Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Technical Presentation (March 2020)
56 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s technical presentation, Mar 17, 2020
Slide 1: Today's Agenda
Today’s Agenda 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Agenda 10:00 AM-11:15 AM IRP Overview 11:30 AM-12:00 PM Resource Evaluation 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting Welcome! 1
Slide 2: A Few Reminders
A Few Reminders ▪ We kindly request everyone to mute their lines until asked to speak later in the day. ▪ Participants should be able to see a video stream of most presenters if you are logged into the webinar. ▪ Participants who are using the Go-to-webinar platform are requested to please submit qu
Slide 3: National Landscape of Utility Planning
National Landscape of Utility Planning March 17, 2020
Slide 4: What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Why does it matter?
What is an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and Why does it matter? ▪ An IRP is a “roadmap” that identifies strategies for a utility to meet future energy and demand requirements while considering the associated risks and benefits to customers. ▪ An IRP identifies a cost-effective set of supply and de
Slide 5: Majority of States in the US Require an IRP Filing
Majority of States in the US Require an IRP Filing ▪ 39 states across the U.S. have requirements for filing IRP or long- term plans. Source: 1) Integrated Resource Planning Slides (June 11, 2019), Regulatory Assistance Project; 2) ICF Analysis 5
Slide 6: IRP Process Covers Comprehensive Aspects of Planning
IRP Process Covers Comprehensive Aspects of Planning Setting IRP Objectives Load Forecasting & Evaluating Resource Need Conducting Sensitivity Analysis & Selecting Preferred Portfolio Feedback For Next IRP Cycle Public Review & PUC Approval Executing Action Plans & Acquiring Resources Monitor and Ev
Slide 7: Emerging Trends in IRP
Emerging Trends in IRP 7
Slide 8: Utility Resource Planning Trends
Utility Resource Planning Trends 2020 Move to Clean Expanding Stakeholders Integration Energy Technologies Matter ▪ Increasing trend ▪ States, localities, ▪ Increased emphasis ▪ Accounting for toward receiving and corporate on new and distribution stakeholder input positions moving emerging planning
Slide 9: Renewable Energy Goals are Increasingly Reflected in IRPs
Renewable Energy Goals are Increasingly Reflected in IRPs 2050 carbon free goal 2017 IRP 50% CES by 2030 50% by 2030; net-zero by 2050 Source: 1) ICF Analysis; 2) Climate Strategy Assessments for the U.S. Electric Power Industry 2019 Update, Ceres 9
Slide 10: Utilities are Studying Energy Storage in their IRPs
Utilities are Studying Energy Storage in their IRPs Utility Pilot or Selected Selected Batteries ▪ Current energy storage is not Research Phase Main Portfolio Alternative Portfolio Screened seen as fully economically Arizona Public √ √ √ justifiable, but the potential to Service relieve congestion a
Slide 11: Analyzing and Planning for Demand Response in an IRP
Analyzing and Planning for Demand Response in an IRP ▪ The two most common approaches to treat Demand Response (DR) in IRPs are: a) DR is considered as a demand-side resource that contributes to peak reduction; b) DR is evaluated through the resource-planning model and can compete with supply-side r
Slide 12: Emergence of Integrated Distribution Planning
Emergence of Integrated Distribution Planning ▪ Distribution planning is focused on evaluating physical and operational changes required to local grid. ▪ Beyond interest in affordability and reliability, common drivers for a distribution system planning process include improving system efficiency, e
Slide 13: IRP Process in the Carolinas
IRP Process in the Carolinas 13
Slide 14: Duke Energy's IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable and Increasingly Clean
Duke Energy’s IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable and Increasingly Clean ▪ These three pillars guide Duke Energy’s planning process and are subject to state and federal regulatory and legislative requirements: ▪ State regulatory commissions Clean / ▪ State legislation Sustainable Reliable ▪ FERC: Federa
Slide 15: IRP Process Overview
IRP Process Overview Growth in ▪ Changes in Load Forecast Customer ▪ Impacts of Energy Efficiency (EE), INPUTS Consumption electrification and rooftop solar ▪ Plant Retirement Resource Retirements ▪ Purchase Power Contract Expiration • MODELING Production Cost Model • Expansion Plan Model • Resource
Slide 16: Carolinas IRP Development Process
Carolinas IRP Development Process ▪DEP/DEC IRP Requirements ▪ With regulated service territories in two states, DEC and DEP each have a single plan for both NC and SC that addresses the individual considerations in both state jurisdictions. – Operations within the DEC and DEP systems are optimized t
Slide 17: Duke Energy's IRP Aligns with the Nationally Emerging Trends
Duke Energy’s IRP Aligns with the Nationally Emerging Trends • In the 2019 IRP, Duke Energy considered the impacts of SC Act 62, SC Environmental Act 236 and NC HB 589 and NC REPS on renewable generation expansions in NC and SC, including Duke Energy territories. The 2019 Regulation IRPs also suppor
Slide 18: NC – Current and New Regulatory Requirements
NC – Current and New Regulatory Requirements NC R8-60 General Requirements* New 2020 IRP Requirements* ▪ 15 year forecast of load, capacity and reserves New studies: ▪ Comprehensive analysis of all resource options 1. Reliability Assessment Study (Resource Adequacy Study) ▪ Assessment of Purchased P
Slide 19: SC – Act 62 and IRP Requirements
SC – Act 62 and IRP Requirements 2019 SC IRP ( historically, an IRP has not been a Act 62 legislatively mandates regulatory or legislative requirement in SC, however, Duke Energy chose to proactively submit) following to be included in 2020 IRP* ▪ Long-term forecast of utility’s sales and peak deman
Slide 20: IRP Stakeholder Activities
IRP Stakeholder Activities March 17 – IRP Forum #1 (more to come) 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM Detailed topic discussions 2020 IRP Engagement Timeline Pre-Engagement Intervenor Comments, Survey, Listening Sessions IRP 101 March 10 IRP Forum #1 March 17 – Virtual Session Survey available immediately after webi
Slide 21: Coming Next
Coming Next 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Timeline 11:30 AM-12:00 PM Resource Evaluation 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting 21
Slide 22: IRP Forum
IRP Forum 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANS DUKE ENERGY CAROLINAS & DUKE ENERGY PROGRESS March 17, 2020
Slide 23: A Few Reminders
A Few Reminders • Please mute your audio. If you are participating via phone, you may unmute your line to ask a question when directed by the moderator to do so. • Participants joined to the webinar should be able to see a video stream of most presenters. • Participants who are using the Go-to-webin
Slide 24: Welcome!
