Slide 1: Results & Outlook
Results & Outlook February 2016 Results & Outlook, February 2016
Slide 2: Results & Outlook
Results & Outlook February 2016 Patrick Pouyanné Chairman and CEO Results & Outlook, February 2016
Slide 3: Safety, a core value
Safety, a core value The cornerstone of operational efficiency Total Recordable Injury Rate for Total and peers* Safety and operational performance go hand in hand Per million man-hours 3 3 95% -12% per year 22 22 11 11 0 85% 2010 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 R&C TRIR R&C availability (%) * Group TRIR e
Slide 4: Resilient 2015 performance
Resilient 2015 performance Safety, Delivery, Costs and Cash Benefiting from the integrated model 9.4% production growth 8 B$ Downstream cash generation Exceeded cost reduction targets Results & Outlook, February 2016 3
Slide 5: 2015 Results
2015 Results Patrick de La Chevardière Chief Financial Officer
Slide 6: Steep decline in commodity prices
Steep decline in commodity prices One year into the cycle Brent ($/b) and ERMI ($/t) Gas ($/Mbtu) 20 110 10 52 8 50 49 7 3 -10 2006 2015 2006 2015 Brent ERMI Asian proxy NBP HH 2015 liquids realizations: -47% 2015 gas realizations: -33% Results & Outlook, February 2016 5
Slide 7: Resilient 2015 results
Resilient 2015 results Strong Downstream contribution Adjusted net income Adjusted net income B$ % change 2015 vs 2014 for Total and peers** 10.5 B$ Brent Marketing & Services -15% Refining & -18% Chemicals -40% Upstream -47% Corporate* -65% 2015 * Including net cost of net debt and minority interes
Slide 8: Robust 2015 cash generation
Robust 2015 cash generation Leveraging the integrated business model Cash flow allocation Cash flow from operations B$ % change 2015 vs 2014 for Total and peers* 22.6 B$ Brent 0% Financing Net asset sales -20% 23.0 Organic investment -22% CFFO -40% -47% Cash dividend -60% Sources Uses * Peers: BP, C
Slide 9: Portfolio management integrated into strategy
Portfolio management integrated into strategy On track to achieve 2015-17 sales program 2015-17 asset sale program B$ 10 B$ Delivering asset sales as planned 5 2016 target increased to 4 B$ Fort Hills in response to environment FUKA Geosel G. Krog Laggan Schwedt Turkey Monetizing non-core assets and
Slide 10: Securing future with 107% reserve replacement ratio
Securing future with 107% reserve replacement ratio >20 years of proved and probable reserves Proved reserves Organic reserve replacement rate Bboe 3-year average Additions 11.5 11.6 118% Portfolio 93% Production 2014 2015 2010-12 2011-13 2012-14 2013-15 Supported by ADCO license extension Results &
Slide 11: Priority to strong balance sheet
Priority to strong balance sheet Lower gearing despite weaker environment Net debt-to-equity ratio % 31% 28% Access to financial markets on attractive terms Maintaining sufficient liquidity 5.4 B$ after-tax impairments in 2015 2014 2015 Brent ($/b) 99 52 Results & Outlook, February 2016 10
Slide 12: Delivering on our commitments
Delivering on our commitments Building on a solid 2015 track record 2015 objectives Target Realized Capex 23-24 B$ 23.0 B$ Opex savings 1.2 B$ 1.5 B$ Exploration 1.9 B$ 1.9 B$ 2014 asset sales closed 4 B$ 3.5 B$ 2015 asset sales signed 5 B$ 4 B$ Production growth > 8% +9.4% Reserve additions 1.2 Bbo
Slide 13: Outperforming peer group in 2015
Outperforming peer group in 2015 Strong performance across all segments Adjusted net income* Upstream production growth* 10% -20% 5% -45% 0% -70% -5% Cash flow from operations* Return on equity 10% -20% -50% 0% * % change 2015 vs 2014 for Total, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell – based on public data
Slide 14: 2016 Outlook
2016 Outlook Patrick Pouyanné Chairman and CEO
Slide 15: Adapting 2016 Capex to lower oil price
Adapting 2016 Capex to lower oil price Increasing flexibility as projects start up Organic Capex 2016 Organic Capex B$ B$ New Energies Downstream ~30% 26.4 B$ Exploration 23.0 B$ ~19 B$ 17-19 B$ Upstream assets Upstream 2014 2015 2016 2017+ under development producing assets Previous guidance: 23-24
Slide 16: Company fully mobilized on Opex reduction
Company fully mobilized on Opex reduction 2015 Opex savings target surpassed 2015-17 Opex reduction Contribution to operating results* - B$ >3 B$ 2.4 B$ Corporate Downstream 1.5 B$ >1.2 0.8 Upstream Initial Revised Achieved New 2017 2015 target 2015 target 2015 2016 target target * Including impact
Slide 17: Driving down E&P Opex by 35%
