56 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, Aug 26, 2025
Slide 1: ASX cover letter: Investor Update August 2025
26 August 2025 ASX Market Announcements ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 BY ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT For personal use only Investor Update – August 2025 Please find attached Investor Update Presentation. The information contained in this document has been prepared for use in conjunction with
Slide 2: Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd Investor Update August 2025
For personal use only Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager Todd Warren, Partner Investor Update August 2025 Private And Confidential. Not For Public Distribution. 1 August 2025
Slide 3: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (ABN 16 627 596 418) (“TGF”) by its investment manager, Tribeca Global Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 11 606 707 662) (“Tribeca”) under AFS License 239070 (Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd). The information contai
Slide 4: Executive Summary
Executive Summary • Corporate Update: TGF has declared a fully franked final dividend of 5 cents per share for FY25 and an on-market buyback of up to 10% of shares on issue. The latter has the potential to deliver more than A$50m in accretion to shareholders, 1 a goal that the For personal use only
Slide 5: Dividend
Corporate Update – Dividend • TGF has declared a fully franked final dividend of 5 cents per share for FY25 For personal use only • Relevant dates include o Ex-dividend date: 2 September 2025 o Record date: 3 September 2025 o Dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) election date: 4 September 2025 o Payment
Slide 6: On-Market Share Buyback
Corporate Update – On-Market Share Buyback • On-market buyback of up to 10% of shares on issue announced Previous on-market share buybacks have yielded positive results 200 70% For personal use only TGF Discount to NTA (RHS) Shares Repurchased (Thousands, LHS) • Reflects continued confidence in TGF’
Slide 7: TGF Discount to NTA
Corporate Update – TGF Discount to NTA As NTA continues to break out of range, discount should close 2.50 -5% • TGF currently trades at a ~35% discount to NTA For personal use only NTA (post-tax) Discount to NTA 2.40 -10% • TGF’s post-tax NTA has largely ranged between A$1.85 and A$2.20 per 2.30 sha
Slide 8: Performance Update
Performance Update Performance Attribution by Sector (FY25) • The Company delivered a return of 3.2% in FY25 For personal use only PRECIOUS METALS • Comfortably outperformed all major natural resources indices URANIUM o MSCI Commodity Producers Index down 4% ARGYLE DIAMONDS o S&P GSCI down 6% o ASX
Slide 9: Performance Update
Performance Update FY Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YTD 2018 - 2019 -0.07% -0.36% -0.71% 0.16% -0.44% -0.16% 0.25% -3.24% 0.78% -3.78% For personal use only 2019 - 2020 -0.52% -1.93% -0.54% 0.60% 0.79% 3.67% -7.68% -7.52% -9.48% 5.74% 0.47% -13.96% -27.95% 2020 - 2021 4.52% -0.19%
Slide 10: Performance Update: Historical Exposures
Performance Update Historical Exposures Net Exposure Weight (June 2025) 180% For personal use only BASE METALS Long Exposure (%) Short Exposure (%) Gross Exposure (%) Net Exposure (%) 160% URANIUM 140% OIL AND GAS 120% DIVERSIFIED 100% PRECIOUS METALS 80% ARGYLE DIAMONDS 60% BATTERY METALS 40% BULKS
Slide 11: Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes
Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes Tribeca portfolio provides investors with diversified & risk-controlled exposure to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names For personal use only S&P GSCI Index Percentage Sector Weights (2025) Energy ~45%
Slide 12: TGF or BHP?
