Incap Oyj · OMXHEX:ICP1V
Incap Oyj — Investor Day (November 2022)
25 slides from Incap Oyj's investor day presentation, Nov 17, 2022
Slide 1: EMS Europa, deep insights for InCap Corp.
EMS Europa, deep insights for InCap Corp. Helsinki, November 17, 2022 Dieter G. Weiss, Weiss Engineering in4ma Marketresearch & Analyses © Copyright Weiss Engineering 1
Slide 2: Miniaturization, an important driver in the electronics industry
Miniaturization, an important driver in the electronics industry A combination of new technologies with reduced component sizes is changing our world Stereo systems didn‘t need to have this size after the tubes were replaced by transistors, Today the best example of but still had the size to show th
Slide 3: Nomenclature in electronics: Vertical Integration
Nomenclature in electronics Complete System Example of a complete system Complete Device Vertical Integration Modules can contain metal and/or Complete Module plastic parts and several PCBA Main differences are type and size of Printed Circuit Board Assembly components (SMD, axial, radial) and PCBA
Slide 4: The global EMS/ODM Industry
The global EMS/ODM Industry 2022 ~350 ~2200 ~1850 ~7500 ~1000 Global numbers are ~200 about 16,000 EMS/ODM relatively inaccurate as market researchers often ~400 TOP 100 = ~84% of the market ~2500 2.4 Mio. employees take all products of a company rather than Europe has ~9% des Market subtracting bus
Slide 5: Global TOP 30 EMS/ODM from global TOP 100 2022
Rev.: 0, 04.11.2022 Global TOP 30 EMS/ODM from global TOP 100 2022* Top 41 - 50 Top 51 - 100 11. Qisda Top 31 - 40 Global TOP 100 have 12. Sanmina revenues of 13. Lite-on Top 21 - 30 14. Celestica 547 bil. USD 15. Kinpo Top 11 - 20 Hon Hai 16. Plexus USI/Asteelflash (Foxconn ) Foxconn/Hon Hai is 17.
Slide 6: Global Electronics value chain
Global Electronics value chain World Electronics market 45.000 bil. € 100% Trading margin between Stand alone Electronics embedded Electronics, cars, industry, manufacturer and PC, Telecom, Audio,Video medical , air & space, security 1.000 Bil. € end customer 1.200 Bil. € This is, what normally is T
Slide 7: No of EMS in Europe 2022
Rev.: 23, 30.10.2022 No of EMS in Europe 2022 ~ 2.200 EMS in EU 2.179 EMS identified & analysed 35 18 75 *each legal entity is separately counted, those 24 2.179 separate legal entities 8 belong to 1.876 companies. 13 28 6 189 1 In Middle East and North 47 Africa (MENA) there are 81 another 74 EMS i
Slide 8: 31 European EMS/ODM in the global TOP 100 2022
Rev.: 2, 04.11.2022 31 European EMS/ODM in the global TOP 100 2022* 11. Kitron (60) 12. Lacroix (69) Top 26-31 Global TOP 100 have 13. RAFI (70) Zollner (Top 17) revenues of 14. Melecs (72) Top 21 - 25 547 bil. USD 15. Prodrive Technologies (74) 16. Fideltronik (75) 17. TQ-Systems (76) Foxconn/Hon H
Slide 9: No. of EMS/ODM by revenue group in Europe 2022
Rev.: 0, 7.10.2022 No. of EMS/ODM by revenue group in Europe 2022* Mil. Euro 16.000 14.782 6% of EMS companies had a revenue share of 14.000 75.9% of European production,112 companies; 12.000 4 4 companies are new in this group 94% of EMS companies had a revenue share of 24.1% of European production
Slide 10: The Electronics Manufacturing Services Industry is consolidating
Rev.: 1, 26.10.2022 The Electronics Manufacturing Services Industry is consolidating 305 EMS companies in Europe >15 Mil. Euro 2021 accounting for 88,8% of revenues 90% 88,8% 88% 86,3% 86% 85,1% 84,6% 84% 82,3% 82% 80,5% 79,9% 80% 79,1% 79,0% 78% 76% 74% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Slide 11: EMS Production in Europe 2022
Rev.: 1, 31.10.2022 EMS Production in Europe 2022 The ten biggest EMS 1,3% producing countries: 1,1% 1. Germany 2. Czech Republic 1,3% 2,4% 3. Hungary 0,1% 4. France 0,2% 1,2% 0,3% 5. Poland 4,6% 6. Great Britain 2,3% 6,9% 7. Italy 0,8% 17,8% 8. Slovakia 14,6% 0,4% 9. Romania 8,0% 3,5% 10. Austria 2
Slide 12: EMS Production transfer from West to East in Europe
EMS Production transfer from West to East in Europe 26% EST from Enics 24% RO from Celestica This is not a map from WWII 17% EST from F (Eolane) 16% RO from Zollner 14% EST from S (Note, LEAB, Inission) 12% RO from Plexus 4% EST from FIN (InCap) 11% RO from Flex 26% EST from FIN (Scanfil + 7 EMS) 10
Slide 13: The TOP 40 EMS / ODM in Europe 2022
