Msci Inc. · NYSE:MSCI
Msci — Investor Presentation (July 2025)
40 slides from Msci's investor presentation, Jul 16, 2025
Slide 1: 2Q25 Carbon Credit Markets in Review – CORSIA Phase I Review and Outlook
2Q25 Carbon Credit Markets in Review – CORSIA Phase I Review and Outlook July 16, 2025 Webinar © 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Slide 2: Introduction
Introduction → All attendees are automatically muted throughout the session → Questions – please type your questions in the Q&A window at the bottom of your screen → Please take advantage of the available additional resources → Screen recordings and/or AI transcribers are not permitted during this w
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda → 01 Market update in 2Q25 • Introduction / updates • Corporate use of credits • Supply and demand, surplus • Pricing • Ratings • Policy → 02 Audience poll → 03 CORSIA Phase I Review and Outlook Keynote presentation by Faris Pleho, Head of Aviation Carbon Markets from MSCI Carbon Markets CORS
Slide 4: Product enhancements in the last quarter
Product enhancements in the last quarter Refreshed Article 6 credit > 200 new pre- 13 new price Updated platform on ratings registration indexes market outlook MSCI One project ratings reports Evaluate country Developed with Enhanced and project risks to Not including 292 MSCI Index to DACs & cookst
Slide 5: Market update 2Q 2025
1. Market update Market update 2Q 2025 5
Slide 6: Quarterly credit retirements
Credit retirements by project type (MtCO2e) Quarterly credit 70 retirements Carbon Engineering Fuel Switch Non-CO2 Gases Energy Efficiency 64 61 60 Renewable Energy REDD+ 55 56 Nature Restoration Jurisdictional REDD+ 51 48 49 → Retirements in H1-2025 50 were up 7.5%(6.9 Mt) 43 43 42 compared to the
Slide 7: Top 10 Known Retirees 2Q25
Top 10 Known Disclosed credits retired by Corporates (ktCO2e) Retirees 2Q25 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 → The top ten retirees this quarter made up 13% of all retirements → 4 of the top 10 retirees last quarter were fossil fuel companies → Banco BV is the 4th largest retiree this year to date. Eni
Slide 8: Yearly Retirements by Buyer Region
Yearly Retirements by Buyer Region Yearly Retirements by buyer region (%) 100% North America 90% 18% 24% 22% 23% 33% 32% Sub-Saharan 36% 80% 39% 38% Africa 70% 10% 11% 22% South Asia 15% 6% 8% 60% 12% Middle East & 10% 14% North Africa 50% Latin America 51% 49% 40% 41% & the 46% 33% 45% 47% Caribbea
Slide 9: Yearly Retirements by Buyer Region
Yearly Retirements by Buyer Region Yearly Retirements by buyer region (%) 100% North America 90% 18% 24% 22% 23% 33% 32% Sub-Saharan 36% 80% 39% 38% Africa 70% 10% 11% 22% South Asia 15% 6% 8% 60% 12% Middle East & 10% 14% North Africa 50% Latin America 51% 49% 40% 41% & the 46% 45% 47% Caribbean 33
Slide 10: Yearly Retirements in North America
Yearly Retirements in North America North American Buyer Region (%) 100% 2% 3% 3% 8% 6% 8% 6% 15% 13% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 98% 97% 97% 92% 92% 92% 93% 85% 87% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 US Canada Mexico Bermuda Source: MSCI Carbon Markets analysis of disclosed ret
Slide 11: Number of long-term corporate climate commitments
Number of long-term corporate climate commitments Cumulative emissions covered by Cumulative emissions covered by net 787 firms made/enhanced SBTi near-term commitments (Gt) zero commitments (Gt) commitments in 2Q25. ~1.4 GtCO2e of emissions 20 19 Gt 12 10 Gt 10 15 8 16 Gt 10 Targets Set 6 8 Gt Vali
Slide 12: Quarterly credit issuances
Quarterly credit Credit issuances by project type (MtCO2e) issuances 160 145 Carbon Engineering Non-CO2 Gases Fuel Switch Energy Efficiency 140 Renewable Energy REDD+ Nature Restoration Jurisdictional REDD+ → Highest quarterly 120 volume of issuances 108 for Non-CO2 Gases on 100 93 record; lowest 91
Slide 13: Demand, supply and surplus by project type
Demand, supply and surplus by project type Renewable Energy (MtCO2e) Non-CO2 Gases (MtCO2e) Energy Efficiency (MtCO2e) 20400 200 180 18 160 16 160 140 300 14 120 12 100 120 10 80 200 8 60 80 6 40 4100 20 40 2 0 0 02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 Issued Retired Cum. Surplus Issued
Slide 14: Demand, supply and surplus by project type
