Capital Power Corporation · TSX:CPX
Capital Power — Investor Day (December 2013)
87 slides from Capital Power's investor day presentation, Dec 5, 2013
Slide 1: Capital Power Investor Day 2013
CAPITAL POWER INVESTOR DAY 2013 December 5, 2013
Slide 2: Forward-looking information
Forward-looking information Cautionary statement Certain information in today’s presentations and in responses to questions contains forward-looking information. Actual results could differ materially from conclusions, forecasts or projections in the forward-looking information, and certain material
Slide 3: Our management team
Our management team Brian Vaasjo President & CEO Kate Todd Bryan Darcy Stuart Chisholm Gilchrist DeNeve Trufyn Lee SVP Legal & SVP Human SVP Corporate SVP Operations, SVP Finance External Resources, Development & Engineering & & CFO Relations Health, Safety Commercial Construction & Environment Serv
Slide 4: Agenda – "Top 12" questions from investors
Agenda – “Top 12” questions from investors 8:30 – Introduction 8:40 am 1. How has Capital Power’s strategy evolved? (B. Vaasjo) 2. Why is AB considered to be the most attractive power market in North America? 8:40 – (B. DeNeve) 10:00 3. Why is Capital Power the preferred way to play the AB power mar
Slide 5: 1. How has Capital Power's strategy evolved?
1. How has Capital Power’s strategy evolved? Brian Vaasjo President & CEO
Slide 6: Capital Power's vision
Capital Power’s vision “To be recognized as one of North America’s most respected, reliable and competitive power generators” 6
Slide 7: Capital Power strategy
Capital Power strategy Operational excellence • Quality of assets and maintenance • Commodity management to achieve higher realized value and stability Financial strategy • Maintaining an investment grade credit rating • Access to capital at a reasonable cost • Maintaining an appropriate level o
Slide 8: Power generation outlook
Power generation outlook Regulatory Economic Coal Political Recovery Retirement Stability 2009 U.S. Today Alberta Today 8
Slide 9: 2009 Contracted/Merchant
2009 Contracted/Merchant Contracted 9
Slide 10: 2011 Contracted/Merchant
2011 Contracted/Merchant Contracted 10
Slide 11: Today Contracted/Merchant
Today Contracted/Merchant Contracted 11
Slide 12: Results
Results Operational excellence • Great availability • Consistent and strong commodity management • Interests from 31 assets to 14 assets today • Younger fleet with fewer fuel types • Cost optimization and risk reduction Financial strategy • Maintain investment grade credit rating • Strong and gr
Slide 13: Disciplined growth
Disciplined growth Development and/or construction of 7 assets totalling ~$3.4B Net acquisition of 3 contracted assets for $0.3B Sale of interests in 25 assets for ~$1.0B Balance sheet has grown from $3.5B to $5.2B Significant contribution to cash flow per share and lower risk profile from
Slide 14: 2. Why is Alberta the most attractive power market in North America?