Rev.: 4, 30.10.2022 The TOP 40 EMS / ODM in Europe 2022 Foxconn has a Foxconn Marketshare of 17.7% 26. Elemaster 11. GPV remaining 27. Cordon Electronics 12. Inventec 2129 EMS 34,5% The TOP 10 EMS have 28. Note-EMS 13. Bitron EMS Production 29. Plexus 14. Kitron a Marketshare of 30. BMK 15. IMI Euro
Slide 14: Macro-economic Factors affecting the EMS Industry
Relative Problem- Weight % Marco-economic Factors affecting the EMS Industry 100 90 80 70 60 50 Semiconductor Problems 40 30 20 Labor shortage 10 MLCC Allocation Corona Pandemic 0 1. H. 2018 2.H. 2018 1.H. 2019 2.H. 2019 1.H. 2020 2.H. 2020 1.H. 2021 2.H. 2021 1.H. 2022 2.H. 2022 1.H. 2023 2.H. 2023
Slide 15: Development of EMS revenue change 2014-2021
Development of EMS revenue change - 2014 - 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 90,0% 70,0% 75,0% 75,9% 79,6% 80,6% 75,0% 50,0% 62,6% 74,2% 30,0% Share of companies with revenue growth U +6,2% 13,8% 10,0% -10,0% U +5,2% -30,0% -20,4% -19,4% -25,0% -25,0% -24,1% -50,0% -37,4% U -8,8% -25,8% -
Slide 16: Development of the EMS Industry in DACH during Covid
Development of the EMS Industry in DACH during Covid Revenue changes against the same quarter of the previous year 15,0% 13,1% XL 12,5% 10,0% 8,7% L/M 6,2% 3,6% 6,4% S/XS 5,0% 0,0% 0,0% 3,1% 0,0% -2,3% 3,3% -1,5% 1,2% -4,5% -5,5% -5,0% -7,6% -3,0% -6,0% Revenue groups -10,0% -8,2% -7,8% -7,9% XL = >
Slide 17: Revenue loss due to automotive share 1. H. 2020
Revenue loss due to automotive share 1. H. 2020 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% -5% -7.3% Automotive Share -10% -11.8% -14.8% -15% -20.4% -20% -25% -28.6% Revenue loss -30% F(x) 20-85% = -0,4122x + 0,0276 Revenue share of automotive of <20% were not analysed, as those companies were normally a
Slide 18: Why are the big EMS growing faster than the small EMS?
Why are the big EMS growing faster than the small EMS? • OEMs are realizing the advantage of manufacturing services • Low capital binding, focus on R&D, Sales and Marketing • General trend to transfer full production, not only PCBA • Small EMS do not always have vertical integration • Order values a
Slide 19: What is this talk about a semiconductor crisis?
What is this talk about a semiconductor crisis? • When shipments of semiconductors declined in 2019 by 6% nobody talked about a crisis • Due to the pandemic in 2020, inventories in many companies went down • When the automotive industry ramped up production +9.2% again at the end of 2020, demand for
Slide 20: Development of inventories of EMS 2015-2021
Rev.: 1, 3.11.2022 Development of inventories of EMS 2015 – 2021 44% 43 M Group of Eight plus InCap: 40,2% 40% Scanfil, Katek, Neways, GPV, Kitron, Note, Hanza, Cicor, InCap 36% 38,2% 33 L 32% 32,6% 23 XL 28% 26,2% 25,4% 25,2% 22,6% 25,0% 24% 22,9% 22,2% 25,0% 24,3% 24,7% Group of Eight plus InCap 2
Slide 21: The development of the EMS industry 2022
The development of the EMS industry 2022: • There is a split in fast growing companies (56%) and The real Problem: companies who still did not return to 2019 revenues in • Inventories have increased for the industry. For 2021 the Group of Eight* plus InCap going from • Revenues increased in Western
Slide 22: Average annual growth rates in Electronics 2021-2026
Average annual growth rates in Electronics 2021 - 2026 LED Tech. 23,6% Automotive 13,4% • Current growth forecasts relate to the global market and affect Defence 11,8% both OEM and EMS Smart Home 10,0% • In particular, the war and its effects on the energy supply are Energy Tech. 9,6% reflected in t
Slide 23: The market potential in Europe
The market potential in Europe • In Europe we have an electronic market with a production value of more than 130 billion Euro Imports from Far East will reduce • Europe manufactures about 105 billion Euro OEMs realize EMS advantages • European OEMs produce about 62 Billion Euro EMS have not actively
Slide 24: Turbulence ahead
Turbulence ahead • Despite high growth forecast, there are many risks in the automotive sector (margin, growth, chip supply). • 3C (Consumer, Computer, Communication) remain slow, due to saturated market. • Consumer restraint due to unpredictable future. • Market consolidation in EMS continues. • Ve
Slide 25: EMS / ODM Europe 2013-2021
Rev.: 9, 27.10.2022 EMS / ODM Europe 2013-2021 Mil. Euro and outlook 2022/2023 +4,7% 55.000 +15,5% 52.492 +3,5% - 6,6% 50.120 50.000 +6,9% +3,7% +4,8% 44.817 45.000 +2,8% 43.304 43.412 +9,1% 40.523 41.866 +2,2% 38.653 40.000 37.586 33.708 34.456 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2013