Swedbank Ab Class A · OMXSTO:SWED_A
Swedbank Ab Class A — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
76 slides from Swedbank Ab Class A's earnings presentation, Oct 23, 2024
Slide 1: Investor presentation Q3 2024
Investor presentation Q3 2024
Slide 2: Disclaimer
● Certain statements made in this presentation are forward ● None of Swedbank AB or any of its directors, officers or looking statements. Such statements are based on current employees nor any other person accepts any liability expectations and are subject to several risks and uncertainties whatsoev
Slide 3: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank
Slide 4: Key financial metrics 2019-2023
14.7 8.9 13.2 13.3 18.3 35 10 25 Earnings per share, SEK 15 30.4 -40 17.6 11.5 18.6 19.4 Return on equity, % 5 -5 -90 Cost to income ratio 0.43 0.54 0.44 0.40 0.33 Credit impairment 26 ratio, bps 9 1 8 9 390bps buffer CET1 capital ratio, % 18.3 19.0 17.0 17.5 17.8 50 50 50 50 50 Dividend per share,
Slide 5: Swedbank franchise at a glance
~80% of loan book Mortgages Savings Insurance Payment Swedbank Swedbank Swedbank franchise Loan-to-deposits CET1 capital buffer Hypotek Robur Insurance Mobile App Internet bank LCR NSFR ~15% of loan book Partnership Branches with more than Customer 143 in Sweden Impairment ratio 50 Savings centre 74
Slide 6: Strategic ambition and purpose
• By providing guidance on your terms • By helping you to be more sustainable • By supporting you in a proactive way • By making the difficult simple An attractive workplace for An efficient, profitable and A standardised, scalable employees with a culture based compliant bank and financial and stab
Slide 7: Four business priorities
Four business priorities C1) Leverage proven business model and pricing strategy 2) Grow share of wallet for existing customers 3) Grow business in prioritised segments 4) Improve availability and operational excellence ‘© Swedbank
Slide 8: Net interest income and lending growth
● 54% NII growth 2023 ● Protected back-book YoY growth YoY growth Net interest income 54% Net lending ● Volume growth 8% 9% 8% in the Baltics 23% 2% 50.9 ● Leading market positions 2% 22.9 -2% maintained 21.3 33.2 19.5 27.7 18.1 27.0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 © Swedbank 8
Slide 9: Increased proactivity and customer growth
● Increased proactivity ● Added 40k customers with long-term savings +25% +40k 900k ● #1 P&C insurer in Estonia 250k 480k 440k 200k 2022 2023 2022 2023 2030 target © Swedbank 9
Slide 10: Assisted meetings and market shares
● Conducted more assisted meetings Latvia ● New business area: Premium Lithuania & Private Banking 300k 25-30% ● One Corporate 25.1% Business in Sweden 265k 23.2% 22.4% ● Improved corporate market 240k shares in Lithuania and Latvia 19.4% 19.7% 20.1% 2022 2023 2025 Q3 Q1 Q3 2030 target 2022 2023 202
Slide 11: Connected customer experience and efficiency
● Connected branches and ● Improved efficiency in the ● Platform saves on average contact centres credit process 18 minutes per interaction1) ● Strive to create a seamless ● Aim to improve availability ● Full launch in Sweden 2024 customer experience and shorten lead times ● Up to 1 million digital
Slide 12: Return on equity target bridge
18.3% ≥15% 13.2% 13.2% RoE Income Costs Credit Capital Capital RoE RoE Income Costs Credit Capital RoE 2021 impair- gene- reduc- 2025 2021 impair- genera- 2023 ments ration tion ments tion © Swedbank 12
Slide 13: Priorities going forward
● Proven business model during transition ● Grow business in home markets to higher rates ● Improve availability and operational excellence ● New organisation in Sweden ● Capital distributions subject to ● Omni-channel communication platform rolled further clarity on capital needs out © Swedbank 13
Slide 14: AML investigations status
