Aib Group Plc · EURONEXT:A5G

Aib — Investor Presentation (May 2024)

14 slides from Aib's investor presentation, May 2024

  1. Slide 1: The Irish Economic Update: Slower growth but inflation remains in decline

    The Irish Economic Update: Slower growth but inflation remains in decline May 2024 1

  2. Slide 2: Irish economy slowed in 2023, but domestic economy robust

    Irish economy slowed in 2023, but domestic economy robust % Modified* Final Domestic Demand  GDP increased by 9% in 2022, and fell 3.2% in 2023 (4 QTR Moving Average, % Yr-on-Yr) 12  Surge in FDI, big jump in pharma & ICT output, key factors 8 in rapid growth in 2021-22 4  Normalisation of Pharma

  3. Slide 3: Exports weakened sharply in 2023 after very strong 2021-22

    Exports weakened sharply in 2023 after very strong 2021-22  Ireland is a very open economy – exports, driven by Export Destinations 2023 large scale FDI, are a huge part of economy  IDA reported record FDI in 2021 and again in 2022, Rest of World 20% with continuing strong inflows in 2023  Pharma

  4. Slide 4: Survey indicators consistent with continued growth in 2024

    Survey indicators consistent with continued growth in 2024 AIB Irish Mfg and Services PMIs BNP Paribas Irish Construction PMI 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 Manufacturing 30 30 20 Services 20 10 10 0 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Source: S&P Global Sour

  5. Slide 5: Early 2024 data point to continued economic growth

    Early 2024 data point to continued economic growth  Preliminary Estimate shows GDP rose by 1.1% in Q1 2024  Having registered a 22-month high of 52.2 in February, the manufacturing PMI declined to 47.6 in April  Services PMI registered fastest rise in ten months in march and remained in expansion

  6. Slide 6: Unemployment rate falls to very low level, inflation easing

    Unemployment rate falls to very low level, inflation easing % Employment (YoY, %) Unemployment Rate 18 8.0 15 7.5 Private 12 7.0 9 Total 6.5 6 6.0 3 5.5 0 Public 5.0 -3 -6 4.5 -9 4.0 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Q4 2023 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Source: CSO

  7. Slide 7: Marked deceleration in house price inflation

    Marked deceleration in house price inflation % National House Price Inflation %  House prices declined sharply, by 55% from 2007-2013. 3.0 2.5 18.0 15.0 Prices have fully recovered - back above 2007 peak level 2.0 12.0  Low supply, remote working, strong public/institutional 1.5 9.0 demand, enhanc

  8. Slide 8: Public & private sector balance sheets in robust shape

    Public & private sector balance sheets in robust shape Irish Household Savings Ratio Irish Household Debt Ratio % % (% of Disposible Income) 35 220 30 200 25 180 20 160 15 140 10 120 5 100 0 80 Q4 2003 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4 2015 Q4 2017 Q4 2019 Q4 2021 Q4 2023 Q4 2002 Q4 2005 Q4

  9. Slide 9: Strong economy leads to large budget surpluses

    Strong economy leads to large budget surpluses  Budget deficits in 2020 and 2021 owing to COVID  General Government Balance (% GNI*) Tax revenues rose very strongly across the board in 6 2021-22; up 21.5% in 2022 and 20% in 2021 4  Budget target was a deficit of €8bn for 2022, but a 2 0 surplus o

  10. Slide 10: Economy moves to slower growth path, but in good shape

    Economy moves to slower growth path, but in good shape  Continuing global headwinds and capacity constraints, IMF Global GDP Forecasts (Apr. 2024) but Irish economy is underpinned by positive factors % Vol 2022 2023 2024 2025  FDI inflows continuing, boosting investment, exports World 3.5 3.2 3.2

  11. Slide 11: AIB Irish Economic Forecasts

    AIB Irish Economic Forecasts % change in real terms unless 2021 2022 2023 2024 (f) 2025 (f) stated GDP 15.1 9.4 -3.2 2.4 2.6 GNP 13.9 3.9 4.4 2.9 2.3 Modified Final Domestic Demand 7.3 9.5 0.5 2.8 3.0 Personal Consumption 8.4 9.4 3.1 2.4 2.8 Government Spending 6.3 3.5 1.7 1.5 0.5 Fixed Investment**

  12. Slide 12: Changes to Global Corporate Tax Regime

    Changes to Global Corporate Tax Regime Importance of FDI:  Some 1,800 multinational companies are based in Ireland, accounting for over 300,000 jobs in direct employment  Corporation tax receipts of €22.6bn in 2022 or 27% of total tax revenue – well over 80% comes from MNCs Changes to Corporate Ta

  13. Slide 13: Risks to the Irish economy

    Risks to the Irish economy  Very open Irish economy vulnerable to weaker global outlook, including FDI inflows Tax revenues as % of total  Concentration risk from heavy reliance of economy on a small 45% number of multi-nationals in terms of investment, output, 40% employment, exports and tax rece

  14. Slide 14: Note: All Irish data in tables are sourced from the CSO unless otherwise stated

    Note: All Irish data in tables are sourced from the CSO unless otherwise stated. Non-Irish data are from the IMF, OECD and Thomson Financial. Irish forecasts are from AIB Economic Research Unit. This presentation is for information purposes and is not an invitation to deal. The information is believ

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