2. Why is Alberta considered to be the most attractive power market in North America? Bryan DeNeve SVP Corporate Development & Commercial Services
Slide 15: Overview of Alberta market
Overview of Alberta market Alberta has a competitive wholesale energy and ancillary services market with an installed generation capacity of ~14,000 MW No capacity market – generators must recover all costs through revenue earned in Alberta’s energy and ancillary services market Entire provinc
Slide 16: Desirable characteristics of Alberta electricity market
Desirable characteristics of Alberta electricity market Adequate price signals Stable market design Stable environmental policy Significant supply retirements Strong load growth 16
Slide 17: Average annual wholesale price reflects the cost of new generation
Average annual wholesale price reflects the cost of new generation $100 $90 $90 $81 $81 $80 $76 $71 $70 $70 $67 $63 $64 $60 $55 $51 $/MWh $50 $48 $44 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17
Slide 18: Stable market design has signalled the addition of 6 GW of new generation
Stable market design has signalled the addition of 6 GW of new generation 1,200 30% 1,000 25% 800 20% Capacity Reserve 600 15% (MW) Margin 400 10% 200 5% 0 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 New capacity AESO's historical reserve margin 18
Slide 19: Alberta emissions regulations
Alberta emissions regulations GHG emissions SO2 emissions NOx emissions Mercury Particulate matter Certainty in air emissions regulations will provide for orderly retirements, development of replacement generation, and improving environmental outcomes 19
Slide 20: Expected coal unit retirements
Expected coal unit retirements Total coal capacity (MW) CASA Financial Compliance 7,000 2019: Sundance 1&2 Capital Stock Turnover (576 MW); Battle River 3 (149 MW); H.R. Milner 6,000 (144 MW) 5,000 2025-29: Sundance 3-6 (1,563 MW); Battle River 4&5 (540 MW); Keephills 1&2 (790 MW) 4,000 3,000 2,000
Slide 21: Alberta demand outlook
Alberta demand outlook Growth in total electricity sales (%) “Alberta’s future power 2012 to 2020(1) demand outlook is also fairly 25% robust, especially compared with that of most other 20% jurisdictions in North America, because of a 15% strong provincial economy; a growing population from 10% inw
Slide 22: Alberta market
Alberta market Projected reserve margin signals the need for new capacity in the 2017-2020 timeframe(1,2) (1) Source: AESO and CPC estimates - Nov/13. (2) Coal retirements based on CASA End of Design Life Year (except units that have announced intentions to retrofit or run to Capital Stock Turnover)
Slide 23: Alberta market
Alberta market (1) Alberta market design expected to continue to provide timely pricing signals for the addition of new supply (1) Source: AESO and CPC estimates - Nov/13. 23
Slide 24: Alberta market
Alberta market “…analysis confirms that, from a resource adequacy and generation investment perspective, the Alberta electricity market is generally well functioning based on current market conditions and policies. The current market design should be able to address the identified resource adequacy
Slide 25: 3. Why is Capital Power the preferred way to play the Alberta power market?
3. Why is Capital Power the preferred way to play the Alberta power market? Bryan DeNeve SVP Corporate Development & Commercial Services
Slide 26: Strengths of Capital Power in Alberta
Strengths of Capital Power in Alberta Alberta construction expertise Stability and incremental value from active commodity portfolio management Diversified assets Emissions exposure management Growing origination function Young generation fleet 26
Slide 27: Industry leading project development and construction experience in Alberta
Industry leading project development and construction experience in Alberta(1) 2,500 $6.0 $5.0B 2,250 $5.0 2,000 1,750 Total cost $4.0 1,500 $3.2B MWs $2.9B $B 1,250 $3.0 1,000 $2.0 750 $1.0B 500 $0.8B $1.0 250 0 $0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Genesee 3 Clover Bar Keephi
Slide 28: Capturing upside from Alberta power prices
Capturing upside from Alberta power prices Hedging positions based primarily on generation from Genesee 3 and Keephills 3 baseload coal plants and output from the Sundance PPA Actively trading throughout various time periods to minimize portfolio risks, create incremental value, and reduce volat
Slide 29: Diverse generation fleet in Alberta
Diverse generation fleet in Alberta 2,355 MWs in 2015(1) Genesee 1 & 2 Joffre Cogen Genesee 3 & Clover Bar Energy Halkirk Wind Shepard Energy •860 MW low cost •192 MW capacity Keephills 3 Centre •Largest wind farm Centre baseload coal under from jointly-owned •506 MW merchant •Most responsive in Alb
Slide 30: 2015 Alberta power generation stack
2015 Alberta power generation stack(1) 100% Other Gas peaking Capital Power 30% 90% Gas mid-merit Capital Power 34% 80% 70% Cogen 60% Capital Power 4% 50% 40% Coal 30% 20% Capital Power 20% 10% Hydro Wind 0% Capital Power 11% (1) Capital Power’s percentages reflect ownership interest and excludes Su
