (Oct) Hold fare & price comp. features (Oct) New interiors, uniforms, menus (Nov) 12 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 13: Comps Can't Match RYR Pricing & AGB
C o m p s C a n’ t M at ch RY R P r i c i n g & AG B STN-EDI EZY RYR STN-GLA EZY RYR Oct'14 25,500 - Oct'14 24,000 - Jan'15 16,700 22,300 Jan'15 11,200 21,200 Feb'15 19,600 23,800 Feb'15 12,000 22,500 Mar'15 22,800 25,200 Mar'15 13,700 24,200 LON-CGN EZY (G) RYR (S) LON- LIS EZY (G + L) RYR (S) Oct'
Slide 14: Comps Unable to Match RYR Pricing & AGB
C o m p s U n a b l e t o M at ch RY R P r i c i n g & AG B (i) Dub - UK Aer Lingus Ryanair Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-13 Feb-15 Manchester 52% 40% 48% 60% Birmingham 49% 38% 51% 62% Glasgow 52% 23% 48% 77% Bristol 26% 18% 74% 82% (ii) Dub - EUR Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-13 Feb-15 Madrid 55% 35% 45% 65% Brussels 58%
Slide 15: LF & Fwd Bookings Rising
LF & Fwd Bookings Rising FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16 Apr 81% 84% +3% Apr 84% 91% +7% May 82% 85% +3% (i) Jun 84% 88% +4% Fwd Bookings FY16 Jul 88% 91% +3% May +3% Aug 89% 93% +4% June +4% Sep 85% 90% +5% July +5% Oct 83% 89% +6% Aug +5% Nov 81% 88% +7% Sept +4% Dec 81% 88% +7% Jan 71% 83% +12% Feb 78% 89% +
Slide 16: "Lowest Fares" Less Sensitive to Cap Growth
“Lowest Far es” Less Sensitive to Cap Gr owth Lowest fare model eases capacity growth concerns: – Flags ceding traffic & share (Alit, A Lin, Luft, SAS, LOT) – “LCCs” ceding traffic & share (easyJet, Air Berlin, Norweg) – “LCCs” cut capacity or run away (easyJet, Wizz, Vuel) 380 B-737 order = control
Slide 17: Oil & US$ Well Hedged for FY16
Oil & US$ Well Hedged for FY16 Fuel: - 90% @ $92pbl; 10% @ spot - €1.35 “saving” p/px OpEx: - 90% @ $1.33 (spot $1.11) CapEx: - 100% @ $1.37 (spot $1.11) Above “saving” indicative – spot will change Strong hedged position = lower fuel & a/c costs 17 © Ryanair 2014
Slide 18: FY16 Cautious Outlook
FY16 Cautious Outlook Load Factor up 2% to 90% Traffic up 10% to 100m (H1 +10%, H2 +10%) Sector length flat Unit cost down -2% (ex–fuel flat) Avg. fare falls: H1 0% -2%, H2 -4% -8% Lower oil may lead to lower fares; irrational Profit growth to €940m - €970m (sub to H2 fares) Forecasts subject to “LF
Slide 19: Appendices
Appendices Uj YEARS OF LOW 1985-2015 FARES VYRYANAIR
Slide 20: Fleet / Traffic Growth FY15 to FY24
F l e e t / Tr a f f i c G r ow t h F Y 1 5 t o F Y 2 4 Fleet C’mers Growth (at YE) P.A. Ann Cum FY15 308 91m + 11% + 11% 340 100m + 10% + 22% 737-800 Order FY16 FY17 368 106m + 6% + 30% FY18 402 114m + 8% + 40% FY19 420 120m + 5% + 47% FY20 451 128m + 7% + 57% FY21 468 136m + 6% + 66% MAX Order FY2
Slide 21: Capital Returns
Capital Retur ns FY 2008 – Buyback 1 €300m FY 2009 – Buyback 2 €46m FY 2011 – Special div 1 €500m Total FY 2012 – Buyback 3 €125m Buybacks €1,422m FY 2013 – Buyback 4 €67m Spec Divs €1,512m FY 2013 – Special div 2 €492m €2,934m FY 2014 – Buyback 5 €484m FY 2015 – Special div 3 €520m FY 15/16 – Buyba
Slide 22: Fuel hedging update May 15
Fuel hedging update May 15 – (indicative only) Year Oil Currency Blend € price Oil cover Rpbl cover €/$ Rpbl chng p/px p/px save FY15 90% $95 90% $1.34 €71 - 5% €22.13 €2.52 FY16 90% $92 90% $1.33 €69 - 2% €20.79 €1.35 FY17 36% $69 90% $1.19 €58 -17% €18.31 €2.48 Figures are indicative, assume oil &
Slide 23: Currency update May 15
Cur rency update May 15 – (indicative only) OpEx CapEx Year % Hedge Spot "Savings" Year % Hedge Spot "Savings" (€m) (€m) FY16 90% 1.33 $1.11 400 FY16 100% 1.37 $1.11 220 FY17 90% 1.19 $1.11 130 FY17 100% 1.34 $1.11 220 FY18 - - - - FY18 100% 1.23 $1.11 115 Above figures are indicative “savings” only
Slide 24: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Certain of the information included in this presentation is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. By their nature, for