Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (December 2018)
83 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, December 2018
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors
-1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors December 2018
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development 6th Consecutive Year as the Member of DJSI Emerging Markets 5th Consecutive Year of leading positions: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 15.6% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder and key 16.2% 48.0% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in adherence with 20.2% strong corporate PTT 48.0%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers 50.0% Parax
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUEL GAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 CCR ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 KMT-2 JET 50,000 CDU-3 180,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 HVU-2 FCCU HDS-2 HVU-3 HVU-3 10,400 95,
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,235 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity 30% 30% Fang (3 kbpd) market market shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q3/18 Q2/18 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Access to Indochina markets through deep Close proximity to the key domestic markets water ports and trucks Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the VIETNAM key domestic markets Bangkok and In
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude -15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin %
Slide 16: Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate
Refining -16- Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate KBD 9M/17 9M/18 115% 2.3% 114% 111% 112% 112% 113% 108% 112% 800 111% 110% 600 1.0% 98% 98% 97% 400 97% 96% 90% 94% 2.7% 89% 90% 89% 6.2% 200 70% 0 * Q1/17 Q2 Q
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon for GOC 3(1) Category 2016 : TOP 2014 : TOP Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in (2) the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross ma
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights
-19- KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 20: Q3/18 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- Q3/18 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Improved refinery margins supported by lower crude premium due Implication to more supplies of light crude oil in the market Mkt GRM at 5.0 $/bbl 1) Rising crude price driven by supply tightness from 1) decreasing (Q2/18 = 4.0 $/bb
Slide 21: Q3/18 Key Achievements
Key Highlights -21- Q3/18 Key Achievements Key Achievements Q3/18 TOP Group Net Profit Operational Unit : million THB (MB) Maintain high reliable production Excellence Q2/18 Q3/18 9M/18 Net Operating Profit F/X gain/(loss) Reversal of NRV/(NRV) & Adjusted to cost Others i.e. Hedging gain/(loss) &
Slide 22: Q3/18 Margin and Productivity Improvement
Key Highlights -22- Q3/18 Margin and Productivity Improvement (VS Corporate Plan) Cost Management 121 MB 134 MB General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Project & Manpower Margin Improvement management (Hydrocarbon Management : HMR) and Productivity Improvement Unit: mil
Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) Higher group cash cost in Q2/18 9.0 mainly
Slide 24: Financial Performance
Financial -24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 414,575 36,925 390,090 31,099 32,675 33,448 337,388 293,569 274,739 289,589 22,808 25,492 25,496 23,820 22,337 20,35019,713 19,541 17,924 101,
Slide 25: Q3/18 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -25- Q3/18 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Sep 18 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Debt 241,473 240,899 75,325 million THB 6,249 million THB 37,588 36,568 Trade Payable Cash & ST 76,910 69,076 / O
Slide 26: 2018 Dividend Payment
Financial -26- 2018 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 5.10 4.39 4.57 2.75 3
Slide 27: Strategic Investment Plans
-27- STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS
Slide 28: TOP Galaxy: Strategic Direction 2017-2022
-28- TOP Galaxy: Strategic Direction 2017-2022 Vision: A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific Vision Top quartile TOP ROIC & Measurement NP Growth Diversified business DJSI 2022 performer OpEx Competitive Long Term High Improvement Growth Performance - Clean Fu
Slide 29: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors
Updated CAPEX plan -Use only for KM Session- -29- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Planned capital investment Project Total 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 27 35 Infrastructure Improvement - Lorry Expa
Slide 30: Clean Fuel Project (CFP): Rationale & Timeline
