Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK

Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Corporate Update (February 2023)

53 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s corporate update, Feb 22, 2023

  1. Slide 1: Duke Energy Carolinas Resource Plan Stakeholder Meeting 1

    Duke Energy Carolinas Resource Plan Stakeholder Meeting 1 Virtual Meeting – February 22, 2023 *Please note, with the exception of the afternoon session, this meeting is being recorded. Presentations will be posted on the IRP website, and discussion portions will be kept for internal purposes only to

  2. Slide 2: Today's Agenda

    Today’s Agenda 9:00am: Welcome, Introductions, and Housekeeping Items 9:15am: Resource Planning Process Overview 10:15am: Break 10:30am: Technical Session: Development of Load Forecast and Key Drivers 12:30pm: Lunch Break 1:30pm: South Carolina Session: Available for Additional SC Comments and Quest

  3. Slide 3: Great Plains Institute (GPI)

    Great Plains Institute (GPI) Doug Scott, Aileen Cole Vice President, Energy Systems Policy Research Specialist Trevor Drake, Senior Program Manager Alissa Bemis, Amy Ward Meeting & Administrative Policy Associate Coordinator

  4. Slide 4: Related GPI Work

    Related GPI Work • Integrated Resource Planning • Power Plant Host Community Impacts • Time-Varying Rate Designs • Electric Vehicle Investments and Programs • Distribution System Planning • Load Flexibility and Demand Response Programs • Utility Performance Metrics

  5. Slide 5: Duke Energy Welcome

    Duke Energy Welcome Swati Daji Senior Vice President, Enterprise Strategy and Planning

  6. Slide 6: Meeting Ground Rules

    Meeting Ground Rules • Respect each other: Help us to collectively uphold respect for each other's experiences and opinions, even in difficult conversations. We need everyone’s wisdom to achieve better understanding and develop robust solutions. • Focus on today’s topics: There are many topics that

  7. Slide 7: Attendee Roles: Observers

    Attendee Roles: Observers • Please use the “Q&A” feature, on the menu at the bottom of your screen, to submit questions to presenters and Technical Representatives. Please be respectful and focus on issues, not people • Questions/comments submitted will be seen by GPI staff, presenters, and Technica

  8. Slide 8: Attendee Roles: Technical Representative

    Attendee Roles: Technical Representative • May utilize the camera and unmute themselves. • To manage participation, please use the “raise hand” feature to indicate you would like to join the conversation. • Technical Representatives (like Observers) may also submit questions to presenters by using t

  9. Slide 9: Additional Participation

    Additional Participation Meeting materials/recordings will be uploaded to the website: Meeting recordings (Q&A portions of meetings will be removed to adhere to the non- www.duke-energy.com/carolinas-irp attribution rule) and meeting summaries will be uploaded to the website for Information/feedback

  10. Slide 10: Stakeholder Engagement Process Overview

    Stakeholder Engagement Process Overview Rebecca Dulin, Enterprise Strategy & Planning

  11. Slide 11: 2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview

    2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Meeting 1 Meeting 4 Final Modeling and Feb. 22 Mid-April Document Preparation Introduction & Topics TBD Process Overview IRP Filing Meeting 3 (PSCSC) Technical Session: Late April: March 22 Aug. 15 Load Forecast m

  12. Slide 12: 2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview

    2023 Resource Planning Stakeholder Engagement Overview Potential Technical Meeting Topics:  Load Forecast  Resource Assumptions: Selectable Resources:  Cost Solar  Availability (year first available, annual/cumulative limits, etc.) Solar Plus Storage  Operational characteristics Standalone Stor

  13. Slide 13: Questions?

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  14. Slide 14: Resource Planning Process Overview

    Resource Planning Process Overview Glen Snider, Managing Director, Carolinas Integrated Resource Planning