Demand, supply and surplus by project type Carbon Engineering Nature Restoration REDD+ Fuel Switch (MtCO2e) (MtCO2e) (MtCO2e) (MtCO2e) 24 120 300 20 60 20 100 250 50 16 16 80 200 40 12 12 60 150 30 8 8 40 100 20 4 4 20 50 10 0 0 0 0 Issued Retired Cum. Surplus Issued Retired Cum. Surplus Issued Reti
Slide 15: Surplus forecasts by rating
Surplus forecasts Annual cumulative surplus by project type (MtCO2e) by rating 4,000 Non-CO2 Gases Carbon Engineering Low demand, Fuel Switch Energy Efficiency all credits 3,500 Renewable Energy REDD+ → Under high demand, Nature Restoration Jurisdictional REDD+ we expect the surplus 3,000 of high qu
Slide 16: Prices increase for higher-rated projects
Prices increase MSCI Carbon Credit Price Index (USD/tCO2e) for higher-rated $8 projects $7 $6 → Whole Market averaged $3.3 $5 in 2Q25, from $3.9 in 1Q25 → Credits from higher-rated $4 projects averaged $6.4 in 2Q25, up from $5.8 in 1Q25 $3 → Credits from lower-rated $2 projects averaged $1.6 in 2Q25
Slide 17: Nature-based removal prices at record high
Nature-based MSCI Carbon Credit Price Index (USD/tCO2e) removal prices at $25 record high $20 → Afforestation / Reforestation / Revegetation averaged $19.8 $15 in 1Q25 up from $17.5 in 1Q25 → Index reached $21.7 in late $10 June, its highest recorded level → REDD+ prices were flat at $5 $4.5 average
Slide 18: Tracking NBS offtake deals
Tracking NBS offtake deals → 15 public deals in 1H25, up from 11 in 2H24 → Number of non-public deals reported to MSCI increasing → Microsoft dominates at over 36 million tonnes contracted in 1H25 → Pay-on-delivery most common structure Size of publicly reported NBS offtakes, including Number of NBS
Slide 19: Demand for higher integrity credits increasing
Annual carbon credit retirements by MSCI Carbon Projects Rating (%) Demand for 100% higher integrity 90% credits increasing 80% 70% share of AAA retirements rated 2x 60% AA A or higher A 50% from 7% in 2022 BBB to 15% in 1H 2025 BB 40% B of credits retired 30% CCC in 1H 2025 were 35% rated B or CCC
Slide 20: Increase in ratings coverage
Increase in ratings coverage Increase in number of projects with carbon project ratings Preliminary integrity assessment of newer carbon engineering project types 4500 14 43 REDD+ 1 J-REDD+ 4000 12 → Carbon Project Ratings for 3500 >4,400 projects 10 3000 → Preliminary Integrity Assessments for >160
Slide 21: Trends in Policy and Guidance in the last Quarter
Trends in Policy and Guidance in the last Quarter European Commission proposes Global development of compliance and Article 6 cooperation continues to grow, EU 2040 climate target, including the voluntary markets – the multipolar world new countries entering the market use of carbon trading1 ASEAN r
Slide 22: Major EU policy developments leading to more questions than answers
Major EU policy developments leading to more questions than answers European Commission Leading Uncertain Future for the European Commission releases proposed EU 2040 Target4 Drive to ‘simplify’ regulations1 Green Claims Directive2 → Proposed amendments to: → Proposal was not withdrawn, → Proposes u
Slide 23: Demand projections for Article 6 Credits
Major EU policy developments leading to more questions than answers Demand projections for Article 6 Credits (Mt) 700 +28 Mt 600 +28 Mt +28 Mt European Commission releases proposed EU 2040 Target1 +28 Mt +28 Mt 500 Credit Demand (Mt) 400 → Proposes use of international credits for up to 3% of 1990s
Slide 24: Carbon markets on the rise in ASEAN
Carbon markets on ASEAN Common Carbon Framework eyes a 4Q25 pilot for a regional carbon market.1 the rise in ASEAN Vietnam plans to join CORSIA in 2026.2 It commenced its domestic ETS pilot Jun- 25, covering steel, cement and thermal power with an offset ratio of up to 30%.3 Thailand is reportedly e
Slide 25: Article 6 cooperation ramping up, oversight of integrity remains key
Article 6 cooperation ramping up, oversight of integrity remains key 1. Negotiations are moving forward 2. Countries increasing readiness 3. International oversight of Article to engage in Article 6 trading 6.2 is limited Article 6 Readiness by Country ‘Seller’ Countries 53 + 24 vs 1 year ago 50% 40
Slide 26: Audience poll: CORSIA-eligible credit price at end of Phase I
Audience poll What will be the price of CORSIA-eligible carbon credits at the end of Phase I? Information Classification: GENERAL 26
Slide 27: CORSIA Phase I Review and Outlook
2 CORSIA Phase I Review and Outlook CORSIA Phase I Review and Outlook 27
Slide 28: What is CORSIA?
