Slide 1: TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
Slide 2: Energy trends since 2000: transition has started
Energy trends since 2000: transition has started GDP growth decoupled from total energy demand and CO2 emissions growth Index of key indicators 2000=100 CAGR 2000/2019 200 GDP 3,5% Power fastest growing energy, oil slowest one 190 Electricity demand 3,2% 180 Coal growth, triggered by China take-off
Slide 3: Will current market disruptions speed up or slow down the energy transition?
Will current market disruptions speed up or slow down the energy transition? 2021 demand rebound Energy security and Energy affordability is Short term coal due to stronger than sovereignty back in fundamental: high consumption and CO2 on expected economic focus: oil and gas matter energy bills beco
Slide 4: Two demand scenarios to 2050
TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022 Two demand scenarios to 2050 Momentum Rupture A forward-looking scenario building on NZ50 commitments A back-casting approach 40 Net-Zero by 2050 countries included in our scenario Paris agreement well-below 2°C target achieved, based on Announced targets and NDCs o
Slide 5: Key features of our 2022 scenarios
Key features of our 2022 scenarios Momentum: accelerating the ramp-up of greener molecules and electrons • Starts with higher fossil fuels demand and higher emissions – so more efforts needed • Transport revolution under way: massive road electrification for Light and Heavy Duty Vehicles; increased
Slide 6: The energy transition must be just
The energy transition must be just Meeting the needs of growing populations in developing economies Changes in Non-OECD primary energy demand 2019-2050 Changes in OECD* primary energy demand 2019-2050 (Momentum) (Momentum) PJ/d Mostly transition from PJ/d inefficient traditional 3000 energy to moder
Slide 7: How to curb emissions?
How to curb emissions? A comprehensive transformation of our energy production and usage Global anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2019 Global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2019 GtCO2e GtCO2 ~58 Gt 5 10 15 Power & Heat Power 50 Transport Industry Energy-related CO2 : 33 Gt Res. & Com. Other Energy ene
Slide 8: Key modeling drivers of our scenarios
Key modeling drivers of our scenarios Sector-based assumptions 2019 Momentum 2050 Rupture 2050 Strong electrification of end-use ~20% of final demand ~30% ~40% 2 100 TWh* 24 000 TWh* 34 000 TWh* Deep decarbonization of power supply (8% of power generation) (~50%) (~60%) <1% green gases** in gas Gas
Slide 9: Momentum
Momentum Key energy transition levers: • Revolution in Transport • Massive growth in clean power • Increased penetration of clean hydrogen Momentum wrap-up 9 TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
Slide 10: Electrification of Light Duty Vehicles
Electrification of Light Duty Vehicles Widespread penetration in China and NZ 2050 countries Light Duty Vehicles* final consumption (Momentum) Light Duty Vehicles fleet (Momentum) PJ/d Billion 4 150 3 Electricity + H2-based** H2-based 100 Electricity 2 Biofuels & Biogas Natural gas 50 1 Oil 2019 203
Slide 11: Mix diversification in Heavy Duty Vehicles
Mix diversification in Heavy Duty Vehicles A full set of clean energies will contribute to trucking decarbonization Heavy Duty Vehicles * final consumption (Momentum) Zero Emissions Vehicles share of HDV traffic (Momentum) PJ/d 2050, % of km travelled 50% 100% H2-based** Urban vehicles 100 (~30% of
Slide 12: Multiple decarbonization paths for Aviation & Marine
Multiple decarbonization paths for Aviation & Marine Bioenergies and H2-based fuels to decarbonize these hard-to-abate sectors Aviation final consumption (Momentum) Marine final consumption (Momentum) PJ/d PJ/d 50 50 H2-based** Electricity H2-based** Biofuels 25 25 Electricity Biofuels & Biogas Oil
Slide 13: Significant growth of low carbon power generation
Significant growth of low carbon power generation Led by solar & wind Power generation, excluding power for Green H2 (Momentum) Power capacities, excluding for Green H2 (Momentum) TWh GW 60 000 8 000 Solar Other renewables Bioenergy* Hydro 6 000 Nuclear 30 000 4 000 Wind Solar & Wind 2 000 Natural g
Slide 14: World Oil & Natural Gas
World Oil & Natural Gas Natural gas key for energy transition; oil starts decreasing after 2030 Natural gas demand by sector, excluding gas for Blue H2 Oil demand by sector (Momentum) (Momentum) Mb/d Bcm 5 000 100 -2.3% p.a. Other sectors* Transport Res&Com 2 500 50 Industry Transport Industry Power
Slide 15: What about clean hydrogen?
