Slide 1: Growth held back by Brexit
GROWTH HELD BACK BY BREXIT DFDS GROUP 6 February 2020
Slide 2: Contents
Contents • Overview • Q4 and FY numbers • Capital structure • WIN23 • Outlook and priorities 2020 The statements about the future in this announcement contain risks and uncertainties. This entails that actual developments may diverge significantly from statements about the future. 2
Slide 3: 2019 as expected despite challenging Q4. Growth in 2020
2019 as expected despite challenging Q4. Growth in 2020 • FY: Revenue up 6% and EBITDA up 1% to DKK bn 18 Revenue DKK 3.6bn as Brexit and Turkish recession 14 lowered the margin 10 • Q4: EBITDA down 9% to DKK 771m as UK ferry 6 volumes slowed further and non-comparable cost 2 items reduced Mediterra
Slide 4: Q4 2019 result impacted by higher capital costs
Q4 2019 result impacted by higher capital costs Change Change • Revenue growth leveling off as continued growth DKK m Q4 19 Q4 18 vs LY % in Mediterranean is offset by lower UK ferry REVENUE 4,008 3,955 53 1% volumes EBITDA BEFORE SI 771 847 -76 -9% margin, % 19.2 21.4 -2.2 n.a. P/L associates -1 -3
Slide 5: Ferry Division: Q4 EBIT lowered by Brexit and higher costs
Ferry Division: Q4 EBIT lowered by Brexit and higher costs • North Sea down DKK 44m mainly due to 6.5%* Q4 2019 EBIT development vs LY lower volumes DKK m 425 • Channel down DKK 36m due to a lower freight 400 contribution and ferry cost increase -44 375 5 • Mediterranean topline and contribution up
Slide 6: Logistics Division: Q4 EBIT down vs high Nordic 2018 earnings
Logistics Division: Q4 EBIT down vs high Nordic 2018 earnings • Nordic down DKK 14m mostly due to DKK m Q4 2019: Logistics Division, EBIT change vs LY lower activity for Specialised services 50 that peaked in Q4 2018 45 • Continent down DKK 5m mainly due to -14 UK slowdown reduced volumes. Extra 40
Slide 7: Full-year 2019 overview
Full-year 2019 overview Change Change DKK m 2019 2018 vs LY vs LY % • Revenue growth in line with latest outlook of REVENUE 16,592 15,717 875 5.6 EBITDA BEFORE SI 3,633 3,589 44 1.2 around 6% growth and EBITDA in line with margin, % 21.9 22.8 -0.9 n.a. outlook range of DKK 3.55-3.75bn P/L associates
Slide 8: Capital structure – leverage increased in Q4
Capital structure – leverage increased in Q4 • NIBD/EBITDA-ratio of 3.3x end of 2019 NIBD/EBITDA (restated to IFRS 16) 3,5 • Two acquisitions and fleet renewal 3,3 3,3 3,0 3,1 3,2 contribute to increase in leverage – total 3,1 investments of DKK 2.65bn in 2019 2,5 Times 2,0 • Dividend of DKK 4.00 pe
Slide 9: Win23 EBITDA drivers – positive impact continues in 2020
Win23 EBITDA drivers – positive impact continues in 2020 Win23 EBITDA bridge • Key drivers in 2020: DKK m • Mediterranean 5.500 Macro risk • Gothenburg-Zeebrugge Pillar C 500 space charter 5.000 6B • Two 2019 logistics Pillar C acquisitions 4.500 6A 5.500 • 2 mega ferries replace 3 Pillar A ferries
Slide 10: 2020: key performance drivers
2020: key performance drivers Certain/Likely Expected Uncertain Macro drivers • Positive impact from Win23 • Volume growth for freight • Brexit impact on UK freight • Positive global growth strategy initiatives between Turkey and and passenger market Europe development • Turkey’s economy resumes • M
Slide 11: IMO transition 1 Jan 2020 – initial widening of oil price spread
IMO transition 1 Jan 2020 – initial widening of oil price spread Oil price and spread, 2019-2020 • Global transition to 0.5% sulphur 700 limit (northern Europe transitioned to 0.1% limit in 2015) 600 • Price spread between low (MGO) and 500 high sulphur oils (HFO) widened in USD and EUR October 2019
Slide 12: 2020 outlook
2020 outlook • Revenue growth of around 4% - continued growth in Mediterranean, FY impact OUTLOOK 2020 acquisitions and Win23 organic actions • Revenue growth of around 4% (2019: 6%) • Positive earnings impact expected from Win23 strategy initiatives • EBITDA range of DKK 3.5-3.9bn (2019: DKK 3.6bn)
Slide 13: Priorities for 2020
Priorities for 2020 • Continue delivering on Win23 strategy’s financial ambition • Monitor and pursue opportunities to adjust activities to UK market development • CSR – continue to invest in fuel solutions to decarbonise 13
Slide 14: Q&A
Q&A . 14