● No ongoing AML investigations from Swedish or Baltic authorities ● Ongoing investigations by U.S. authorities – DoJ, SEC and DFS New York © Swedbank 14
Slide 15: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 15
Slide 16: Green advisory, biodiversity and sustainable asset register
Green Advisory Biodiversity ● In collaboration with Hemma, our private customers can now ● Analysing targets in the GBF1 to identify get free energy calculations, advice on how to reduce energy what is most relevant for our operations, consumption and cut energy costs to maximise impact ● In collabo
Slide 17: Carbon neutrality and interim target setting
2050 Net-Zero Banking Alliance Carbon neutrality and interim target setting 2030 targets set and published in November 2022 2040 Climate Action 100+ (Swedbank Robur) Carbon neutral investments by Swedbank Robur1) Member since 2018, cooperation to engage with the largest GHG emitters Partnership for
Slide 18: Financed emissions targets by sector
● Mortgages: reduce the financed emission intensity by 39 per cent (kgCO2e/m2) ● Commercial real estate: reduce the financed emission intensity by 43 per cent (kgCO2e/m2) ● Oil & gas1): reduce the absolute financed emissions by 50 per cent (tCO2e) ● Power generation: reduce the financed emission int
Slide 19: Green and social assets
Social Green buildings assets 1.1 Of which Other1) 32.3bn 2.1 2.6 1% 1% Of which Property upgrade 1.7bn 4.2 Of which Mortgages, Sweden 44.0bn 5.9 8.4 14% 17% Green assets Of which Mortgages, Baltic banking 9.5bn Clean transportation Renewable energy Pollution prevention and control 8% Sustainable ma
Slide 20: Green and social bond issuance
● Organic growth, primarily in real-estate ● Issued first green SEK covered bond in Q3 2024 ● Contribution from green mortgages in the Baltics ● Issued first Nordic social bond in 2023 112 ISIN Green/Social Bond Type Currency Issued, mn Coupon % Issued Maturity 90 XS2343563214 Green SNP EUR 1 000 0.
Slide 21: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 21
Slide 22: Q3 2024 highlights
18.5 19.0 18.1 18.2 19.1 QoQ +5% TOTAL ● Return on equity of INCOME SEK 19.1bn 18.4 per cent Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 ● Cost/Income ratio 0.31 6.4 6.5 5.6 6.2 6.0 QoQ -7% ● Credit impairment ratio 6 bps TOTAL EXPENSES SEK 6.0bn ● CET1 capital ratio 20.4 per cent, buffer 520bps Q3 2023
Slide 23: Q3 2024 income statement
▲ ● Net profit SEK 9.4bn Net interest income 12 229 12 165 1% Net commission income 4 286 4 169 3% ● Cost/Income ratio 0.31 Net gains and losses 1 170 911 28% ● Return on equity Other income 1 461 991 47% 18.4 per cent Total income 19 146 18 237 5% Total expenses 5 986 6 465 -7% ● EPS after dilution
Slide 24: Lending development
QoQ -0.2% QoQ -0.6% SEKbn SEKbn 1 531 1 523 -2 -7 +0 1 799 9 1 799 1 796 -9 -3 Q2 2024 Private Corporate Q3 2024 QoQ +3.3% SEKbn 6 276 268 3 Q2 2024 Sweden 1) Baltic Banking Q3 excl. FX FX Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Private Corporate Q3 2024 1) Sweden including Swedish Banking, Premium and Private Banking, Cor
Slide 25: Deposit development
QoQ -0.7% QoQ -1.4% SEKbn SEKbn 879 867 -6 -7 -7 1 282 6 1 275 1 273 -13 -2 Q2 2024 Private Corporate Q3 2024 QoQ +1.3% SEKbn 403 5 1 408 Q2 2024 Sweden 1) Baltic Banking Q3 excl. FX FX Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Private Corporate Q3 2024 1) Sweden including Swedish Banking, Premium and Private Banking, Corpor
Slide 26: Net interest income
QoQ +0.5% SEKm ● Higher average lending and deposit volumes 43 65 366 89 12 229 12 165 ● SEK 89m from FX, day count and a correction -499 ● Total funding cost decreased -25 in line with lending income Business driven NII ● Gradual roll-in effects on lending Q2 2024 Lending Deposit Margins Treasury F
Slide 27: Net commission income
