Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated · NYSE:PEG
Public Service Enterprise — UBS Investor Meetings, Boston (June 2008)
63 slides from Public Service Enterprise's conference presentation, Jun 18, 2008
Slide 1: Public Service Enterprise Group UBS Investor Meetings
Exhibit 99 Public Service Enterprise Group UBS Investor Meetings Boston, MA June 18, 2008
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statement
Forward-Looking Statement Readers are cautioned that statements contained in this presentation about our and our subsidiaries’ future performance, including future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all other statements that are not purely historical, are forward-looking statements for pu
Slide 3: GAAP Disclaimer
GAAP Disclaimer PSEG presents Operating Earnings in addition to its Net Income reported in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). Operating Earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure that differs from Net Income because it excludes the impact of the sale
Slide 4: PSEG Overview
PSEG Overview Tom O’Flynn Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - PSEG President and Chief Operating Officer – PSEG Energy Holdings
Slide 5: Our platform …
Our platform … Redeployment of capital Major electric generation Stable electric and gas distribution and through the sale of company with 13,300 international assets. MW* of base-load, transmission company Focused on managing intermediate and load rated top quartile for lease portfolio and followin
Slide 6: Our focus is to maximize benefits from existing assets
Our focus is to maximize benefits from existing assets … Operational Regulatory and Growth with Excellence Market Environment Manageable Risk Maintain strong Regulatory Processes embedded balance sheet mechanisms in place throughout the providing supporting best-in- organization on how opportunity t
Slide 7: Major influences on business environment remain
Major influences on business environment remain: Infrastructure Climate Change Capacity Needs Requirements Capital investment in PSEG Power’s base- Significant new coal fleet to meet load nuclear assets environmental transmission capital well situated in carbon program to improve requirements constr
Slide 8: Continuing to improve operational practices and participate in market design
We are continuing to improve operational practices and participate in market design discussions … Fossil fleet adopted operating model based on Operational Nuclear’s success Excellence Goal is to maintain (at a minimum) operating capability of nuclear fleet at 90% capacity factor PSE&G pursuing inve
Slide 9: Improved processes and investment …
Improved processes and investment … 2007 -2011 : $2,400 CAGR: 2.1% $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 … are expected to control the rate of growth in operating expenses. 9
Slide 10: Spending for the next four years …
Spending for the next four years … $10.0 Capital Expenditures $8.0 $ 7.3B $6.0 $ 4.5B $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 2007 Forecast* 2008 Forecast** (2008 – 2011) (2008 – 2011) PSEG Power PSE&G PSEG Energy Other Holdings … has increased primarily at PSE&G to support growth strategy. * As per 2006 10-K ** As per 2007
Slide 11: Right set of assets, right markets at the right time
Right set of assets, right markets at the right time … Low-cost portfolio Fuel Diversity – 2007 Total MW: 13,300 Strong cash generator Oil Nuclear 8% Regional focus in competitive, 26 % Pumped liquid markets Storage 47 % 18% 1% Assets favorably located Coal Gas Many units east of PJM constraints Sou
Slide 12: PSEG Power's capital program
PSEG Power’s capital program 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 10-K $584 $626 $516 $527 $198 ($ millions) 2007 10-K $562 $890 $675 $620 $430 ($ millions) Program focused on meeting environmental commitments, capital associated with new capacity ($500M)* and exploring the opportunity for new nuclear to i
Slide 13: At Power, strong cash generation and declining capital expenditures
At Power, strong cash generation and declining capital expenditures … Power Cash Flow Power Sources and Uses Net Cash (2008 – 2011 Forecast) $2.0 Asset Cash Flow Sales from Ops Incremental debt $10.0 Net capacity while maintaining target Dividends Financing credit measures to Parent $1.0 $8.0 $0.0 $
