Cme Group Inc. · NASDAQ:CME

Cme — Conference Presentation (June 2014)

37 slides from Cme's conference presentation, Jun 11, 2014

  1. Slide 1: Global Economic Context for the US Economy

    Global Economic Context for the US Economy The research views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of CME Group or its affiliates. All examples in this presentation are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes onl

  2. Slide 2: Risk Disclosures: Futures and Swaps Trading

    Risk Disclosures: Futures and Swaps Trading Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Swaps trading should only be undertaken by investors who are Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) within the meaning of Section 1a(18) of the Com

  3. Slide 3: Additional Risk Disclosures

    Additional Risk Disclosures The Globe Logo, CME®, Chicago Mercantile Exchange®, and Globex® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT® and the Chicago Board of Trade® are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort ar

  4. Slide 4: Global Growth: Mature Economies

    Global Growth: Mature Economies 2014 Real GDP Mature Country Projections United Kingdom Euro-Zone Japan United States -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Estimates by CME Group Economics Team © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 4

  5. Slide 5: Global Growth: Emerging Markets

    Global Growth: Emerging Markets 2014 Real GDP Emerging Market Projections China India Russia Brazil -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Estimates by CME Group Economics Team © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 5

  6. Slide 6: Low Inflation: Mature Industrial Countries

    Low Inflation: Mature Industrial Countries Inflation: US, Germany, Japan 6% US Year over year Percentage Change 4% 2% Germany 0% Japan -2% -4% 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Source: Bloomberg Professional. © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 6

  7. Slide 7: Fed Ending QE by Late 2014

    Fed Ending QE by Late 2014 Composition of Federal Reserve Assets $4 $3 US$ Trillions $2 UST 10+ Years MBS $1 Other US Treasuries Less Than 10-Years $0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED Database © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 7

  8. Slide 8: ECB Balance Sheet is Shrinking

    ECB Balance Sheet is Shrinking European Central Bank Assets 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Euro Millions 2,500 2,000 1,500 Loans 1,000 FX and Gold Other 500 Securities & Govt Debt 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: European Central Bank Monthly Bulletins © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved

  9. Slide 9: Bank of Japan is Still Buying Aggressively

    Bank of Japan is Still Buying Aggressively Bank of Japan Assets 300,000 250,000 Millions of Japanese Yen 200,000 150,000 Other 100,000 Loans 50,000 Japanese Government Securities 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Bank of Japan (www.boj.or.jp) © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserve

  10. Slide 10: Focus on United States

    Focus on United States Budgetary Stability Healthy Private Sector Job Growth Job Losses from Government Sector Ending Labor Market Dynamics in Flux Changing Nature of US Energy Production Boom Agricultural Risks and Drought Prospects © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 10

  11. Slide 11: Federal Budget Coming into Balance

    Federal Budget Coming into Balance US Federal Government Revenues and Expenditures $4 Expenditures $3 US$ Trillions $2 Revenues $1 $0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: US Treasury Department, Projections by CME Economics. © 2013 CME Gro

  12. Slide 12: US Private Sector Job Growth Is Healthy

    US Private Sector Job Growth Is Healthy US Private Sector Jobs 118,000 115,000 1000s of Private Sector Jobs 112,000 109,000 Private sector job growth has been 106,000 about as strong as the last economic 103,000 recovery -- starting from a lower base. 100,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Sourc

  13. Slide 13: Governments Stopped Reducing Their Workforces in mid-2013

    Governments Stopped Reducing Their Workforces in mid-2013 US Federal, State, and Local Government Jobs 23,500 23,000 Census Workers (2010) 1000s of Government Jobs 22,500 22,000 QE was never going to help 21,500 state and local governments get their budgets in order -- 817,000 jobs were lost between

  14. Slide 14: Pace of Decline of Unemployment Rate

    Pace of Decline of Unemployment Rate © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 14

  15. Slide 15: Duration of Unemployment: Tale of Two Indicators

    Duration of Unemployment: Tale of Two Indicators Number of Unemployed Persons: Short Duration vs. Long Duration 8000 Long Duration 7000 in Thousands of Persons Unemployment (27 + weeks) 6000 Short Duration 5000 Unemployment (less than 5 weeks) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

