Icici Bank Limited · NSE:ICICIBANK
Icici Bank — Investor Presentation (August 2025)
94 slides from Icici Bank's investor presentation, August 2025
Slide 1: Monthly Chartbook
ICiCi Bank Monthly Chartbook
Slide 2: Index
Index Section Page no. Economic Research Group Global Economy 7 Sameer Narang Domestic Economy 25 Shivom Chakravarti Growth 26 Anagha Deodhar Debomitra Sen Consumption 28 Jyoti Sharma Investment 37 Aditya Sharma Ashish Haldar Industry 39 Jayant Gupta Services 47 Anukul Bodile Corporate Sector 51 Rit
Slide 3: Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (1/4)
Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (1/4) Who is bearing the impact of tariffs? Amidst the din of customs revenues which have increased by 94% YoY in FYTD tariffs, the US economy grew by 3% (QoQ Saar) in Q2 after a terms this year (June: USD 27bn). Also, consumer sentiment is rather disapp
Slide 4: Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (2/4)
Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (2/4) have increased by only 3.8% YoY in the last month as against under pressure to do more and thus bring the real rates 4.6% over the last 12-months. Even travel and lodging costs somewhere between 0.5-1% to support growth which implies should come do
Slide 5: Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (3/4)
Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (3/4) (77.7% in Q4FY25) bodes well for uptick in private capacity in FY19 along with pulses and sugar. Even cereal prices creation. While higher US tariffs are a clear negative for increased at a moderate pace of 2.1% in FY19 and over FY16- exports and a
Slide 6: Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (4/4)
Who pays for tariffs: Corporates or Consumers (4/4) RBI on long pause: With inflation picking up from Q4FY26 structural change in growth and inflation mix can make it onwards to above 4% led by reversal of veggie price led move. On the inflation front, the new CPI series is due in early moderation a
Slide 7: Global Economy
ICiCi Bank Global Economy
Slide 8: High frequency indicators confirm that global growth momentum is slowing
High frequency indicators confirm that global growth momentum is slowing PMI manufacturing remained in the contractionary zone …while private demand also appears to be slowing that as trade flows could be slowing in response to tariffs….. is reflected in slowing PMI services data PMI Manufacturing U
Slide 9: Consumer confidence is stabilizing as trade uncertainty has reduced
However, consumer confidence is stabilizing as trade uncertainty has reduced US consumer confidence inched higher on improved EZ consumer confidence improved at the margin as a outlook on business conditions and employment US-EU trade deal was reached US Consumer Confidence EZ Consumer Confidence 14
Slide 10: US GDP rebounded in Q2 2025, although it is unlikely to sustain in 2H2025
US GDP rebounded in Q22025, although it is unlikely to sustain in 2H2025 US economic growth rebounded driven by a drop in imports as underlying demand remained weak US GDP Growth Component (% QoQ saar) H1 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q12025 Q22025 38 9.6 10.7 21.8 6.9 4.4 5.1 3.1 3.0 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.3 2.5 2.4
Slide 11: US: high frequency indicators shows the momentum remains subdued
US: high frequency indicators shows the momentum remains subdued The Fed Atlanta GDP nowcast is starting to decline Spending slowed and savings rate picked up indicating that US momentum is expected to slow indicating that consumption could weaken (% QoQsaar) Fed Atlanta's GDP nowcast (% YoY) Real S
Slide 12: US economy: housing sector remains weak
US economy: housing sector remains weak US housing sales remained weak reflecting a still Builder confidence remains low as concerns about elevated interest rate profile input costs increased (% YoY) Existing Home Sales New Home Sales NAHB Index (%) 52.0 100 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average 7 37.