What is CORSIA? Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation Emissions International Aviation (CORSIA) (Illustrative) → Airlines must address emissions exceeding 85% of Aircraft Technology their 2019 levels starting in 2024. Operational Efficiency Sustainable Aviation Fuel → Thi
Slide 29: CORSIA scenarios model - methodology overview
CORSIA scenarios model - methodology overview CORSIA-eligible demand volume 1. Eligible emissions 2. Emissions projection 3. Calculation of determined based on offsetting requirements participating countries Tech Ops SAF Marginal cost of meeting Corresponding CORSIA price CORSIA demand Adjustment pr
Slide 30: Projected demand for CORSIA credits in Phase I (2024 – 2026)
Projected demand for CORSIA credits in Phase I (2024 – 2026) CORSIA offsetting requirement (MtCO2e) CORSIA offsetting requirements 180 are driven by: 163 160 144 Aviation industry factors: 140 → Aviation traffic growth 120 111 → Technology adoption and fleet renewal → Operational efficiency improvem
Slide 31: Airlines with the largest demand for CORSIA credits
Airlines with the largest demand for CORSIA credits Large airlines with extensive international route networks, but limited domestic routes, will likely be the largest purchasers of CORSIA credits. Relative Airline1 CORSIA Credit Demand for Phase I and Phase II for High Scenario Emirates Airlines Un
Slide 32: CORSIA supply-demand gap for combined scenarios
CORSIA supply-demand gap for combined scenarios Projected CORSIA Phase I supply-demand gap (MtCO2e) Tight supply Loose supply 20 +15 During Phase I 10 0 There is a potential supply shortage in 5 out of 6 -10 scenarios between -12 -20 -18 -12 to -64 Mt -30 In just 1 scenario -40 -37 there is supply -
Slide 33: Potential CORSIA cost of compliance
Potential CORSIA cost of compliance CORSIA-eligible credit prices range from USD 26 – 63/t in Phase I (2024-26) and up to USD 124/t in compliance period 4 (2033-35). CORSIA-eligible credit prices for Phase I Projected cumulative compliance cost for CORSIA (USD bn, 2025 prices), by Phase (USD/tCO2e,
Slide 34: Key issues facing CORSIA
Key issues facing CORSIA →Enforcement signals remain weak - UK is consulting on a £100/t penalty, but broader enforcement mechanisms are still limited. →Article 6 readiness improving, but slowly - More countries are building their Article 6 capacity to authorise credit use for CORSIA, yet institutio
Slide 35: CORSIA expert panel
CORSIA expert panel Please type your questions in the Q&A box at the bottom of your window Yue Huang Will Gifford Faris Pleho Assistant Director of Policy Manager, Aviation and Vice President, Head of Aviation Climate Policy NCS Lead MSCI Carbon Markets 35
Slide 36: Thank you
Thank you Please follow us on LinkedIn (MSCI Carbon Markets) or sign up to our newsletter to hear about our future webinars. Contact → carbonmarkets@msci.com © 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Slide 37: MSCI Carbon Markets Investor-Grade Data and Insights
MSCI Carbon Markets Investor-Grade Data and Insights Interactive Weekly / Research notes Ppt / Excel Direct data Access platform monthly reports and webinars downloads feeds (/APIs) to analysts Carbon credit projects Policy & guidance & transactions Carbon credit prices • Analysis and consensus trac
Slide 38: Contact
Americas Asia Pacific Europe, Middle Contact East & Africa The process for submitting a formal index United States China South Africa complaint can be found on the index +1 888 588 4567 (toll free) North: 10800 852 1032 (toll free) + 27 21 673 0103 South: 10800 152 1032 (toll free) page of MSCI’s we
Slide 39: About Us: ESG
About Us: ESG About MSCI ESG Research Products and Services MSCI ESG Research products and services are provided by MSCI ESG Research LLC, and are designed to provide in-depth research, ratings and analysis of environmental, social and governance-related business practices to companies worldwide. ES
Slide 40: Notice and Disclaimer
Notice and Disclaimer This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts securities underlying the index or Index Linked Investments. The imposition of these fees and charges would cause the (collectively, the “Information”) is the p