QoQ +3% SEKm ● Asset management impacted +116 by higher average stock market performance 62 15 48 4 286 4 169 ● Underlying card commissions -9 seasonally higher ● Introduction of new service concept in Latvia – Higher service concepts – Lower card commissions Q2 2024 Cards & Asset Securities & Other
Slide 28: Net gains and losses on financial items
SEKm ● Strong FX and Fixed income sales and trading 32 8 1 170 ● Positive revaluation from 422 funding related swaps 682 26 Client trading Bond inventories Funding Liquidity Other Total NGL (Treasury) portfolio © Swedbank 28
Slide 29: Other income
QoQ +47% SEKm ● Net insurance income +470 benefitted from revaluations in Baltic Banking 43 1 461 162 ● Associates increased due to a 266 credit impairment one-off adjustment in Entercard of 991 SEK 120m Q2 2024 Net insurance Associates Other Q3 2024 © Swedbank 29
Slide 30: Expenses and cost/income ratio
QoQ -7% SEKm ● Lower consultancy costs after front-loading of projects in H1 Underlying expenses C/I ratio ● Lower FTEs 6 411 6 465 ● Seasonality and VAT refund 6 185 5 986 5 562 ● FY 2024 according to plan 0.35 – H2 costs similar to H1 0.34 0.34 (excluding FX) 0.31 – YTD FX SEK 150m 0.30 Q3 2023 Q4
Slide 31: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 31
Slide 32: Credit impairments
SEKm ● 1bp credit impairment ratio YTD ● Remaining post model 337 adjustment buffer of SEK 858m 428 111 271 -84 -426 -95 Macro Rating & stage Post model Individual Net Other Total credit scenarios migrations adjustments assessment repayments impairments and balances © Swedbank 32
Slide 33: Swedish commercial real estate exposure
● Improved market sentiment Q2 2024 disclosures, per cent – Well functioning bond markets 8.4% 8.3% 8.6% 7.8% 8.0% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% – Reduced financing cost ● Weak macro is still impacting – Vacancies Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 – Transaction market still muted Q2 2024 disclosures
Slide 34: Commercial real estate lending by segment
● Focus on strong cash flows Q3 2024, per cent Q3 2024, SEK 247bn in total and collateral ● Continuous dialogue with customers 83 11% ● Average LTV SEK 312bn 79% 104 10% − Property management, 21 53 per cent 39 • Non-residential, 52 per cent Sweden Residential • Residential, 53 per cent Baltics Comm
Slide 35: Property management and real estate exposure by country
Sweden Sweden Estonia Estonia SEK Latvia SEK Latvia 91bn Lithuania 217bn Lithuania Norway Norway Finland Finland Loans carrying Loans carrying amount, SEKbn 91.0 83.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.7 amount, SEKbn 216.9 162.0 14.6 3.8 10.8 20.2 5.5 Average loan-to- Average loan-to- value 53% 53% n.a.1) n.a.1) n.
Slide 36: Loans and credit impairment provisions by stage
Q3 2023 – Q3 2024, SEKbn Q3 2023 – Q3 2024, SEKbn 1 810 1 789 1 798 1 805 1 803 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.5 6.8 100% 5 8 10 10 11 100% 98% 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.4 80% 96% 60% 183 170 173 94% 192 187 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 40% 3.1 92% 90% 20% 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1 623 1 625 1 619 88% 1 590 1 601 0% Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024
Slide 37: Corporate lending by sector
Agriculture, forestry, fishing 3.4% Manufacturing 2.5% ● Corporate lending declined by Public sector and utilities 2.2% SEK 7bn in Sweden but Construction 1.2% increased by SEK 6bn in Baltic Retail and wholesale 2.4% banking Transportation 0.7% Shipping and offshore 0.3% Hotels and restaurants 0.4%
Slide 38: Swedish mortgage underwriting criteria
● Full recourse (very limited debt forgiveness possibilities) Swedbank’s underwriting criteria ● No securitisation (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd – In the repayment ability calculation, the interest party origination rate used is the higher of 6.5 % or the 5Y fixed mortgage interest
