Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) · NYSE:DUK

Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company) — Duke Energy Indiana — Technical Presentation (October 2024)

65 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (Holding Company)'s technical presentation, Oct 3, 2024

1. Slide 1: 2024 Duke Energy Indiana Integrated Resource Plan

   2024 Duke Energy Indiana Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Meeting 5 October 3, 2024

2. Slide 2: Safety

   Safety

3. Slide 3: October is Fire Prevention Month

   October is Fire Prevention Month 1. Cooking fires are the leading cause of home  For an oven fire, turn off the heat and keep the door fires and home fire injuries closed  Stay in the kitchen – Unattended cooking is the leading 3. If you have any doubt about fighting a small cause of cooking fires

4. Slide 4: Welcome

   Welcome Stan Pinegar State President, Duke Energy Indiana

5. Slide 5: Introductions

   (= DUKE SS” ENERGY. ‘BUILDING A SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Introductions

6. Slide 6: Duke Energy Team

   Duke Energy Team Integrated Resource Planning Team Matt Kalemba Nate Gagnon Matt Peterson Emma Goodnow Karen Hall Chris Hixson Josh Paragas Tyler Cook Vice President, Managing Director, Resource Market Strategy & Resource Principal Engineer, Engineer, Resource Engineer, Resource Integrated Resource

7. Slide 7: Agenda

   - © = E o ve c 527 : AG : <3) gS Ff

8. Slide 8: Public Stakeholder Meeting #5 Agenda

   Public Stakeholder Meeting #5 Agenda Present | Time Duration Q&A Topic Presenter Stan Pinegar, Duke Energy Indiana State President 9:30 5 5|0 Welcome & Safety Karen Hall, Duke Energy Resource Planning Director 9:35 5 5|0 Meeting Guidelines & Agenda Drew Burczyk, Consultant, Resource Planning & Marke

9. Slide 9: Technical Stakeholder Meeting #5 Agenda

   Technical Stakeholder Meeting #5 Agenda Present | Time Duration Q&A Topic Presenter 9:00 5 5|0 Welcome & Safety Drew Burczyk, Consultant, Resource Planning & Market Assessments, 1898 & Co 9:05 20 10 | 10 Analytical Framework & Preferred Portfolio Nate Gagnon, Duke Energy Managing Director Midwest IR

10. Slide 10: Meeting Guidelines

    Meeting Guidelines

11. Slide 11: Meeting Ground Rules

    Meeting Ground Rules Respect each other: Help us to collectively uphold respect for each other's experiences and opinions, even in difficult conversations. We need everyone’s wisdom to achieve better understanding and develop robust solutions. Focus on today’s topics: Please respect the scope of tod

12. Slide 12: Participation

    Participation There will be several opportunities throughout the presentation for attendees to actively participate by asking questions, making comments and/or otherwise sharing information.  Q&A: Please use the “Q&A” feature, on the menu at the bottom of your screen, to submit questions to the pre

13. Slide 13: Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation

    Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation

14. Slide 14: Stakeholder Feedback Received & Incorporated into Meeting #5 Agenda

    Stakeholder Feedback Received & Incorporated into Meeting #5 Agenda Feedback, Question, or Requested Information Section of Today’s Meeting Scorecard Metric Feedback Final Scorecard Metric Updates How are risks of data center load captured in the IRP analysis? Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis Summa

15. Slide 15: Additional Feedback Received and Duke Energy Responses

    Additional Feedback Received and Duke Energy Responses Feedback, Question, or Requested Information Response/Update What is the basis of the heat rate inputs for the We just recently completed an evaluation of the heat rate coefficients for our existing coal units? And why might these be higher Indi

16. Slide 16: Q&A

    Q&A

17. Slide 17: Analytical Framework and Preferred Portfolio

    Analytical Framework and Preferred Portfolio

18. Slide 18: Generation Strategies Included in IRP Analysis

    Generation Strategies Included in IRP Analysis CAA Section 111-Compliant Strategies Non-Compliant Convert / Convert Cayuga Co-fire/Retire Gibson Co-fire/Convert Gibson Exit Coal Earlier Unit Retire Coal “No 111” Co-Fire Coal (Blend 1) (Blend 2) (Blend 4) (Stakeholder) Cayuga 1 Retire by 1/1/2030 NG

