Slide 1: Year-end report presentation 2024
Year-end report presentation 2024 Henrik Sjölund, CEO Anders Jernhall, CFO January 31st, 2025
Slide 2: Stops, seasonality & soft markets affected Q4
Group Stops, seasonality & soft markets affected Q4 Operating profit* Operating profit SEKm SEKm 8 000 2 000 7 000 1 500 6 000 5 000 1 000 4 000 7 262 1 737 1 622 3 000 1 138 1 166 4 755 500 1 078 2 000 4 061 944 983 3 721 714 716 2 345 2 479 1 000 0 0 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23 Q1-24 Q2-24 Q3-24
Slide 3: 16% ROCE in our industry in 2024
Group 16% ROCE in our industry in 2024 Last 10 year average of 19% % 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Industry's return on capital employed* Average return on capital employed, industry* 3 *Excl. items affecting comparability.
Slide 4: Proposes dividend of SEK 9.0 + 3.0
Group Proposes dividend of SEK 9.0 + 3.0 SEK 1.9 bn SEK per share SEK 40 35 30 25 20 35.0 15 8.0 23.0 10 20.2 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 18.0 13.9 12.2 5 9.9 10.8 9.0 6.75 7.25 7.5 8.0 8.5 6.5 3.5 0 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Earnings* Dividend Extra dividend 4 *Excl. items affecting comparability.
Slide 5: Dividends & buy-backs of SEK 6 bn 2023-2024
Group Dividends & buy-backs of SEK 6 bn 2023-2024 Net debt at 6% of equity SEKm Cash flow Capital employed 8 000 7 000 Forest Renewable Energy 6 000 Wood Products Board and Paper 5 000 4 000 3 000 % Debt/equity ratio 2 000 25 20 1 000 15 10 0 5 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 Dividend Buy-back of own shares 19
Slide 6: Forest
Forest 1.3 million ha total land area 1.0 million ha productive forest land
Slide 7: Tight Nordic wood market
Forest Tight Nordic wood market Fierce competition for logs Wood cost at mill gate Index (Holmen average) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Saw logs Pulpwood 7
Slide 8: Still good mark-up on wood for pulp
Forest Still good mark-up on wood for pulp Normal relationship between sawn wood & net log cost Sales price sawn wood less Sales price pulp less Index Index net log cost per m3 sawn wood wood cost per tonne of pulp 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202
Slide 9: Price increases translating into higher profits
Forest Price increases translating into higher profits Harvesting cash-flow has increased 80% in 3 years SEKm SEKm 500 2 000 1 750 400 1 500 1 250 300 522 1 000 490 482 1 947 452 200 402 390 397 384 750 1 495 1 523 351 1 367 1 401 1 172 500 100 250 0 0 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23 Q1-24 Q2-24 Q3-24
Slide 10: Forest value +3% to SEK 58 bn
Forest Forest value +3% to SEK 58 bn Holmen's forest value SEKbn 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Västerbotten Västernorrland Jämtland Gävleborg Uppsala and southwards Holmen forest holdings 10
Slide 11: Valuation of 4 000+ properties
Forest Valuation of 4 000+ properties External reference valuation of south +3% (13% incl size premium) Holmen Holmen Market Market No of Average size, No of properties Average size, properties hectares (3 years) hectares Västerbotten 1 376 270 330 102 Västernorrland 620 440 102 87 Jämtland 357 410
Slide 12: Transaction prices exhibits low volatility
Forest Transaction prices exhibits low volatility SEK/m 3sob 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Price development of forest properties, Sweden 12 Source: Ludvig & Co
Slide 13: Wood prices currently outpacing property prices
Forest Wood prices currently outpacing property prices SEK/m 3sob SEK/m 3sub 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Price development of forest properties, Sweden (SEK/m3s