Driving down E&P Opex by 35% Lowest technical costs among peers Operating costs (ASC932) Technical costs (ASC932) for Total and peers* $/boe $/boe 9.9 -35% 40 -19% 7.4 2014-15 6.5 20 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 * Peers: BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell – based on public data Results &
Slide 18: Strong production growth
Strong production growth Exceeded 2015 target Production Production Mboe/d % change 2015 vs 2014 for Total and peers* +5% per year 3 2014-19 +4% +9.4% 10% 2.35 2.15 5% 1 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 -5% * Peers: BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell – based on public data Results & Outlook, February 2016 17
Slide 19: Five major projects starting up in 2016
Five major projects starting up in 2016 Ramping up nine 2015 start-ups Laggan-Tormore, UK Production from new start-ups Total 60% op., 90 kboe/d* kboe/d 300 Angola LNG Total 13.6%, 150 kboe/d* Laggan-Tormore 200 Vega Pleyade Vega Pleyade, Argentina Incahuasi Total 37.5% op., 70 kboe/d* Angola LNG Ka
Slide 20: Focused exploration program starting to deliver results
Focused exploration program starting to deliver results 2016 budget of 1.5 B$ Vaca Muerta Ukot South, Owowo West Shwe Yee Htun Argentina Nigeria Myanmar 11 blocks, Total 24-45% Total 18-20% Total 40% Exploration Appraisal Unconventional Leo, Fenix Libra NW Elk-Antelope Argentina Brazil Papua New Gui
Slide 21: Harvesting benefits of Downstream restructuring
Harvesting benefits of Downstream restructuring Strong contribution expected in 2016 Downstream adjusted CFFO Downstream ROACE for Total and peers* B$ % 32% ~7 B$ 8 ROACE 30% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2015 ERMI ($/t) 17 36 18 19 49 35 * Peers: BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell – based on pu
Slide 22: More than 500 M$/y additional cash from R&C projects
More than 500 M$/y additional cash from R&C projects 20% European capacity reduction achieved by end-2016 Lindsey Antwerp Reducing capacity Starting new by 50% 4Q16 conversion unit 3Q16 La Mède SATORP Converting to Capacity creep bio-refinery 2017 to 440 kb/d Normandy Antwerp Port Arthur Daesan Sato
Slide 23: M&S generating close to 2 B$ of cash flow from operations
M&S generating close to 2 B$ of cash flow from operations Growing retail and lubricants by 4% per year Retail network sales Retail network Mt/y European repositioning Lubricants +6% 2014-15 Increasing market share in 35 key markets 15 2013 2014 2015 2016 Building on leadership Targeting market share
Slide 24: Reducing cash flow breakeven
Reducing cash flow breakeven Maintaining scrip dividend in 2016 Free cash flow* Organic free cash flow** B$ B$ 13 80 $/b 10 5 1 Cash dividend -3 -1 2015 2016 2017 2019 Brent 52 $/b 50 $/b 40 $/b Brent 60 $/b 60 $/b ERMI -3 49 $/t 35 $/t 35 $/t ERMI 25 $/t 25 $/t * CFFO + net asset sales - Capex ** C
Slide 25: Committed to shareholder return
Committed to shareholder return 100% cash dividend at 60 $/b from 2017 Pay-out ratio Total shareholder return ranking* % As of December 31, 2015 - $ 60% 58% 1 50% 2 3 1 year 1 2 3 2 years 1 2 3 2013 2014 2015 3 years Brent ($/b) 109 99 52 * Bloomberg data for Total, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell
Slide 26: Lower prices jeopardizing global oil supply
Lower prices jeopardizing global oil supply 1/3 of new supply needed for 2020 at risk Oil supply and demand Mb/d 5-10 Mb/d unidentified Decline accelerating 100 Reducing activity in North America 5% decline New supply Industry delaying FIDs ~20 ~25 50 Low level of OPEC spare capacity 2015 2020 Resul
Slide 27: Group strategy integrating 2°C roadmap
Group strategy integrating 2°C roadmap Sustainable business model Global energy demand Mboe/d IEA 2°C scenario* Focusing on oil projects with low breakevens 300 Solar / Wind Bio-energy Hydro Nuclear Prioritizing gas projects Coal Oil Exiting coal business Natural Gas Growing in renewables and biofue
Slide 28: Ramping up response to 2016 environment
Ramping up response to 2016 environment Staying the course to reduce breakeven Safety, a core value Delivering in all segments • Project execution • Operational efficiency Reducing 2016 costs • Capex decreased to ~19 B$ • Opex savings increased to 2.4 B$ Lowering cash breakeven Results & Outlook, Fe
Slide 29: Results & Outlook
Results & Outlook February 2016 Patrick Pouyanné Patrick de La Chevardière Chairman and CEO CFO Results & Outlook, February 2016
Slide 30: Results & Outlook
Results & Outlook February 2016 Results & Outlook, February 2016