Welcome! 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Timeline 11:30 AM-12:00 PM Resource Evaluation 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting 24
Slide 25: Resource Evaluation
Resource Evaluation Topic Discussion Session 1 - 11:30 AM to 12:00 PM 25
Slide 26: Determining the Cost-Effective Resource Mix
Determining the Cost- Effective Resource Mix Capacity Expansion and Hourly Production Cost Modeling ▪ Cost-effective (lowest expected cost subject to constraints) ▪ Reliable (adequate to meet expected demand) Considerations ▪ Load Forecast ▪ Total energy and peak demand adjusted for Energy Efficienc
Slide 27: What are the Key Data Sources?
What are the Key Data Sources? Inputs Source Load Discussed in load forecasting section Existing Generation Duke Energy Internal Engineering New Traditional Generation Burns and McDonnell New Renewables and Navigant Storage Fundamentals from IHS Markit and Fuels market information 27
Slide 28: Factors Impacting Resource Evaluation For 2020 IRP
Factors Impacting Resource Evaluation For 2020 IRP Coal Retirement NC Governor’s Duke Energy’s Analysis Climate Plan Climate Goals Future Evaluation Diversity of of Emerging Valuing Storage Variable Energy Technologies Resources 28
Slide 29: Questions?
Questions? • Please submit your questions and comments in the Questions box on your Go-To -Webinar control panel. • Questions from the phone will be taken at the end of the session. • Remember to keep your phone muted unless speaking. 29
Slide 30: Thank you and stay tuned!
Thank you and stay tuned! 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Timeline 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting Email: IRP-engagement@duke-energy.com 30
Slide 31: Carbon Reduction in the IRP
Carbon Reduction in the IRP Topic Discussion Session 1 – 12:00 PM to 12:30 PM 31
Slide 32: Welcome!
Welcome! 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Timeline 11:30 AM-12:00 PM Resource Evaluation 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting 32
Slide 33: Carbon Policy Evaluation
Carbon Policy Evaluation A range of carbon trajectories will be evaluated in the 2020 IRP ▪ Duke Energy’s Climate Strategy will be a central theme ▪ Clear line of sight to achieving at least 50% CO2 reduction by 2030 ▪ Robust discussion within the IRP document of emerging technologies that will be r
Slide 34: Current Process for Evaluating Carbon Reduction
Current Process for Evaluating Carbon Reduction ▪ Historically, the IRP evaluated multiple resource portfolios under three carbon futures ▪ No CO2 Constraint ▪ Base CO2 Constraint ▪ High CO2 Constraint * ▪ The CO2 emissions of each portfolio were presented and *Figure A-3 from 2018 DEC and DEP filed
Slide 35: Coal Plant Retirement Analysis
Coal Plant Retirement Analysis ▪ The NCUC is requiring Duke to perform coal plant retirement analysis in the 2020 IRP: ▪ Depreciated book life is a proxy for retirement dates in the IRP ▪ Retirements were evaluated in support of recent DEP & DEC rate case filings in North Carolina ▪ Condition to mai
Slide 36: Questions?
Questions? • Please submit your questions and comments in the Questions box on your Go-To -Webinar control panel. • Questions from the phone will be taken at the end of the session. • Remember to keep your phone muted unless speaking. 36
Slide 37: Thank you and stay tuned!
Thank you and stay tuned! Coming up next: 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting Email: IRP-engagement@duke-energy.com 37
Slide 38: Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency Topic Discussion Session 4 - 12:30 PM to 1:00 PM 38
Slide 39: Welcome!