Slide 14: Power's open EBITDA is approximately $2.6 - $2.8 billion
Power’s open EBITDA is approximately $2.6 - $2.8 billion … $3.0 EBITDA Assumption Sensitivity Impact $2.5 Capacity ~ $60 - $65/KW-yr $10/KW-yr ~ $120M (~ $165 - $178/MW-day) ~ $69 - 73/MWh Energy $1/MWh ~ $40M (PJM-West) $2.0 Fuel Gas ~$8.50 to $9.00/MB Coal ~ $2.85 to $3.15/MB O&M ~ $1.0 – 1.05B $1
Slide 15: PSE&G operates in an attractive market
PSE&G operates in an attractive market … NJ is ranked 3rd nationally in personal income per capita Mid-Atlantic ReliabilityOne Award winner six years running Solid regulatory relationships on traditional utility matters Transmission Statistics (12/31/07) Network Circuit Historical Annual Load Growth
Slide 16: PSE&G's capital program focused on improving reliability
PSE&G’s capital program focused on improving reliability 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 10-K 5-year capital program: $3.0B June 2007 10-Q 5-year capital program: $4.1B 2007 10-K 5-year capital program: $5.3B PSE&G Rate Base ($ millions) 2007 Actual 2012 Base Plan Transmission 830 2,240 Gas 2,240
Slide 17: PSE&G's capital program
PSE&G’s capital program Rate base growth supported by investment in new 500kV lines to improve reliability ($900M) and upgrade of sub- Transmission transmission system ($250M) Received FERC approval for CWIP in rate base and 125 bps adder to ROE on $600M - $650M Susquehanna line – base ROE increased
Slide 18: At PSE&G, cash flow directed towards reinvestment opportunities
At PSE&G, cash flow will be primarily directed towards attractive reinvestment opportunities. PSE&G Cash Flow PSE&G Sources and Uses $1.5 (2008 – 2011 Forecast) Cash from Ops $6.0 Net Cash Dividends Flow Net to Parent Financing $0.5 $4.0 Cash from ($0.5) Ops Investments $2.0 Growing Investments ($1.
Slide 19: Holdings' portfolio has a diverse asset base
Holdings’ portfolio has a diverse asset base . . . Two businesses focused on maximizing value of existing investments $45M - $60M projected 2008 operating earnings contribution ~ 55% of earnings from Resources ~ 45% of earnings from Global, targeting no international exposure by 2009 2007 Operating
Slide 20: Leveraged leases under challenge by IRS
Leveraged leases under challenge by IRS PSEG’s Energy Holdings’ Resources Subsidiary has $1.5 billion invested in LILO / SILO type lease transactions Have been in discussions with the Office of Appeals of the IRS Recorded $904 million in deferred taxes through March 31, 2008 related to these transac
Slide 21: At Holdings, asset sales could continue to be a significant source of cash
At Holdings, asset sales could continue to be a significant source of cash in 2008. Holdings Sources and Uses* (2008 – 2011 Forecast) $1.2 Net Financing Dividends to $0.9 Parent Asset Sales $0.6 Investments* Cash from Ops $0.3 $0.0 Sources Uses Flexibility exists to finance potential Resources’ tax
Slide 22: At PSEG, we forecast $3.0B of discretionary cash
At PSEG, we forecast $3.0B of discretionary cash through 2011. Parent Sources and Uses (2008 – 2011 Forecast) $6.0 Holdings Dividend PSE&G Dividend $3.0B Discretionary Cash* $4.0 Power Dividend $2.0 Shareholder Dividend $0.0 Sources Uses Cash flow from Power is the primary driver of discretionary ca
Slide 23: Improved processes, markets and well-positioned assets
Improved processes, markets and well-positioned assets … Operating Earnings by Subsidiary 8% Growth $2.80 - $3.05 $2.71* 45 - 60 115 $1.73* 1,040 - 1,140 Holdings 161 949 Power 515 376 350 - 370 PSE&G 262 (66) (63) (15) - (10) Parent 2006 2007 2008 … allowed us to meet our commitments to earnings gr
Slide 24: Markets, assets and use of cash flow
Markets, assets and use of cash flow … + 8 - 9% + 8 - 9% $3.05 - $3.35 $2.80 - $3.05 $2.71 $1.73 2006 Operating 2007 Operating 2008 2009 2010E 2011E Earnings* Earnings* Guidance Guidance … should continue to drive annual earnings guidance growth of 8 - 9%. 24 * See page 63 for Items excluded from Ne
Slide 25: Redeploying our $3.0B of discretionary cash
Redeploying our $3.0B of discretionary cash towards additional growth and / or share repurchases … +8 – 9% Annual Growth Discretionary Cash Annual Growth ~ ~ 3% $2.80 - $3.05 Holdings 45- 60 6– 8% PSE&G 350- 370 Subsidiary 5– 7% Annual Growth 5– 7% Power 1040- 1140 Parent (15)– (10) 2008 2009 2010 2