TGF or BHP? BHP’s copper growth pipeline is increasingly capital intensive Capital intensity (US$k/tpa CuEq) • TGF is more diversified, with a higher exposure to the long-term high For personal use only growth thematics of electrification and the energy transition 50 26-43 45 • BHP has been a premiu
Slide 13: Delivering Shareholder Returns Through Special Situations
Delivering Shareholder Returns Through Special Situations Return of select equities since TGF deal participation TGF’s proprietary research and relationships ensures its regular Share price performance (%, local currency) participation in the sector’s highest quality equity capital markets deals For
Slide 14: Market Update
For personal use only Market Update 13 August 2025
Slide 15: Market Structure Is Improving
Market Structure Is Improving Commodities increasingly strategic amid global trade tensions • US desire for critical minerals such as copper and rare earths highlights their For personal use only importance to building out energy and defence infrastructure • TGF is well positioned to capitalise on t
Slide 16: Commodities Increasingly Strategic
For personal use only Commodities Increasingly Strategic 15 August 2025
Slide 17: Critical Mineral Supply Chains of Renewed Importance
Critical Mineral Supply Chains of Renewed Importance US Rest of World Critical Mineral Net import reliance Production Apparent demand Leading producing country Production in leading country % of world total For personal use only Arsenic 100 0 9,100 Peru 627,000 95 Fluorspar 100 0 430,000 China 5,900
Slide 18: Copper Recognised as Pivotal to Energy Security
Copper Recognised as Pivotal to Energy Security The US imports 91% of its refined copper demand … … And the importance of access to the red metal has been made clear US President Donald Trump with the CEO’s of Rio Tinto and BHP Official and unofficial presidential comments regarding copper For perso
Slide 19: Rare Earths Required to Build Out Defence
Rare Earths Required to Build Out Defence China is punching well above its weight vs resource endowment … which poses a significant issue for the US defence sector Rare earths elements supply chain How rare earths are used in US defence For personal use only China US Australia Myanmar Others 100% F-
Slide 20: China's Policy Pivot
For personal use only China’s Policy Pivot 19 August 2025
Slide 21: Anti-Involution Policies a Prelude to 2016-18 Style Supply Side Reform?
“Anti-Involution” Policies a Prelude to 2016-18 Style Supply Side Reform? Major Supply Side Reforms Anti-Involution Policies Dimension for comparison 2016-18 (‘1.0’) 2025 (‘2.0’) Increased US tariffs and elevated geopolitical uncertainties, Stock market crash in 2015, RMB market turmoil in 2015-16,
Slide 22: Lithium a Key Pillar in China's Anti-Involution Push
Lithium A Key Pillar in China’s “Anti-Involution” Push Oversupply = lower commodity prices = lower converter margins… Crackdown could flip lithium market to deficit if lepidolite stays offline Profit margins at lithium converters (US$/t) Lithium surplus/deficit (kt) 35000 100 For personal use only B
Slide 23: Mega-Infrastructure to Support Domestic Demand
Mega-Infrastructure to Support Domestic Demand Construction of what would be the world’s largest hydropower dam For personal use only started on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet in July • Consisting of five cascade hydropower stations, the project would cost ~US$168bn, making it China’s single big
Slide 24: Additional Fiscal Policy Awaits US Tariff Implementation
Additional Fiscal Policy Awaits US Tariff Implementation Date Events Stimulus policies announced in China in the last twelve months: Late Aug 2025 (likely) NPC Standing Committee meeting For personal use only The 80th anniversary of Chinese victory in WWII and a military (1) Monetary policy measures
Slide 25: Economy Continues to Carry Capacity For Fiscal Expansion
Economy Continues to Carry Capacity For Fiscal Expansion China has capacity for stimulus with fiscal deficit under peak levels Economists expect the nation to draw on this capacity in 2H25 Augmented fiscal deficit (% of GDP) Augmented fiscal deficit change (y/y, % of GDP) 18 For personal use only Ge
Slide 26: We Have Seen This Movie Before And It Has A Happy Ending
We Have Seen This Movie Before And It Has A Happy Ending • Fuelled by the stimulus package announced earlier this year, the rally in Chinese equities continues to gain momentum • On average, the last five rallies in China have lasted more than 12 months and generated returns of +100% For personal us
Slide 27: Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive
