Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR
Yara International Asa — Investor Presentation (April 2025)
112 slides from Yara International Asa's investor presentation, April 2025
Slide 1: Fertilizer Industry Handbook 2025
Fertilizer Industry Handbook 2025 April 2025
Slide 2: Cautionary note
Cautionary note This presentation contains forward-looking information and statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of Yara and/or industry and markets in which it operates. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and may be identified by
Slide 3: List of contents
List of contents Fertilizer industry overview What is fertilizer? p. 4 Why mineral fertilizer? p. 8 Fertilizer CO2 footprint p. 13 Other environmental topics p. 22 Precision farming p. 26 Fertilizer industry dynamics p. 31 Ammonia p. 41 Urea p. 47 Nitrates p. 52 NPKs p. 59 Industry value drivers p.
Slide 4: What is fertilizer?
What is fertilizer? 4
Slide 5: Fertilizers are plant nutrients, required for crops to grow
Fertilizers are plant nutrients, required for crops to grow Crops need energy (light), CO2, water and minerals to grow The carbon in crops originates from CO2 absorbed through the leaves Crops absorb water and plant nutrients from the soil Plant nutrients are building blocks of crop material. Withou
Slide 6: Mineral fertilizers are produced from natural elements
Mineral fertilizers are produced from natural elements, into a form which makes them easily available for plants Nitrogen originates from the air (78% of the earth’s atmosphere is nitrogen). The most common Nitrogen (N) process in nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing is to create ammonia from a mixture
Slide 7: Principle of crop nutrition: crop growth limited by most deficient nutrient
Principle of crop nutrition: crop growth is limited by the most deficient nutrient ▪ Law of the Minimum (Liebig, 1843): “Crop yields are proportional to the amount of the most limiting nutrient.” ▪ Plant nutrients have specific and essential functions in crop metabolisms ▪ They cannot replace each o
Slide 8: Why mineral fertilizer?
Why mineral fertilizer? 8
Slide 9: Mineral fertilizers replace nutrients removed with the harvest
Mineral fertilizers replace nutrients removed from the soil with the harvest Supply of crop residues • Export of nutrients and organic fertilizer with the harvest • Growing demand for Mineral food & feed fertilizer Organic N K material, P humus Mineralisation S Mg Ca Crop residues are decomposed to
Slide 10: Mineral and organic fertilizers supply the same molecules
Mineral and organic fertilizers supply the same inorganic molecules to crops, but have different characteristics Characteristics Mineral fertilizer Organic fertilizer Nitrogen from the air, Nutrient Crop residues and animal manures, other organic source Phosphate and Potassium from deposits / materi
Slide 11: Nitrogen – the most important nutrient
Nitrogen – the most important nutrient Nutrient characteristics Primary benefit Application Industry structure Potassium (K2O) 18% ▪ Improve ▪ Application ▪ Fewer suppliers, crop quality can be varied production Phosphorus (P2O5) 24% discipline ▪ Fragmented ▪ Increase crop size ▪ Annual application
Slide 12: Regular nitrogen application is required to maintain yields
Regular nitrogen application is required in order to maintain yields Annual N-application is critical for yield Stable global nitrogen consumption pattern Grain yield from Nitrogen fertilizer Million tonnes of nitrogen (ex China) Ton per hectare 120 -43% 9.6 100 80 5.5 60 40 1.8 20 0 2000 2002 2004
Slide 13: Fertilizer CO2 footprint
Fertilizer CO2 footprint 13
Slide 14: Agri-food system is responsible for <30% of global GHG emissions
The agri-food system is responsible for <30% of global greenhouse gas emissions Fertilizer production and use represent <2% of emissions Emission sources 7.4% Livestock and manure 1.2% Rice 1% Mineral fertilizers (use) 4% Others (e.g., residues, org. soils, energy use) Farm gate 13.6% 5.3% Agricultu
Slide 15: Fertilizer reduces the carbon footprint of farming
Fertilizer reduces the carbon footprint of farming Fertilizer - an efficient solar energy catalyst ▪ Production is a marginal part of the carbon footprint; efficient application is more important ▪ Huge positive effects of fertilizer use, since higher yields enable lower land area use Production App