Slide 26: Recent 10% dividend increase continues 100-year history
Our recent 10% dividend increase continues 100-year history of paying common dividends. $1.50 ? $1.29 * $1.25 $1.17 $1.14 $1.12 $1.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E Payout Ratio 63% 66% 43% 44% 40 – 50% Payout objective of 40 – 50% provides opportunity for growth with earnings. 26 * Indicated annual divi
Slide 27: PSEG's current stock price…
PSEG’s current stock price… PSE&G Energy Holdings 2008 Earnings Guidance $350M - $370M Indicative 2008 P/E Multiple 13.5x – 14.0x Book Equity Value/Share(1) $2.75 Resulting Value/Share $9.00 - $10.25/Share PSEG Power Stock Price as of 6/12//08 (per share) $46.14 Less Indicative Value of PSE&G, Energ
Slide 28: Fitting the pieces together - PSEG value proposition
Fitting the pieces together - PSEG value proposition PSEG well-positioned in current business environment Process improvement programs support efforts to: - maintain reliability - control costs - provide value to the customer Asset mix provides opportunities in attractive markets Strengthened balanc
Slide 29: APPENDIX
APPENDIX
Slide 30: PSEG Power
PSEG Power
Slide 31: Power's assets along the dispatch curve
Power’s assets along the dispatch curve … Nuclear National Park Coal Sewaren 6 Mercer 3 Combined Cycle Kearny 10-11 Steam Burlington 8-9-11 GT Peaking Edison 1-2-3 Essex 10-11-12 New Bergen 1 Haven Linden 5-8 / Essex 9 Burlington 12 / Kearny 12 Linden 1,2 Keystone Yards Sewaren 1-4 Peach Conemaugh B
Slide 32: We have completed some major 2008 initiatives
We have completed some major 2008 initiatives … Hope Creek Uprate Salem Steam Generator Outage NRC approved Hope Creek’s Unit 2 outage concluded extended power uprate within 58 days – on time license amendment in May 15 MW uprate (PS share) 2008 available for 2008 summer 125 MW uprate available for
Slide 33: Fossil operations contribute to earnings
Fossil operations contribute to earnings … Total Fossil Output A Diverse 9,800 MW Fleet (MW) (GWh) Coal 2,350 30,000 Combined Cycle 3,150 25,000 Steam / Peaking 4,300 Right Assets – Right Location 20,000 Fuel diversity 15,000 ` Technical diversity Near load centers 10,000 Operation of 2,000 MW Texas
Slide 34: Through our ongoing focus on operational excellence
Through our ongoing focus on operational excellence … Total Power Output (GWh) 60,000 A Diverse 13,300 MW Fleet* 50,000 Nuclear 3,500 40,000 Coal 2,350 30,000 Combined Cycle 3,150 20,000 Peaking / Steam 4,300 10,000 Strong Performance 0 Continued growth in output 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Improved fl
Slide 35: Power's eastern coal plants are in the right areas
Power’s eastern coal plants are in the right areas … System Interface Coal Units Capacity (MW) Bridgeport Harbor 3 Hudson 2 558 Mercer 1&2 648 Hudson 2 Bridgeport 372 Mercer 1&2 Total 1,578 Power’s New Jersey coal units are Power is also making considerable mid-merit, with capacity factors investmen
Slide 36: Power market dynamics
Power market dynamics … On-Peak Versus Gas Off-Peak Versus Coal $/MWh $/MB $/MWh $/MB $100 $20 $80 $8 $80 $15 $60 $6 $60 $10 $40 $4 $40 $5 $20 $2 $20 $0 $0 $0 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est Est PJM Western Hub On-Peak Prices Gas $/MB PJM Western Hub Off-Peak Prices Coal $/M
Slide 37: Rising coal and natural gas prices have driven LMPs
Rising coal and natural gas prices have driven LMPs ... Central Appalachian Coal ($/Ton) Natural Gas Henry Hub ($/MMbtu) $110 $11.0 $100 $10.5 $90 $10.0 $80 $9.5 $9.0 $70 $8.5 $60 $8.0 $50 $7.5 $40 $7.0 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Electric PJM Western Hub RTC Price ($/MWh) On Peak Heat Rate Expans
Slide 38: Carbon legislation will address global warming
The implementation of carbon legislation will address the critical issue of global warming … By Fuel Type Coal CTs CC Carbon tons/MWh 1.0 0.6 0.4 PSEG Power Generation by Fuel Price ($/MWh) 2007 Total GWh: 53,200* @$10/ton $10.0 $6.0 $4.0 Nuclear @$20/ton $20.0 $12.0 $8.0 @$30/ton $30.0 $18.0 $12.0
Slide 39: New capacity constructs and repricing at market prices
Through the new capacity constructs, and repricing at market prices … Power’s capacity is located in three Northeast markets. NE NY Total Capacity 13,300MW* (~ 1,000 - 1,500 MW under RMR) PJM The RPM Auction to date has provided strong price signals in PJM. Delivery Year ($MW/Day) Zones 2007 / 2008