Welcome! 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Timeline 11:30 AM-12:00 PM Resource Evaluation 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting 39
Slide 40: EE and DSM Program Offerings
EE and DSM Program Offerings Residential Customer Programs Non-Residential Customer Programs Energy Efficiency (EE) Energy Efficiency ▪ Energy Assessments ▪ Non-Residential Smart $aver® Prescriptive ▪ Energy Efficient Appliances and Devices ▪ Non-Residential Smart $aver® Custom ▪ Energy Efficiency E
Slide 41: 2020 Market Potential Study
2020 Market Potential Study ▪ A Market Potential Study (MPS) performed by Nexant is currently underway. Final Reports are expected in mid-April. ▪ The DSM Collaborative has been involved in the progress of the MPS since the effort began last Fall and interim, preliminary results have been presented
Slide 42: EE Forecast Methodology
EE Forecast Methodology Annual kWh savings projections The long-term portion of the IRP from the Company’s five-year EE EE forecast (years 2030-35) will program plan will serve as the use the annual kWh projections first five-years of the IRP EE from the 2020 Nexant Market savings forecast (2020-24)
Slide 43: Demand Response Forecast Methodology
Demand Response Forecast Methodology ▪ Annual kW savings projections from the Company’s five-year Demand Response program plan will serve as the first five-years of the IRP DR savings forecast (2020-24). ▪ Savings during the remaining portion of the IRP forecast period will be provided by the Compan
Slide 44: Questions?
Questions? • Please submit your questions and comments in the Questions box on your Go-To -Webinar control panel. • Questions from the phone will be taken at the end of the session. • Remember to keep your phone muted unless speaking. 44
Slide 45: Thank you and stay tuned!
Thank you and stay tuned! Coming up next: 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting Email: IRP-engagement@duke-energy.com 45
Slide 46: Load Forecasting
Load Forecasting Topic Discussion Session 4 - 1:00 PM to 1:30 PM 46
Slide 47: Welcome!
Welcome! 2020 IRP Stakeholder Session Timeline 11:30 AM-12:00 PM Resource Evaluation 12:00 AM-12:30 PM Carbon Reduction in the IRP 12:30 PM – 1:00 PM Energy Efficiency 1:00 PM – 1:30 PM Load Forecasting 47
Slide 48: Load Forecasting Economic Assumptions
Load Forecasting Economic Assumptions National and state economic output trends • Positive relationship Electricity prices • Negative relationship Demographic and labor trends • Positive Relationship 48
Slide 49: Weather, Renewable and Energy Efficiency (EE) Projections
Weather, Renewable and Energy Efficiency (EE)Projections Weather Federally PV / EV / UEE 30-year Mandated EE Solar (PV) weather normal Residential and Electric Vehicles (EV) for energy and Commercial end-use demand intensity survey Utility Energy forecasts data Efficiency (UEE) 49
Slide 50: Load Forecasting Model Portfolio
Load Forecasting Model Portfolio ▪ Residential and nonresidential customers served directly by Company ▪ Approximately 30 customer, energy, and peak models between DEC and Retail DEP ▪ Company does not serve customers directly but is responsible for reliability and capacity Wholesale ▪ Approximately
Slide 51: Load Forecasting Methodology: System Sales
Load Forecasting Methodology: System Sales Retail and wholesale history Economics, weather, price Metrix System Energy ND/LT Forecast Federal EE, EV PV, UEE ▪ Software: Itron’s Metrix ND and Metrix LT ▪ Traditional econometric and end-use models determine the historical relationship between system s
Slide 52: Load Forecasting Methodology: System Peaks
Load Forecasting Methodology: System Peaks Retail and wholesale peak history Peak weather, sample meter demand data Metrix System Peak ND/LT Forecast Estimated energy model coefficients at time of peak ▪ Software: Itron’s Metrix ND and Metrix LT ▪ Traditional econometric and end-use models determine
Slide 53: Summer or Winter Peaking?
Summer or Winter Peaking? -Load definition changes -Natural Gas Availability -Solar Summer Peaking Winter Peaking Changes in residential, commercial, and industrial mix, combined with the availability of substitute energy sources, can be key drivers for peaks to switch from summer to winter, and vic
Slide 54: Net Metering and Electric Vehicle Methodology
Net Metering and Electric Vehicle Methodology ▪ Process: ▪ Net metering (NEM) and electric vehicle (EV) projections are separate forecasts, inserted into the load forecast. ▪ At a high level, customer adoption is forecast and an hourly profile applied. ▪ NEM projections are produced via Itron’s Metr
Slide 55: Questions?
Questions? • Please submit your questions and comments in the Questions box on your Go-To -Webinar control panel. • Questions from the phone will be taken at the end of the session. • Remember to keep your phone muted unless speaking. 55
Slide 56: IRP Engagement: Key Dates
IRP Engagement: Key Dates 2020 IRP Engagement Timeline Pre-Engagement Intervenor Comments, Survey, Listening Sessions IRP 101 March 10 IRP Forum #1 March 17 – Virtual Session Survey available immediately after webinar; Send Us Feedback e-mail us at IRP-Engagement@duke-energy.com IRP Forum #2 April 1