Slide 13: US: fiscal surplus recorded in June; although deficit is still elevated in FY25
US: fiscal surplus recorded in June; although deficit is still elevated in FY25 Fiscal balance swung to surplus in June because of higher custom duty collections; although on YTD basis remains above the previous year FY24 FY25 (USD bn) FY23 FY24 (%YoY) FYTD24 FYTD25 (% YoY) June June Government Reve
Slide 14: US labour market condition appears to be deteriorating quite sharply
US labour market condition appears to be deteriorating quite sharply Hiring has slowed very sharply over the last three months on a broad basis Change in Non-farm Payrolls breakdown (Major Categories) (in '000) Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Total
Slide 15: US economy: inflation saw an uptick, further upside risks remain in place
US economy: inflation saw an uptick, further upside risks remain in place CPI inflation increased driven by higher food, energy A similar trend can be witnessed on a sequential basis prices and core goods inflation US CPI (% YoY) Weights Jun-24 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 US CPI (% MoM) Weights Jun-
Slide 16: US front loading in imports is visible due to tariff uncertainty
US front loading in imports is visible due to tariff uncertainty Exports remain muted for crude oil, beverages and Mfg goods, chemicals, food products and machinery tobacco, mfg goods, minerals and beverages dominates imports basket, while mineral fuels lagging US exports accelerating to most geogra
Slide 17: China remains less impacted due to diversification to non-US markets
…China remains less impacted due to diversification to non-US markets… Chinese exports remain higher across machinery, China’s imports remain muted across most segments, food, chemicals, and manufactured goods with only machinery, edible oils seeing some pick-up Beverage and Tobacco(0.1) Edible oil
Slide 18: China: GDP growth printed above expectations remaining above 5% in H1 2025
China: GDP growth printed above expectations remaining above 5% in H12025 GDP growth remained strong in Q2 driven primarily by …that was visible in the pick-up in investments as strong government support…. exports slowed after the front-loading in Q12025 Agriculture Industry Services GDP growth Fina
Slide 19: China: However, high frequency indicators show that growth is uneven
China: However, high frequency indicators show that growth is uneven Retail sales decelerated in June 2025, indicating that Industrial production turned around in June 2025, likely private consumption remains weak supported by healthy export growth Industrial production Consumer confidence China Ret
Slide 20: In Euro-zone, prospects seem better reflecting fiscal stimulus plans
In Euro-zone, prospects seem better reflecting fiscal stimulus plans Euro-zone growth held up in 2Q2025 reflecting robust …as industrial production improved at the margin while exports…. retail sales was soft (% YoY 3mma) Industrial Production Retail Sales 15 10 5 3.1 2.1 0 2.3 1.8 -5 -10 Jul-19 Jul
Slide 21: UK economic growth appears to be losing momentum; inflation remains elevated
UK economic growth appears to be losing momentum; inflation remains elevated UK growth momentum has slowed at the margin…. …that is visible in the subdued industrial production and retail sales figures (%YoY ) UK Monthly GDP (% YoY) Industrial Production Retail Sales 1.7 15 1.6 1.4 1.4 10 1.5 1.2 1.
Slide 22: Japan: Private demand is improving, even as inflation remains above 2%
Japan: Private demand is improving, even as inflation remains above the 2% threshold Both Industrial production and retail sales improved at Inflation declined at the margin while core inflation the margin remains persistently above 3% (% YoY) Industrial Production (% YoY) CPI Core CPI Retail Sales
Slide 23: Markets are pricing in divergence in rate cycles for the G-4 economies
Markets are pricing in divergence in rate cycles for the G-4 economies US growth concerns have forced markets to price in …conversely, improving outlook in Eurozone has led to more aggressive easing… a softer easing outlook for the bloc Fed Fund Rate Pricing ECB funds rate pricing Effective Rate Jul
Slide 24: Markets: Weaker Dollar remains in place
Markets: Weaker Dollar remains in place Divergence in yield movements is visible in G-4 German equities have been strong while gold has also economies rallied Change in Yields(in bps) Equity and Commodity Performance (%) 2024 2025 YTD Past Month 2024 2025 YTD Past Month 104 27.2 28.6 23.3 18.821.4 1