What about clean hydrogen? Mostly used for hard-to-abate sectors Clean H2 balance (Momentum) Nat Gas and Power demand including H2 (Momentum) MtH2 Bcm & TWh Added gas demand Added power demand > 300 + 500 Bcm + 8 000 TWh 300 Other sectors* gas for H2 power for H2 Res. & Com. 5 000 60 000 Power 14% 1
Slide 16: World Total Final Consumption
World Total Final Consumption Electricity outstrips oil in the early 2040s Total final consumption Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector PJ/d Gt 10 Other renewables H2-based* Heat Transport 1 000 Electricity Industry Biofuels Biomass 5 Biogas 500 Natural gas Oil Res&Com Coal 2019 2030 2050 2000 201
Slide 17: World energy demand and CO2 emissions
World energy demand and CO2 emissions Great effort towards energy transition but insufficient to meet global targets Total primary energy demand Energy-related CO2 emissions PJ/d Gt 2 000 Other renewables 30 Solar & Wind Bioenergy* Hydro Nuclear 1 000 15 Natural gas Oil Coal 2019 2030 2050 2000 2010
Slide 18: Zoom
Zoom • A closer look at NZE countries • EU27: progressing its Green Deal • Africa: a promising energy transition path 18 TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
Slide 19: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries At the forefront of the energy transition Main game changers in Net-Zero 2050 countries Power generation carbon-neutral by 2040 (net of CCS) New in TEO 2022: Australia, UAE, Singapore and Taiwan Renewables @80% of 2050 power generation, natural gas to manage variability Ro
Slide 20: Net Zero by 2050 countries
Net Zero by 2050 countries Forging the net-zero emissions pathway NZ 2050 countries primary energy demand World energy-related CO2 emissions PJ/d Gt 40 500 Other renewables Solar & Wind 20 Momentum Bioenergy* Hydro Non-NZ 2050 Nuclear countries (Momentum) Natural gas Oil NZ 2050 Coal countries 2019
Slide 21: Leveraging short-term emergency measures to engage structural transformation
EU27 Leveraging short-term emergency measures to engage structural transformation EU27 primary energy demand EU27 power generation (incl. Green H2) PJ/d TWh Energy 200 intensity gains Other REN Off. wind 4 000 Ons. wind Other renewables Solar & Wind 2 000 Solar Bioenergy* Hydro Bioenergy Nuclear Hyd
Slide 22: Africa
Africa A continent with huge untapped resources Energy Energy-related Today Population demand CO2 emissions As of 2019 10 2 000 40 World Africa 5 1 000 20 17% 6% Billion people PJ/d GtCO2 4% Energy potential Renewables Oil & gas reserves** 10 TW 350 GW 65 years 27 years Potential capacity* 110 GW In
Slide 23: Africa
Africa More energy to improve the living standards of a growing population Africa primary energy demand PJ/d 150 Momentum - Energy demand growth of 1.4% p.a. to 2050 - Urbanization facilitates partial transition away from inefficient and Other renewables highly-emitting traditional biomass to cleane
Slide 24: Africa
Africa Massive electrification with renewables, driven by urbanization Africa power generation Africa power demand by sector TWh TWh 4032 Other renewables 4 000 4 000 Bioenergy* Other sectors** Wind Agriculture 2579 Transport Industry Solar 2 000 2 000 861 Hydro Res. & Com. Nuclear Coal Natural gas
Slide 25: Rupture
Rupture Key additional levers: • Accelerated electrification of demand • Accelerated deployment of REN Rupture wrap-up – CO2 emissions 25 TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
Slide 26: World Total Final Consumption
World Total Final Consumption Increased electrification in non-OECD essential to remain well-below 2°C Total final consumption CO2 emissions by sector PJ/d Gt 10 Momentum Rupture Other renewables H2-based* 1 000 Heat Transport Electricity 5 500 Biofuels Biomass Biogas Industry Natural gas Oil Coal 2
Slide 27: World demand in Transport
World demand in Transport Accelerated substitution away from oil on a global scale Transport total final consumption Electricity and fuel cells share in 2050 PJ/d LV fleet (Billions Vehicles) and HDV traffic (km) % 50% 100% 400 Momentum Rupture LV fleet H2-based* HDV traffic 200 Electricity Biofuels
Slide 28: World demand in Industry and Res. & Com.
