Deutsche Bank Ag · XETR:DBK
Deutsche Bank — Investor Day (December 2009)
22 slides from Deutsche Bank's investor day presentation, Dec 15, 2009
Slide 1: Global Markets Investor Day
Global Markets Anshu Jain Head of Global Markets Investor Day Frankfurt, 15 December 2009
Slide 2: 2009: A remarkable transition
2009: A remarkable transition Significant recalibration of operating model Equities: Shift from proprietary trading and retail product focus Enhanced market to improved position in cash, prime brokerage and institutional shares derivatives #1 FX for fifth Credit: Originate to distribute and il
Slide 3: Track record: superior execution over differentiated strategy
At a point where a differentiated strategy is less important than superior execution, our track record speaks for itself S&T revenues(1), in EUR bn DB’s ’ aggregate out-performance f )(2) EUR 21 bn (2002-9M2009) ( Peer average Other losses DB Disclosed 2.6 1.2 markdowns, de- risking i ki llosses and
Slide 4: 2009: A successful recalibration of our model
2009: A successful recalibration of our model Recalibration, not revolution Reduced capital in prop trading Notional capital Indicative EPT: dedicated equity prop Proprietary trading SABA: dedicated credit prop Intellectual capital p (closed) Market access (1) (90)% 10-15% 5% Peak (Aug 07) Current 3
Slide 5: We have dramatically reduced our usage of balance sheet and other scarce resources
We have dramatically reduced our usage of balance sheet and other scarce resources … Global Markets Deleveraged aggressively Reduced RWA US GAAP ‘pro-forma’ total assets(1), RWA(2), in EUR bn in EUR bn ( )% (19)% (50)% Peak (31 Mar 08) 30 Sep 09 Peak (30 Sep 08) 30 Sep 09 Reduced trading risk Reduce
Slide 6: … while improving or maintaining our overall business efficiency
… while improving or maintaining our overall business efficiency Global Markets Non-bonus cost / revenues Return on Assets(1) Average active equity Indexed (06-07 avg = 100) Indexed (06-07 avg = 100) >25% pre-tax RoE 100 256 bps 115 84 8 100 132 bps 06-07 avg Jan-Sep 2009 06-07 avg Jan-Sep 2009 06-0
Slide 7: An enviably diversified platform
An enviably diversified platform Global Markets revenues by business area(1) Fixed Income Equities 2007 2007 Dedicated Comm Comm- prop p p Cash EM odities 10% 40% 5% <5% MM & FX Prime 30% Brokerage 25% EM Dedicated Credit Comm- 10% Structured Flow EQD Q Prop 45% odities EQD Rates 10% 10% Cash 5% 20%
Slide 8: Our breadth of industry leading positions is unique amongst our peers
Our breadth of industry leading positions is unique amongst our peers; we are targeting the few gaps that remain Leading fixed income player Targeting Top 3 or Top 5 in global equities Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 5 Target Top 3 Top 5 Top 5 Top 3 Top 5 Top 3
Slide 9: Opportunities: Strong position in Asia with more room for growth
Opportunities: We have a strong position in Asia but there is more room for growth Global Markets Global MarketsAsia Asia locations locations Asia ex Japan market share FX #1 26.5% Gov Bonds 12.8% #1 IRD 12.5% #1 Global Markets Asia revenues >70% IG Credit 10.0% #3 G3D Asian 9 5% 9.5% #3 Bonds Equit
Slide 10: Opportunities: Recalibrated equities platform is producing desired results
Opportunities: Our recalibrated equities platform is producing the desired results Improved position in Equity S&T #1 in Prime Brokerage Reported S&T equity revenues, in EUR bn Revenue gap to Top 3 firms in EUR bn #7 #8 #4 #3 #4 #3 #3 #1 1.0 0.0 0.8 (0.4) Global Custodian, Jul 09 (0.8) World’s Best
Slide 11: Opportunities: Differentiated business model in commodities
Opportunities: A differentiated and diverse business model in commodities, with strong growth momentum Differentiated business model Growth and diversification Env Other High risk / more illiquid finance 4% US power 4% and gas 22% Solutions 17% Agriculture Acqui- Organic 3% EU power sitions build B