Slide 31: Proven ability to manage environmental commodity exposure
Proven ability to manage environmental commodity exposure Dedicated team of five focused on transforming environmental commodity risk into an opportunity – success in doing this has created a competitive advantage through lower compliance costs in Alberta This competitive advantage will be stren
Slide 32: Renewables and emissions portfolio
Renewables and emissions portfolio Unhedged vs hedged Capital Power Alberta SGER compliance costs 2013-2017 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 Compliance Costs ($M) $25 Annual AB SGER cost savings for $20 Capital Power $15 $10 $5 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Unhedged Hedged 32
Slide 33: Growing origination function
Growing origination function Origination provides access to an alternative channel to the wholesale segment and serves three major functions Development of the end-user market channel for Capital Power and support of competitive customer markets Delivery of value through warehousing of end-user
Slide 34: Average age of Alberta coal fleet
Average age of Alberta coal fleet Genesee 2 Genesee 1 Capital Power: 15 Years(1) Genesee 3 Keephills 3 Keephills 1 Keephills 2 Sundance 1 Sundance 2 TransAlta: 30 Years(1) Sundance 3 Sundance 4 Sundance 5 Sundance 6 Sheerness 2 Sheerness 1 ATCO: 32 Years(1) BR5 BR4 BR3 Maxim: 41 Years(1) H.R. Milner
Slide 35: 4. What is Capital Power doing to drive long term sustained operational excellence?
4. What is Capital Power doing to drive long term sustained operational excellence? Darcy Trufyn SVP Operations, Engineering & Construction
Slide 36: Overview
Overview Significant improvements implemented in 2013 within operations Significant cost improvements made in 2013 without negatively impacting high Capital Power operating & maintenance (O&M) standards Focus on Reliability Program – our proactive approach to improving availability Fewer surpr
Slide 37: Bending the cost curve
Bending the cost curve Capital Power is committed to cost optimization at our facilities without sacrificing short or long term availability Results: 12% reduction from 2012 actual vs. 2014 budget non-fuel O&M(1) Sustaining capital projects focus only on projects that improve safety or plant per
Slide 38: Fleet O&M and sustaining capital
Fleet O&M and sustaining capital(1) The trend is towards more efficient use of resources in both O&M spending and sustaining capital program Total non-fuel O&M and CAPEX spending excluding planned outages 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2012 2013T 2014T Adjusted O&M Adjusted CAPEX (1) Adjusted for current f
Slide 39: Fleet performance
Fleet performance Reliability program implemented with the intent of improving availability and reducing lost revenue opportunity over the next 5 years Operational improvements implemented in 2013 to Maintenance Tools and RCA/MOC processes will improve availability and help to eliminate surprise
Slide 40: Benchmarking Genesee availability
Benchmarking Genesee availability Unplanned Commercial Availability is the percentage of time that our units had the opportunity to generate revenue but were unable to due to a unplanned event Genesee has maintained a consistent performance across the units to date Genesee 3 (G3) has experienced
Slide 41: Southport & Roxboro – improvement journey
Southport & Roxboro – improvement journey Major improvements made during 2013 at both Roxboro and Southport, North Carolina to improve output and cost effectiveness Improvements include: Fuel handling Fuel optimization Boiler efficiencies/bag house Wood storage capacity at Southport Results:
Slide 42: 5. Has the financial strategy changed?
5. Has the financial strategy changed? Stuart Lee SVP, Finance & CFO
Slide 43: Financial strength
Financial strength Committed to investment grade credit rating Financial strength Investment grade credit ratings Agency Ratings Outlook Debt-to-capital ratio of ~33% at 2014 S&P BBB- / P-3 Stable year-end remains below long-term DBRS BBB / Pfd-3 (low) Stable target of 40% - 50% Debt to total ca
Slide 44: Capital structure and access to capital
Capital structure and access to capital Strong balance sheet(1) Assets of ~$5.2B with ~$1.5B of third party debt $1.2B in credit facilities, of which ~$1.0B available • Additional $300M accordion feature Ample liquidity resulting in balance sheet strength and flexibility 100 Access to capital
Slide 45: Debt maturity schedule
Debt maturity schedule(1) Term on credit facilities extended to 5 years $400 $350 $314 $305 $300 $255 $250 US$230 ($M) $200 $179 $144 $150 $100 US$65 $50 $19 $15 $13 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 EPCOR Debt Capital Markets Debt Bank Debt Well spread-out debt maturities are s
Slide 46: Credit metrics
Credit metrics(1) Above DBRS financial criteria for current rating Adj. Cash flow/Adj. Debt EBITDA/Adj. Interest 25% 6.0 20% 5.0 4.0 15% 3.0 10% 2.0 5% 1.0 0% 0.0 2013T 2014T 2013T 2014T Above S&P financial criteria for investment grade rating Adj. FFO/Adj. Debt(2) Corporate Liquidity 25% 3.5 20% 3.
