Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) · NYSE:DUK
Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company) — Technical Presentation (June 2020)
47 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s technical presentation, Jun 18, 2020
Slide 1: IRP Webinar: 2020 Integrated Resource Plans
IRP Webinar 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANS DUKE ENERGY CAROLINAS & DUKE ENERGY PROGRESS June 18, 2020
Slide 2: Today's Agenda
Today’s Agenda June 18, 2020 9:00 AM-9:10 AM Welcome, Safety and Overview 9:10 AM-9:30 AM Stakeholder Feedback, What’s New in the IRP 9:30 AM-10:15 AM Resource Evaluation, Data Access and Inputs 10:15AM- 10:45 AM Carbon Reduction 10:45-11:25AM Energy Efficiency, Demand Response, Winter Peaking 11:25
Slide 3: Some Reminders
Some Reminders • We will mute attendee lines for the duration of the webinar. • We encourage participants to submit questions throughout the session via the question box feature of the webinar. • Participants should be able to see a video stream of most presenters if you are logged into the webinar.
Slide 4: Purpose of Today's Webinar
Purpose of Today’s Webinar Review 2020 IRP stakeholder engagement activities • Highlights, statistics from prior events • Key themes of stakeholder feedback Preview 2020 IRP • What’s changed since 2018 • Key focus areas • How Duke is incorporating stakeholder feedback Next Steps • Comments/questions
Slide 5: Stakeholder Feedback
Stakeholder Feedback 5
Slide 6: Stakeholder Engagement Timeline
Stakeholder Engagement Timeline 12/10 Jan – Apr 4/16 – 5/1 8/4 9/1 Duke hosts ISOP Duke collects IRP stakeholder Duke collects additional Duke hosts Duke files workshop #1 feedback via listening sessions, stakeholder feedback second ISOP 2020 IRP surveys, and intervenor comments on IRP inputs forum
Slide 7: Recap of March and April IRP Forums
Recap of March 17 and April 16 IRP Forums Unique attendees Distinct entities Survey responses 154 107 52 Participation from both NC Significant participation from Provided Duke with valuable and SC stakeholders environmental and feedback 185 total participants for two government stakeholders
Slide 8: Stakeholder Survey Responses
Stakeholder Survey Responses • Between the two forums, 52 stakeholders provided responses to 10 combined questions • ‘10’ represents strong satisfaction (e.g., extremely likely/helpful) and ‘0’ represents no satisfaction at all (e.g., not at all likely/helpful) Distribution of IRP Forum Survey Score
Slide 9: Stakeholder Priority Focus Areas
Stakeholder Priority Focus Areas Based on IRP Forum Feedback EE, DR, and Winter Resource Evaluation Carbon Reduction Peaking Study • IRP forums focused on • IRP forums focused on • IRP forums addressed the factors impacting how Duke is planning EE & DR offerings, evaluation, including for carbon red
Slide 10: Three Key Themes of Stakeholder Feedback
Three Key Themes of Stakeholder Feedback EE, DR and Winter Resource Evaluation Carbon Reduction Peaking Study • Additional data sources • Diversity in carbon • Participation to consider scenarios, with specific opportunities for low- • Application of interest in CEP scenarios and moderate- income En
Slide 11: IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable and Clean
IRP Goals: Affordable, Reliable and Clean Affordable Reliable Clean Transition requires intensified efforts across all three goals 11
Slide 12: 2020 IRP – What's New
2020 IRP – What’s New 12
Slide 13: How the 2020 IRP Will Look Different
How the 2020 IRP Will Look Different • Stakeholder Engagement feedback incorporated in advance of filing • New Studies – Resource Adequacy, Coal Retirement, Battery Capacity Value, and Energy Efficiency and DSM Market Potential Study • Winter Peak Shaving Demand Response Study • Total demand and ene
Slide 14: 2020 IRP – Some Examples of Analyses
2020 IRP – Some Examples of Analyses Analysis Driver Notes Economic Coal • Stakeholder interest Establishes new base case retirement dates • NCUC Order Earliest Coal • Stakeholder interest How quickly can coal be retired and at what • NCUC Order cost? Base Case/ • IRP requirement Economic resource s
Slide 15: Resource Evaluation, Data Inputs and Access
Resource Evaluation, Data Inputs and Access 15
Slide 16: Resource Evaluation: Top Stakeholder Feedback
Resource Evaluation: Top Stakeholder Feedback Data Source Feedback Earlier access to data, particularly key inputs Ideas for new/additional data sources Support for Encompass and application ideas Interest in ISOP integration Analysis Feedback Better understanding of coal retirement analysis Competi
Slide 17: Stakeholder Feedback: Earlier Access to Data
Stakeholder Feedback: Earlier Access to Data • While access to all modeling data prior to filing is not feasible, we are working on providing intervenors expedited access to key inputs Earlier Access • Goal will be to provide access to key inputs in an expedited fashion shortly after filing to IRP D
Slide 18: Solar and Solar Plus Storage Forecast
Include more selectable sizes and ratios of solar plus storage • Forecasts will include ~50% of incremental additions as solar plus storage • Model is eligible to select additional solar and solar plus storage above forecast $5,000 14000 Additional economic selection of $4,500 System Solar Capacity
Slide 19: Use publicly available fuel forecasts
Use publicly available fuel forecasts • We plan to use the AEO High and Low Oil and Gas Supply cases in development of the high and low natural gas price curves Henry Hub Gas Price Commodity Price [$/MMBtu] 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Base Fuel AEO Reference Case Low Fuel AEO High Oil and Gas
Slide 20: Technology Costs – Market-Based and Public Data
Technology Costs – Market-Based and Public Data • IRP technology costs incorporate market data and trends, and are compared to publicly available data for reasonableness • Public sources can have differences in application or are equivalent on other bases Capacity Cost [$/kW] Storage Cost [$/kWh] Pu
Slide 21: Stakeholder Feedback: Data Sources
Stakeholder Feedback: Data Sources Stakeholder Feedback Inclusion in the 2020 IRP Earlier access to key inputs Expedited response for intervenors under NDA EIA’s 2020 Annual Energy Outlook Will be used in the development of the high and (AEO) High and Low Oil and Gas low natural gas price curve Supp
Slide 22: Application of Encompass, Understanding ISOP Integration
Application of Encompass, Understanding ISOP Integration Transitioning to Encompass for our official production cost model: • Changing to this model as new system of record requires extensive training for the entire modeling team on this new platform. • Training and implementation has been delayed d
Slide 23: Stakeholder Interest: Coal Retirement Analysis
Stakeholder Interest: Coal Retirement Analysis Transparent, Detailed Analysis of Each Remaining Unit Approach Analysis Additional Steps Complex process, requires Evaluates most economic After economic and earliest simplifying assumptions and earliest practicable practicable dates are established, ad
Slide 24: Competitively Sourcing Resources, Cost Impacts
Stakeholder Feedback: Competitively Sourcing Resources, Cost Impacts • We recognize the value of pursuing market solicitations to ensure prudent resource selection on behalf of customers • We actively support competitive procurement of renewable resources in the Carolinas, which was part of comprehe
Slide 25: Carbon Reduction in the IRP
Carbon Reduction in the IRP 25
Slide 26: Top Stakeholder Feedback: Carbon Reduction
Top Stakeholder Feedback: Carbon Reduction • How analyses will incorporate CEP and Duke’s climate goals • Relationship to retirement analysis • Considerations/assumptions of new technologies with high interest in solar, storage, solar + storage, and wind 26
Slide 27: Model Range of Carbon Reduction Futures
Feedback: Model Range of Carbon Reduction Futures • Federal and State policy will help determine carbon reduction drivers • IRP model will rely on CO2 prices to drive reductions in emissions and prices will align with previous or currently proposed carbon regulations. • Carbon Regulation examples: o
Slide 28: Integrating CEP and Duke's Climate Goals
Integrating CEP and Duke’s Climate Goals • Portfolios will reflect multiple glide paths to achieving our 2050 net-zero carbon goals, including considerations for the Clean Energy Plan o Coal plant retirement dates o Increased penetration of renewables, including wind o Storage and solar+storage opti
Slide 29: Energy Efficiency, Demand Response and Winter Peaking
Energy Efficiency, Demand Response and Winter Peaking 29
Slide 30: Energy Efficiency Market Potential Study
Energy Efficiency Market Potential Study MPS Summary: Three Scenarios: Additional Impacts: Performed by Nexant Base, Enhanced and High MPS scope included existing Avoided Energy Costs technologies and market trends Evaluates Technical, Economic and Achievable Potential of EE High Avoided Energy scen
Slide 31: Winter Peak Study Project Team
Winter Peak Study Project Team • Combined experience in program design, strategy, and modeling. • Experts in aligning targeted DSM programs with utility resource needs. • Deep understanding of the interplay between advanced rate designs and well-designed DSM programs. • Knowledgeable in how to asses
Slide 32: Winter Peak Study - Responding to Stakeholder Feedback
Winter Peak Study - Responding to Stakeholder Feedback Stakeholder Feedback Action Taking Strong stakeholder support for pursuing study Proceeding with study Customer programs that help address clean 8760 hourly load shapes facilitate carbon energy goals. impact modeling. Be considerate of cost impa
Slide 33: Screening Approach for Winter Peak Opportunities
Screening Approach for Winter Peak Opportunities Target Winter Peak Loads Identify Leverage Current Duke Programs DSM opportunities that best align Look for ways to ‘winterize’ programs with Duke’s winter peak resource and use current delivery channels, needs platforms, and trade allies. Target Tech
Slide 34: Targeting Winter Peak Loads
Targeting Winter Peak Loads • Winter system peak loads typically occur on weekdays between 7:00 and 9:00 a.m.. This is driven largely by residential loads. • Residential load starts increasing around 6:00 a.m. as residents turn on home heating and hot water use increases, peaking between 7:00 and 9:
Slide 35: Targeting Winter Peak Loads
Targeting Winter Peak Loads • DEC and DEP have a relatively equal distribution of peak loads across residential and commercial customers. • Graphs below represent loads by customer segments on the highest peak load in 2018, occurring January 5. DEC DEP 8,000 6,000 7,000 5,000 6,000 4,000 5,000 MW 3,
Slide 36: Targeting Winter Peak Loads – Residential
Targeting Winter Peak Loads – Residential • We examined winter peak events to understand what residential loads are driving winter peaks • Space heating with heat pumps is the primary driver. Accounts for ~70% of morning peak demand for an average user. Smart thermostats can help reduce peak loads w
Slide 37: Combine Customer Benefits with Integrated DSM
Combine Customer Benefits with Integrated DSM • Combine customer/utility benefits from DER technologies that can provide multiple values o EE Benefits – value in annual kWh savings from improved efficiency o Load Shifting Benefits – value in shifting kW combined with TOU rates for ongoing bill savin
Slide 38: Preliminary Residential Opportunity List
Preliminary Residential Opportunity List • Energy Efficiency o Winter HVAC tune up program/optimize heat strip settings o HVAC early replacement/Cold climate heat pumps • Demand Response/Flexible Capacity o Winter peak BYOT smart thermostat demand response program o Residential advanced rates combin
Slide 39: Next Steps
Next Steps • Greatly appreciate stakeholder feedback and will continue to engage stakeholders via EE collaborative and ISOP • Continue defining and modeling winter peak solutions • Incorporate into IRP high EE/DR scenario (when available) • Determine possible near-term DSM filings 39
Slide 40: Thank You and Next Steps
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Slide 41: Three Key Themes of Stakeholder Feedback – Summary
Three Key Themes of Stakeholder Feedback – Summary EE, DR and Winter Resource Evaluation Carbon Reduction Peaking Study Additional data sources Diversity in carbon Participation to consider scenarios, with specific opportunities for low- Application of interest in CEP scenarios and moderate-
Slide 42: Next Steps
Next Steps • Please complete the survey immediately following the webinar; the link will also be sent to you tomorrow • ICF will be developing a final report, which we will post on the www.duke-energy.com/irp site • Slides and agenda from webinar will be posted on the site as well • Save the Date fo
Slide 43: Appendix
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Slide 44: Next Steps
Next Steps • Small and medium commercial represent about 24% of system winter peak load. • Peak winter loads for these customers occur later than residential customers and generally do not decrease as quickly (Bottom left graph) • This market has a very diverse set commercial operations and needs, b
Slide 45: Targeting Winter Peak Loads
Targeting Winter Peak Loads • Large commercial and Industrial facilities are about 21% of winter peak and represent a diverse set of customer types. • Industrial customer generally have flat loads that are not weather sensitive and are constant throughout the year. • Large commercial customers tend
Slide 46: Targeting Winter Peak Loads
Targeting Winter Peak Loads • An emerging issue is electricity demand related to electric vehicles • Electric vehicles represent one of the largest areas of electricity demand growth • Demand for EVs in North Carolina is expected to accelerate over the next few years • Many vehicles will charge at w
Slide 47: Preliminary C&I Opportunities
Preliminary C&I Opportunities • Energy Efficiency • Winter HVAC tune up program for small C&I/optimize heat strips • Demand Response/Flexible Capacity • Small/Med C&I – smart thermostat DR • Large C&I – innovative optional TOU/Interruptible rates • Small/Med C&I – new TOU rates • C&I storage – ‘brin