Slide 25: Domestic Economy
ICiCi Bank Domestic Economy
Slide 26: Growth
ICiCi Bank Growth
Slide 27: Economic activity index saw a broad-based slowdown
Economic activity index saw a broad-based slowdown ICICI bank economic activity index saw a broad- Industrial activity slowed on the back of lower based slowdown exports and auto production Services index activity slowed due to lower revenue Consumption index fell due to lower NONG imports growth in
Slide 28: Consumption
ICiCi Bank Consumption
Slide 29: Consumption indicators showed a mixed picture
Consumption indicators showed a mixed picture Consumer durables production registered a slight Consumer non-durables recorded seventh pickup in Jun-25 consecutive negative print Electronics imports growth slowed to 9.4% YoY after Non-oil non-gold imports contracted -0.5% YoY a double-digit growth in
Slide 30: PV and 2W sales moderate amidst restrained consumer sentiments
PV and 2W sales moderate amidst restrained consumer sentiments PV wholesales registered a contraction of -7.4% YoY 2W wholesale contracted on the back of increased in June stock inventory PV retail sales picked up sequentially but contracted -0.8% YoY 2W retail sales slowed down at -6.5% YoY in July
Slide 31: Digital transactions volume & value steady supported by wide adoption of UPI
Digital transactions volume & value steady supported by wide adoption of UPI UPI transactions volume and value remained upbeat; IMPS payments volume and value remained robust in value recorded at INR 25.1tn July Index of Current Economic Conditions continued to Index of Consumer Sentiment inched up
Slide 32: All-India unemployment saw a sustained fall
All-India unemployment saw a sustained fall Urban unemployment fell to 7.5% and rural rate fell to Rural LPR improved to 42..2% & Urban LPR rate 6.4% dipped marginally to 40.4% EPFO new payrolls contracted at -11.4% YoY; though improved sequentially to 0.94mn ESIC subscribers recorded at 30.4mn in M
Slide 33: Work demanded under MGNREGA fell sharply due to kharif sowing
Work demanded under MGNREGA fell sharply due to kharif sowing Work demanded under MGNREGA declined by - Rural sentiment index up at 118.6 12.2% YoY in July Agri daily wage rate growth higher at 7.6% YoY vs 5.7% YoY for non-agri Source: CEIC, RBI, ICICI Bank Research 33
Slide 34: Rainfall surplus continues to be in positive territory despite declining surplus
Rainfall surplus continues to be in positive territory despite declining surplus Parts of east and northeast regions and eastern All India rainfall in surplus at 1% above LPA Maharashtra received below normal rainfall Actual Rainfall Normal Rainfall 1000 800 600 400 200 0 All India North West Centra
Slide 35: Higher kharif sowing supported by surplus rainfall
Higher kharif sowing supported by surplus rainfall As per 3rd AE foodgrain production seen at record high of 354MT, up by 6.5% YoY Area sown under kharif crops up by 5.1% YoY Production - Third Advance Estimates (mn tonnes) Crops AY24 AY25 % YoY Wheat 113 118 3.7% Rice 138 149 8.2% Coarse Cereals 57
Slide 36: Food production sustained its upward trajectory
Food production sustained its upward trajectory Fertilizer sales picked up strongly led by strong sowing Agri credit growth momentum slower Rice stocks ~2.8x of the required threshold levels Wheat stocks too higher than required level Source: CEIC, IMD, ICICI Bank Research 36
Slide 37: Investments
ICiCi Bank Investments
Slide 38: Capacity utilization at 48-month high
Capacity utilization at 48-month high Industrial credit grew at 5.5% YoY in June Capacity utilization for Q4FY25 stood at 77.7 Capital goods import contracted by 1.6% YoY in June Capital goods production fell in June to 3.5% YoY Source: MoSPI, CEIC, ICICI Bank Research 38
Slide 39: Industry
ICICI Bank Industry
Slide 40: Weak external demand and excess rainfall led to lower industrial output
Weak external demand and excess rainfall led to lower industrial output PMI manufacturing expanded to 59.1 in June; highest Industrial output at a 10-month low of 1.5% YoY in 16 months 5.5 Industrial Activity 3mma, % YoY PMI Manufacturing 5.4 5.0 59.1 4.9 58.4 58.3 58.1 57.7 2.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 Dec-24 J
Slide 41: Industrial sectors that showed stable or higher output growth
Industrial sectors that showed stable or higher output growth Machinery and equipment witnessed an uptick in output growth Textiles production improved in the month of June Basic Metals 3mma, % YoY Textiles 3mma, % YoY 8.9 9.6 8.0 7.8 8.0 6.8 7.7 7.8 1.0 1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -3.0 Aug-24 Nov-24 Jul-24
