32 slides from Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.s's earnings presentation, Aug 12, 2020
Slide 1: Q2 2020 Earnings Presentation
Q2 2020 Earnings Presentation 12 August 2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in und
Slide 3: Turkish Market – 1H 2020 Covid-19 Developments
Turkish Market – 1H 2020 Covid-19 Developments Turkey’s jet fuel consumption took the hardest hit, Tüpraş diesel and gasoline sales have been improving while diesel was relatively resilient since April and reached pre-covid levels in June Domestic Product Demand 5M 2020 vs 5M 2019 Tüpraş Domestic Sa
Slide 4: Q2 2020 Tüpraş Highlights
Q2 2020 Tüpraş Highlights Cracks troughed in Q2 as anticipated Inventory gains began with Brent Volatile differential environment $/bbl price recovery in May continued in Q2 11.2 12.5 1,500 1.8 10 10.1 9.7 Q2 1.7 0 9.8 -1 10.4 5.8 6.4 5.0 4.8 1.7 -2 7.7 7.9 5 -3 0 1.6 4.3 4.8 3.3 -4 3.1 0 2.4 1.5 -5
Slide 5: Market
Market Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 6: Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Between 2016 - 2020
Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Between 2016 - 2020 Gasoline and mid distillate cracks were under pressure in Q2 2020 with drop in demand and rising inventory levels. HSFO crack margins improved on the back of limited supply. 2020 2019 2016-2020 Min - Max Diesel Jet Fuel Refineries switchi
Slide 7: Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl)
Heavy Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Due to the initial OPEC+ disagreement in March, differentials were wider in Q2 compared to Q1. Volatility in differentials continue due to various factors affecting demand and supply dynamics. 2 00 -2 Arab Heavy -4 Basrah Heavy -6 Kirkuk Ural -8 Avera
Slide 8: Operations
Operations Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 9: Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume • We produced 4.9 million tons in Q2 2020 • Capacity utilization for Q2 2020 was 69.5%, mainly due to lower demand. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 8 7.5
Slide 10: Sales in Q2 (Million Tons)
Sales in Q2 (Million Tons) Tüpraş generated 5.3 million tons of sales in Q2 2020. Recovery in sales started with June. Total Sales Domestic Sales of Selected Products Domestic Sales Exports Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline Bitumen 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.1 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 5.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 1
Slide 11: Financials
Financials Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 12: Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl)
Tüpraş Net Margin and Med Complex Margin Comparison ($/bbl) Q2 Margins Tüpraş Net Med Margin 12.3 • The main factors behind decline in Tüpraş net refining margin compared to Q2 2019 were weaker crack margins, lower 7.8 production and negative inventory effect. 5.8 5.2 4.4 • Tüpraş Net Margin outperf
Slide 13: Income Statement (Million TL)
Income Statement (Million TL) EBITDA realized as 477 mn TL in Q2 2020. Q2 Q2 H1 H1 Million TL % % 2020 2019 2020 2019 Net Sales 9,280 23,953 -61% 26,219 44,661 -41% COGS -8,390 -22,282 -62% -26,239 -41,998 -38% Gross Profit 890 1,671 -47% -20 2,662 -101% Operating Expenses -520 -420 -24% -977 -793 -
Slide 14: Q2 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2019-2020)
Q2 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2019-2020) Despite sizeable support from wider differentials, Profit Before Tax declined with weaker crack margins, lower production and lack of inventory gain with respect to Q2 last year. Million TL 12/08/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 14 Earnings P
Slide 15: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights EBITDA (mn TL) Net Income¹ (mn TL) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8,908 3,812 3,713 5,882 1,887 493 1,793 992 1,766 3,396 1,237 3,778 4,039 1,528 738 803 1,457 542 526 1,505 956 -814 581 1,027 186 -2,450 1,542 2,210 331 869 870 867 1,495 79 378 688 1,575 -375 1,033 851 477 -155 335 -2,
Slide 16: Balance Sheet Analysis
Balance Sheet Analysis Net Debt Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) bn TL bn $ In Billion TL In Billion $ TL Hard Currency 15 5 10.8 12.0 12.2 10.1 12 10.6 11.0 4 10.1 8.7 8.4 9 3 6.1 6.2 5.1 6 2 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1 1.1 0.2 0 0 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Ma
Slide 17: FX Exposure Management (30 June 2020)
FX Exposure Management (30 June 2020) Consolidated Hard Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Currency Liabilities Million $ Payables & Other Cash Liabilities 922 682 Receivables & Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX Other Assets ST Financial Loans policies to mitigate currency risks 45 863 • RUP: 195