  15. Slide 15: Resource Planning for a Dual State System

    Resource Planning for a Dual State System Carolinas Service Territory  Duke Energy owns 33 GW of power generating capacity across our 56,000 square mile service territory serving 4.5 million retail customers in North and South Carolina  The plan must meet the needs of customers in growing Carolina

  16. Slide 16: Carolinas Combined Fleet Transition Progress

    Carolinas Combined Fleet Transition Progress With the deterioration of the domestic coal industry, a measured exit from coal-fired generation is a strategic imperative to insulate customers from growing risks around fuel price and availability for these aging units. The combined DEC/DEP fleet is a n

  17. Slide 17: Fundamentals of Resource Planning in the Carolinas

    Fundamentals of Resource Planning in the Carolinas Planning to Serve Increasing Energy Needs Demand Patterns Vary Seasonally Winter Day  Load forecast changes Customer Secondary evening peak as  Economic development driving growth customers return home Demand  Effects of customer programs and gri

  18. Slide 18: Planning Objectives for a Changing Energy Landscape

    Planning Objectives for a Changing Energy Landscape Power Supply Reliability Balance Risks for Orderly Transition  Maintain adequate long-term reserves to serve  Manage pace of coal retirements and emissions customers through peak demand periods reductions  Maintain adequate system flexibility to

  19. Slide 19: Developing a Resource Portfolio: Analytical Process

    Developing a Resource Portfolio: Analytical Process Develop Spring 2023 Model Inputs Long-Term Planning Models Reliability Verification  Strategic Energy & Risk Valuation Forecasts & Assumptions Model (SERVM)  Load Forecast  Evaluate portfolio reliability over 43 weather years, including  EE/DSM

  20. Slide 20: Components of a Resource Plan

    Components of a Resource Plan Near-Term 15-Year Path to Actions Outlook 2050  Relatively low uncertainty in  Greater uncertainty over IRP  Significant uncertainty in near term planning horizon long-term future  Approvals often sought prior  Iterations and revisions in  Indicative plans subject

  21. Slide 21: <e GREAT /PLAINS®’ Bettet Eneray.

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  22. Slide 22: Break

    Break Please return at 10:35am

  23. Slide 23: Technical Session: Load Forecast

    Technical Session: Load Forecast Duke Energy Presenters: Stakeholder Technical Representatives:  Glen Snider, Managing Director, Carolinas Integrated Resource Planning  PJ Klein, Corning Incorporated  Ben Passty, Principal Load Forecasting Analyst  Adam Helsel, Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies

  24. Slide 24: Fundamentals of Resource Planning in the Carolinas

    Fundamentals of Resource Planning in the Carolinas Planning to Serve Increasing Energy Needs Demand Patterns Vary Seasonally Winter Day  Load forecast changes Customer Secondary evening peak as  Economic development driving growth customers return home Demand  Effects of customer programs and gri

  25. Slide 25: Sample DEC Forecasted Energy Sales

    Sample DEC Forecasted Energy Sales – System Obligation at Generator (GWh) sample *Source: 2022 Carbon Plan, Chapter 2, Table 2-1 | 25

  26. Slide 26: Load forecasting methodology overview

    Load forecasting methodology overview Inputs Energy Forecast Baseline Forecast and Validation Adjustment Econometric Baseline Data Weather Peak Load UEE, NEM, EV Modeling by Energy Gathering Normalization Forecast Adjustments Customer Class Forecast  Historical energy consumption  Test all economi

  27. Slide 27: Primary Forecast Drivers by Customer Class

    Primary Forecast Drivers by Customer Class Retail Load System Load Residential Commercial Industrial Government Wholesale  Population  Gross Domestic  Manufacturing  Employment  Contract by Contract Product Employment  Income  Rates  Income  Industrial Production  Rates  Weather  Rates I

  28. Slide 28: Forecasting Process

    Forecasting Process EXTERNAL DATA INTERNAL DATA Initial Forecast:  Customer Growth Multiple Itron SAE modeling runs Efficiency trends Large Account trends Load Shapes  MWh Sales Strategic Issues  MW Peaks Appliance saturations Appliance status  Rate Design  IVVC  Other EV Load Forecast Weather