World demand in Industry and Res. & Com. Deep electrification and strong efficiency gains Industry total final consumption Res. & Com. Total final consumption PJ/d PJ/d 600 400 Other renewables Other renewables H2-based* H2-based* Heat Heat Electricity 300 200 Electricity Biomass Biogas Natural gas
Slide 29: World Power demand and generation
World Power demand and generation A world well-below 2°C requires a new power system Power generation, excluding Power for Green H2 Power demand, excluding Power for Green H2 TWh TWh 60 000 60 000 Other renewables Bioenergy* Other sectors** Hydro Transport Nuclear 30 000 Industry 30 000 Solar & Wind
Slide 30: Clean Hydrogen
Clean Hydrogen Adding ~20% to natural gas and power demand in 2050 Clean H2 balance Nat Gas and Power demand by sector including H2 (Rupture) MtH2 Bcm & TWh 500 ~470 +770 Bcm +12500 TWh gas for H2 elec for H2 400 ~total Asian ~half world power > 300 ~2/3 5 000 demand today demand today 300 Other sec
Slide 31: World Gases demand
World Gases demand Towards low-carbon gases predominance Gases demand by sector Gases demand by type Bcm* Bcm* 6 000 6 000 Gas for blue H2 Clean Other sectors** Hydrogen Transport Biomethane Res&Com 3 000 3 000 CCS-abated Industry Natural Gas*** Power Gen Natural Gas 2019 2030 2050 2019 2030 2050 MO
Slide 32: World Liquids demand
World Liquids demand Demand plateaus over the decade Liquids (oil + biofuels + e-fuels) demand by sector Biofuels + e-fuels demand in transport Mb/d Mb/d 100 20 Marine 50 E-fuels in Transport 10 Biofuels in Transport Aviation Transport Industry, Road Res&com… 2019 2050 2050 2019 2050 2050 Momentum R
Slide 33: World Primary Energy Demand
World Primary Energy Demand Greening the energy system will enable sustainable growth for all Total primary energy demand Total primary energy demand PJ/d PJ/d Momentum Rupture 2 000 2 000 Other renewables World Solar & Wind Bioenergy* Rest of the world 1 000 Hydro 1 000 Nuclear NZ 2050 countries Na
Slide 34: World energy-related CO2 emissions
World energy-related CO2 emissions Strong abatements to expect from non-OECD; CCS & NBS* needed for Net-Zero Energy-related CO2 emissions Energy-related CO2 emissions abatements Gt Gt 30 End USERS NZ countries CCS ~3Gt commitments Momentum China 15 India SUPPLIERS CCS ~6,5Gt Other Asia RoW DAC**, NB
Slide 35: A decisive decade for the energy system
A decisive decade for the energy system Investment to double by 2030; supportive public policies required Investments in Oil & Gas and Low-carbon Power Global land required in 2050 (solar + onshore wind) G$22 per year km² 3 000 ~ 500 000 – 900 000 km² Onshore wind (~ 5 500 GW): 300 000 – 600 000 km²
Slide 36: From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C
From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C Rupture+ sensitivity Energy-related CO2 emissions Rupture+: how to reach 1.5°C Gt A combination of levers applied on the Rupture scenario from 2035 onwards: 30 • Industry : fossil energy consumption in 2050 halved, replaced by carbon-free electricity and bioenergy for pe
Slide 37: From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C
From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C Impact of Rupture+ sensitivity Total primary energy demand Oil demand PJ/d Mb/d 2 000 100 Other renewables Solar & Wind 1 000 50 Bioenergy* Rupture Hydro Nuclear IEA NZE Natural gas Rupture+ Oil Coal 2050 2050 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Rupture Rupture+
Slide 38: From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C
From well-below 2°C to 1.5°C Limited overshoot requires technological innovation Energy-related CO2 emissions Gt Rupture+: ~ 500 - 550 Gt CO2 ~200 Gt CO2 to be captured by 2100 In Rupture+: • Energy-related CO2 emissions reach net zero around 2050 • Overshoot to be captured from 2050 to 2100 roughly
Slide 39: Key findings of TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
Key findings of TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022 ❑ The short-term trajectory of global energy demand is not going in the right direction. More efforts are needed to decarbonize while ensuring energy security and affordability ❑ The current crisis is an opportunity to increase and anchor energy effi
Slide 40: Appendix
Appendix 40 TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022
Slide 41: World primary energy demand and power generation
World primary energy demand and power generation World primary energy demand (PJ/d) MOMENTUM RUPTURE 2019 2030 2040 2050 CAGR 19/50 2030 2040 2050 CAGR 19/50 Coal 444 402 353 302 -1,2% 342 193 98 -4,8% Oil 518 516 416 319 -1,6% 492 344 199 -3,0% Natural gas 385 422 449 458 0,6% 423 426 399 0,1% Nucl
Slide 42: Disclaimer and copyright reservation
Disclaimer and copyright reservation Definition - TotalEnergies / Company The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly holds an interest are separate and independent legal entities. The terms "TotalEnergies", "TotalEnergies company" and "Company" used in this document are used to re