Slide 40: Power's fleet diversity and location
Power’s fleet diversity and location ... Market Perspective – BGS Auction Results Increase in Full Requirements Component Due to: Increased Congestion (East/West Basis) Full Requirements Increase in Capacity Markets/RPM $111.50 Volatility in Market Increases Risk Premium $102.51 $98.88 Ancillary ser
Slide 41: Power's hedging program provides near-term stability
Power’s hedging program provides near-term stability from market volatility … Contracted Energy Power has 100% $80 % sold contracted for a 75% (left Price considerable scale) (right percent of its 50% scale) $70 output over the 25% next three years at increasing 0% $60 prices. 2008 2009 2010 2011 Es
Slide 42: While nuclear fuel was volatile during 2007
While nuclear fuel was volatile during 2007 … Historical and Contracted Nuclear Fuel Cost $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Contracted … Power’s hedging strategy has mitigated market price increases, with 100% hedged through 2011. 42
Slide 43: Power has contracts for supply of its coal through 2010
Power has contracts for supply of its coal through 2010 … Coal Output 18,000 12,000 Total Output 6,000 Hedged Coal 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Percent coal hedged as 85-95% 75-85% 55-65% of Feb. 15th, 2008 … and after installation of pollution control equipment, Power anticipates increasing flexibility in
Slide 44: The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) … Cooperative effort by Northeast states to design a regional cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions Full participants – CT, MA, MD, ME, NH, VT, NY, RGGI NJ, RI, and DE States Observers – PA, DC, and Eastern Canadian Provinces and
Slide 45: The RGGI cap shows headroom
The RGGI cap shows headroom … Affected Sources Fossil fired electric generating units with a capacity of 25 megawatts (MW) and larger Targets and Timing Three-year compliance periods with the first running from 2009- 2011 Stabilization of CO2 emissions at recent levels through 2015 (~188 million ton
Slide 46: RGGI's CO2 pricing projections
RGGI’s CO2 pricing projections … $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 RGGI - ICF Base RGGI - ICF Base (Rev. Oct-06) … reflect moderate prices, based on the headroom in the cap. 46
Slide 47: Operational improvements and recontracting in current markets
Operational improvements and recontracting in current markets … Gross Margin ($/MWh)* $60 $40 $20 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Hedged Energy Unhedged Energy Hedged Capacity Unhedged Capacity … are expected to drive continued increases in Power’s gross margin. * As of February 2008 47
Slide 48: PSE&G
PSE&G
Slide 49: PSE&G's base investment plan
PSE&G’s base investment plan … Regulated electric transmission, electric and gas distribution system Characteristics FERC regulation for electric transmission (formula rates) NJ BPU regulation for electric and gas distribution Managing recovery lag on electric and gas distribution investments PSE&G
Slide 50: By 2018, NJ's load is expected to grow by 4,000 MW
By 2018, NJ’s load is expected to grow by 4,000 MW … Projects to NJ Projects to NY 2008-2018 NJ Summer Peak PSEG’s evaluation of Annual Growth Rate = 1.8% The Neptune HVDC project (685 the proposed backbone MW) connecting Sayreville to transmission projects: Long Island Northern 500kV The Linden VFT
Slide 51: Transmission opportunities will require substantial deployment of capital
Transmission opportunities will require substantial deployment of capital. Transmission Growth PJM approval was received for the $600-$650 million Susquehanna to Roseland line in October 2007 Siting and permitting process underway Jefferson Roseland FERC approved Incentive rate filing: Branchburg 12
Slide 52: RGGI enabling legislation signed into law in January
RGGI enabling legislation was signed into law in January 2008. Solar Initiative BPU approved $105 million pilot program to finance installation of PV Solar. Potential PSE&G market up to $1.8 billion assuming 2% Solar RPS through 2020 Section 13 of the RGGI Law permits utilities to invest and/or offe
Slide 53: Even with planned investments, delivery prices ...