For personal use only Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive
Slide 28: Structural Deficits for Key Commodities
Structural Deficits for Key Commodities Mined Copper Supply and Demand Forecasts (incl. AI effects) Uranium Concentrate Supply and Demand Forecasts For personal use only 30,000 200,000 Demand UPPER Scenario incl. AI / Demand DCs 180,000 Existing Mines 28,000 Non-committed mine projects (@ 100%) Rest
Slide 29: Global Power Consumption Increasing as a Result of Electrification
Global Power Consumption Increasing as a Result of Electrification US Electricity Generation 5-year CAGR EU-27 Electricity Generation 5-year CAGR 5.0% 5.0% For personal use only 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 201
Slide 30: Demand Growth Robust as China Grid Spend Accelerates
Demand Growth Robust as China Grid Spend Accelerates China’s State grid investment is accelerating and increasingly copper intensive Grid investment continues to underpin China’s copper demand growth State grid annual For personal use only Distribution as % total YoY change investment (Rmb bn) grid
Slide 31: Supply Materially Constrained by Underinvestment and Lack of Discoveries
Supply Materially Constrained by Underinvestment and Lack of Discoveries Global Mining capex cycle and underinvestment in new supply Major Copper Discoveries Over Time US$bn USc/Ib Mt US$bn For personal use only 180 Diversified Aluminium 6.0 180 5.0 Copper Iron Ore Coal Battery Materials 4.5 160 160
Slide 32: Existing And Future Supply Constantly Challenged
Existing And Future Supply Constantly Challenged Mined copper supply is consistently revised down as period nears Copper mine supply forecasts (ktpa) For personal use only 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Mar-21 Mar-22
Slide 33: Mine Development A Key Constraint, Particularly for Base Metals
Mine Development A Key Constraint, Particularly for Base Metals Average lead times of mines from discovery to production, 2002-2023 Copper and nickel mines take 6-24mths longer than the average to get from discovery to production For personal use only Discovery, exploration, studies Construction dec
Slide 34: Positioning Reversal
For personal use only Positioning Reversal 33 August 2025
Slide 35: Real Asset Valuations At Relative Extremes
Real Asset Valuations At Relative Extremes 1.1 Real Assets Relative To Financial Assets Since 1925 Rotation From Digital to Real Economy Underway S&P500 sector market cap, % of total 70 For personal use only 1 War on Inflation Real economy: industrials + financials + energy + materials Digital econo
Slide 36: Evolution of ESG policies by Big Asset Managers Will Drive Flow Back into Resources
Evolution of “ESG” policies by BIG Asset Managers will drive flow BACK into Resources For personal use only The $12 trillion world’s largest asset manager has changed its tune on how it implements ESG policy. ESG 1.0 ESG 2.0 ESG 3.0 “move to divest thermal coal assets and put “foresighted companies
Slide 37: The Woke Unwind Has Accelerated in 2025
The “Woke Unwind” Has Accelerated in 2025 US investor flows in sustainable equity funds % vs prior period For personal use only Sustainable Funds All Funds ESG 4.0 0.40% US investor flows 0.20% into ETFs have been broadly Since December 2024, EIGHT of the world’s largest financial neutral in 2025 0.
Slide 38: Materials Exposure Moving Higher But Metals & Mining Remain Underweight
Materials Exposure Moving Higher But Metals & Mining Remain Underweight LO and HF exposure to materials is beginning to tick up … Although Metals & Mining positioning remains weak Relative Weight of Materials in LO & HF holdings (as of Apr 2025) 3m change in LO relative weight in Materials industrie
Slide 39: Energy A Key Beneficiary With Positioning Scorched Earth
Energy A Key Beneficiary With Positioning Scorched Earth Long Only and Hedge Fund Exposure to Energy is low vs history All investor styles are underweight Energy Funds’ relative weight in Energy vs S&P 500 index (as of Apr 2025) Fund Managers’ positioning in the Energy sector, Apr. 2025 For personal
Slide 40: Metal & Energy Producers Set to Benefit, Return to Long Term Average Multiples
Metal & Energy Producers Set to Benefit, Return to Long Term Average Multiples The S&P Metals and Mining Index EV/EBITDA relative to the S&P Similarly, the EBITDA multiple for the broader energy sector is 500 is one standard deviation below its long-term average trading near its record discount to t
Slide 41: M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value
M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value Aggregate deal value up despite fewer transactions, • Ongoing supply challenges mean it remains cheaper to buy than build highlighting large M&A appetite and sector concentration • Increasingly strategic nature of assets creates more competitive lan
