Teekay Corporation Ltd. · NYSE:TK

Teekay — Teekay Shipping — Investor Presentation (January 2004)

17 slides from Teekay's investor presentation, January 2004

  1. Slide 1: Market Outlook 2004

    Market Outlook – 2004 „ January, 2004 www.teekay.com

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements

    Forward Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding tanker charter ra

  3. Slide 3: Market Update

    Market Update „ 2003 – a story of two halves „ Outlook for 2004 – Very Strong Demand „ January TCE Averages (Clarkson) – VLCC – $92,000 per day – Suezmax – $106,000 per day – Aframax – $63,000 per day Teekay Shipping Corporation 3

  4. Slide 4: Quarterly Average TCEs

    Quarterly Average TCEs VLCC Suezmax Aframax 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 US$ per Day 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1q90 1q91 1q92 1q93 1q94 1q95 1q96 1q97 1q98 1q99 1q00 1q01 1q02 1q03 4q03 Source: CRS Teekay Shipping Corporation 4

  5. Slide 5: 2003 – A Story of Two Halves!

    2003 – A Story of Two Halves! Tanker demand growth (4.3%) outweighs supply growth (3%) „ 1st Half – Short Termers – Prestige – Severe winter – Disruption in Venezuela & Nigeria – Iraq War – Japan Nuclear Outage „ 2nd Half – Fundamentals – Economic growth led oil demand growth – oil demand grew by 1.

  6. Slide 6: Tanker Demand 2004

    Tanker Demand 2004 „ Oil Demand – Strong global economic growth over 4% - led by China & US – High oil prices (Brent - $25-27 / barrel) – Global Oil Demand : +1.6%* in 2004 (potential for over 2.0%) • Strong growth in China – under estimated by IEA • Japanese nuclear plants returning but not 100% as

  7. Slide 7: World GDP Growth

    P e rc e n ta g e 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1972 7.0 Teekay Shipping Corporation 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Source: IMF 1990 1992 1994 World GDP Growth 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 7

  8. Slide 8: Year on Year Change in World Oil Demand and Production

    Year on Year Change in World Oil Demand and Production Oil Demand Oil Supply 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Percentage 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: IEA, Analyst Average Teekay Shipping Corporation 8

  9. Slide 9: Annual Growth in Chinese Oil Demand

    Annual Growth in Chinese Oil Demand 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fcst Source : IEA Teekay Shipping Corporation 9

  10. Slide 10: China Net Crude and Product Imports

    China Net Crude and Product Imports Crude Products 2.0 Million Barrels per day 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 YTD Nov.03 Source : Chinese Customs Teekay Shipping Corporation 10

  11. Slide 11: Tanker Demand 2004

    Tanker Demand 2004 „ Oil Supply – Non-OPEC growth estimated at +1.5 mb/d in 2004 (0.9 mb/d in 2003 v IEA forecast of 1.4 mb/d). Increase from FSU, W.Africa, Lat Am & North Am. – OPEC keeps high price policy = loss of market share – Call on OPEC + stock change = 25.5 mb/d (-0.4 mb/d) on 2003 – OPEC N

  12. Slide 12: Tanker Supply

    Tanker Supply Teekay Shipping Corporation 12

  13. Slide 13: Tanker Supply

    Tanker Supply „ Fleet growth restrained in 2003 up 2.9% „ OBOs switched to dry cargo trades in 2003 due strong market – effective decrease of 1% of total fleet „ OBOs still switching to dry – expect another 1% move in 2004 „ IMO regulations come into force April 5, 2005 „ 36 million dwt in mandatory

  14. Slide 14: Tanker Supply

    Tanker Supply „ Yards full for 2006 „ 2007 capacity restricted as yards focus on other ship types „ Strong demand from LNG sector that will occupy tanker berths (Aframax or VLCC) Teekay Shipping Corporation 14

  15. Slide 15: Supply - Outlook

    Tanker Supply - Outlook Deliveries Deletions On Order Net Change 40 30 Million Deadweight 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Clarkson Teekay Shipping Corporation 15

  16. Slide 16: Conclusion

    Conclusion „ Strong tanker market fundamentals for 2004 „ Demand – Several strong positives on demand side of equation – Other short term factors could provide further upside „ Supply – Fleet growth restricted by regulations & charterer discrimination – Scrapping ahead of mandatory phase out due to

  17. Slide 17: Average Aframax Earnings

    Average Aframax Earnings Nominal Linear (Nominal) 40,000 35,000 30,000 US$ per day 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Source: SSY/Clarkson Teekay Shipping Corporation 17

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