Slide 39: Mortgage loan-to-value and past due loans
Q3 2024, private mortgage loans, SEKbn 20 20 16 16 96% of portfolio below 70% LTV ● Average loan-to-value of 12 12 56 per cent 8 8 4 4 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 LTV per cent 2004 - YTD Q3 2024, per cent and SEKm of private
Slide 40: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 40
Slide 41: Capital requirements and buffer
15.2% 20.4% 1.8% 2.6% 19.6% 24.6% 12.2% ● CET1 capital ratio buffer ~520bps1) ~520bps buffer ● Target of 100-300bps remains Pillar 2 Guidance ● REA increased by SEK 10bn to 5.6 Leverage ratio req. & P2G SEK 857.8bn 0.5 (3.5%) 2.5 Capital Conservation Buffer 5.7 0.5 Automatic MDA 1.7 Countercyclical
Slide 42: MREL requirements and eligible liabilities
48.7% ● The National Debt Office Eligible liabilities 11.2% MREL decision for 2024 36.6% - MREL 28.4% (buffer of 12.1%) Market - Subordination requirement Confidence 7.0% 21.3% (buffer of 7.9%) Charge 12.9% Subordinated eligible liabilities ● CBR to be met with own funds at all times (in addition to
Slide 43: Regulatory updates
● New guidelines to be fully ● The SFSA has imposed an add- ● Includes amendments to the phased in by end of 2021 on related to the ongoing review frameworks for calculating according to EBA decision of IRB models in the Pillar 2 credit risk, CVA, market risk and requirement, as part of its SREP ope
Slide 44: CET1 capital ratio development
● CET1 capital ratio of 20.4 per cent ~520bps ● 100-300bps capital buffer 0.6% 0.2% 20.4% buffer target range remains 20.1% -0.5% 15.1% Q2 2024 Profit after Credit risk Other Q3 2024 CET1 capital anticipated requirement dividend © Swedbank 44
Slide 45: Risk exposure amount development
SEKbn ● REA increased by SEK 10bn ● ECB approval of Baltic banking IRB model plan increased credit 19.6 847.9 0.1 857.8 risk by SEK 10bn mitigated by - 9.5 - 0.4 Article 3 release Q2 2024 Credit risk Article 3 Article 458 Market & CVA Q3 2024 (RW-floors) risk © Swedbank 45
Slide 46: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 46
Slide 47: Liquidity reserve, LCR and NSFR
167% Liquidity Coverage Ratio Q3 2024, SEKbn Q3 2024, SEKbn 4 6 101 63 126% 5 277 Net Stable Funding Ratio 219 393 >2Y 287 Survival horizon Cash and balances with central banks SEK EUR USD OTHER Sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks1 Municipalities or public service entities Ex
Slide 48: Balance sheet assets and liabilities
SEKbn Assets SEKbn Liabilities SEKbn Liabilities (comparison) 2 000 2 000 CET1 AT1 + Tier 2 Senior non-preferred debt Lithuania Senior preferred debt Latvia Estonia 1 500 1 500 Other corporate lending, Sweden & other Nordic countries 1 000 1 000 Deposits Other private, Sweden Swedish 500 mortgage lo
Slide 49: Deposits and loan-to-deposit ratio
Transaction accounts On-demand savings Q3 2024, SEKbn Q3 2024, SEKbn Term savings +38% 702 Private 726 Corporate 527 540 109 119 1 259 1 298 1 230 1 273 46 1 131 41 920 954 49 320 335 48 438 444 273 272 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q3 Q4 2023 Q3 2024 Q4 2023 Q3 2024 2024 Private SME 200 LTD-ratio C
Slide 50: Funding profile and maturities
SEKbn 1400 Strong funding profile ● LCR 167% Outstanding volumes 1200 Q4 2023 Q3 2024 ● NSFR 126% 1000 800 ● Issued SEK 113bn1) of long- 600 term funding YTD 2024 400 200 0 Covered bonds Senior SNP Short-term Deposits preferred programmes SEKbn Issued, long-term debt SEKbn Maturity profile LT-fundin
Slide 51: Credit ratings
● On 20 September 2024, S&P revised the outlook on Swedbank AB to positive from stable and affirmed the 'A+/A-1' long and short-term issuer credit ratings on Swedbank and its core subsidiary Swedbank Mortgage AB. The positive outlook is a reflection that while residual risks remain for the bank, pro
Slide 52: Funding programmes and formats