Slide 47: Corporate structure
Corporate structure Current structure optimal to finance Alberta business Hybrid contracted/merchant independent power producers (IPPs) not realizing value of contracted asset base in their stock valuations Has led to several successful launches of yieldco’s in both the U.S. and Canada Other U
Slide 48: Corporate structure
Corporate structure Our experience with Capital Power Income L.P. provides background for some of the longer term challenges Simplification of our story should provide better visibility of contracted cash flow Significant growth in contracted cash flow should provide basis for multiple expansi
Slide 49: Improving contracted cash flow
Improving contracted cash flow(1,2) $400 $350 $300 $M $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2012A 2013T 2014T 2015T Genesee 1&2 Kingsbridge 1 North Carolina Island Generation Quality Wind Halkirk PD&N Shepard K2 Wind Substantial expansion of contracted operating margin from ~$225M to $375M from 2012 to 2015 (6
Slide 50: Development projects – CAPEX
Development projects – CAPEX ($M) Prior to 2013 2013T 2014T Project total Port Dover & Nanticoke $68 $230 $17 $315 K2 Wind(1) $3 $26 $31 $291 Shepard Energy Centre(2) $50 $650 $121 $821 $121 $906 $169 $1,427 Continue strong execution of CAPEX program Port Dover & Nanticoke Shepard Energy Centre (1)
Slide 51: Cash flow and financing outlook
Cash flow and financing outlook Sufficient sources of cash flow to meet dividends, development projects and sustaining CAPEX Sources of cash flow ($M) 2013T 2014T Funds from operations(1) $400 $380 Preferred share offering $200 - Net proceeds from sale of US Northeast assets $556 - Uses of cash flow
Slide 52: 6. What does the growth pipeline look like?
6. What does the growth pipeline look like? Bryan DeNeve SVP Corporate Development & Commercial Services
Slide 53: Disciplined growth focused on contracted development assets
Disciplined growth focused on contracted development assets Merchant Geography CBEC Keephills 3 Technology Financial Genesee 4&5 Shepard Flexibility Develop within Target Acquire Halkirk Zone K2 Wind Island Generation PD&N Quality Wind Contracted 53
Slide 54: Capital Power markets
Capital Power markets Operating Plants Under Construction Natural Gas Wind Development Sites Natural Gas Wind Solar 54
Slide 55: Alberta outlook
Alberta outlook Market opportunity: Strong load growth – new supply needed in 2018 to 2020 timeframe Certainty around coal fired retirements Aging generating units resulting in declining availability Stable market design Appropriate market signals Strong trading capabilities Growth pipel
Slide 56: Shepard Energy Centre
Shepard Energy Centre 20-year tolling agreement on 50% of owned capacity with ENMAX Additional 25% contracted for 2015, 2016 and 2017 which increases cash flow certainty during an expected period of low pool prices in Alberta Additional cash flow certainty created by hedging Capital Power’s ex
Slide 57: Genesee 4&5
Genesee 4&5 Capital Power will develop Genesee 4&5 in a 50/50 joint venture with ENMAX Capital Power to lead construction and will be the operator Definitive agreements will be completed in Q1, 2014 Genesee provides significant advantages for the development of a new combined cycle unit give
Slide 58: British Columbia
British Columbia Market opportunity: LNG expected to use gas drive technology versus electrical BC Hydro expected to periodically issue a call for renewable power to meet government’s environmental objectives Natural gas is gaining acceptance for electricity generation and gas opportunities wi
Slide 59: Pacific Northwest