19. Slide 19: Analytical Framework

    Analytical Framework Generation Strategies Scenarios Strategy Variations • 2x1 v. 1x1 replacement Convert / Co-Fire Coal “Worldviews” 6 • Full NG conversion v. co-firing • No 111 • Add SMRs Reference Strategy Variation Retire Coal • Edwardsport CCS Portfolios • Edwardsport conversion by 2028 Convert

20. Slide 20: 2024 Preferred Portfolio: Blend 2

    2024 Preferred Portfolio: Blend 2 Preferred portfolio based on IRP criteria: BALANCES COST & RISK ADDS INCREMENTAL PRESERVES OPTIONALITY FOR CUSTOMERS CAPACITY TO SUPPORT TO ADAPT TO CHANGING Co-fire/Retire Gibson ECONOMIC CONDITIONS (Blend 2) DEVELOPMENT  Advance development of 1x1 CCs to replace

21. Slide 21: Q&A

    Q&A

22. Slide 22: Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis Summary

    Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis Summary Results are not considered final until the IRP is submitted. While Duke Energy Indiana does not expect analytics to change before the IRP is submitted, the Company will continue to review details and make adjustments as needed.

23. Slide 23: Convert Convert Convert

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 5 10 15 20 (5) Convert Convert Retire Retire Blend 1 Blend 1 Blend 2 2030 Blend 2 2030 Blend 4 Blend 4 Exit Early Exit Early No 111 No 111 Convert Convert Retire Retire Blend 1 Blend 1 Blend 2 2035 Blend 2 2035 Blend 4 Exit Early Blend 4 No 111 Exit Early Convert No 111 Retire Co

24. Slide 24: Results Summary in Aggressive Policy & Rapid Innovation Scenario

    Results Summary in Aggressive Policy & Rapid Innovation Scenario Cumulative Supply-Side Changes (Installed GW, BOY) CO2 Emissions (Mt) PVRR ($B) 25 16 $28.5 20 14 12 Million Tons 15 Convert Storage 10 $28.0 10 Wind 8 Blend 4 5 6 Solar 4 $27.5 0 CC 2 (5) CC (Ret.) 0 Exit Early Blend 1 Blend 1 Blend 2

25. Slide 25: Results Summary in Minimum Policy & Lagging Innovation Scenario

    Results Summary in Minimum Policy & Lagging Innovation Scenario Cumulative Supply-Side Changes (Installed GW, BOY) CO2 Emissions (Mt) PVRR ($B) 10 30 $24.5 25 $24.0 Convert Million Tons 5 20 Storage Wind 15 $23.5 Exit Early 0 Solar 10 Blend 4 $23.0 CC 5 Blend 2 (5) CC (Ret.) 0 $22.5 Blend 1 Blend 1

26. Slide 26: Portfolio Sensitivity Analysis: Load Forecast

    Portfolio Sensitivity Analysis: Load Forecast Peak Load Forecast: Reference and High Cases (GW) Peak Load Forecast: Reference and Low Cases (GW) 8.5 8.0 8.0 High Case 7.5 Winter Reference 7.5 7.0 Forecast Summer 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 Winter 5.0 Reference 4.5 Low Case 4.5 Forecast Summer 4.

27. Slide 27: Portfolio Sensitivity Analysis: CC Cost, Capacity Accreditation

    Portfolio Sensitivity Analysis: CC Cost, Capacity Accreditation Impact of High (1.6x) CC Costs on Resource Selection & PVRR Impact of Accreditation Method on Resource Selection  In a high CC cost future, at least 1,438 MW of new CC capacity is selected for most  Results show some sensitivity to ca

28. Slide 28: Production Cost Sensitivity Analysis: Fuel Price Forecasts

    Production Cost Sensitivity Analysis: Fuel Price Forecasts PVRR Results for Alternate Fuel Price Forecasts ($B) Evaluation of Sensitivity to Fuel Price Variability $30  Analysis of relative changes in portfolio operating costs under alternate $28 fuel price forecasts, without altering the compositi

29. Slide 29: Q&A

    Q&A

30. Slide 30: Scorecard Results

    Scorecard Results Results are not considered final until the IRP is submitted. While Duke Energy Indiana does not expect analytics to change before the IRP is submitted, the Company will continue to review details and make adjustments as needed.