Slide 16: More than half of fertilizer GHG emissions take place in the field
More than half of total GHG emissions from fertilizer take place in the field ▪ More than half of total emissions in the fertilizer industry comes from fertilizer use – Scope 3 category 11 emissions from • Direct N2O emissions (nitrification and denitrification) • Indirect N2O emissions (ammonia vol
Slide 17: Increasing N2O emissions from the agriculture sector
Increasing N2O emissions from the agriculture sector Examples of nitrogen abatement measures per sector ▪ Atmospheric abundance of nitrous oxide (N2O) has Sector Measure increased by more than 20 per cent since the pre- Agricultural Nitrogen testing: Soil and plant nitrogen testing industrial era du
Slide 18: Emissions in the production process
Emissions in the production process occur mainly in the ammonia production step, catalyst technology invented by Yara has almost eliminated N2O emissions Nitrate Fossil fuel Hydrogen Ammonia Nitric acid fertilizer Standard fertilizer production CO2 Urea N2O Emissions 1.8-.2.4 mt CO2 per mt ammonia *
Slide 19: Carbon footprint of fertilizer production differs by region
Carbon footprint of fertilizer production differs by region - Europe is the most efficient Urea Ammonium nitrate kg CO2 per kg urea nitrogen (including CO2 embedded in Urea) kg CO2 equivalents per kg AN nitrogen 6.53 11.06 8.61 7.23 3.99 4.14 6.82 3.78 3.50 3.61 3.42 EU 27 Russia US Africa China Chi
Slide 20: Carbon cost exposure to increase as free allocations are reduced
Carbon cost exposure to increase as free allocations are gradually reduced Free allowance currently covering majority of EU ETS cost Phased implementation of CBAM will mirror the gradual for European producers phase-out of free allocations ▪ European ammonia production is exposed to a carbon/EU ETS
Slide 21: Nitrates and NPK are ideally suited for decarbonization
Nitrates and NPK are ideally suited for decarbonization Urea contains carbon and can not become carbon free Nitrates and NPK do not contain carbon Urea production process From ammonia Nitrate production process CO2 production NH3 Ammonium Ammonia Urea Ammonia Nitric Acid Energy Energy Nitrate (NH3)
Slide 22: Other environmental topics
Other environmental topics 22
Slide 23: Leaching: the right nitrogen rate is key
Leaching: The right nitrogen fertilizer rate is key to avoid nitrate leaching Grain yield (t/ha) Nitrate in the soil after harvest (kg N/ha) ▪ Leaching of nitrate into groundwater affects water quality and can contribute 10 100 to eutrophication1 9 80 ▪ Oversupply of organic and mineral nitrogen fer
Slide 24: Ammonia volatilization: choosing the right nitrogen fertilizer
Ammonia volatilization: Choosing the right nitrogen fertilizer is key to avoiding ammonia volatilization losses % NH3-N per N applied* ▪ Volatilization of ammonia gas affects cold (<15°C); non calcareous (≤ pH 7) air quality and induces soil acidification 25 warm (>25°C); calcareous (>pH7) ▪ The use
Slide 25: Water: good crop nutrition enables more crop per drop
Water: Good crop nutrition enables increased water efficiency: “more crop per drop” Water requirement (liter per kg of wheat grain) 600 ▪ Water is a key input for crop growth 510 450 ▪ About 70% of global water consumption is 380 for agriculture ▪ Optimized crop nutrition improves water use efficien
Slide 26: Precision farming
Precision farming 26
Slide 27: Precision farming: right nutrients, quantity and time
Precision farming: applying the right nutrients in the right quantity at the right time ▪ Growth conditions within fields are heterogeneous, affecting the crop yield and fertilizer demand ▪ Estimation of the nitrogen status of crops is a requirement to respond to this heterogeneity ▪ Digital tools e
Slide 28: Digital crop sensing tools enable variable rate nitrogen application
Digital crop sensing tools enable variable rate nitrogen application Yara N-Sensor 28
Slide 29: Examples of digital solutions provided by Yara
Examples of digital solutions provided by Yara N-sensor AtFarm ▪ Measures crop nitrogen uptake and creates a prescription map ▪ Atfarm uses state-of-the-art satellite imagery combined with for variable rate application Yara’s expertise and products to create variable rate fertilizer application maps