Pacific Northwest Adjacent to the operational Frederickson 1 facility, Washington State Strategically located for Puget Sound Energy (PSE) with direct- connecting to PSE’s system Fully permitted for a 290 MW combined cycle gas turbine in 2008 PSE’s latest integrated resource plan identifies
Slide 60: US Southwest
US Southwest Market opportunity: Significant coal and nuclear retirements (San Juan 2&3, Navajo 3, SONGS) Significant gas-fired peaking resources required Fortune 100 firms looking to “green” energy consumption Replacement of once-through-cooling plants in southern California On-going rene
Slide 61: Ontario
Ontario Market opportunity: Nuclear refurbishment/replacement strategy becomes clearer with no plans for new incremental capacity Peaking capacity needed with additional renewable resources Minimal development of large scale renewables Gas-fired generation opportunities with the retirement o
Slide 62: K2 Wind
K2 Wind K2 Wind is a joint partnership of Capital Power, Samsung and Pattern to build and own a 270 MW wind project Hearings complete on Renewable Energy Approval appeal at Environment Review Tribunal (ERT) with decision expected by February 6, 2014 Received Ontario Energy Board decision grant
Slide 63: New York
New York Market opportunity: Contracted opportunities on Long Island in the short term Potential contracted opportunities in the long term (2019 to 2020) if Long Island plants are not repowered to meet load growth Contracted opportunities in the Hudson Valley as a result of transmission constr
Slide 64: U.S. East renewable
U.S. East renewable Market opportunity: 19 states east of the Mississippi River have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) with limited indigenous resources to meet load New transmission projects make import of wind cost competitive We will pursue development sites in regions we believe long-ter
Slide 65: 7. What is the status of projects under construction?
7. What is the status of projects under construction? Darcy Trufyn SVP Operations, Engineering & Constructions
Slide 66: Port Dover & Nanticoke wind farm
Port Dover & Nanticoke wind farm Scope: 58 Vestas V-100 WTGs(1) – 105 MW capacity Location: Haldiman and Norfolk County, Ontario Schedule: COD(2) attained on schedule – Nov 7, 2013 Cost: $340M budget. Forecast ~7% underrun Safety: TRIF of 1.19(3) Another successful development and construc
Slide 67: Shepard Energy Center
Shepard Energy Center Scope: 800 MW, 2 on 1 combined cycle natural Progress gas power plant Overall project 85% Ownership: 50/50 joint venture with ENMAX Engineering 90% Schedule: Planned COD advanced to early 2015 Substation 100% Cost: Capital Power’s portion of project budget Transmission
Slide 68: 8. What are the financial impacts from the Shepard and K2 Wind projects?
8. What are the financial impacts from the Shepard and K2 Wind projects? Stuart Lee SVP, Finance & CFO
Slide 69: Shepard Energy Centre
Shepard Energy Centre Modelling guidance $120 Assumptions $100 2015 price assumption $M based on current forward $80 price $60 $40 Expect to see power prices 2015 2016 2017 2018 recover through 2018 Adjusted EBITDA 100% Sensitivity 80% 60% +$5/MWh change escalates 40% Adjusted EBITDA by ~$2M 2
Slide 70: K2 Wind
K2 Wind Modelling guidance $50 Assumptions $40 2015 power price at $M $30 $149/MWh, escalating post $20 COD based on Feed-in-tariff $10 (FIT) contract $0 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Adjusted EBITDA based on Adjusted EBITDA net capacity factor (NCF) of 43% $155 $153 $151 $/MWh $149 $147 $145 2015E 20
Slide 71: 9. What is Capital Power's cash flow outlook?