31. Slide 31: Final Scorecard Metric Updates

    Final Scorecard Metric Updates In meeting 4 we discussed several potential changes to the final scorecard metrics and requested feedback on those updates. Following the meeting, we received feedback from several stakeholders. These are the updates made to the final scorecard. Metric Change Summary T

32. Slide 32: Affordability: PVRR & Customer Bill Impacts

    Affordability: PVRR & Customer Bill Impacts PVRR Results Across Scenarios Customer Bill Compound Annual Growth Rates (Reference) $29 4.3% Convert / Co-Fire Coal 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4% 3.7% $28 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% $27 Retire Coal 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3% $26 Blend 1 $25 2% $24 Blend 2 $23 1% Blend 4 $22 0% $21 E

33. Slide 33: Environmental Sustainability: CO2 Emissions & Intensity

    Environmental Sustainability: CO2 Emissions & Intensity Annual CO2 Emissions in Reference Scenario (Mt)*  CO2 emissions trends are very similar across generations strategies, with 35 emissions dropping off steeply in 2030-2032 as coal gives way to gas, renewables, and low-cost energy from the MISO

34. Slide 34: Reliability & Resiliency: Performance Over a Range of Conditions

    Reliability & Resiliency: Performance Over a Range of Conditions  Purpose: evaluate portfolio reliability and resiliency across a  Extreme cold: To explore cold weather risk in more detail, simulations were run for wide range of conditions. 95th percentile or colder winter hours only. Results are

35. Slide 35: Stochastic Modeling of Energy Market Exposure

    Stochastic Modeling of Energy Market Exposure Net Purchases with Economic Dispatch Operating Cost Net of Purchases/Sales CO2 Emissions Mean 10th - 90th Percentile Percent of Load Tons X 1M $ X 1M 25th – 75th Percentile  Net purchases represent opportunities to reduce  Operating costs net of purcha

36. Slide 36: Stochastic Modeling of Energy Market Reliance

    Stochastic Modeling of Energy Market Reliance Generation with Standard Economic Dispatch (Average by Month/Hour) - Blend 2 - 2035 Net Purchases with Max Generation 7000 6000 Coal/DFO CC CT Renew DSM/EE CHP DEI Load 5000 Market Purchases 4000 MW 3000 2000 Percent of Load 1000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

37. Slide 37: Scorecard Results

    Scorecard Results Environmental Sustainability Affordability Reliability Resiliency Cost Risk Market Exposure Execution Risk Cumulative Cumulative CO2 CO2 Spinning Simulated CO2 Fast Start Cost Resource Emissions Intensity of Reserve Resource EUE in Maximum Cumulative Reduction Customer Capability V

38. Slide 38: Scorecard Metrics

    Scorecard Metrics Metric Description Metric Description CO2 Emissions Simulated EUE of Percent CO2 reduction relative to 2025 Percent unserved energy during coldest weather (95th Reduction Islanded System in percentile or greater) observed in Indiana with market 95th Percentile Cold purchases turned

39. Slide 39: Q&A

    Q&A

40. Slide 40: Preferred Portfolio

    Preferred Portfolio Considerations for Short-Term Action Plan Results are not considered final until the IRP is submitted. While Duke Energy Indiana does not expect analytics to change before the IRP is submitted, the Company will continue to review details and make adjustments as needed.