CFP -Use only for KM Session- -30- Clean Fuel Project (CFP) : Rationale & Timeline Project Rationale • Risk of losing competitiveness to others regional refineries as more new refineries with higher capacity and more advanced technologies are on stream. • Adjust product portfolio by producing high d
Slide 31: Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect
CFP -31- Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect LPG Tops ISOM SRU Sulfur 5 Naphtha HDT-3 CCR-1/2 Platformate PX/BZ TPX HDT-4 Hy. Naph CDU-3 4 180 kbd Crude LPG LPG Kerosene Tops KMT-1/2 Lt.Naph 400 kbd Isomerate Gasoline New HDS-2/3 CDU-4 Diesel Jet/Kero 220 kbd HDS-4 Diesel 4 HMU-1/2&PSA- 2 1/3 Fuel Oil H
Slide 32: CFP Competitiveness
CFP -32- CFP Competitiveness Without CFP With CFP CDU Capacity CDU Capacity 275,000 bbl per day 400,000 bbl per day Upgrading Ratio 28 % Upgrading Ratio 50% (upgrading capacity(1) over CDU capacity) (upgrading capacity(2) over CDU capacity) Power Plant 250 MW Remark : (1) including HCU 1/2, FCCU, TC
Slide 33: CFP Value Proposition
CFP -33- CFP Value Proposition Flexibility of crude intake Product Upgrading Light Distillate 25% (LPG, Light naphtha, Heavy naphtha, Light Crude Gasoline) 40% - 50% (API > 31) 23% 5% - 15% Medium Crude Middle Distillate (25 < API < 31) 62% (Jet , Gasoil) 100% 53% 40% - 50% Heavy Crude (API < 25) 17
Slide 34: 2019 Market Outlook
2019 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 35: Crude Oil
CRUDE OIL
Slide 36: Global Economic Outlook
-36- Economy Global Economic Outlook Stable GDP growth at 3.7% in 2018-19 led by improved emerging and developing market, but downside risks such as trade barriers pressure growth China Vietnam India 2018 2019 2020-23 Growth (%YoY) Thailand Indonesia US EU World Oct-18(1) Oct-18(1) Oct-18(1) 12% US
Slide 37: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
-37- Crude Oil Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.4 MBD in 2019 North America Europe FSU Unit: KBD 330 120 370 90 2017 180 80 2018 140 0 20 2019 Middle East 140 Asia Latin America 10 930 40 850 -30 790 Africa -20 -20 80 30 0 Demand Growth IEA (MBD) (MBD)
Slide 38: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
-38- Crude Oil Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated Non-OPEC supply growth to grow by 1.8 MBD in 2019 North America Europe FSU 2000 300 Unit: KBD 230 2017 1240 -50 -50 120 2018 870 -70 2019 Middle East 10 0 Latin America Asia 340 -20 Africa 40 -150 -130 60 0 -260 0 Non OPEC Growth Remarks
Slide 39: Steady-to-Firm Oil Prices as OPEC Cuts Output amid Supply Risks
Crude Oil -39- Steady-to-Firm Oil Prices as OPEC Cuts Output amid Supply Risks Dubai Price Movement U.S. Grants Import $/BBL OPEC-led Cut U.S. Re-imposed Waivers to 8 Sanctions on Iran Countries 2 Supply Cut Case: 100 Deal Extended until the Dec-18 OPEC Cutting Output to Balance OPEC-led Cut Concern
Slide 40: Surplus Market as Supply Growth Overtakes Demand Growth
Crude Oil -40- 1 Surplus Market as Supply Growth Overtakes Demand Growth A Falling Iranian Crude Export as Sanction Hits B OPEC and Non-OPEC Outputs Cover Iran Loss Iran’s Crude Oil Export 2019 World Oil Supply Growth (YoY) MBD MBD 3.0 1.8 2.0 Other +1.6 MBD YoY 1.1 May’19: Import LATAM 2.0 1.0 waiv
Slide 41: OPEC Balancing Oil Market amid Emerging Supply Risks
Crude Oil -41- 2 OPEC Balancing Oil Market amid Emerging Supply Risks A OPEC to Eliminate Market Surplus B Venezuela’s Economic Crisis Pressures Output OPEC Crude Oil Production Venezuela’s Crude Oil Production MBD MBD 34 * Estimated 2019 OPEC Supply from ‘No Supply Cut Case’ 3.0 **IEA (Oct’18), OPE
Slide 42: Petroleum Products
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 43: Stable-to-Firm Refining Margins from Strong Middle Distillate Crack
Refinery -43- Stable-to-Firm Refining Margins from Strong Middle Distillate Crack and Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.7 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.0 5.2 4.2 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Y2015 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2-
Slide 44: Soft Gasoline Cracks Pressured by Abundant Supply
Refinery -44- 1 Soft Gasoline Cracks Pressured by Abundant Supply A High Supply Due to New Refineries’ Start-up B Flat U.S. Demand Growth from High Retail Price World Gasoline Supply Growth (YoY) U.S. Gasoline Demand KBD MBD 500 10.0 2019 : 9.4 MBD (+0.0 MBD YoY) 400 9.5 300 9.0 200 100 8.5 2018 201
Slide 45: Firm Middle Distillate Cracks from Healthy Demand Growth
Refinery -45- Firm Middle Distillate Cracks from Healthy Demand Growth 2 and Positive Sentiment Ahead of IMO Implementation A High Supply Due to New Refineries’ Start-up B Higher Demand from Economic Growth World Middle Distillates Supply Growth (YoY) Asia Pacific & US Middle Distillate Demand KBD M
Slide 46: Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition
Refinery -46- 3 Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Japan India Vietnam Teapot Thailand Net Addition Operating Rate [RHS] KBD Operating Rate, % 3500 3150 100 95 2500 90 1386