Slide 30: Field trials confirm benefits of variable rate nitrogen fertilization
Repeated field trials confirm that variable rate nitrogen fertilization has multiple benefits Replicated trials to estimate the effect of variable rate nitrogen fertilization compared to a uniform nitrogen fertilization Trials: Winter wheat Trials: Winter oilseed rape Yield: +3.6% Yield: +4.4% Nitro
Slide 31: The fertilizer industry
The fertilizer industry 31
Slide 32: Global consumption trend per nutrient
Global consumption trend per nutrient Million tonnes nutrient 140 N 1.9% growth pa.* 120 100 80 60 P 2.8% growth pa.* 40 20 K 3.7% growth pa.* 0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025F 2027F * CAGR avg. 2022-2023 to 202
Slide 33: Key global fertilizer products
Key global fertilizer products Potash K2O Nitrogen N Phosphate P2O5 Other Other 5% Ammonia Other 10% 3% Urea 15% 50% DAP/MAP 6% TSP 4% SSP NPK 7% DAP/MAP 36% MOP/SOP 49% NPK 60% 17% NPK AN/CAN 26% 8% UAN 5% 35 million tonnes 109 million tonnes* 44 million tonnes * Does not include industrial nitroge
Slide 34: Nutrient application by crop
Nutrient application by crop N+P+K Nitrogen By tonnes nutrient By tonnes nutrient Other Wheat Other Wheat 16% 15% 18% 18% Rice Fruit & veg 15% Fruit & veg 14% Rice 12% 16% Sugar crop 4% Maize Sugar crops 19% 4% Oil crops Maize 7% Oil crops 20% 7% Soybeans Other cereal Other cereal 6% 4% 5% 34 Source
Slide 35: Fertilizer consumption by region – key markets
Fertilizer consumption by region – 5 key markets Million tons nutrient consumption West/Central Europe Russia United States 9.4 3.5 1.0 0.8 12.0 2.1 2.1 N P2O5 K2O 4.6 N P2O5 K2O 3.9 24.8 China N P2O5 K2O India 11.0 8.9 20.2 N P2O5 K2O Brazil 7.9 1.7 7.1 5.7 5.8 N P2O5 K2O N P2O5 K2O 35 Source: IFA
Slide 36: Nitrogen consumption in key regions
Nitrogen consumption in key regions IFA consumption forecast, kt nitrogen 140,000 120,000 Europe 100,000 15% 80,000 North America 13% 60,000 58% Asia 10% 40,000 Latin America 5% 20,000 Africa 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2023 breakdown Europe North America Latin America Africa Asia 36 S
Slide 37: N industry is fragmented, P and K more concentrated
The N industry is fragmented, while the P and K industries are more concentrated 2023 figures1, share of produced nutrient Nitrogen (N) Phosphate (P) Potash (K) Other Other Egypt Israel China Other China Canada Brazil Germany Iran Saudi Arabia Canada China Jordan Saudi Arabia Russia Belarus Trinidad
Slide 38: Yara – the leading crop nutrition company
Yara – the leading crop nutrition company 2023 production capacity, excl. Chinese producers1 (mill. tonnes) Global no. 2 in ammonia Global no. 1 in nitrates Global no. 1 in NPK 8.8 2 8.22 2 6.8 * Incl. TAN and CN * Compound NPK, excl. blends Source: Yara estimates, company info 38 1) Incl. companies
Slide 39: Nitrogen fertilizer application by region and product
Nitrogen fertilizer application by region and product China (24.8 mt) West /Central Europe (9.4 mt) USA (12.0 mt) Other Other Other 11% DAP/MAP DAP/MAP 5% 12% 7% Urea 2% 32% DAP/MAP Urea 5% Urea 25% NPK 26% NPK 11% 4% UAN 12% UAN Ammonia 27 % Nitrates 28% 38% Nitrates NPK India (20.2 mt) 56% 2% Braz
Slide 40: Nitrogen fertilizer application by region and crop
Nitrogen fertilizer application by region and crop Russia EU-28 USA Other Other 17% 24% Wheat Oilseeds 29% 11% Wheat 44% Other 34% Fruits & vegtables Maize Maize 6% 10% Maize China 50% Oilseeds 14% Other cereals 11% Other cereals Sugar crops 14% Wheat 6% Other Other cereals 16% 13% Brazil Oilseeds 1
Slide 41: Ammonia
Ammonia 41
Slide 42: Global ammonia production was 186 million tons in 2023
Global ammonia production was 186 million tons in 2023 Million tonnes Total production Million tonnes 10 largest producers (2023) 200 57.0 180 160 140 120 In 2023 world ammonia 18.7 17.1 16.8 100 trade was 16.6 million tonnes, representing only 80 9% of production 7.1 6.5 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.4 60 2013-202
Slide 43: Most ammonia is upgraded to urea and other fertilizer