41. Slide 41: Co-Fire / Retire Gibson (Blend 2) | Reference Scenario

    Co-Fire / Retire Gibson (Blend 2) | Reference Scenario Cost Metrics Energy Mix and CO2 Emissions 100% 40 PVRR ($B) $24.3 Economic Purchases 90% 35 EE/DR/IVVC 80% 30 70% Hydro Million tons 60% 25 Bill Impact (CAGR) 2030 4.0% Wind TWh 50% 20 Solar 40% 15 30% Gas/Oil 10 20% Coal 10% 5 Bill Impact (CAGR

42. Slide 42: Demand-Side Resources in the Preferred Portfolio

    Demand-Side Resources in the Preferred Portfolio Max Capacity (GW, Beginning of Year) Energy Contribution (GWh) 1.4 3,000 1.2 Rooftop Solar 2,500 1.0 EE 2,000 0.8 IVVC 1,500 0.6 Demand 1,000 0.4 Response 0.2 500 0.0 0 Bundles Available for Selection Energy Savings (GWh) Year Levelized Cost Bundle Ty

43. Slide 43: PVRR Changes in Response to Blend 2 Strategy Variations

    PVRR Changes in Response to Blend 2 Strategy Variations PVRR Results Across Blend 2 Variations Key Insights Add 600 MW of SMR by 2038  Several variations on Blend 2 result in no significant changes to PVRR (~$700MM increase)  Full gas conversion of Gibson units 1 & 2 (rather than co-firing)  Repl

44. Slide 44: Reminder: Thinking About the IRP Planning Period

    Reminder: Thinking About the IRP Planning Period Iterative resource plan updates 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Future IRPs Immediate future • Typically, less Early 2030s divergence across portfolios, relative to • Increased range

45. Slide 45: Blend 2 Provides Optionality for "No 111" World, Other Circumstances

    Blend 2 Provides Optionality for “No 111” World, Other Circumstances Opportunities to Adjust Course in Response to Potential Delay of Short-Term Actions Prudent Across a Range of Future Conditions Compliance Deadlines Under EPA CAA Section 111 Final Rule • Install two highly-efficient advanced-class

46. Slide 46: Q&A

    Q&A

47. Slide 47: Open Q&A

    Open Q&A

48. Slide 48: Thank you

    Thank you

49. Slide 49: 2024 DEI IRP Stakeholder Engagement

    2024 DEI IRP Stakeholder Engagement Engaging with our stakeholders in multiple sessions throughout the 2024 IRP process Meeting #1 Meeting #2 Meeting #3 Meeting #4 Meeting #5 February 22nd April 29th June 20th August 13th October 3rd  Review previous IRP  Generic Unit Summary  Final inputs  Upda

50. Slide 50: Next Steps

    Next Steps Additional questions, comments, and feedback can be sent to DEIndianaIRP@1898andco.com The IRP submittal date is November 1. After the IRP is submitted, the email address above will no longer be active. A Duke Energy IRP email address will be communicated to stakeholders and updated on th

51. Slide 51: Appendix: Generation Strategy Results

    Appendix: Generation Strategy Results Results are not considered final until the IRP is submitted. While Duke Energy Indiana does not expect analytics to change before the IRP is submitted, the Company will continue to review details and make adjustments as needed.

52. Slide 52: Generation Strategy Results Summary: Convert / Co-Fire Coal

    Generation Strategy Results Summary: Convert / Co-Fire Coal Notes on Generation Strategy CO2 Emissions Over Time • Converting coal units to burn 100% natural gas or co-fire coal/gas, mitigates PVRR Range ($B) 40 need for new capacity in near term, but does not provide additional capacity. $30.0 35 •

53. Slide 53: Convert / Co-Fire Coal: Annual Resource Additions & Retirements

    Convert / Co-Fire Coal : Annual Resource Additions & Retirements (Beginning-of-Year) Existing Resources 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Cayuga 1 Conv. Cayuga 2 Conv. Gibson 1 Cofire (632) Gibson 2 Cofire (633) Gibson 3 Conv. Gibson

54. Slide 54: Generation Strategy Results Summary: Retire Coal

    Generation Strategy Results Summary: Retire Coal Notes on Generation Strategy CO2 Emissions Over Time • Significant additions of dispatchable and variable energy resources are PVRR Range ($B) 40 required by the early 2030s to meet incremental load growth and replace over $30 35 3.8 GW of retiring co