Slide 47: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -47- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth (B) (B) 9M/18(B) Y2019F Year on Year Y2016 Y2017 VS 9M/17 VS 2018 Steady demand growth due to Mogas (A) +9.8% +3.7% +2.7% lower oil price Softer demand growth due to Jet/Kero +6.8% +4.4% +6.2% limited airport capacity Higher demand
Slide 48: Aromatics
AROMATICS
Slide 49: Softer PX and BZ Markets on Concerns of Roll-Over Capacity
Aromatics -49- Softer PX and BZ Markets on Concerns of Roll-Over Capacity Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 529 343 447 245 231 332 315 341 225 317 313 304 195 212 280 273 258 260 276 268 156 138 174 185 163 126 127 86 Y2016 Y2017 Q4TD-18* Q2-18 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-1
Slide 50: Pressured PX Market from Roll-Over Capacity amid Slower Demand Growth
Aromatics -50- Pressured PX Market from Roll-Over Capacity amid Slower 1 Demand Growth A Roll-Over Capacity to Pressure PX Market in 2019 B PTA Demand Growth to Continually Boost PX Market AP/ME Effective PX Capacity Addition AP/ME PTA Demand by Sector Mil TON Fujian Line1 Heng Li 1 Mil TON 0.8MTA 2
Slide 51: AP/ME PX Balance
Aromatics -51- AP/ME PX Balance AP/ME PX Supply Demand Balance 2010-2018 (CAGR) 2019 (CAGR) 2019-2023 (CAGR) Mil TON Cap: 5.6% Cap: 7.7% Cap: 6.7% Operating Rate Dem: 6.4% Dem: 3.2% Dem: 3.5% 70 90% 60 60.6 62.1 50 58.1 80% 51.8 40 48.0 46.2 47.5 43.0 44.6 42.7 44.0 37.8 40.6 41.2 40.2 41.4 70% 30 3
Slide 52: Softer BZ Market on Concerns of Roll-Over Capacity
Aromatics -52- Softer BZ Market on Concerns of Roll-Over Capacity, but still 2 Supported by Chinese Demand A Slightly Higher Capacity Addition in 2019 B C Expect Lower BZ stock to Support Import in Mid-2019 AP/ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition KTON BZ Stock in East China Mil TON Fujian Line1 Heng Li
Slide 53: AP/ME BZ Balance
Aromatics -53- AP/ME BZ Balance AP/ME BZ Supply Demand Balance 2010-2018 (CAGR) 2019 2019-2023 (CAGR) Cap: 3.2% Cap: 2.7% Cap: 4.3% Mil TON Dem: 3.9% Dem: 4.1% Dem: 3.8% Operating Rate 60 90% 50 48.9 80% 40 46.0 47.3 41.3 42.8 39.0 40.2 30 36.8 37.2 37.7 36.1 70% 32.9 32.8 34.5 32.4 33.7 34.8 31.2 2
Slide 54: Base Oil & Bitumen
BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 55: Soft Base Oil Market on New Additional Supply
Base Oil & Bitumen -55- Soft Base Oil Market on New Additional Supply 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 AP Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition Heng Li : 300 KTA 556 528 512 482 300 KTA 427 409 443 451 458 498 417 Hainan : 500 KTA 367 412 368 500 KTA Mil TON ExxonMobil : 500 KTA 3 2.4 2 0.8 0.6 0.8 Y2016 Y2017
Slide 56: Stable Bitumen Market on Steady Regional Demand Growth
Base Oil & Bitumen -56- Stable Bitumen Market on Steady Regional Demand Growth Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Firm Asia Bitumen Demand on Continuous Projects One belt one road Target to increase 20% -7 project of national highway -13 -22 -48 -61 -49 -38 -29 -45 -31 -41 length in FY19 -56 -67 -80 Y2016 Y2017
Slide 57: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
LINEAR ALKYL BENZENE (LAB)
Slide 58: Recovery of LAB Market Supported by Demand Growth
LAB -58- Recovery of LAB Market Supported by Demand Growth and No Additional Capacity LAB Market LAB Spread** ($/TON) LAB Capacity vs Demand in AP/ME Demand growth (2019) = 2.5% MTA Capacity growth (2019) = 0% 654666675627656 635627619 606 634 2.5 603 543 539 534522550 529566562 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Slide 59: Conclusion
CONCLUSION
Slide 60: 2019 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -60- 2019 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 2018) Crude Oil Steady-to-Firm Oil Prices as OPEC Cuts Output amid Supply Risks Stable-to-Firm Refining Margins from Strong Middle Distillate Refinery Crack and Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition Aromatics Softer PX and BZ Markets on Concerns
Slide 61: Thank You
-61- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Slide 62: Appendix
-62- APPENDIX • Q3/18 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 63: Q3/18: Improved Mkt GRM supported by Lower Crude Premium
Refining -63- Q3/18: Improved Mkt GRM supported by Lower Crude Premium Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2017 2018 2017 Q2/18 Q3/18 9M/18 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M Q4TD* FY17 108% 115% 112% DUBAI (DB) 53.1 49.8 50.5 59.3 63.9 72.1 74.3 70.1 68.2 53.2 % MB Int
Slide 64: Q3/18: Robust Aromatics Contribution supported by Strong PX spread
Aromatics/LAB -64- Q3/18: Robust Aromatics Contribution supported by Strong PX spread Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2017 2018 2017 Q2/18 Q3/18 9M/18 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M Q4TD* FY17 84% 89% 88% PX**-ULG95 312 273 258 260 304 268 451 341 529 276 Q3/18 Market BZ**-ULG95 34