9. What is Capital Power’s cash flow outlook? Stuart Lee SVP, Finance & CFO
Slide 72: Focus on contracted margins
Focus on contracted margins Sale of Northeast U.S. assets improves contracted operating margin relative to merchant operating margin Focus on merchant operations in Alberta will provide upside as the Alberta supply-demand balance tightens over the longer term Contracted vs. Merchant mix Contract
Slide 73: Continued strong cash flow generation
Continued strong cash flow generation Funds from operations (FFO) $400 Expect to exceed target of $385M- $415M in FFO in 2013 $350 ~37% ~39% Target for 2014 expected to be $300 34% 35% lower due to low Alberta power ($M) prices $250 35%+ of 2011-2012 FFO is $200 ~27% 28% 31% ~22% discretionary
Slide 74: Accounting and accretion for wind projects
Accounting and accretion for wind projects Port Dover & Nanticoke K2 Wind COD Nov 7/13; forecast at $315M, COD 2015, Capital Power’s equity significantly under $340M budget portion is $291M 20-year PPA at $144/MWh 20-year PPA at $149/MWh Project is a capital lease and will 1/3 equity own
Slide 75: AFFO yield inconsistent with peers
AFFO yield inconsistent with peers 2013E AFFO Yield1,2,3 Capstone Infrastructure Corp. 14.8% Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. 8.3% Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. 9.7% Northland Power Inc. 7.4% AFFO yield average4= 9.8% Enbridge Inc. 6.5% Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners 6.7% Boralex Inc. 9.2%
Slide 76: Financial guidance
Financial guidance Targeting 2014 funds from operations of $360-$400M Since the IPO in mid-2009, the complexity of our financial disclosure has reduced and analysts are generally modelling the company correctly • Current analyst consensus of cash flow and EPS is consistent with our internal view
Slide 77: 10. What is Capital Power's view on dividends?
10. What is Capital Power’s view on dividends? Stuart Lee SVP, Finance & CFO
Slide 78: Dividends
Dividends Contracted cash flow base Contracted operating margin to supplemented with hedge position financial obligations(1) and dividends provide downside protection in lower 120% price environment 110% >90% hedged in 2014. Minimum AB 100% power price of ~$11/MW for free cash 90% flow to meet d
Slide 79: 11. What are Capital Power's corporate priorities in 2014?
11. What are Capital Power’s corporate priorities in 2014? Brian Vaasjo President & CEO
Slide 80: 2014 Corporate priorities
2014 Corporate priorities Priority: Deliver strong operational performance from a young, well- maintained generation fleet Operational targets 95% Capacity-weighted plant availability (reflects planned turnarounds at Genesee 2 & 3) $85M Maintenance capital (plant maintenance capital and other capita
Slide 81: 2014 Corporate priorities
2014 Corporate priorities Priority: Enhance value for shareholders by delivering accretive growth from new developments Development and construction targets On-time, on-budget and • Shepard Energy Centre project (complete safe development of construction with COD in early 2015) committed projects •
Slide 82: 2014 Corporate priorities
2014 Corporate priorities Funds from operations of $360M to $400M is based on a forecasted average Alberta power price of $57/MWh Financial target 2013-14 year-over-year changes Funds from operations(1) $500 Reallocate proceeds from New $385 to $360 to England asset sale to Shepard $400 $415 $400
Slide 83: 12. Why invest in Capital Power?
12. Why invest in Capital Power? Brian Vaasjo President & CEO
Slide 84: Why invest in Capital Power?
Why invest in Capital Power? Excellent assets in good markets Very good operating and trading performance Over the past year – reductions in risk, financial volatility and operating cost base Best fleet in Alberta, the best power market in North America Substantial growth in contracted cas
Slide 85: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 86: Non-GAAP financial measures
Non-GAAP financial measures Capital Power uses (i) adjusted EBITDA, (ii) funds from operations, and (iii) discretionary cash flow as financial performance measures. These terms are not defined financial measures according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and do not have standardize
Slide 87: Forward-looking information
Forward-looking information Certain information in this Investor Day presentation is forward-looking within the meaning of Canadian securities laws as it relates to anticipated financial and operating performance, events or strategies. The forward-looking information or statements are provided to in