Slide 18: Outlook for 2020
Outlook for 2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Slide 19: H1 2020 Results
H1 2020 Results Capacity Utilization (%) H1 77.0 77.0 % total capacity 2020 utilization in H1 2020 Refining Margins ($/bbl) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med FY Tüpraş FY Operationals Exp Target H1 FY Target 11.5 mn tons of sales 0.6 and 11.0 mn tons of H1 2020 24 25 production in H
Slide 20: 2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Refinery Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Status Batman Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1 10-12 Completed U-100 Crude Q1 9* Completed U-9200 CCR Q1 3 Completed U-4000 FCC Q4 6 Postponed to 2021 İzmir U-9200 CCR Q4 7 Postponed to 2021 U-9600 Isomerization Q4 8 Postpon
Slide 21: 2020 Expectations
2020 Expectations(*) Med Complex Refining Margin 1.0-2.0 $/bbl • Ural-Brent differential widening compared to 2019 • Weak outlook for jet fuel and gasoline Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 3.0-4.0 $/bbl • Weak outlook for jet fuel and gasoline cracks • Resilient diesel and strong HSFO cracks • ~24 mt prod
Slide 22: Appendix
Appendix 12/08/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 22 Earnings Presentation
Slide 23: Turkish Market, Jan-May 2019/20 (Million Tons)
Turkish Market, Jan-May 2019/20 (Million Tons) Diesel ¹Jet Fuel 10.0 3.0 -6.0% -47.1% 7.5 2.0 5.0 9.29 8.73 1.0 1.86 2.5 0.98 0.0 0.0 2019 2020 2019 2020 Gasoline ²Fuel Oil 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.6 1.0 -13.4% -35.1% 0.4 0.5 0.91 0.79 0.2 0.21 0.14 0.0 0.0 2019 2020 2019 2020 ¹Transit flight consumption i
Slide 24: OPET
OPET Opet has 1,722 fuel stations as of June 2020. Opet Sunpet 1,722 Market Share 1,670 as of May 2020 1,615 1,560 1,504 1,444 1,356 1,393 535 1,279 1,325 463 495 19.41 % 19.06 % 434 431 427 435 410 418 White Black 394 Product Product 1,126 1,152 1,175 1,187 1,009 1,073 885 915 938 966 2011 2012 201
Slide 25: Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q2 (FOB Italy Prices)
Crack Margin Effect on Tüpraş in Q2 (FOB Italy Prices) Product Price ($/ton) Tüpraş 2020 Crack Margin ($/bbl) Product 2020 Q2 2019 Q2 Production Yields 2020 Q2 2019 Q2 LPG 199 431 3.9% -11.5 -30.5 Gasoline 263 644 19.2% 3.3 10.5 Naphtha 201 504 0.5% -6.5 -11.9 Jet Fuel 211 626 9.6% -2.4 10.8 Diesel
Slide 26: Q2 Product Yields
Q2 Product Yields 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 Other Other LPG 1% LPG Bitumen 1% 4% Bitumen 3% 10% 15% Gasoline Kok Gasoline 19% Other Other 2% 20% Kok white Light white Fuel Oil 3% Light 2% Distil. Black Prod. 1% Distil. 10% Black Prod. Fuel Oil 21% Naphtha 22% 25% 3% 22% Naphtha 0% 1% Jet 9.5% Mid. Distil. Mid
Slide 27: H1 Product Yields
H1 Product Yields 2019 H1 2020 H1 LPG Other BitumenOther LPG 4% Bitumen 1% 7% 2% 3% Kok 10% Gasoline Kok Gasoline 2% Other 4% Other 20% 20% Fuel Oil white Light Fuel Oil white 2% Black Prod. 1% Light 12% 2% Distil. Black Prod. 17% Distil. 22% 25% 24% Naphtha Naphtha 1% 1% Jet Mid. Distil. Mid. Disti
Slide 28: Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL) 30.06.2020 31.12.2019 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 27,390 27,919 -529 -2 Cash & C. Equivalents 18,178 10,652 7,526 71 Trade Receivables 1,721 4,788 -3,067 -64 Derivatives 779 304 475 156 Inventories 5,503 9,469 -3,965 -42 Pre-paid expenses 269 237 32 13 Other Curr
Slide 29: Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl)
Tüpraş and Med Margins ($/bbl) Average Margins Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin 9.3 8.1 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.5 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 2017 12M 2018 12M 2019 12M 2019 H1 2020 H1 Gross Inventory Clean Gross Clean NET Net ($/bbl) Med Margin Margin Effect Margin Margin Margin 2020 Q2 6.3 -1.3 7.5 2.2 0.9 -0.6 2020 H1 6.7
Slide 30: Capacity Utilization (%)
Capacity Utilization (%) Q2 Capacity Utilization* 12M Capacity Utilization* Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 117 8 108 105 102 96 4 7 98 96 5 93 5 7 9 7 69 5 109 97 101 101 91 87 91 85 64 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 *Capaci
Slide 31: Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons)
Finished Product and Semi Product Imports (Thousand Tons) Product Imports Intermediate Imports Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2019 288 228 153 140 118 120 93 99 99 58 25 20 - 0 0 HS Diesel ULSD Jet Fuel HVGO ASR F. Oil LSFO Naphtha MTBE 12/08/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential Earnings Presentation www.tu
Slide 32: www.tupras.com.tr
www.tupras.com.tr 12/08/2020 Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 32 Earnings Presentation