Slide 42: Industrial sectors that are not performing well
Industrial sectors that are not performing well Computer and optical products output growth Chemical and chemical products contracted by 3.9% contracted by 1.3% YoY YoY Computer, Electronic & Optical Products Chemicals & Chemical Products 3mma, % YoY 3mma, % YoY 10.6 0.9 10.5 9.4 0.3 1.5 -1.3 -3.3 -
Slide 43: Manufacturing sector output growth at a 3-month high in June
Manufacturing sector output growth at a 3-month high in June Fabricated metal production witnessed an uptick of IIP manufacturing grew 3.9% YoY…. 15.2% YoY IIP: Manufacturing 3mma, % YoY Fabricated Metal 3mma, % YoY 9.1 15.2 11.8 4.3 3.9 8.9 3.4 8.6 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.5 2.2 Jun-24 Jun-25 Apr-25 Jul-24 Se
Slide 44: Mining sector growth plummeted to a 58-month low
Mining sector growth plummeted to a 58-month low Mining production contracted by 8.7% YoY Crude oil production continued to witness contraction IIP: Mining 3mma, % YoY Core: Crude Oil 3mma, % YoY 10.3 -0.7 7.9 -1.2 0.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.6 -2.2 -0.1 -3.0 -8.7 Jun-24 Jun-25 Apr-25 Jul-24 Nov-24 Sep-24 Aug-
Slide 45: Core sector growth improves to 3-month high
Core sector growth improves to 3-month high Core sector production grew at 1.7% YoY on the back Petroleum refinery products output growth at a 5- of steel and cement output growth month high of 3.4% YoY Core Index 3mma, % YoY Core: Petroleum Refinery Products 3mma, % YoY 6.3 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.2
Slide 46: Electricity sector witnessed improvement
Electricity sector witnessed improvement Fertilizers output growth witnessed improvement Electricity demand witnessed an uptick in July Core: Fertilizers 3mma, % YoY 2.4 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 -3.7 -5.9 Jun-24 Jul-24 Jun-25 Aug-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Apr-25 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 May-25 Core sector out
Slide 47: Services
ICICI Bank Services
Slide 48: Service sector growth picked up driven by higher revex
Service sector growth picked up driven by higher revex Stamp duty collection registered growth of 10% YoY Services PMI marginally up Mar-24 Mar-25 Sep-23 Sep-24 May-24 May-25 Jul-23 Nov-23 Jul-25 Jan-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Revenue expenditure grew by 9% YoY in June GST tax mop-up at INR 1.96tn, up
Slide 49: Fuel consumption disrupted in July due to weather events
Fuel consumption disrupted in July due to weather events ATF consumption consumption contracted by 2.3% Petrol sales rose 5.9% and diesel up 2.4% in July YoY Diesel Consumption (% YoY) Petrol consumption (% YoY) ATF Consumption (% YoY) Mar-25 Feb-25 May-25 Dec-24 Sep-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Apr-25 Jul-25 J
Slide 50: Cargo and passenger transport remained resilient
Cargo and passenger transport remained resilient Port cargo traffic up by 5.5% YoY in June Rail freight traffic grew at 2.7% YoY in May Railway Freight Traffic (% YoY) Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 May-23 Jan-24 May-24 May-25 Jul-23 Nov-23 Jul-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Railway passenger traffic still below the
Slide 51: Corporate sector
ICiCi Bank Corporate sector
Slide 52: Early corporate results show a mixed outlook
Early corporate results show a mixed outlook PAT margin for the industrial sector softened due to However, margin for the service sector has improved weak profitability in refinery sector led by IT firms 12 20 19 10 18 17 8 16 15 6 14 13 4 12 11 2 10 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22
Slide 53: Key inflation metrics
ICiCi Bank Key inflation metrics
Slide 54: CPI inflation softened to more than six-year low
CPI inflation softened to more than six-year low CPI printed at 2.1% YoY in May (2.82% in May), led by CPI trimmed means (10% and 20%) both came at softening in food prices 2.9% each Trimmed mean 10% Trimmed mean 20% CPI 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Dec-21 Dec-2
Slide 55: Food inflation moderated led by contraction in veggies, spices and pulses prices
Food inflation moderated led by contraction in veggies, spices and pulses prices Food & beverages inflation plummeted; contraction of …on the back of fall in veggie, spices and pulses -0.2% YoY in June prices CPI Headline CPI: Food & beverages Cereals Oils & Fats 11.5 Vegetables Spices 95 14 Pulses
