Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — Fluid Fertilizer Marketing and Technology Workshop (December 2009)
34 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s conference presentation, Dec 8, 2009
Slide 1: Global Fertilizer Outlook and Trends: 2010 and Beyond
Global Fertilizer Outlook and Trends: 2010 and Beyond The Beginning of the Demand Recovery Joseph Fung Senior Market Analyst Tampa, FL Exhibit 99.1 Fluid Fertilizer Marketing and Technology Workshop
Slide 2: Topics
Topics Improving crop nutrient demand drivers and outlook Upturn in the global economic outlook Constructive agricultural fundamentals Tighter phosphate fundamentals begins to take hold Low stocks from producer warehouses to farm field Demand recovery underway Potash shipments remain slow Waiting fo
Slide 3: Unprecedented drop in global crop nutrient use (particularly P&K)
Unprecedented drop in global crop nutrient use (particularly P&K) World Nutrient Use 09/10F Source: IFA November 2009 Mil Tonnes 2007/08 2008/09E 2009/10F 2010/11F Nitrogen 3.2% -1.5% 1.6% 2.6% Phosphate 0.1% -10.5% 3.0% 6.2% Potash 6.8% -19.8% -4.5% 13.5% Total 3.1% -6.7% 1.0% 4.9% Source: IFA Nove
Slide 4: More upbeat global economic outlook
More upbeat global economic outlook World GDP Growth -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 10F GDP Growth 1990-2008 CAGR = 2.9% 2004- CAGR = 3.9%
Slide 5: Another large crop is needed in 2010
Another large crop is needed in 2010 World Grain and Oilseed Stocks L M H Mil Tonnes Days of Use Stocks Days of Use Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
Slide 6: Yields are key
Yields are key World Grain and Oilseed Harvested Area and Yield L M H Mil Ha 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 MT Ha Harvested Area Yield Trend Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
Slide 7: Grain and oilseed use marches upward
Grain and oilseed use marches upward World Grain and Oilseed Production and Use 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 L M H Bil Tonnes Production Use Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
Slide 8: Futures markets trading this view
Futures markets trading this view New Crop Corn Prices Daily Close of New Crop Options June 2, 2009 to December 4, 2009 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $ BU Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Source: CBOT New Crop Soybean Prices Daily Close of New Crop Options June 2, 2009 to
Slide 9: Harvest progress has been significantly behind normal
Harvest progress has been significantly behind normal U.S. Corn Harvest Progress Report Week Ending (Sunday) Ave. 2004-08 Sep Oct Nov U.S. Soybean Harvest Progress Report Week Ending (Sunday) Ave. 2004-08 Sep Oct Nov Source: USDA
Slide 10: Topics
Topics Improving crop nutrient demand drivers and outlook Upturn in the global economic outlook Constructive agricultural fundamentals Tighter phosphate fundamentals begins to take hold Low stocks from producer warehouses to farm field Demand recovery underway Potash shipments remain slow Waiting fo
Slide 11: Tighter phosphate fundamentals begin to take hold
Tighter phosphate fundamentals begin to take hold DAP Prices Central Florida Rail $ ST Source: Green Markets DAP Prices NOLA Barge $ ST Source: Green Markets DAP Prices fob Tampa Vessel $ MT Source: Fertecon
Slide 12: Raw material costs are edging up
Raw material costs are edging up Sulphur Prices c&f Tampa $ LT Source: Green Markets Ammonia Prices c&f Tampa $ MT Source: Fertecon
Slide 13: Global import demand projected to increase in 2010
Global import demand projected to increase in 2010 Processed phosphate includes DAP, MAP and TSP World Processed Phosphate Import Demand (Excludes China) 08E 09F 10F Mil Tonnes W Europe Asia Less China Oceania L America Other Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Slide 14: India: Record import demand
India: Record import demand India Processed Phosphate Import Demand 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 08E 09F 10F Mil Tonnes DAP MAP Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Slide 15: Latin America: Imports expected to rebound slightly
Latin America: Imports expected to rebound slightly Latin America Processed Phosphate Import Demand 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 08E 09F 10F Mil Tonnes DAP MAP TSP Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Slide 16: U.S. exports are projected to increase in 2009/10
U.S. exports are projected to increase in 2009/10 U.S. DAP and MAP Exports 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 10F Mil Tons DAP/MAP Source: TFI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 17: U.S. phosphate use forecast
U.S. phosphate use forecast U.S. Phosphate Use 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 09E 10F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 Source: AAPFCO and Mosaic
Slide 18: U.S. shipments are projected to rebound
