Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — U.S. Poultry and Egg Association 2011 Grain Forecast and Economic Outlook Conference
30 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Nov 9, 2011
Slide 1: Phosphate Outlook
U.S. Poultry and Egg Association 2011 Grain Forecast and Economic Outlook Conference Atlanta Airport Hilton Hotel November 9, 2011 Dr. Michael R. Rahm Vice President Market and Strategic Analysis The Mosaic Company Phosphate Outlook Exhibit 99.1
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda The Mosaic Company Agricultural Outlook Phosphate Outlook - Near Term - Long Term
Slide 3: The Mosaic Company: We help the world grow the food it needs
The Mosaic Company We help the world grow the food it needs
Slide 4: The Mosaic Company: History
The Mosaic Company: History Formed on October 22, 2004 Combination of IMC Global and the Crop Nutrition business of Cargill Deep roots in agriculture and crop nutrition Largest phosphate and potash producer in the world Leading feed phosphate producer in the United states Innovation core competency
Slide 5: Mosaic – The Largest P&K Company
0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 Mosaic PotashCorp Uralkali Belaruskali OCP Israel Chemicals K+S Yuntianhua GCT Agrium mil tonnes nutrient World's Largest P&K Producers by 5-year average production (2006-2010) K2O P2O5 Mosaic – The Largest P&K Company Global Operations and Distribution: Largest combined P&K producer
Slide 6: Mosaic Feed Products
Mosaic Feed Products
Slide 7: Introducing the Next Generation of Feed Grade Phosphate
Introducing the Next Generation of Feed Grade Phosphate Introducing the Next Generation of Feed Grade Phosphate
Slide 8: Nexfos granulated feed-grade monodicalcium phosphate
Granulated feed-grade monodicalcium phosphate for animal and poultry feed High 19% phosphorus content provides flexibility and economy in formulations Available for delivery November 2011 The First Innovation in Feed-Grade Phosphate in decades! • The unique Nexfos formulation offers increased effici
Slide 9: Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Outlook
Slide 10: A bumper crop is needed in 2012/13
A bumper crop is needed in 2012/13 10/11E 11/12F 12/13F Mil Tonnes World Grain & Oilseed Stocks Historical 2012/13 Range 2012/13 Medium Scenario Source: USDA and Mosaic Grain and Oilseed Scenario Assumptions Low Medium High Harvested Area Change -0.25% 0.00% 0.25% Yield Deviation from Trend * Larges
Slide 11: Strong acreage response but below trend yields
Strong acreage response but below trend yields 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 MT Ha Mil Ha World Grain and Oilseed Area and Yields Harvested Area Yield Trend Source: USDA
Slide 12: Corn market is tightest
Corn market is tightest 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Percent Mil Tonnes World Corn Stocks Stock Pct of Use Source: USDA 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Pct of Use Bil Bu U.S. Corn Stocks Billion Bu Pct of Use Source: USDA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Percent Mil Tonnes World S
Slide 13: The Food Story – Connecting the Dots
2 3 1 1. Population growth and increases in per capital GDP are expected to generate steady and predictable increases in global grain and oilseed (food) demand. 2. Farmers around the globe will need to harvest record area and produce yields that exceed the 30-year trend in order to meet projected de
Slide 14: Global demand prospects are outstanding
Global demand prospects are outstanding 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0 11/12F 13/14F 15/16F Mil Tonnes Source: IFA May 2011 World Nutrient Use 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 11/12F 13/14F 15/16F Mil Tonnes N Source: IFA May 2011 World Nitrogen Use
Slide 15: Near Term Phosphate Outlook: Outstanding Demand – Uncertain Supply
Near Term Phosphate Outlook: Outstanding Demand – Uncertain Supply
Slide 16: Phosphate prices continue to trend upward
Phosphate prices continue to trend upward $ MT DAP Prices fob Tampa Vessel Source: Fertecon
Slide 17: Prices driven in part by cost pressures
Prices driven in part by cost pressures $ LT Sulphur Prices c&f Tampa Source: Green Markets $ MT Ammonia Prices c&f Tampa Source: Fertecon $ MT Phosphate Rock Prices fob Morocco Source: Green Markets Current raw materials costs Current Estimates $ Tonne MT Per Unit Cost U.S. Gulf MT DAP Cost MT DAP
Slide 18: Surging global phosphate shipments
Surging global phosphate shipments 60-61 62-64 11F 12F Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP World Processed Phosphate Shipments Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Slide 19: Broad-based demand growth
Broad-based demand growth 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 11F 12F Mil Tonnes Latin America Processed Phosphate Import Demand Other Chile Mexico Argentina Brazil Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic 11F 12F Mil Tonnes Asia+Oceania Processed Phosphate Import Demand Other Vietnam Japan Australia China
Slide 20: NA phosphate use and shipments
NA phosphate use and shipments 8.5 9.3 6.1 7.9 9.8 9.3 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.5 12.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 11F 12F Mil Tons Product Mil Tons P O NA Phosphate Use and DAP/MAP/TSP Shipments Phosphate Use Total Shipments Source: AAPFCO, TFI, IFA and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 21: Feed phosphate sales a different story
Feed phosphate sales a different story 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Mil ST Source: TFI U.S. Feed Phosphate Sales DF Rock Monocal Dical Demand Drivers Phytase DDGS Imports
Slide 22: Betting on China -- how many exports?
Betting on China -- how many exports? 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 11F 12F Mil Tonnes China Processed Phosphate Export Supply TSP MAP DAP Source: Fertecon, IFA, China Customs and Mosaic
Slide 23: Betting on Ma'aden -- how many exports?
Betting on Ma’aden -- how many exports? 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 11F 12F Mil Tonnes Saudi Arabia DAP Export Supply Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Slide 24: U.S. plants running at high and steady rates
U.S. plants running at high and steady rates 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun % Mil Tons U.S. Phosphoric Acid Production and Op. Rates MIN MAX Range (04/05-08/09) 09/10 Production 09/10 Op. Rates Source: TFI and Mosaic 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct No
Slide 25: Producer stocks remain at low levels
Producer stocks remain at low levels 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Mil Tons U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Stocks Source: TFI
Slide 26: Factors to Watch
Factors to Watch Agricultural commodity prices Raw materials costs and availability Export supply from North Africa Ramp up of Ma’aden’s production U.S. production Swings in distribution pipeline inventories Price expectations and market sentiment
Slide 27: Long Term Phosphate Outlook: Will Supply Keep Pace with Demand?
Long Term Phosphate Outlook: Will Supply Keep Pace with Demand?
Slide 28: World phosphate shipments and operating rates
Producer stocks remain at low levels World Phosphate Shipments Million Tonnes DAP/MAP/MES/TSP 74% 66% 80% 68% 79% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% World Acid Operating Rates 66% 82% 75% 84% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% World Rock Operating Rates Based on expectation for significant increases in capacity from Morocco, Sau
Slide 29: Available online at mosaicco.com/products.htm
Available online at http://www.mosaicco.com/products.htm
Slide 30: Phosphate Outlook Thank You!
Phosphate Outlook Thank You! U.S. Poultry and Egg Association 2011 Grain Forecast and Economic Outlook Conference Atlanta Airport Hilton Hotel November 9, 2011 Dr. Michael R. Rahm Vice President Market and Strategic Analysis The Mosaic Company
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