  16. Slide 16: Part-Timers Staying Elevated due to Aging and E-Commerce

    Part-Timers Staying Elevated due to Aging and E-Commerce © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 16

  17. Slide 17: Participation Rate

    Participation Rate © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 17

  18. Slide 18: Quit vs Layoff Rates

    Quit vs Layoff Rates © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 18

  19. Slide 19: Aging of US Labor Force

    Aging of US Labor Force © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 19

  20. Slide 20: Deceleration of the US Labor Force Growth

    Deceleration of the US Labor Force Growth © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 20

  21. Slide 21: Monthly Job Creation: Long-Term Perspective

    Monthly Job Creation: Long-Term Perspective © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 21

  22. Slide 22: Natural Gas: US Production & Consumption

    Natural Gas US Natural Gas Production & Consumption 35,000,000 30,000,000 Production 25,000,000 20,000,000 MMcf Consumption 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1949 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997 2005 2013 Source: US Energy Information Administration, Sourcekeys N9140US2 (Consumption) and N9010US2 (Wit

  23. Slide 23: Petroleum: US Crude Oil Production

    Petroleum US Crude Oil Production 350,000 300,000 U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil 250,000 (Thousand Barrels) 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: US Energy Information Administration, Sourcekey

  24. Slide 24: Petroleum Exports and Imports

    Petroleum Exports and Imports © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 24

  25. Slide 25: Coal: US Coal Exports and Imports

    Coal US Coal Exports and Imports 140,000 120,000 Thousands of short tons of coal Exports 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Imports 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Monthly Reports EM 545 and Monthly Report IM 145. © 2013 CME Group. All righ

  26. Slide 26: Corn

    Corn Source: United States Department of Agriculture http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornac.asp © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 26

  27. Slide 27: California and Texas/Oklahoma Droughts

    California and Texas/Oklahoma Droughts Source: University of Nebraska (May 27, 2014) http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20140527/20140527_conus_trd.jpg © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 27

  28. Slide 28: Ocean Surface Temperature Anomalies

    Ocean Surface Temperature Anomalies Source: UNYSIS for 31 May 2014 -- http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur © 2013 CME Group. All rights reserved 28

  29. Slide 29: Geo-Political Risks (Source of Black Swans ?)

    Geo-Political Risks (Source of Black Swans ?) Scottish Independence Vote (Sept 2014) Repercussions from EU Parliament Election (May 2014) Brazil Presidential Election (Oct 2014) India’s New Prime Minister (May 2014) Russia’s Post-Crimean Annexation Ambitions (2014) Russia-China Natural Gas Agreement

  30. Slide 30: Global Economic Context for the US Economy

    Global Economic Context for the US Economy The research views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of CME Group or its affiliates. All examples in this presentation are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes onl

  31. Slide 31: Global Economic Outlook for the Remainder of 2014

    Global Economic Outlook for the Remainder of 2014 Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group June 11th, 2014

  32. Slide 32: Disclaimer

    Disclaimer Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore,

  33. Slide 33: Access a world of market opportunity

    Access a world of market opportunity Diversify and take advantage of current market opportunities with contracts covering all major asset classes including forex, stock indexes, agricultural commodities, energy, metals and interest rates. • Trade CME Group markets: - Equivalent market exposure with

  34. Slide 34: Futures Resource Center

    Futures Resource Center Visit: www.interactivebrokers.com/cme © 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. 34

  35. Slide 35: CME Featured Reports/Video Insights

    CME Featured Reports/Video Insights Visit: http://www.cmegroup.com/education/browse-materials/bios/commentary/bluford-putnam.html © 2014 CME Group. All rights reserved. 35

  36. Slide 36: Bluford Putnam

    Bluford Putnam Bluford (Blu) Putnam has served as Managing Director and Chief Economist of CME Group since May 2011. He is responsible for leading economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and t

  37. Slide 37: CME Group

    <3 CME Group

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