BP plc · LSE:BP.
BP — Investor Presentation (February 2016)
30 slides from BP's investor presentation, Feb 10, 2016
Slide 1: BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2% 2016 edition Outlook 10th February 2016 to 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Slide 2: Economic backdrop
Economic backdrop bp GDP Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35 Trillion, $2010 Trillion, $2010 250 0 10 20 30 Other | _ 200 ~ “India | y Other mAfrica | y ; 150 - mChina ; rae m OECD Africa 100 China 50 OECD 0 1965 2000 2035 = Population @ Productivity 2016 Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 3: Global energy demand
Global energy demand bp Consumption by region Consumption growth by region Billion toe 10 year average, % per annum 18 Other 12% —— Other Asia 15 = Other Asia 10% 42 ™China 8% 9 m OECD 6% 4% 6 2% 3 | 0% — 0 -2% 1965 2000 2035 1975 1995 2015 2035 2016 Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c.2016
Slide 4: What drives energy demand?
bp What drives energy demand? 2016 Energy Outlook 4 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 5: Global GDP and energy
Global GDP and energy bp World GDP and energy demand Index (1965=100) Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $2010 GDP 1200 0.7 —GDP 1000 ; 0.6 —Primary energy 800 0.5 0.4 600 0.3 400 0.2 200 0.1 0 0.0 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 2016 Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 6: Slower global GDP growth
Slower global GDP growth bp ie Annual growth rates 2014-35 % per annum 5% = 6 rimary energy 4% Base case 3% | BE «le 2% 0% China World China World Historical growth rates % per annum, 20-year moving average 5% 4% GDP 3% 2% Primary energy 0% 1985 1995 2005 2015 2016 Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 7: Energy intensity and energy demand
bp Energy intensity and energy demand i Decline in world energy intensity World energy demand % per annum Billion toe 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 25 —1965-2014 1965-2014 20 —1994-2014 —Base case Fastest 1994-2014 <«— 20-yeal 15 - —=Flat demand average Base case 10 2014-35 Flat demand 1965 2000 2035 2016 Ener
Slide 8: Q: What drives energy demand?
bp Q: What drives energy demand? A: Global economic growth 2016 Energy Outlook 8 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 9: Fuel mix
Fuel mix bp Si Shares of primary energy Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum 50% 250 Oil 40% 200 m Renew.* 30% —\Coal 150 mHydro © Nuclear 9 G 20% Gas 100 ™Coal 10% Hydro 50 m= Gas 0% _ Nuclear Renewables* 0 =Oil 1965 2000 2035 1994-2014 2014-35 *Includes biofuels 2016 Energy Outlook © BP p.l
Slide 10: Key factors shaping the fuel mix
bp Key factors shaping the fuel mix i e What have we learned about US shale? e China’s changing energy needs e Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 2016 Energy Outlook 10 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 11: US tight oil and shale gas
US tight oil and shale gas bp if US tight oil forecasts US shale gas forecasts Mb/d Bef/d 8 90 6 60 4 2 Forecast year: sia —2013 ——-2014 —2015 ——2016 0 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2005 2015 2025 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 11 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 12: Global tight oil and shale gas
bp Global tight oil and shale gas is Ten year supply increments: rotted Tight oil Betta Shale gas 8 40 mS &C America a 30 m= Middle East 3 m Europe & Eurasia 20 2 mg Africa 1 10 = Asia Pacific m= North America 0 0 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 2005-15 2015-25 2025-35 2016 Energy Outlook 12 © BP p.l.c. 201
Slide 13: Market shares of tight oil and shale gas
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas bp Shares of total oil/gas production 40% —Shale gas 30% —Tight oil 20% ——. 10% 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 13 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 14: Market shares of tight oil and shale gas
bp Market shares of tight oil and shale gas i" Shares of total oil/gas production 40% —Shale gas 30% - —Tight oil rane" Stronger shale case 20% | anneenee = ee -sjasannnsnnssnnnernsneen ee S TrOIger shale case 10% iil 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 14 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 15: Key factors shaping the fuel mix