Slide 65: Q3/18: Lower Contribution as Soften Lube Base Spread
Lube Base Oil -65- Q3/18: Lower Contribution as Soften Lube Base Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2017 2018 2017 Q2/18 Q3/18 9M/18 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9M Q4TD * FY17 89% 72% 83% 500SN-HSFO 451 556 528 458 512 481 417 432 368 528 % Base Oil & Specialty Sales Volu
Slide 66: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -66- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 13.0 14.3 16.4 14.4 16.9 Product to Feed 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.0 12.2 11.6 Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/18 Q2 Q3 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.1 8.1 5.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 5.0 4.0 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q
Slide 67: Q3/18 Power Sector Performance
Power -67- Q3/18 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** [74%] [100%] Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) 2,504 GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Electricity(1) 1,912 Equity metho
Slide 68: Q3/18: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -68- Q3/18: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: record high run rate to capture strong demand in domestic and Indochina market • Aromatic/LAB: higher contribution mainly from robust PX spread due to
Slide 69: Q3/18 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -69- Q3/18 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (Unit : million THB) Q3/18 Q2/18 QoQ Q3/17 YoY 9M/18 9M/17 YoY QoQ analysis Sales Revenue 101,261 96,710 4,551 (A) 80,296 20,965 289,589 247,945 41,644 A Increase overall product Hedging Gain / (Loss) (140) 70 (210) (20) (120) 32 (70) 102 (B) prices fo
Slide 70: 9M/18 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -70- 9M/18 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Investments Operating Cash Flow 9M/18 9M/17 9M/18 9M/17 Investments 3,798 (17,267) Operating Cash Flow 7,213 22,349 Dividend income 768 740 Net income & non-cash adj. 25,478 27,487 + ST investments 4,257 (1
Slide 71: Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition
Refinery -71- Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition Start-up Nameplate Country Company period) (KBD) AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Q1-18 Iran 120 Bandar Abbas - PGSOC/1 Japan India (Phase 2) Vietnam Teapot Vietnam 186 Nghi Son Net Addition KBD Q3-18 China 100 Petrochina H
Slide 72: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -72- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM $/BBL EU – US Margins 12 10 25 8 15 6 4 5 2 0 -5 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 SING CRACK SING HY
Slide 73: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -73- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-16
Slide 74: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -74- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 75: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -75- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-17 5yr-range 2018
Slide 76: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -76- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-17 5yr-range 2018 20
Slide 77: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -77- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 500 600 400 500 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2
Slide 78: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -78- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 9M/2018, LPG demand jumped by 6.6% YoY 20 on the back of 24.7% YoY higher demand from 18.1 18.4 petrochemical sector, as a result of higher 17.5 17.8 17.8 18.0 17.8
Slide 79: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 9M/2018, Mogas demand rose moderately by 34 2.7% YoY to an average 30.8 ML/day. Although, 31.5 31.7 the retail price of Moga
Slide 80: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -80- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 9M/2018, Jet consumption increased 21.6 22 21.0 21.2 significantly by 6.2% over the corresponding 19.7 period last year mainly owing to booming tourism 20 industry
Slide 81: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -81- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 9M/2018, Diesel demand rose moderately by 72 69.7 70.2 1.0% YoY as a result of the growth of Thai 70 economic, according to higher Manufacturing 6
Slide 82: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -82- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 9M/2018, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 10 3.2%YoY, as a result of 18.9% YoY higher demand from transportation sector which takes 8 approximately 64.7
Slide 83: Thank You
-83- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (December 2018) on 6ix