Slide 56: Core inflation moved to a 21-month high led by surge in gold prices
Core inflation moved to a 21-month high led by surge in gold prices Global oil prices volatile on the back of uncertainties Core inflation inched up to 4.4% YoY in June in the strait of Hormuz Personal care and effects inflation inched higher to 14.8% YoY in June (13.5% YoY in May) Apr-25 May-25 Jun
Slide 57: Services inflation remained steady
Services inflation remained steady Energy inflation remains lower amid softening global Goods inflation and services inflation inches up oil prices Goods inflation Services inflation 20 Energy Brent Oil % YoY (RHS) 120 8.0 100 15 7.0 80 10 8.6 60 6.0 40 5.0 5 -8.0 2.05 20 10.6 4.0 0 0 -30.0 -11.7 -2
Slide 58: MPC's inflation estimates revised lower driven by softening food prices
MPC’s inflation estimates revised lower driven by softening food prices CPI inflation estimates stands at 2.8% in FY26 versus MPC’s revised estimates of 3.1% (3.7% earlier) (% YoY) Headline CPI Core CPI (% YoY) ICICI Bank estimate MPC forecast 9.0 8.0 5.9 6.0 FY26 ICICI: 2.8% RBI: 3.1% 5.1 4.9 7.0 5
Slide 59: Fiscal Position: Centre
ICiCi Bank Fiscal Position: Centre
Slide 60: Revenue receipts lost steam in June
Revenue receipts lost steam in June FY26 Revenue receipts fell to 5.1% YoY in June led by an overall contraction in direct taxes … gross tax revenue decreased by 5.8% YoY in June With non-tax revenue registering a dip of 19.7% YoY Indirect taxes witnessed a moderation of 5.6% YoY in on 12 month roll
Slide 61: Direct tax collections moderated in June, GST picked up sequentially in July
Direct tax collections moderated in June, GST picked up sequentially in July Income tax and corporate tax collections eased in GST and excise duty register a moderation in June June amid weak wages and mixed corporate earnings while customs contracted on 12M trailing basis GST revenues picked up seq
Slide 62: Capex stayed robust as muted revenue widened the fiscal deficit in June
Capex stayed robust as muted revenue widened the fiscal deficit in June Total expenditure accelerated by 12.5% YoY in June… Revenue expenditure almost doubled to 7.1% YoY… Fiscal deficit came in at 5.2% as a result of sluggish …while capex growth surged by 34.7% YoY in June ( 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 re
Slide 63: Government finance: Subdued revenue growth; Centre maintained capex push
Government finance: Subdued revenue growth; Centre maintained capex push Source: CEIC, CGA, ICICI Bank Research Note: GST collections include CGST, UTGST, IGST and compensation cess 63 FYTD26 denotes data from Apr-June
Slide 64: Fiscal Position: States
ICiCi Bank Fiscal Position: States
Slide 65: States' overall tax revenue eased, SOTR grew 4.6% YoY in June
States’ overall tax revenue eased, SOTR grew 4.6% YoY in June Overall tax revenue rose marginally by 0.7% YoY, …resulting in an improved growth of 0.5% YoY in while overall non-tax revenue contracted by 2.2% YoY revenues receipts States’ own revenue receipts moderated to 4.4% YoY in June… …while SOT
Slide 66: Total expenditure continued to rise on the back of higher capex in June
Total expenditure continued to rise on the back of higher capex in June Total expenditure grew by 5.7% YoY in June (3-MMA) With revex growing 4.5% YoY… …and capex sustaining its positive momentum by Fiscal deficit of states increased slightly to ~2.5% of growing 17% YoY in June GSDP Note: The charts
Slide 67: SGST collections showed growth while stamp duty moderated in Q1FY26
SGST collections showed growth while stamp duty moderated in Q1FY26 SGST collections amongst the majority states witnessed …While stamp duty collections grew by 10% YoY in a growth of 11.4% YoY in Q1FY26… the same period Note: The charts are aggregated over 14 states SGST collections are post settle
Slide 68: Monetary
ICiCi Bank Monetary
Slide 69: Credit growth down to single digit growth
Credit growth down to single digit growth Credit growth was slower than deposit growth but Change in deposits at INR 7.7tn in July, INR 21.1tn in slightly faster than last month FY25 Demand deposit slightly slowed to 17.2% YoY, time deposits growth picked up at 9.2% YoY ID ratio low as investments y
Slide 70: Industrial credit picked up slightly
Industrial credit picked up slightly Non-food credit grew by 9.3% YoY while credit to Credit to MSMEs industries was highest at 19.3% YoY, industry was at 5.5% YoY Medium at 13.1% YoY; Large slowed to 0.8% YoY Among capex-related sectors, credit to the Credit offtake to cement sector contracts by 2.