Slide 14: Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy 1.9 TWh per year
Slide 15: Power still a scarce resource in Europe
Renewable Energy Power still a scarce resource in Europe German prices 7x higher than in northern Sweden in 2nd half 2024 Energy prices EUR/MWh 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 South Sweden (SE3) North Sweden (SE2) Germany 15 Source: Macrobond
Slide 16: Producing at a 30% premium to market price
Renewable Energy Producing at a 30% premium to market price SEK/MWh 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23 Q1-24 Q2-24 Q3-24 Q4-24 Holmen Renewable Energy North Sweden (SE2) 16
Slide 17: 2024 prices 30% lower than historical levels
Renewable Energy 2024 prices 30% lower than historical levels Market prices averaging 12 EUR/MWh since July SEKm % SEKm % 500 100 1 250 25 400 80 1 000 20 300 60 750 15 463 200 40 282 500 1 006 10 100 213 208 20 135 697 68 59 10 250 5 0 0 336 347 215 265 -12 -100 -20 0 0 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-2
Slide 18: Wood Products
Wood Products 1.5 million m3 per year
Slide 19: Slow constructional cycle
Wood Products Slow constructional cycle Fourth quarter prices stable but up 10% y-o-y Index 330 280 230 180 130 80 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Export price 'World Price' (FX-basket) Export price Sawn softwood (SEK) 19 Source: Swedish Forest Industries
Slide 20: Global shortage of logs
Wood Products Global shortage of logs World's largest exporter of sawn timber Million m3 2023 25 20 15 10 5 0 Canada Russia Sweden Germany Finland Austria Chile Latvia Belarus Czechia 20 Source: FAO
Slide 21: Q4 burdened by log costs in southern Sweden
Wood Products Q4 burdened by log costs in southern Sweden SEKm % SEKm % 75 15 2 000 100 50 10 1 500 75 25 55 47 5 23 19 0 0 0 -18 1 000 50 -26 -25 -5 1 668 -67 -89 1 237 -50 -10 500 25 -75 -15 62 185 6 2 -100 -20 0 0 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23 Q1-24 Q2-24 Q3-24 Q4-24 19 20 21 22 23 24 Operating p
Slide 22: Board and Paper
Board and Paper 1.5 million tonnes per year
Slide 23: Successful BA merger
Board and Paper Successful BA merger Consumer board, transport packaging, books & magazines
Slide 24: Muted consumer board demand in Q4
Board and Paper Muted consumer board demand in Q4 European SBB and FBB demand Prices kton Index 3 000 160 140 2 500 120 2 000 100 1 500 80 60 1 000 40 500 20 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 FBB Pulp NBSK** **Adjusted for rebates 24 Source: CEPI and Fastmarkets RISI
Slide 25: Paper consumption somewhat down
Board and Paper Paper consumption somewhat down Oversupplied market Printing paper demand WE Prices kton Index 16 000 250 14 000 200 12 000 10 000 150 8 000 100 6 000 4 000 50 2 000 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 M12* 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Uncoated magazine & book Coated magazine Newsprint U
Slide 26: Q4 impacted by stops, seasonality & slow market
Board and Paper Q4 impacted by stops, seasonality & slow market 21% ROCE for FY 2024 in challenging market conditions SEKm % SEKm % 1 600 40 4 000 80 1 400 35 3 500 70 1 200 30 3 000 60 1 000 25 2 500 50 800 20 2 000 40 3 796 600 15 1 500 30 1 135 2 730 400 868 10 1 000 20 724 1 702 611 653 200 370
Slide 27: We grow houses
We grow houses Leftovers are converted into renewable packaging and paper We harvest the energy that blows and runs through our forests 2.1 Carbon sequestration 8.3 Million tonnes CO2e + 4.9 Storage and substitution from Million Million tonnes tonnes CO2e wood- and fiber products CO2e in 2024 + 2.1
Slide 28: Growing a sustainable future
Growing a sustainable future
Slide 29: holmen.com
HOLMEN holmen.com