Msci Inc. · NYSE:MSCI
Msci — Investor Presentation (April 2025)
30 slides from Msci's investor presentation, Apr 9, 2025
Slide 1: MSCI South Africa Annual Property Index
MSCI South Africa Annual Property Index December 2024 Presented on 9th April 2025 © 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
Slide 2: MSCI South Africa Annual Index composition and returns
MSCI South Africa Annual Index composition and returns 1995 INDEX INCEPTION DATE 2024 RETURNS (%) 25 NUMBER OF PORTFOLIOS 1 732 NUMBER OF ASSETS All assets 387,7 UNIVERSE CAPITAL VALUE 11,5 61% MSCI COVERAGE 3% Non-operating investments Standing investments 11% 8,2 11,9 6% Retail Office 19% 60% Resi
Slide 3: MSCI Real Estate South African universe contributors
MSCI Real Estate South African universe contributors Unlevered, directly held real estate 4 0 7 B N Information Classification: GENERAL 3
Slide 4: The property investment market is growing again
CRE Investment The property investment market is growing again after recent the slowdown Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 4
Slide 5: Capital expenditure picked-up
CRE Investment Capital expenditure picked-up in 2024 to above the 10YR average Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 5
Slide 6: Commercial property transactions
CRE Investment Commercial property transactions higher in 2024 than pervious years SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTMENT PROPERTY DEAL VOLUME (ZAR) Source: MSCI RCA Information Classification: GENERAL 6
Slide 7: Total Return of direct, ungeared property tracks GDP growth
CRE Investment Total Return of direct, ungeared property investment tracks GDP growth Source: MSCI, Absa Information Classification: GENERAL 7
Slide 8: South Africa recorded the highest total return globally
CRE Investment South Africa recorded the highest total return globally in 2024 Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL
Slide 9: Total Return at 11.9% is the highest since 2015
South Africa Headline Total Return at 11.9% is the highest it has been since 2015 Standing Investment Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 9
Slide 10: Distribution of Capital Growth
All Property Distribution of Capital Growth moved to the right in 2024 3.0 25TH 75TH Source: MSCI South Africa Annual Property Index Details Information Classification: GENERAL
Slide 11: Capital values have recovered while income return is above average
Capital values have recovered while at the same time, income return is above the 10-year average All Property Income Return Capital Growth % 9.0 6.0 4.0 8.5 2.0 8.0 0.0 - 2.0 7.5 - 4.0 - 6.0 7.0 - 8.0 - 10.0 6.5 - 12.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2
Slide 12: Transactional values are comparable to the assessed values
Transactional values are comparable to the assessed values Community Centers Small Regional Centers Regional Centers 35 000.0 35 000.0 45 000.0 40 000.0 30 000.0 30 000.0 35 000.0 25 000.0 25 000.0 30 000.0 20 000.0 20 000.0 25 000.0 15 000.0 20 000.0 15 000.0 15 000.0 10 000.0 10 000.0 10 000.0 5 0
Slide 13: Net Income Growth - 50% of the market is achieving real growth
Net Income Growth - 50% of the market is achieving real growth All Property Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Net Income Growth (y-o-y) 10
Slide 14: Tenant demand is static
All Property Tenant demand is static overall but ticking up at the top of the spread Standing Investments Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 14
Slide 15: Rental growth is inline with inflation
All Property % p.a. Base Rental Growth, Y-on-Y, % 40 Rental growth is 30 inline with 20 inflation 10 4.8 0 -10 -20 -30 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Same Store CPI 10th -90th percentile Basic Rental Growth Source: MSCI Same Store Information Classification: GENERAL 15
Slide 16: Gross Cost to Income ratio also remained static
All Property Gross Cost to Income ratio also remained static Same Store Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 16
Slide 17: Gross operating cost growth was largely driven by Electricity cost
All Property Gross operating cost growth was largely driven by Electricity cost Same Store Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL
Slide 18: Total Return improved for each sector
Sector Analysis Total Return improved for each sector - industrial showing the best returns, again Standing Investments Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 18
Slide 19: Spread of capital growth is narrower for retail and industrial
Sector Analysis Spread of capital growth is 5.0 narrower for retail and industrial 0.4 than for office and 2.1 residential. The tail for offices is 3.4 longer. Standing Investments 25TH 75TH Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL
Slide 20: Net Operating Income Yields stable at the core
Sector Analysis Net Operating Income Yields stable at the core – but a wide range around it Standing Investments Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL
Slide 21: Vacancies at the top end increase in all sectors except retail
Vacancies at the top end increase in all sectors except retail showing weaking demand % p.a. Vacancy by GLA; Office % p.a. Vacancy by GLA; Retail 60 25 50 20 40 15 30 10 20 15.8 5 10 3.9 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2
Slide 22: Office rentals declining while other sectors delivered real growth
Sector Analysis Office rentals declining while other sectors delivered real growth Same Store Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 22
Slide 23: Sales growth in equilibrium with rental growth
Retail Performance Benchmarking Sales growth in equilibrium with rental growth makes for tenant sustainabili ty Source: SAPOA Retail Trends Report Q4 2024, Author MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 23
Slide 24: Trading Density growth slowed but inline with inflation
Retail Performance Benchmarking Trading Density growth slowed but inline with inflation Source: SAPOA Retail Trends Report Q4 2024, Author MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 24
Slide 25: Only retail's Net Operating Income growth kept up with inflation
Sector Analysis Only retail’s Net Operating Income growth kept up with inflation Same Store Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 25
Slide 26: Gross Cost to Income Ratio stable
Sector Analysis Gross Cost to Income Ratio stable but for industrial where it increased slightly Same Store Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL 26
Slide 27: Electricity is the largest contributor to operating cost growth
Sector Analysis Electricity is the largest contributor to operating cost growth, except for Residentia l where tenants pays Same Store directly Source: MSCI Information Classification: GENERAL
Slide 28: Summary
Summary South African Both capital Rental growth Net Income The outlook for direct, growth and is exceeding growth - only 2025 is positive. ungeared income inflation in all retail is on Challenges with property returns have sectors par, while all electricity returns are increased except ot
Slide 29: About MSCI
About MSCI MSCI is a leading provider of critical decision support tools and services for the global investment community. With over 50 years of expertise in research, data and technology, we power better investment decisions by enabling clients to understand and analyze key drivers of risk and retu
Slide 30: Notice and Disclaimer
Notice and Disclaimer This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of MSCI Inc. or its subsidiaries (collectively, “MSCI”), or MSCI’s licensors, direct or indirect suppliers or