U.S. shipments are projected to rebound U.S. Phosphate Use and DAP/MAP Shipments 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 09E 10F Mil Tons P O 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Mil Tons DAP/MAP Phosphate Use DAP/MAP Shipments Estimated DAP/MAP Use Source: AAPFCO, TFI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 19: Modest seasonal stock build followed by sharp drop is expected
Modest seasonal stock build followed by sharp drop is expected U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Stocks 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons MIN MAX Range (2004/05-2008/09) 2009/10 3-Yr Average Source: TFI U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Stocks 0.0 0
Slide 20: Topics
Topics Improving crop nutrient demand drivers and outlook Upturn in the global economic outlook Constructive agricultural fundamentals Tighter phosphate fundamentals begins to take hold Low stocks from producer warehouses to farm field Demand recovery underway Potash shipments remain slow Waiting fo
Slide 21: Published spot prices remain soft on limited volume
Published spot prices remain soft on limited volume Standard MOP Prices c&f SE Asia $ MT Source: ICIS Potash Prices Blend Grade c&f Brazil $ MT Source: ICIS Potash Prices Blend Grade fob U.S. Midwest Warehouse $ ST Source: Green Markets
Slide 22: MOP trade is projected to rebound in 2010
MOP trade is projected to rebound in 2010 World MOP Import Demand 08E 09F 10F Mil Tonnes Asia USA Latin America Europe Other Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
Slide 23: China's implied MOP use collapsed this year
China’s implied MOP use collapsed this year China Monthly MOP Imports 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mil Tonnes Source: China Customs China Implied Potash Use (Production + Imports - Re-exports) Mil Tonnes Net Imports Production Source: IFA an
Slide 24: Brazilian imports are projected to rebound in 2010
Brazilian imports are projected to rebound in 2010 Brazil MOP Import Demand 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 08E 09F 10F Mil Tonnes Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
Slide 25: NA exports are expected to increase in 2009/10
NA exports are expected to increase in 2009/10 North America MOP Exports 10F Mil Tons KCL Canada U.S. Source: IPNI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30
Slide 26: NA exports are expected to ramp up in 1H 2010
NA exports are expected to ramp up in 1H 2010 North America MOP Exports 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons K ² O MIN MAX Range (2003/04-2007/08) 2008/09 3-Yr Average Source: IPNI North America MOP Exports 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0
Slide 27: U.S. potash use forecast
U.S. potash use forecast U.S. Potash Use 2.25 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 09E 10F Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 Source: AAPFCO and Mosaic
Slide 28: NA Potash Use and Shipments
NA Potash Use and Shipments North America Potash Use and MOP Shipments 10F Mil Tons Mil Tons KCL Ag Use Total Shipments Estimated Use Source: IPNI and Mosaic Fertilizer Year Ending June 30 K ² O
Slide 29: MOP shipments remain at low levels
MOP shipments remain at low levels North America MOP Domestic Disapperance 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons MIN MAX Range (2003/04-2007/08) 2008/09 3-Yr Average Source: IPNI and TFI North America MOP Domestic Disapperance 0.0 0.1 0.
Slide 30: Strong recovery needed to reduce producer stocks
Strong recovery needed to reduce producer stocks North America MOP Producer Stocks 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mil Tons MIN MAX Range (2003/04-2007/08) 2008/09 3-Yr Average Source: IPNI North America MOP Producer Stocks 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5
Slide 31: Topics
Topics Improving crop nutrient demand drivers and outlook Upturn in the global economic outlook Constructive agricultural fundamentals Tighter phosphate fundamentals begins to take hold Low stocks from producer warehouses to farm field Demand recovery underway Potash shipments remain slow Waiting fo
Slide 32: Factors to Watch – 2009/10
Factors to Watch – 2009/10 Agricultural commodity prices and farm economics Weather during the next six months Northern Hemisphere: crop size and fertilizer application window Southern Hemisphere: size of crop -- especially in Brazil Oil prices and the demand for U.S. corn for ethanol production Imp
Slide 33: Long Term Outlook
Long Term Outlook Strong demand drivers still intact Population and income growth Further increases in grain-based biofuels production Demand growth requires supply increases Strong rebound of nutrient demand Existing facilities required to operate at more “normal” rates Few new projects/expansion i
Slide 34: Thank You!
Global Fertilizer Outlook and Trends: 2010 and Beyond The Beginning of the Demand Recovery Thank You! Joseph Fung Senior Market Analyst Tampa, FL Fluid Fertilizer Marketing and Technology Workshop
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