Even with our planned investments, delivery prices to customers ... Electricity Gas 2007-2012 Growth = 0.7% 2007-2012 Growth = 1.4% 8.00 Inflation = 2.1% 0.60 Inflation = 2.1% 6.8 0.48 Transmission 0.45 5.5 0.42 5.1 0.40 4.00 Distribution 0.20 0.00 0.00 2007 2012 2007 2007 2012 2007 Regional Regiona
Slide 54: PSEG Energy Holdings
PSEG Energy Holdings
Slide 55: Texas assets are a driver of Global's results
Texas assets are a driver of Global’s results. Two 1,000MW combined cycle facilities Two of the most efficient gas-fired plants in Texas, constructed in 2001 Forced outage rate less than 2% Market Environment: Odessa Bilateral forward market Midland Day ahead balancing and ancillary services bid mar
Slide 56: Due to market uncertainty …
Due to market uncertainty … 100% Texas CCGT Generation Output 80% 2008 Hedged Spark Spread 60% $20-22/MWh 40% 20% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Natural Gas: +/- $7M +/- $11M +/- $14M +/- $16M +/- $1/MMBtu* Heat Rate: +/- $15M +/- $22 M +/- $ 22 M +/- $ 27 M +/- 500 Btu/KWh* Key drivers behind decision to r
Slide 57: As renewable opportunities emerge …
As renewable opportunities emerge … Emerging aggressive RPS National Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) targets in core PSEG markets create an opportunity PSEG is well positioned to participate Familiarity with infrastructure development, asset management, energy policy, project financing and power
Slide 58: Resources is focused on managing its current investment portfolio
Resources is focused on managing its current investment portfolio … 2007 Adoption of FIN 48/FSP 13-2 Changes accounting methodology to record reserves Results in lower lease revenues and higher interest expense totaling approximately $25M (after-tax) per year Cash flows will decrease modestly as the
Slide 59: PSEG Resources – Traditional lease investments
PSEG Resources – Traditional lease investments 2008-2035 Pre-tax Book Investment Lease Country Agreement Property Type Start Residual Cash Flow* as of 4/30/08 Termination ($ million) ($ million) USA Reliant Power Plant Aug-00 2026 & 2034 Y 423 300.2 USA Dynegy Power Plant May-08 2031 & 2035 Y 362.3
Slide 60: PSEG
PSEG
Slide 61: PSEG's generating portfolio is well positioned
PSEG’s generating portfolio is well positioned … PSEG Power PSEG Global PSEG 2007 Total Capacity 2007 Total Owned Capacity 2007 Total US Generation 13,300 MW 2,400 MW 15,700 MW Open Capacity NY CA NE NE Other + = Texas NY Other PJM Texas PJM PSEG Power PSEG Global PSEG 2007 Energy Produced 2007 Ener
Slide 62: PSEG's generation portfolio provides attractive cash
PSEG’s generation portfolio provides attractive cash … Combined fleet represents 15,700 MW of competitive generation Assets are positioned in four attractive merchant markets Growth opportunity available Existing assets positioned for incremental growth Site expansion capability PSEG Generation PSEG
Slide 63: Items Excluded from Net Income to Reconcile to Operating Earnings
Items Excluded from Net Income to Reconcile to Operating Earnings ($ millions) (EPS) Years Ended Dec. 31, Years Ended Dec. 31, 2007 2006 2007 2006 Merger related Costs: PSE&G $ - $ (1) $ - Enterprise - (7) (0.02) Total Merger related Costs $ - $ (8) $ - $ (0.02) Impact of Asset Sales: Loss on Sale o
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