55. Slide 55: Retire Coal: Resource Additions & Retirements

    Retire Coal: Resource Additions & Retirements (Beginning-of-Year Basis) Existing Resources 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Cayuga 1 (502) Cayuga 2 (496) Gibson 1 (632) Gibson 2 (633) Gibson 3 (635) Gibson 4 (626) Gibson 5 (313) Edwa

56. Slide 56: Generation Strategy Results Summary: Convert Cayuga (Blend 1)

    Generation Strategy Results Summary: Convert Cayuga (Blend 1) Notes on Generation Strategy CO2 Emissions Over Time • Cayuga units 1 and 2 are repowered to burn 100% natural gas by 2030, while PVRR Range ($B) 40 Gibson units 1 through 4 are retired and replaced with new combined-cycle $30 35 generati

57. Slide 57: Blend 1: Resource Additions & Retirements

    Blend 1: Resource Additions & Retirements (Beginning-of-Year Basis) Existing Resources 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Cayuga 1 Conv. Cayuga 2 Conv. Gibson 1 (632) Gibson 2 (633) Gibson 3 (635) Gibson 4 (626) Gibson 5 (313) Edwardsp

58. Slide 58: Preferred Portfolio: Co-Fire Gibson (Blend 2)

    Preferred Portfolio: Co-Fire Gibson (Blend 2) Notes on Generation Strategy CO2 Emissions Over Time • Cayuga units 1 and 2 retire by 2030 and 2031. Two 1x1 CCs are added at the PVRR Range ($B) 40 site, replacing the retiring coal and providing incremental MW to help serve $30 35 growing load. Similar

59. Slide 59: Blend 2: Resource Additions & Retirements

    Blend 2: Resource Additions & Retirements (Beginning-of-Year Basis) Existing Resources 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Cayuga 1 (502) Cayuga 2 (256) (240) Gibson 1 Cofire (632) Gibson 2 Cofire (633) Gibson 3 (635) Gibson 4 (626) Gib

60. Slide 60: Generation Strategy Results Summary: Co-fire/Convert Gibson (Blend 4)

    Generation Strategy Results Summary: Co-fire/Convert Gibson (Blend 4) Notes on Generation Strategy CO2 Emissions Over Time • Cayuga units 1 and 2 retire by 2030 and 2031. Two 1x1 CCs are added at PVRR Range ($B) 40 the site, replacing the retiring coal and providing incremental MW to help $30 35 ser

61. Slide 61: Blend 4: Resource Additions & Retirements

    Blend 4: Resource Additions & Retirements (Beginning-of-Year Basis) Existing Resources 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Cayuga 1 (502) Cayuga 2 (256) (240) Gibson 1 Cofire (632) Gibson 2 Cofire (633) Gibson 3 Conv. Gibson 4 Conv. Gib

62. Slide 62: Generation Strategy Results Summary: Exit Coal Earlier (Stakeholder)

    Generation Strategy Results Summary: Exit Coal Earlier (Stakeholder) Notes on Generation Strategy CO2 Emissions Over Time • Accelerating the retirement of Gibson 3 and 4 to 2030 necessitates the PVRR Range ($B) 40 addition of higher volumes of renewables and storage by 2030 than in other $30 35 stra

63. Slide 63: Exit Coal Earlier: Resource Additions & Retirements

    Exit Coal Earlier: Resource Additions & Retirements (Beginning-of-Year Basis) Existing Resources 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Cayuga 1 Conv. (502) Cayuga 2 Conv. (496) Gibson 1 (632) Gibson 2 (633) Gibson 3 (635) Gibson 4 (626) G

64. Slide 64: Appendix: Acronyms

    (= DUKE SS” ENERGY. ING A SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Appendix: Acronyms

65. Slide 65: Acronyms

    Acronyms APRI Aggressive Policy & Rapid Innovation ITC Investment Tax Credit BOY Beginning of Year IVVC Integrated Volt/VAR Control CAA 111 Clean Air Act 111 kWh Kilowatt-hour CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate MISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator CC Combined Cycle MM Million CCS Carbon Captu

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