Slide 71: Credit offtake to services was slightly faster in June
Credit offtake to services was slightly faster in June Credit-offtake to services slightly better at 9.0% YoY Credit to real estate grew by 14.9% YoY Vehicle loans growth at 9.6% YoY, faster than last Personal loan growth slightly faster at 12.1% YoY month 71 Source: RBI, ICICI Bank Research
Slide 72: Lending and deposit rates fell after rate cut
Lending and deposit rates fell after rate cut System liquidity as on 8 August, 2025 stood at a Surplus liquidity is keeping the WACR below the surplus of INR 2907.1bn policy rate Change in currency in circulation slips into the red in August Fresh deposit rates down 87bps since Jan 2025 Note: Data f
Slide 73: Yields rose slightly since the June rate cut
Yields rose slightly since the June rate cut CD issuance reported at INR 3.0tn for FYTD26 (FYTD Yields have risen after the June MPC 3.2) RBI forward book stands at USD -60.4bn in June Forward premiums are rising RBI Fx Assets: Forwards and Futures (USD bn) >1Month & >3Months & <1Month >1Year Total
Slide 74: External Sector
ICiCi Bank External Sector
Slide 75: Goods deficit narrowed due to weak imports
Goods deficit narrowed due to weak imports Goods exports were largely flat YoY at USD 35.1bn (- Goods imports fell by 3.7% YoY at USD 53.9bn, driven 0.1% YoY), driven by lower oil exports by lower gold imports and oil imports Exports % YoY 3mma % YoY 140 Imports (% YoY) % YoY 3mma % YoY 110 95 65 50
Slide 76: Exports and imports by major commodities
Exports and imports by major commodities Electronic goods, Drugs & pharma and engineering goods showed higher exports ( USD bn ) Jun-24 May-25 Jun-25 %YoY %MoM FYTD25 FYTD26 %YoY Electronic Goods 2.8 4.6 4.1 46.9 -9.3 8.4 12.4 47.1 Drugs and Pharmaceuticals 2.5 2.5 2.6 5.9 5.7 7.2 7.6 5.2 Engineerin
Slide 77: Exports and imports by major regions
Exports and imports by major regions US exports accelerated by 22% during FY26 so far due to front-loading, followed by China (USD bn) Jun-24 May-25 Jun-25 %YoY %MoM FYTD25 FYTD26 %YoY US 6.7 8.8 8.3 23.5 -6.1 20.9 25.6 22.3 China 1.2 1.6 1.4 17.2 -15.4 3.7 4.4 17.9 Middle east 4.5 4.6 4.0 -12.3 -13
Slide 78: FDI inflows saw a mild improvement, but could soften now
FDI inflows saw a mild improvement, but could soften now Net FDI inflows at USD 3.9bn in FYTD26 vs USD 4bn Gross FDI inflows FYTD26 recorded at USD 15.9bn same period last year 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 FY24 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY25 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY2
Slide 79: FPI inflows across most EMs; but India's FPI flows remain muted
FPI inflows across most EMs; but India’s FPI flows remain muted Net EM FPI inflows stood at USD 27.6bn in June (Debt inflows: USD 18.2bn; Equity inflows: USD 9.4bn) Net FPI inflows remain higher across all the EMs Debt Equity FPI flows: EMs Africa & Middle East Emerging Europe 70 Latin America Emerg
Slide 80: Services exports surplus remained steady
Services exports surplus remained steady Services exports grew 14.5% YoY and 1.2% MoM at Services imports saw a mild pick-up by 1.6% YoY at USD 32.8bn in June USD 17.1bn in May Services: Exports %YoY (RHS) Services: Imports % YoY 40 50 20 70 35 30 30 15 50 25 30 20 10 10 15 10 10 -10 5 5 -10 0 -30 0
Slide 81: BoP outlook muted due to global uncertainties