● Senior preferred, senior non-preferred and covered bond format ● Major / opportunistic currencies ● Bullet format, FRN or Fixed ● EUR 20m equivalent minimum size ● Listing is optional ● Program formats available: – Senior unsecured debt (preferred/non-preferred): GMTN, potentially USD 144a format,
Slide 53: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 53
Slide 54: Cover pool overview
Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation (www.coveredbondlabel.com ) Rating, S&P / Moody’s AAA / Aaa Repayment structure 7 Total pool size SEK 1 108.2bn – Amortising 77% Geographic distribution Sweden 100% – Interest only 23% Current OC-level 220% Weighted average seaso
Slide 55: Cover pool loan types and geographic distribution
Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation (www.coveredbondlabel.com ) Geographical distribution, Sweden, per cent 30 Sep Type of loans 30 Sep (based on loan volume) 2024 (based on loan volume) 2024 North 6.8 Residentials 92.2 Norrbotten county (BD) 1.3 of which Single-fa
Slide 56: Cover pool LTV distribution
Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ● Weighted average LTV on property level 52% (www.coveredbondlabel.com ) LTV distribution per property1 LTV distribution by volume1, 2 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 00-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70
Slide 57: Weighted average LTV per property type
Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation (www.coveredbondlabel.com ) WA LTV per property type1 Percentage of the pool Average LTV per loan type 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Substitute Single-family Tenant owner Tenant owner Multi-family Comm
Slide 58: Over-collateralisation
Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation (www.coveredbondlabel.com ) ● Current OC-level of 220% 240% Q3 2024 ● 2% legal minimum requirement 220% 200% Min req. 2% ● Can withstand a severe house 180% price drop and still be able to Over-collateralisation 160% issue AAA-ra
Slide 59: Swedish covered bond legislation
● The Covered Bond Act entered into force on July 1, 2004, with most recent amendments effective as per July 8, 2022, and is over-sighted by the Swedish FSA. Its main characteristics are: − Dual recourse to the issuer and cover pool − Dynamic, regulated pool of assets, frequently monitored by the Sw
Slide 60: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 60
Slide 61: Swedish economy key indicators
Key economic indicators1, 2023-2026 Most recent 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F Real GDP (calendar adjusted) 0.5 (Q2) 0.1 0.3 2.6 3.0 • Kingdom of Sweden rated CPI growth, average 1.6 (Sep) 8.6 3.0 1.1 1.7 Aaa/AAA/AAA CPIF growth, average 1.1 (Sep) 6.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Unemployment rate (15-74), % of labor force
Slide 62: Inflation, krona, lending growth and interest rates
Inflation trending down Weaker krona Headline inflation (CPI) and with fixed interest rate (CPIF) Krona (SEK), US dollar (USD), euro (EUR) and trade-weighted 14 index (KIX) 12 135 12 4 10 11 130 3 8 125 10 6 2 120 9 4 1 115 2 8 110 0 0 7 105 -2 -1 6 100 2020 2021 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 C
Slide 63: Baltic economies key indicators
Key economic indicators1, 2023-2025 Most recent 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F Real GDP Estonia -1.0 (Q2) -3.0 -0.6 1.5 2.5 Latvia -0.5 (Q2) -0.3 0.9 2.6 2.9 Ratings CPI growth, annual rate Lithuania Estonia 1.4 (Q2) 3.0 (Sep) -0.3 9.2 2.2 3.7 2.8 4.4 2.5 3.5 • Republic of Estonia: A1/AA-/A+ Latvia 1.4 (Sep
Slide 64: Baltic economic sentiment
Economic sentiment Confidence indicators, sa, index represents deviations from long term average (=0) Estonia Latvia Lithuania 27 20 20 20 30 17 20 10 10 10 20 7 10 0 0 10 0 -3 0 0 -10 -10 -13 -10 -10 -10 -20 -20 -23 -20 -20 -20 -30 -30 -33 -30 -30 -30 -43 -40 -40 -40 -50 -40 -53 -40 -50 -50 Sep-21