Slide 42: Key Ideas
For personal use only Key Ideas 41 August 2025
Slide 43: Albermarle Corporation (ALB US)
Albermarle Corporation (ALB US) Sector Battery Metals China Lithium Carbonate vs Spodumene Concentrate Position Type Fundamental Spot prices For personal use only Rmb/t US$/t Theme Critical Minerals 120,000 1200 Industrial-grade lithium carbonate • Premier global lithium play Battery-grade lithium c
Slide 44: Energy Fuels (UUUU US)
Energy Fuels (UUUU US) Sector Uranium A Key Beneficiary of the US Critical Minerals Push Position Type Fundamental Share price (US$/sh) For personal use only Theme Critical Minerals 11 On 10 July, the US Government and MP Materials, a • The go to name for US critical minerals 10 peer of UUUU, entere
Slide 45: Alpha HPA (A4N AU)
Alpha HPA (A4N AU) Sector Battery Metals Significant valuation upside post ramp Position Type Fundamental Equity valuation waterfall (A$m) For personal use only Theme Critical Minerals 2,500 117 2,336 81 196 2,219 (50) • Market leading high-purity alumina (HPA) player 362 2,000 • Aiming to supply pr
Slide 46: Argyle Diamonds
Argyle Diamonds Sector Diamonds Argyles Have Outperformed Other Hard Assets Physically Position Type Fundamental Performance (rebased to 100) Held Assets For personal use only 1,000 Theme Scarcity Value Gold ETF 900 • TGF owns a portfolio of Argyle Diamonds, representing ~7% of Precious 800 the Comp
Slide 47: Argyle Diamonds
Argyle Diamonds Sector Diamonds Recent observable sales show very strong pricing Physically Position Type Fundamental Argyle Diamond tender and auction headlines Held Assets For personal use only Theme Scarcity Value • Over the past 25 years, most hard asset classes have increased in value 3-5 times
Slide 48: 6K Additive (Private)
6K Additive (Private) Sector Battery Metals Peers paint an attractive valuation picture Position Type Special Situations Company comparison For personal use only Theme Critical Minerals Market cap NA 2,100 300 325 • US-based global leader in sustainable metal powders & alloys (A$m)1 • Produces titan
Slide 49: An Opportune Time To Be Adding Exposure
An Opportune Time To Be Adding Exposure For personal use only • Market Structure Is Improving: o The US push for energy and defence security is driving a critical minerals bull market that TGF is well positioned to capitalise on. Further, China’s “Anti-Involution” policies and mega-infrastructure sh
Slide 50: Appendix
For personal use only Appendix 49 August 2025
Slide 51: Appendix: Strategy Features
Appendix: Strategy Features Actively Managed Constrained Leverage • Actively managed, specialized long short • Low gross positioning to achieve For personal use only strategy Variable Net <200% Gross superior risk adjusted returns with Exposure Exposure low correlation to major asset classes High Co
Slide 52: Appendix: Investment Universe
Appendix: Investment Universe A flexible approach enables allocation to sectors presenting the best risk-reward opportunities. Clean Energy & Transition Fuels Metals & Mining Soft Commodities For personal use only Oil & Gas Base Metals Crops Uranium Bulks Agriculture Hydrogen Specialty Metals Aquacu
Slide 53: Appendix: Investment Process
Appendix: Investment Process Investment Process Commodity Ranking Macro Overlay Fundamental Research Investment Idea Generation Implementation For personal use only • Global commodity demand and • Analysis of investor positioning • Sector and stock specific • Investments expressed based • High convi
Slide 54: Appendix: Sources of Alpha
Appendix: Sources of Alpha • Flexibility within the mandate to take advantage of different types of trades across the natural resources complex, depending on best risk- reward and market environment. For personal use only • Weighting of different types of trades will vary depending on prevailing mar
Slide 55: Appendix: Key Personnel
Appendix: Key Personnel Ben Cleary Investment Team Portfolio Manager Ben is the Portfolio For personal use only Manager for the Tribeca Global Natural Resources Fund. He is the Investment Manager of Todd Warren Michael Orphanides Guy Keller Jack Gallagher Ted Coupland ASX-listed Tribeca Global Partn
Slide 56: Investor Relations
For personal use only Investor Relations Email: TGFinvestors@tribecaip.com.au Web: www.tribecaip.com/lic Sydney Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd Level 23, 1 O’Connell Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 9640 2600 Singapore Tribeca Investment Partners Pte Ltd Level 16 Singapore Land Tower 50 Raffles