Johnson Matthey PLC · LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey — Investor Presentation (2012)
46 slides from Johnson Matthey's investor presentation, Jun 19, 2012
Slide 1: #Platinum2012
#Platinum2012 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of relian
Slide 3: Platinum
Platinum www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 4: Platinum in 2011
Platinum in 2011 • Market moved into surplus of 430,000 oz • Supplies grew to a four-year high despite a fall in underlying mine production in South Africa • Demand rose in every sector apart from investment • Pent-up demand in the heavy duty market raised purchasing of platinum in autocatalysts • N
Slide 5: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies million oz 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 South Africa Russia North America Others Platinum supplies rose by 7.1% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 6: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change South Africa 4,635 4,855 4.7 Russia 825 835 1.2 North America 200 350 75.0 Zimbabwe 280 340 21.4 Others 110 100 (9.1) Total 6,050 6,480 7.1 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 7: Total South African output
Total South African output million oz 6.0 release 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 accumulation 0.0 2010 2011 -1.0 Pipeline/stocks Underlying production www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 8: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change South Africa 4,635 4,855 4.7 Russia 825 835 1.2 North America 200 350 75.0 Zimbabwe 280 340 21.4 Others 110 100 (9.1) Total 6,050 6,480 7.1 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 9: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,075 3,105 1.0 Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment • Light duty diesel 655 +460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 • Light duty gasoline – Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25
Slide 10: Gross platinum autocatalyst demand share
Gross platinum autocatalyst demand share % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Light duty gasoline Light duty diesel Heavy duty diesel www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 11: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,075 3,105 1.0 Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 12: Platinum industrial demand
Platinum industrial demand million oz 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & Other Industrial demand for platinum rose by 16.8% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 13: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,075 3,105 1.0 Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 14: Gross platinum jewellery demand
Gross platinum jewellery demand million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Europe Japan North America China Rest of the World Gross platinum jewellery demand rose by 2.5% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 15: Estimated monthly purchasing of platinum by Chinese jewellery industry
Estimated monthly purchasing of platinum by the Chinese jewellery industry '000 oz Jewellery demand Price RMB/g 250 450 200 400 150 350 100 300 50 250 0 200 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-10 Apr-10 May-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 May-11 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct
Slide 16: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,075 3,105 1.0 Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 17: Platinum investment demand
Platinum investment demand million oz 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Small bars and coins ETFs Large bars Net platinum investment demand fell by 29.8% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 18: Platinum ETF investment demand
Platinum ETF investment demand million oz 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Rising price Falling price Rising price Falling price 2010 2011 Investment Disinvestment www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 19: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,075 3,105 1.0 Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross demand 7,905 8,095 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 20: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Gross demand 7,905 8,095 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 21: Platinum recycling
Platinum recycling million oz $/oz 2.5 2,000 2.0 1,600 1.5 1,200 1.0 800 0.5 400 0.0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Average price Platinum recycling rose by 11.7% and reached new highs in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 22: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Gross demand 7,905 8,095 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Net demand 6,075 6,050 (0.4) Stock movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 23: Platinum outlook
Platinum outlook • Supplies: • Less flexibility in South Africa to supplement supplies from stocks in 2012 • Disruption to production this year increases the likelihood of lower supplies • North America and Zimbabwe cannot grow as they did in 2011 • Demand: • Autocatalyst demand will remain broadly
Slide 24: Platinum price forecast: the next six months
Platinum price forecast: the next six months $/oz 2,000 1,900 1,800 $1,750 1,700 1,600 $1,600 1,500 $1,450 1,400 1,300 1,200 2010 2011 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 25: Palladium
Palladium www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 26: Palladium in 2011
Palladium in 2011 • Palladium market swung into a 1.26 million oz surplus • Supplies remained almost flat as growth in output from North America and Zimbabwe was partly offset by lower Russian state stock shipments • Gross demand fell due to net negative investment • Autocatalyst demand reached a re
Slide 27: Palladium supplies
Palladium supplies million oz 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 South Africa Russia (Primary) Russia (Stocks) North America Others Palladium supplies remained flat in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 28: Palladium supplies
Palladium supplies ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change South Africa 2,640 2,560 (3.0) Russia primary 2,720 2,705 (0.6) Russia stocks 1,000 775 (22.5) North America 590 900 52.5 Zimbabwe 220 265 20.5 Others 185 155 (16.2) Total 7,355 7,360 0.1 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 29: Special feature: Russian PGM mining
Special feature: Russian PGM mining Scan the code for an interactive map of the Taimyr peninsula Scan the code for an interactive map of the Kola peninsula www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 30: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 5,580 6,030 8.1 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6) Jewellery • Japan 595– 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) • Everywhere Gross Demand else 9,735+ 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 • Pd substitution in diese
Slide 31: Gross palladium autocatalyst demand
Gross palladium autocatalyst demand million oz 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Europe Japan North America China Rest of the World Autocatalyst demand rose by 8.1% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 32: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 5,580 6,030 8.1 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6 Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 33: Palladium industrial demand
Palladium industrial demand million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chemical Dental Electrical Other Industrial demand rose by 0.6% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 34: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 5,580 6,030 8.1 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6 Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 35: Gross palladium jewellery demand
Gross palladium jewellery demand million oz 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Europe Japan North America China Rest of the World Jewellery demand fell by 15.1% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 36: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 5,580 6,030 8.1 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6 Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 37: Palladium ETFs in Europe and North America
Palladium ETFs in Europe and North America million oz 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Europe North America ETF investment demand turned sharply negative in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 38: Palladium ETF investment demand
Palladium ETF investment demand million oz 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Rising price Falling price Rising price Falling price 2010 2011 Investment Disinvestment www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 39: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 5,580 6,030 8.1 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6 Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matt
Slide 40: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Gross demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 41: Palladium recycling
Palladium recycling million oz $/oz 2.5 1,000 2.0 800 1.5 600 1.0 400 0.5 200 0.0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Average price Palladium recycling rose by 26.8% in 2011 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 42: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Gross demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Net demand (7,885 6,105 (22.6) Stock movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 43: Palladium outlook
Palladium outlook • Supplies: • Further sales from Russian state stocks this year, at a much reduced level, which will represent the bulk of remaining state inventories • South African supplies expected to be broadly flat • Demand • Autocatalyst demand expected to rise due to higher gasoline vehicle
Slide 44: Palladium price forecast: the next six months
Palladium price forecast: the next six months $/oz 900 800 $800 700 $715 600 $620 500 400 300 2010 2011 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 45: Rhodium supply and demand
Rhodium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2010 2011 % change Supplies 734 765 4.2 Gross demand 887 906 2.1 Recycling (241) (280) 16.2 Net demand (646 626 (3.1) Stock movement 88 139 www.platinum.matthey.com e
Slide 46: #Platinum2012
#Platinum2012 www.platinum.matthey.com e