BoP outlook muted due to global uncertainties India’s CAD to widen due to tariff impact; BoP situation worsens due to FPI outflows FY26 E FY26 E Balance of payments (USD bn) FY20 FY23 FY24 FY25 (Base) (Tariffs) Trade Balance -265 -245 -287 -300 -309 Trade Balance (% of GDP) -7.9 -6.7 -7.3 -7.1 -7.2
Slide 82: INR stayed volatile due to new tariff imposition
INR stayed volatile due to new tariff imposition On a REER basis, INR moved to 100.4 in June vs. 101 INR remains volatile due to new tariff imposition in May NEER REER USD/INR (RHS) 89 110 90 87 105 85 84 100 83 81 95 78 79 90 77 85 72 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25 Oct-22 Oct-23 Aug-24 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23 F
Slide 83: RBI's FX reserves tumbles on back of dollar sales and revaluation
RBI’s FX reserves tumbles on back of dollar sales and revaluation RBI’s FX reserves recorded at USD 688.9bn RBI’s FX reserves fell by USD 9.3bn in the week 750 FX Reserves (USD bn) (LHS) USD/INR (RHS) 88 700 82 650 600 76 550 500 70 May-22 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24 May-23 Feb-24 May-24 May-25 Aug-
Slide 84: Crude Oil
ICiCi Bank Crude Oil
Slide 85: Crude prices surged due to concerns in Strait of Hormuz
Crude prices surged due to concerns in Strait of Hormuz Rig count dropped to 539 while production improved OPEC supply inched up to 27.5mbd to 13.3mbd respectively (mbd) Production Max capacity US production (RHS) Rig count (mbd) 33 31.7 31 1200 13.3 14 29 27.5 1000 13 27 800 12 25 11 600 10 23 400
Slide 86: Calendar spreads improved, reflecting price hike
Calendar spreads improved, reflecting price hike Crude oil calendar spreads inched up marginally Asia refinery margins inched up (USD/bbl) Brent calendar spreads (USD/bbl) Gross refinary margins 45 6 month 12 month 80 Asia Europe US 35 60 35.5 25 40 15 20 5 -5 3.23 0 Feb-23 Feb-24 Feb-25 Aug-22 Apr-
Slide 87: Asset market performance
ICiCi Bank Asset market performance
Slide 88: Energy prices fell while industrial prices rose in YoY terms
Energy prices fell while industrial prices rose in YoY terms; precious metals continue to rise Commodity performance (%) %YoY CYTD% % QoQ % MoM % MTD Aug 8th 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q32024 Q42024 Q12025 Q22025 Jan'25 Feb'25 Mar'25 Apr'25 May'25 Jun'25 Jul'25 Aug'25 % YoY MoM Commodity index -4
Slide 89: DXY has weakened 5% over the last one month
DXY has weakened 5% over the last one month Asset Performance(%) % YoY CYTD% % QoQ % MoM %MTD 8th Aug M 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q32024 Q42024 Q12025 Q22025 Jan'25 Feb'25 Mar'25 Apr'25 May'25 Jun'25 Jul' 25 Aug'25 YoY o Currency (%) DXY 6 9 -2 7 -9 -5 7 -4 -7 0 0 -3 -5 0 -2 3 -2 -5 EUR -8 -5 3 -6 12
Slide 90: Indian equities saw contraction in the month of July
Indian equities saw contraction in the month of July Equity performance (%) % YoY %CYTD % QoQ % MoM % MTD Aug 8th 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q22024 Q32024 Q42024 Q12025 Q22025 Mar'25 Apr'25 May'25 Jun'25 Jul'25 Aug'25 YoY MoM Sensex 16 22 4 19 8 3 7 7 -7 -1 8 6 4 2 3 -3 -1 1 -3 Large 15 25 5 19 1
Slide 91: UK and Mexico reduced their policy rate by 25 basis points
UK and Mexico reduced their policy rate by 25 basis points Current Current CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24 CYTD25 Monthly inflation Policy (change (change (change (change (change Change Countries rate (% YoY) rate (%) in bps) in bps) in bps) in bps) in bps) (bps) US 2.7 4.50 0 425 100 -100 0 0 UK 3.6 4.00 15 32
Slide 92: Thank you
ICICI Bank Thank you
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