  29. Slide 29: Peak and Hourly Load Estimation Process

    Peak and Hourly Load Estimation Process External Source Data Load (MW) Itron/SAE Model Runs Internal Source Data DEC/DEP DEC/DEP Annual Forecasts Hourly Forecasts | 29

  30. Slide 30: Key Takeaways

    Key Takeaways  The load forecast isn’t just about a number, but about presenting a coherent understanding of relationships between the drivers, inputs, and resulting load forecasts  Allows for understanding of a whole range of possible futures  Allows the Company to be understand potential headwi

  31. Slide 31: Load Forecast: Energy Efficiency

    Load Forecast: Energy Efficiency sample *Source: 2022 Carbon Plan, Chapter 2, Table 2-1 | 31

  32. Slide 32: Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast Update

    Utility Energy Efficiency Forecast Update The Companies continue to forecast aggressive but achievable implementation of utility energy efficiency programs over the planning horizon. Updates since last filing:  Using the Fall 2022 retail load forecast (instead of Spring 2022)  Updated with 2023 pr

  33. Slide 33: Forecast – 1% of Eligible Retail Load

    Forecast – 1% of Eligible Retail Load DEC 1% Cumulative EE kWh - With Roll-off* DEP 1% Cumulative EE kWh - With Roll-off* 9,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 Millions Millions 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 2023 Forecast 2022 Forecast 2023 Forecast 2022 F

  34. Slide 34: Forecast – 1.5% of Eligible Retail Load

    Forecast – 1.5% of Eligible Retail Load DEP 1.5% Cumulative EE kWh - With Roll-off* DEC 1.5% Cumulative EE kWh - With Roll-off* 6,000 9,000 5,000 8,000 7,000 4,000 6,000 Millions 3,000 Millions 5,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 2023 Forecast (1.5% of Eligibile Retail) 2022 Forecast (1 %

  35. Slide 35: Potential Enablers for Long Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates

    Potential Enablers for Long Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates Structural modifications and mechanisms that remove market barriers to program participation In collaboration with the On-Tariff Working Group, designed and filed Multifamily New Construction Tariff On Bill Pilot (Docket E-2 Sub 1307). Filed

  36. Slide 36: Potential Enablers for Long Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates

    Potential Enablers for Long Term EE/DSM Forecast - Updates Modifications expanding the potential measures and offers reducing consumption from the grid​ While no clear plans or path toward program attribution, the Company is working to provide input when requested from NC Building Code Council and U

  37. Slide 37: Load Forecast: NEM Rooftop Solar

    Load Forecast: NEM Rooftop Solar sample *Source: 2022 Carbon Plan, Chapter 2, Table 2-1 | 37

  38. Slide 38: Carolinas Net Metered (NEM) History – DEC & DEP

    Carolinas Net Metered (NEM) History – DEC & DEP  NEM adoption has been accelerating  Factors influencing historical trends in the Carolinas  HB589 Rebate Program  Investment Tax Credits (ITC)  25% SC Tax Rebate  Falling solar panel prices  Recent trends in adoption influence  SC Act 236 expi

  39. Slide 39: DRAFT Carolinas NEM Solar Forecast

    DRAFT Carolinas NEM Solar Forecast NEM as % of Total System Energy Jurisdiction Spring 2023 Spring 2022 2023 Duke Energy Carolinas 0.5% 0.5% Duke Energy Progress 0.6% 0.5% 2025 Duke Energy Carolinas 0.8% 0.6% Duke Energy Progress 0.9% 0.6% 2030 Duke Energy Carolinas 1.3% 0.9% Duke Energy Progress 1.