Slide 65: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 65
Slide 66: Swedish housing price developments
Price developments flats and single-family homes Valueguard index (2005 Jan = 100) 350 300 250 200 150 100 Annual growth 2009 2010 rates (in percent) 2012 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 24 Composite Flats Houses 14 4 -6 -16 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20
Slide 67: Housing prices and transactions
● Seasonally adjusted prices increased in September 2024 ● Housing market transactions are trending up, but still below recent years’ levels Housing market transactions Housing prices Seasonally adjusted housing prices: Sep 2022 - Sep 2024 Housing Turnover Number of transaction, ∆ rolling 12m averag
Slide 68: Household borrowing and debt service
● Household borrowing decline bottoms out ● Household debt service in 2023 highest since 2008 Mortgage loan growth, housing prices and interest rate Household interest expenses percent of disposable income percent index 18 8.0 320 16 7.0 14 300 6.0 12 280 5.0 10 4.0 260 8 3.0 240 6 2.0 220 4 1.0 0.0
Slide 69: Population growth and household balance sheets
● Population grows slows sharply, while completed housing rose in 2023 – New starts drop sharply in 2024 ● Households adjust indebtedness levels to higher rates Population growth slows Strong household balance sheets Completed housing and population growth, no. of persons and housing, 1978-2022 Hous
Slide 70: Contents
Contents 1. This is Swedbank 2. Sustainability 3. Financial results 4. Asset quality 5. Capital considerations 6. Liquidity and funding 7. Cover pool data 8. Swedish and Baltic economy 9. Swedish housing and mortgage market 10. Appendix © Swedbank 70
Slide 71: ESG ratings
As per Q3 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index1 77 CDP C EY SHE Index Sweden1 82 FTSE4Good ESG Rating 4.2 ISS Corporate Rating C+ (Prime) MSCI ESG Rating AA Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating 22.0 1 Score in 2023 © Swedbank 71
Slide 72: Macro scenarios and probability weightings
30 September 2024 Positive scenario 2024 2025 2026 Baseline scenario 2024 2025 2026 Negative scenario 2024 2025 2026 ● Probability weightings Sweden GDP (annual % change) 0.5 3.1 3.2 0.5 2.6 3.0 0.0 -4.4 0.8 ● 66.6 per cent for Unemployment (%)1 House prices (annual % 8.3 8.4 7.8 8.3 8.4 7.9 8.4 9.9
Slide 73: IFRS 9 loan staging
Initial recognition, or no Significant increase in Evidence of impairment significant increase of credit risk credit risk Stage 3 loans Stage 1 loans Stage 2 loans Impairment amounting to Impairment amounting to lifetime expected credit lifetime expected credit losses Impairment amounting to losses
Slide 74: Funding programmes and limits
100% owned Program Limit Program Limit Long Term Long Term Global MTN USD 40bn Domestic Benchmark CB Unlimited*** USD Senior (144a / Reg.S) USD 15bn EMTN CB EUR 25bn AUD Senior** AUD 10bn Norwegian Benchmark CB Unlimited*** NSV (stand alone doc.) AUD Covered bonds** AUD 10bn Registered CB (stand alo
Slide 75: Long-term funding issuance table
ISIN Product Tenor Currency Amount, mn Type Spread Value date Maturity date XS2572496623 SNP 5.5Y EUR 750 Fixed MS+135 January 11, 2023 July 11, 2028 XS2580715147 AT1 PNC5.5 USD 500 Fixed 7.625% February 23, 2023 (call) September 17, 2028 ● The table excludes volumes XS2607781882 CB 5.25Y EUR 1 000
Slide 76: Investor relations contacts and financial calendar
Annie Ho Magnus Alvesson Mattias Danielsson Q4 Year-end report 23 Jan 2025 Head of Investor Relations Equity & Credit Ratings Equity Q1 Interim report 29 Apr 2025 Mobile: +46 703 43 78 15 Mobile: +46 706 10 33 41 Mobile: +46 702 11 91 80 Q2 Interim report 17 Jul 2025 annie.ho@swedbank.com magnus.alv