Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call – Third Quarter Fiscal 2012
The Mosaic Company Exhibit 99.2 Earnings Conference Call – rd Quarter Fiscal Thursday, March 29, Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer Larry Stranghoener, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectati
Slide 3: Strong execution, market impacts
Strong execution Market impacts Ongoing business strength despite near-term market challenges South Fort Meade litigation resolved [pending court approval] Lower potash volumes Potash expansion on track Higher raw materials costs MicroEssentials ® expansion on track for 4Q12 completion Operational e
Slide 4: Resolving Near-term Market Challenges
Resolving Near-term Market Challenges • Indian subsidy known • China-Canpotex contract signed • Phosphate raw material spot prices down Long-term market conditions remain attractive
Slide 5: Expecting a strong spring season in North America
Expecting a strong spring season in North America • Farm economics remain compelling • Farmers have incentive to plant more acres and maximize yields • Expect early start due to warm weather Mosaic is well positioned for the spring season
Slide 6: Fourth quarter outlook
Fourth quarter outlook The issue is timing, not tonnes Price risk aversion remains high, impacting timing of fertilizer purchases and willingness to hold inventories Potash Fourth Quarter 2012 Guidance Sales volume 1.7 – 2.2 million tonnes MOP selling price $420 – $450 per tonne Up from 1.1 million
Slide 7: Financial Results Review
Financial Results Review
Slide 8: Q3 FY12 net sales
Q3 FY12 Q3 FY12 vs. Q3 FY11 Net Sales reflect delayed purchasing Revenue $2.2 billion (1)% Phosphates $1.7 billion 13% Potash $553 million (27) % • Phosphates sales volume: – 2.6 million tonnes, up 9% • DAP price (FOB Central FL): – $536 / tonne, down 1% • Potash sales volume: – 1.1 million tonnes,
Slide 9: Q3 FY12 gross margin
Q3 FY12 Gross margin Q3 FY12 vs. Q3 FY11 Earnings reflect higher Phosphates raw material costs and lower Potash volumes Consolidated 24% $522 million (39)% Phosphates 16% $259 million (43)% Potash 49% $270 million (34)%
Slide 10: Reported Earnings
Reported Earnings ($ in million except per share) Q3 FY12 Net Earnings and EPS Earnings Before Taxes $355 Net Earnings $273 EPS $0.64 Impact of Notable Items $(0.08)
Slide 11: Potash Segment Highlights
In millions, except MOP price Q3 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY11 Potash Segment Highlights Net sales $553 $839 $758 Gross Margin $270 $394 $412 Percent of net sales 49% 47% 54% Operating earnings $234 $358 $414 Sales volumes 1.1 1.8 1.9 Production volume 1.8 1.8 2.0 Production operating rate 79% 78% 90% Avg MO
Slide 12: Phosphates Segment Highlights
In millions, except DAP price Q3 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY11 Phosphates Segment Highlights Net sales $1,652 $2,179 $1,458 Gross Margin $259 $476 $454 percent of net sales 16% 22% 31% Operating earnings $190 $432 $372 Sales volumes 2.6 3.2 2.4 NA production volume (a) 2.0 2.1 2.0 Finished product operating
Slide 13: Phosphate Raw Material Costs – Ammonia
Phosphate Raw Material Costs Ammonia $/tonne Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Realized ammonia costs, in most periods shown, include a benefit of our manufacture of ammonia at Faustina. $431 $589 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12
Slide 14: Phosphate Raw Material Costs – Sulfur
Phosphate Raw Material Costs Sulfur Costs $/long ton Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Sulfur realized prices include storage, conversion and transformation costs of $10 - $15 / ton. $228 $211 $0 $100 $200 $300 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12
Slide 15: Phosphate Rock Sourcing
Phosphate Rock Sourcing Rock Mix used in U.S. Operations $- $25 $50 $75 $100 - 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 US mined rock Purchased Miski Mayo rock Other purchased rock
Slide 16: Financial Guidance Summary – Fiscal 2012
Category Guidance – Fiscal 2012 Potash Q4 Sales volume 1.7 – 2.2 million tonnes Q4 MOP selling price $420 – $450 per tonne Q4 Operating rate above 70 percent Phosphates Q4 Sales volume 2.3 – 2.7 million tonnes Q4 DAP selling price $460 - $490 per tonne Q4 Operating rate above 80 percent Capital Expe
Slide 17: Thank you
The Mosaic Company Thank you
Slide 18: Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers
Change Estimated Change in Pre-Tax Earnings ($ in millions) Estimated Change in Annual EPS Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers (a) MOP Price ($/tonne) $50 $313 $0.51 Potash Volume (000 tonnes) $159 $0.26 DAP Price ($/tonne) $50 $407 $0.66 Phosphates Volume (000 tonnes) $99 $0.16 Sulfur ($/lt) $25 $8