Yara International ASA · OSL:YAR
Yara International ASA — Carnegie lunch presentation (January 2024)
12 slides from Yara International ASA's conference presentation, Jan 9, 2024
Slide 1: Market update January 2024
XG YARA Knowledge grows Market update January 2024
Slide 2: Slow urea market, fob Egypt assessed at USD335/mt, limited activity
Slow urea market, fob Egypt assessed at USD335/mt, limited activity 500 450 400 USD/ton 350 300 250 200 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Egypt(Europe)
Slide 3: Urea export from China – strong recently, but currently restricted
Urea export from China – strong recently, but currently restricted 6000 2021 2022 2023 5000 4000 kt product 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 4: European natural gas (TTF) – forward curve flat around USD11/millbtu through Q3
10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Jan 2021 Feb USD/millbtu Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep USD11/millbtu through Q3 Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2024 Feb Mar Apr May Forward Jan 5 Jun Jul Aug Sep
Slide 5: Food prices sliding through 2023
Food prices sliding through 2023
Slide 6: Grain inventories outside China, seen increasing for the first season in a long time
Grain inventories outside China, seen increasing for the first season in a long time (July 23 – June 24 season), modestly Grain stocks – excluding China Days of consumption in stock Mill. tonnes Days 380 66 360 64 62 340 Dec 60 320 Nov May 58 300 56 280 54 260 52 240 50 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Slide 7: Peak of capacity additions is behind us
Peak of capacity additions is behind us Global urea capacity additions ex. China 1,2 (mt) India Russia Iran Algeria USA Nigeria Australia Others Production 6.7 6.2 5.5 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.2 3.2 2.7 2.0% consumption growth2 1.0 0.4 0.3 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1) Urea pro
Slide 8: Apparent urea consumption ex. China – rebounding in 2023
Apparent urea consumption ex. China – rebounding in 2023 High prices needed in 21- 22 to ration demand as supply was restricted 140 350 Prices: 249 665 135 519 130 125 million tons urea 120 115 The trend from 2013-2023 shows a growth rate of 1.9%/year 110 105 100 95 estimate 90 2013 2014 2015 2016 2
Slide 9: Urea supply outside China decreased by 0.9% (1.1 million tons) in 2022
Urea supply outside China decreased by 0.9% (1.1 million tons) in 2022, to 128.9 million tons 1.1 mt less urea produced in 2022, making it another year of consumption being held back by lack of supply, similar to 2021 India with significant new Curtailments in Europe capacity driven by high gas pric
Slide 10: Some pick-up in US urea and nitrogen imports in October, but a lot remains
Some pick-up in US urea and nitrogen imports in October, but a lot remains The total should end up somewhere between the previous seasons. Not as strong as 21/22 due to stronger domestic production. But a lot more than 22/23, large carry-over inventories starting that season.
Slide 11: DAP fob US Gulf
DAP fob US Gulf USD/tonne 1400 1200 2022 1000 2021 800 600 2023 400 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Average of publications
Slide 12: Upgrading margins from rock to DAP in Morocco – rebounding to historic average
Upgrading margins from rock to DAP in Morocco (proxy calculation) – rebounding to historic average USD/tonne 400 350 2022 2021 300 250 200 150 100 50 2023 0 -50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Average of publications, DAP fob Morocco – (1.43*Rock fob Morocco + 0.46*S fob Arab
Yara International — Carnegie lunch presentation (January 2024) on 6ix