Slide 12: Opportunities: Market leading FX / MM / Rates franchise
Opportunities: Our market leading FX / MM / Rates franchise will continue to generate superior returns Foreign Exchange Rates Market share and rank Market share and rank 16.7% 19.3% 19.3% 21.7% 21.0% 8.9% 11.1% 11.6% 11.6% #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #2 #1 #1 #1 Indexed revenues (2005 = 100) Indexed revenues (20
Slide 13: Opportunities: Recalibrated credit trading and emerging markets
Opportunities: We have recalibrated credit trading and continue to dominate in emerging markets Credit revenues(1) EM debt revenues 2007 2009e Indexed (2005 = 100) Structured Structured 186 35% Distressed 20% 10% Primary 10% Primary 100 10% Prop Flow 10% 30% Flow 60% Distressed 15% 2005 2007 2009e L
Slide 14: Opportunities: World class structuring platform
Opportunities: World class structuring platform ensures that our intellectual capital receives a high dividend Composition of structuring revenues Client example Indicative Product innovation Major retail bank needed to sell real estate assets to generate ~EUR 1 bn Tier 1 capital Restructuring Cli
Slide 15: Opportunities: Rapidly growing ETF business
Opportunities: Rapidly growing ETF business – now the #5 global manager, surpassing much older firms Asset management industry Fast growth despite recent inception AuM in USD tn Top ETF managers Bubbles represent size of AuM (5%) 64 69 54 53 51 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e ETF industry AuM in USD tn 11
Slide 16: Opportunities: Investing to strengthen our platform
Opportunities: Investing to strengthen our platform Investment in cash equities and prime brokerage in North America and Asia Equities Buildout of our listed / flow equity derivatives platform Product and regional buildout including physical oil, Eastern European power and Commodities gas and
Slide 17: Opportunities: Diverse portfolio of profitable client relationships
Opportunities: We have created a diverse portfolio of highly profitable and consistent client relationships Growing relationships with largest clients Stable client revenues Breakdown of YTD revenues EUR # of client YTD 2009 vs YTD 2007 Revenues accounts in YTD Change in client revenues / per client
Slide 18: Challenge: Margins and volumes are normalising
Challenge: Margins and volumes are normalising Margins Volumes Global Markets margin index Global Markets volume index ((34)% ) (15)% 356 796 670 670 269 234 383 100 74 100 Jan 03 Pre- Peak Avg Avg Jan 03 Pre- Peak Avg Avg crisis Dec 08 1H09 3Q09 crisis Nov 08 1H09 3Q09 Jun 07 Jun 07 N t The Note: T
Slide 19: Challenge: Derivatives regulation could bring significant change
Challenge: Derivatives regulation could bring significant change to the investment banking landscape Challenges Opportunities Higher traded volumes due to reduced frictional costs Margin compression Significant new product offerings (e.g. cross-product margining) New client segments attracted by Som
Slide 20: 2010: Normalisation offset by growth opportunities and lower losses
2010: Normalisation offset by growth opportunities and lower losses Deutsche Bank estimates for Global Markets Full year revenues including exceptional gains, 2009 reported revenues writedowns and one-off losses (25)% to N Normalisation li ti off exceptionally ti ll ffavourable bl Normalised rev
Slide 21: Phase 4: IBIT potential
Phase 4: IBIT potential in EUR bn Phase 4 potential 2011 Corporate Banking & Securities 63 6.3 Global Transaction Banking 1.3 Asset and Wealth Management 1.0 Private & Business Clients 1.5 Total business divisions 10.0 Note: Figures do not add up due to rounding differences Investor Relations 12/09
Slide 22: Cautionary statements
Cautionary statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about our beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates and pro