  40. Slide 40: DRAFT Carolinas NEM Solar Forecast

    DRAFT Carolinas NEM Solar Forecast NEM Projections  Base Case projections use currently-approved tariffs in North Carolina and South Carolina  Updates from 2022 Forecast:  18 additional months of adoption data  Refreshed system costs (+20%)  Refreshed residential rates (+10%)  Extend 30% ITC t

  41. Slide 41: Load Forecast: Electric Vehicles

    Load Forecast: Electric Vehicles sample *Source: 2022 Carbon Plan, Chapter 2, Table 2-1 | 41

  42. Slide 42: Carolinas Electric Vehicle History – DEC & DEP

    Carolinas Electric Vehicle History – DEC & DEP History  EV Registrations have increased about 45% YoY from 2021 to 2022 in DEC & DEP  Light Duty EV adoptions were in line with the 2022 forecast while Medium and Heavy Duty EV adoptions were below forecast VIO = vehicles in operation Load Forecast D

  43. Slide 43: DRAFT EV Adoption Forecast for the Carolinas

    DRAFT EV Adoption Forecast for the Carolinas Base EV Projections  Reflects impacts of IRA incentives, IIJA, additional EV models, OEM electrification pledges, ICEV bans in CA and other states  Includes projections for light duty (LD), medium duty (MD), and heavy duty (HD) EV adoption 46% - 48% by

  44. Slide 44: DRAFT EV and NEM Net Energy Impacts

    DRAFT EV and NEM Net Energy Impacts Net Impacts of EVs and NEM  Energy and peak capacity growth from EVs greatly outweigh reductions from NEM adoption DEC NEM/EV Net Load in TWh DEP NEM/EV Net Load in TWh 14.00 8.00 12.00 7.00 10.00 6.00 Nem Ind 5.00 Nem Ind Annual Energy (TWh) Annual Energy (TWh)

  45. Slide 45: Load Forecast: Rate Design

    Load Forecast: Rate Design sample *Source: 2022 Carbon Plan, Chapter 2, Table 2-1 | 45

  46. Slide 46: Rate Design Opportunities

    Rate Design Opportunities Time of Use and Dynamic Pricing Intersection with Demand Response System Beneficial Electrification Load Forecast Drivers | 4 6

  47. Slide 47: Rate Design – More Options Yielding Grid Benefits

    Rate Design – More Options Yielding Grid Benefits Dynamic & TOU Pricing Hourly Pricing Initiative Status Initiative Status Time periods based on system dynamics Filed (NC/SC) Dynamically drive price responsive behavior Critical peak prices or response rewards CPP Rates (NC/SC) New structures needed

  48. Slide 48: <e GREAT /PLAINS®’ Bettet Eneray.

    <e GREAT /PLAINS®’ Bettet Eneray. Naat INSTITUTE Batioy Word

  49. Slide 49: Lunch Break

    Lunch Break At 1:30pm we will return to address any additional South Carolina-specific comments or questions about today’s session

  50. Slide 50: Additional SC-specific Comments and Questions

    South Carolina Session: Additional SC-specific Comments and Questions Heather Shirley Smith  Vice President, Regulatory Affairs and Policy (SC) Leigh Tondini  Utility Strategy Director (SC) Sam Wellborn  Associate General Counsel (SC) Earlier Identified Technical Representatives South Carolina Se

  51. Slide 51: Additional Participation

    Additional Participation Meeting materials/recordings will be uploaded to the website: Meeting recordings (Q&A portions of meetings will be removed to adhere to the non- www.duke-energy.com/carolinas-irp attribution rule) and meeting summaries will be uploaded to the website for Information/feedback

  52. Slide 52: Next steps

    Next steps: • Questions/feedback can be sent to DukeCarolinas@gpisd.net • The next meeting will take place on Thursday, March 16. GPI will be sending out an email in the next week with the link to register.

  53. Slide 53: Thank You

    Se | GREAT PLAINS | tetterEneray i] | INSTITUTE Better Word. THANK YOU

Duke Energy — Corporate Update (February 2023) on 6ix