Coface Sa · EURONEXT:COFA
Coface Sa — Investor Presentation (November 2023)
18 slides from Coface Sa's investor presentation, Nov 9, 2023
Slide 1: 2024 Global Economic Outlook: From One Risk to Another
2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK : FROM ONE RISK TO ANOTHER J E A N - C H R I S TO P H E C A F F E T G R O U P C H I E F E C O N O M I S T, C O FA C E
Slide 2: Commodity Prices: Some Relief
COMMODITY PRICES: SOME RELIEF Commodity prices (GSCI, 100 in Jan. 1, 2020) Non-energy commodity prices since 2022 Energy (oil & gas) prices since 2022 (GSCI, 100 in Jan. 1, 2022) 140 ($/b, €/Mwh) 370 200 140 Brent ($/b, LHS) 135 Energy Industrial Metals 130 TTF (Natgas EU, 320 175 130 €/Mwh, RHS) No
Slide 3: The Energy Crisis Is Not Behind Us
THE ENERGY CRISIS IS NOT BEHIND US Investments in upstream oil & gas Investments in clean energy (bn $2022) (bn $2022) 1000 5000 NZE 900 800 4000 Base case 700 600 3000 Base 500 case 400 NZE 2000 300 200 1000 100 Sources: IEA, COFACE 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2023-2030 2
Slide 4: Inflation: The Peak Is (Well) Behind Us
INFLATION : THE PEAK IS (WELL) BEHIND US Inflation - Advanced economies Inflation – Emerging countries (CPI, YoY, %) 20 (CPI, YoY, %) 11 10 Poland 9 UK US Brazil 15 Euro area Japan Thailand 8 Mexico 7 6 10 5 4 3 5 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 Source: central banks -5 -3 Source: central banks 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 1
Slide 5: (Dis)inflation: The Hardest Part Lies Ahead
(DIS)INFLATION : THE HARDEST PART LIES AHEAD US: headline & core* inflation Euro area : headline & core* inflation 12 (YoY, %) 12 (YoY, %) *CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food *CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food 10 10 Headline Core Headline Core 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 Sources: FED, COFA
Slide 6: Monetary Tightening: Fast & Furious
MONETARY TIGHTENING : FAST & FURIOUS Central banks’ base rates Central banks’ balance sheets (%) (% GDP) 70% 6 60% 5 FED FED ECB 50% ECB 4 BOE BOE 40% 3 30% 2 20% 1 10% Source: central banks Source: central banks 0 0% 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 RATE HIKES ARE O
Slide 7: An Increasingly Complicated Budgetary Equation
AN INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED BUDGETARY EQUATION Public deficit Sovereign interest rates (% GDP) (10yr, %) 8 2 7 0 6 UK Germany 5 -2 US 4 -4 3 -6 2 1 -8 0 Advanced economies -10 -1 Emerging economies Sources: Datastream, Coface Sources: Datastream, Coface -2 -12 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 200
Slide 8: Central Scenario: GDP Growth Forecasts
CENTRAL SCENARIO : GDP GROWTH FORECASTS Global real GDP growth & regional contributions Real GDP growth in major economies (market exchange rates, yoy,%) (%) 8 7 6,7 6,3 6,1 6 6 5,5 2022 2023 2024 5,0 4,5 5 4,5 4 3,4 3,4 3,3 4,0 4,0 3,0 3,2 3,1 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,6 4 3,7 2,4 2,2 3,0 2,9 2 3 2,8 2,6 2,1 2
Slide 9: Q3 2023 Country & Sector Risk Assessments – Summary
Q3 2023 COUNTRY & SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS – SUMMARY 2 UPGRADES COUNTRIES 5 DOWNGRADES 17 UPGRADES SECTORS 16 DOWNGRADES
Slide 10: Country Risk Assessment Map – Q3 2023
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP – Q3 2023
Slide 11: Regional Sector Risk Assessment Map – Q3 2023
REGIONAL SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENT MAP – Q3 2023
Slide 12: What Does All That Mean for Corporate Insolvencies?
WHAT DOES ALL THAT MEAN FOR CORPORATE INSOLVENCIES? Weaker GDP/turnover growth Higher cost pressures (energy, manufacturing inputs, wages, working capital…) Lower operating margins Higher for longer interest rates (debt servicing) + no cut in corporate tax rates in sight (likely increases in some co
Slide 13: Business Insolvencies: Acceleration Ahead (1)
BUSINESS INSOLVENCIES: ACCELERATION AHEAD (1) Corporate insolvencies (100 = average 2019) Germany France Italy 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 120 140 120 110 120 100 100 100 80 90 80 60 80 60 40 70 40 60 20 20 50 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
Slide 14: Business Insolvencies: Acceleration Ahead (2)
BUSINESS INSOLVENCIES: ACCELERATION AHEAD (2) Corporate insolvencies (100 = average 2019) Brazil Japan Australia 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 160 120 140 140 110 120 120 100 100 100 90 80 80 80 60 60 70 40 40 60 20 50 20 0 40 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J
Slide 15: Follow Coface's Company Page on LinkedIn
TO GET OUR LATEST ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOLLOW COFACE'S COMPANY PAGE ON LINKEDIN
Slide 16: Thank You
_ THANK YOU FOR TRADE
Slide 17: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER This powerpoint presentation is a marketing communication emanating from The Coface Group is under no obligation and does not undertake to provide Coface Group. updates of these forward-looking statements and information to reflect events that Unless otherwise stated, references to the “G
Slide 18: Coface Economic Outlook 2024 & URBA360 Product Launch
coface Urba3co FOR TRADE COFACE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 & URBA360 PRODUCT LAUNCH gp aE 7 9 NOVEMBER 2023, SINGAPORE