bp Key factors shaping the fuel mix i e China’s changing energy needs 2016 Energy Outlook 15 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 16: China's changing energy needs
bp China’s changing energy needs i GDP and primary energy growth Shares of primary energy % per annum 10% 80% = GDP aan Coal 8% m= Primary energy ~~ 6% 40% 4% Oil Non-fossils a sal, ee 2% i ——S 0% 0% Gas 2000-14 2014-25 2025-35 1985 2010 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 16 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 17: Key factors shaping the fuel mix
bp Key factors shaping the fuel mix i e Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 2016 Energy Outlook 17 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 18: Renewables and other non-fossil fuels
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels bp Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe 1500 1000 500 Forecast year: —2016 ——2015 —2014 —2013 0 —2012 ——2011 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 18 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 19: Renewables and other non-fossil fuels
bp Renewables and other non-fossil fuels i Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe 1500 1000 500 Forecast year: —2016 —2015 —2014 —2013 0 —2012 —-2011 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe 400 m Renewables m Hydro = Biofuels Nuclear 200 — Total 0 -200 -400 2015
Slide 20: Oil demand and supply
bp Oil demand and supply is Demand Supply Mb/d 115 110 — _ 2035 level —————_* 105 95 20 == 85 80 2014 OECD Non-OECD 2014 Non-OPEC OPEC decline growth growth growth 2016 Energy Outlook 20 ©BP p.l.c.2016
Slide 21: Oil demand
bp Oil demand He Liquids fuel demand by sector Vehicle fleet Mb/d Billion vehicles 70 —Transport ~ Non-OECD 60 ~- —Industry m OECD —— Other a0 —Power 2 40 | 30 | 20 | { 10 | ; —— ; 1965 2000 2035 1965 2000 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 21 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 22: Natural gas
bp Natural gas i" Gas production by type and region Shares of global gas consumption Bef/d 500 | = Non-OECD shale cd m CECDaiale Total trade 375 ~' Non-OECD other 30% @ OECD other 250 20% etre 125 10% “LNG 0 0% 1990 2005 2020 2035 1990 2005 2020 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 22 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 23: Changing outlook for carbon emissions
bp Changing outlook for carbon emissions 2016 Energy Outlook 23 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 24: Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions bp Si % per annum Decline in energy 4% intensity 3% Decline in carbon 2% intensity CO, 0% 1994-2014 2014-35 2016 Energy Outlook © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 25: Outlook for carbon emissions
Outlook for carbon emissions bp Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO, 40 —-Base case 30 — IEA 450 20 10 0 1975 1995 2015 2035 2016 Energy Outlook 25 © BP p.l.c. 2016
Slide 26: Outlook for carbon emissions
bp Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO, 40 Changes in intensity % per annum . . Energy intensity —-Base case 0% -1% -2% -3% On 1994-2014 °° | 30 IEA 450 _ Base 1% case 20 Carbon intensity 10 -2% IEA 450 si 0 1975 1995 2015 2035 -3% ~ 2016 Energy Outlook 26 © BP p.l.c. 201
Slide 27: Outlook for carbon emissions
bp Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO, 40 —-Base case ——Faster transition —IEA 450 Changes in intensity % per annum . . Energy intensity 0% -1% -2% -3% | e@ 1 1994-2014 ge 0% 30 Base 1% case \ 20 Carbon e intensity Faster transition 10 -2% IEA 450 si 0 1975 1995 2015 203
Slide 28: Impact of faster transition case
bp Impact of faster transition case i Consumption by fuel Annual demand growth by fuel Billion toe Mtoe per annum 5 250 200 m Renew.* 4 150 m= Hydro 100 m Nuclear 3 -” = Coal mu Gas 2 a = Oil =) —Total 1 -100 Renewables* 1994- Base Faster 0 2014 case transition (1985 2000 2035 L__ 9014-35 *Includes
Slide 29: Conclusions
bp Conclusions is e Global demand for energy continues to rise — to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow e Fuel mix changes significantly — coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady e Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply —
Slide 30: BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
BP Energy Outlook 2% 2016 edition Outlook to 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats