First Horizon Corporation · NYSE:FHN
First Horizon — Finance to Fairways Fort Myers (March 2025)
20 slides from First Horizon's conference presentation, March 2025
Slide 1: PS cer. po enn
PS cer. po enn HORIZON BANK. FINANCIAL.
Slide 2: The only certainty is uncertainty
The only certainty is uncertainty Sophia Kearney-Lederman Senior Economist, FHN Financial
Slide 3: Strong growth in '24; Q1'25 tracking notably slower
Strong growth in ’24; Q1’25 tracking notably slower Real GDP w/ Atlanta Fed GDPNow 6.0% Qrt/Qtr Annualized w/ Sector Contributions Atlanta Fed 5.0% Q1 GDPNow *gold adjusted 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Consumption Bus. Fixed Invest Residential Invest. Inventories Government Net Exports
Slide 4: Sluggish consumer spending so far this year
Sluggish consumer spending so far this year Retail Sales: Food & Beverage Stores Retail Sales: Restaurants & Bars $100tn 10.0% $90tn Nominal (left) 16.0% 9.0% Real* (left) 14.0% $90tn $85tn 8.0% CPI: Food at home, yr/yr% (right) 12.0% $80tn 7.0% $80tn 10.0% 6.0% $70tn $75tn 8.0% 5.0% $60tn 4.0% 6.0%
Slide 5: Consumer confidence has faded
Consumer confidence has faded Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 190 Consumer Confidence Present Situation Expectations 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 Source: Conference Board, Macrobond, FHN Financial
Slide 6: Business sentiment reflects growth & tariff uncertainty
Business sentiment reflects growth & tariff uncertainty ISM Indices: New Orders ISM Indices: Prices Paid Contraction < 50 < Expansion Contraction < 50 < Expansion 100 70 Manufacturing Manufacturing Services 65 90 Services 60 80 55 70 50 60 45 50 40 40 35 30 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20
Slide 7: Tariff uncertainty = near-term inflation upside risk
Tariff uncertainty = near-term inflation upside risk Short and Long Term Inflation Expectations 7.0% NY Fed Inflation Expectations Median 1 Year Ahead 6.0% NY Fed Inflation Expectations Median 3 Year Ahead U.S. 5yr 5yr Forward Breakeven 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202
Slide 8: Inflation has made progress, still too high
Inflation has made progress, still too high Consumer Price Index 9.0% Core Consumer Price Index 0.8% MoM% (left) 8.0% 1.4% MoM%(left) 8.0% YoY% (right) 1.2% 0.7% 7.0% YoY% (right) 7.0% 0.6% 6.0% 1.0% 6.0% 0.5% 5.0% 0.8% 5.0% 0.4% 4.0% 4.0% 0.6% 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0%
Slide 9: Hiring was volatile in '24, slow start to '25
Hiring was volatile in ’24, slow start to ‘25 Nonfarm Payrolls 600k Monthly change Government Services Goods Total 3mth Avg 12mth Avg 500k 400k 300k 200k 100k 0k Jan '23 Apr '23 Jul '23 Oct '23 Jan '24 Apr '24 Jul '24 Oct '24 Jan '25 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Macrobond, FHN Financial 9
Slide 10: Unemployment rate little changed for 8 months
Unemployment rate little changed for 8 months Unemployment Rate 4.50% 4.22% 4.23% 4.40% Unemployment Rate 4.30% 3mth avg 4.20% 4.10% 4.00% 4.09% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.67% 3.50% 3.40% 3.45% 3.30% 3.20% Jan '22 Apr '22 Jul '22 Oct '22 Jan '23 Apr '23 Jul '23 Oct '23 Jan '24 Apr '24 Jul '24 Oct '24
Slide 11: The Fed and Interest Rates
The Fed and Interest Rates • At the March meeting, FOMC left rates unchanged and elected to slow the pace of balance sheet roll off • Updated projections point to slower growth, inflation upside this year, and steady unemployment rate • The Fed is facing the same uncertainty markets are and is in no
Slide 12: Fed 2025 projection: slower growth, higher inflation
Fed 2025 projection: slower growth, higher inflation 2025 Real GDP 2025 Unemployment 2025 Core PCE 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.8% 2.5% 3.5% 4.6% 4.4% 2.0% 3.0% 4.2% 1.5% 4.0% 2.5% 3.8% 1.0% 2.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0.5% 1.5% 3.2% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% Mar '24 Jun '24 Sept '24 Dec '24 Mar '25 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sept '24 Dec '24 Ma
Slide 13: No change to median fed funds projections
No change to median fed funds projections Evolution of median participants' projections: Fed funds rate 6.0% Hundreds 5.5% Mar '24 June '24 Sept '24 Dec '24 Mar '25 5.0% 4.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Actual 2025 2026 2027 Longer Run Source: 13
Slide 14: Some movement in the March dot distributions
Some movement in the March dot distributions The March 2025 Dot Plot 5.5 % Expected fed funds rate at year-end 5.0 % Median 4.5 % Current level 4.0 % 3.5 % 3.0 % 2.5 % Mar-25 2.0 % 2025 2026 2027 Longer Run Note: Each dot represents the expectations of one FOMC member. Median projection 3.875% for 2
Slide 15: Market vs Fed rate cut expectations
Market vs Fed rate cut expectations FF futures implied qtr-point cuts '25 0 Market expectations v. FOMC dot plot median 1 2 Number of 25bp point cuts 3 4 5 Mkt expected cuts in '25 Median dot expected cuts '25 6 7 Jan '24 Mar '24 May '24 Jul '24 Sep '24 Nov '24 Jan '25 Mar '25 Source: Federal Reserv
Slide 16: US 10-yr yield reflects shifting concern
US 10-yr yield reflects shifting concern US 10-Yr Yield 5.00% 4.90% 4.80% 4.70% 4.60% 4.50% 4.40% 4.30% 4.20% 4.10% 4.00% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.50% Jan '24 Feb '24 Mar '24 Apr '24 May '24 Jun '24 Jul '24 Aug '24 Sep '24 Oct '24 Nov '24 Dec '24 Jan '25 Feb '25Mar '25 Source: Bloomberg, FHN Financ
Slide 17: Key takeaways
Key takeaways • Sharp slowdown in Q1 growth likely. And Q2 uncertain, too. • Biggest difference between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 is last time the good came before the bad. This time it is the other way around. • Tariff hokey-pokey is fueling growth concerns • April 2 is the next important tariff date
Slide 18: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Although this information has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale o
Slide 19: Thank you!
Thank you! Py rigs ps EHN HORIZON BANK. FINANCIAL.
Slide 20: PS cer. po enn
PS cer. po enn HORIZON BANK. FINANCIAL.
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