Most of global ammonia production is upgraded to urea and other finished fertilizer, only 9% of production is traded Million tonnes Ammonia trade Ammonia use (2020) 25 World trade - total 147 Urea DAP/MAP 20 Nitrates Other N 15 10 39 Yara trade1 5 0 Fertilizer Industrial use Source: Yara, IFA Source
Slide 44: Global ammonia trade
Global ammonia trade Million tonnes 10 largest exporters (2023) Million tonnes 10 largest importers (2023) 2.5 2.0 3.5 1.6 2.6 1.2 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 44 Source: IFA
Slide 45: Main ammonia flows 2023
Main ammonia flows 2023 West Europe interregional trade: 1 mt Russia to West Europe imports from Europe 0.5 mt outside: 3.1 mt 0.5 Canada to: USA 1 mt 1 0.6 1.1 1 0.4 USA to: Europe 0.6 mt 0.3 1 1.1 LatAm 0.3 mt 0.7 2.1 1.8 Indonesia and 0.6 Malaysia to: 0.8 0.4 India 0.4 Trinidad to: Africa to Euro
Slide 46: Expected ammonia demand from conventional and new applications
Significant expected ammonia demand driven by a mix of conventional and new applications Demand for ammonia is expected to grow significantly Strong regulatory drivers supporting demand growth Million tonnes Main customers Customers needs Key drivers 470 • Bulk and container • Decarbonize shipping •
Slide 47: Urea
Urea 47
Slide 48: Global urea production
Global urea production Million tonnes Total production 10 largest producers (2023) 220 63.3 200 180 160 140 31.3 120 100 11.8 10.6 7.9 7.7 6.9 6.5 80 5.7 4.7 60 2013-2023 trend growth rate = 1.3% p.a. 48 Source: IFA 2023
Slide 49: Global trade of urea in 2023 was 55.1 million tonnes
Global trade of urea in 2023 was 55.1 million tonnes 10 largest exporters (2023) 10 largest importers (2023) Million tonnes Million tonnes 8.1 7.8 6.6 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 49 Source: IFA 2023
Slide 50: Main urea flows 2023
Main urea flows 2023 Million tonnes 0.9 3.4 0.5 1.5 0.7 5.0 1.4 2.1 2.8 10.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.4 3.0 3.3 1.8 3.0 1.1 3.0 Source: IFA 2023, 91% of total trade shown
Slide 51: Urea prices remain high, but down from 2022
Urea prices remain high, but down from exceptionally high levels in 2022 USD/mt 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Arab Gulf ex. US Urea fob Egypt 51
Slide 52: Nitrates
Nitrates 52
Slide 53: Global nitrate production was 19.1 million tons of nitrogen
Global nitrate production was 19.1 million tons of nitrogen in 2023 Million tonnes nitrogen(AN/CAN) 10 largest producers (2023) Exports Domestic consumption 1.2 0.2 3.2 2.6 2.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 53 Source: IFA, AN/CAN including nitrate part of UAN, as are industrial gra
Slide 54: Nitrates are products with nitrate content of 50% or more
Nitrates are products with a nitrate content of 50 % or more N fertilizer N content Nitrate (% of total N) Other nutrients CAN (calcium ammonium nitrate) 27% 50% 4% MgO AN (ammonium nitrate) 33.5% 50% NPK various about 50% P&K CN (calcium nitrate) 15.5% 93% 19% Ca Urea 46% 0% UAN (liquid urea ammoni
Slide 55: Nitrates vs. urea
Nitrates vs. urea Nitrate is the most important fertilizer in Europe Urea (CON2H4) Ammonium (NH4+) Nitrate (NO3-) Urea-N needs to be converted into Ammonium-N is fixed onto clay minerals in Nitrate-N is always dissolved in the soil ammonium-N before it is plant the soil and therefore immobile. The p
Slide 56: Better spreading with nitrates
Better spreading with nitrates The poor spreading patterns with Urea cause striped fields and considerable yield loss Quantity Spread (%) Spreading width (21 m) CAN 130 Good 120 uniformity 110 Due to better 100 with CAN: 90 spreading quality of 80 CAN a higher yield Spreading distance (m) 70 equival
Slide 57: Nitrate outperformance compared with commodity nitrogen products
Nitrate outperformance compared with commodity nitrogen products Trial results for arable crops (cereals, UK) Extra N required for same yield Protein content at identical N rate Yield at identical N rate % % % 114 8.6 12.6 100 12.3 8.3 AN Urea AN Urea AN Urea To maintain the same yield, significantl
Slide 58: Yield advantages with nitrates in tropical climate
Yield advantages with nitrates in tropical climate Trial study in Brazil, higher coffee bean yield with nitrates as compared to urea Bean yield (t/ha) Crop value (USD/ha) ▪ Research shows that the 3.29 9,215 benefits of nitrates are even more pronounced in the tropics 2.68 7,512 than in colder clima
Slide 59: NPKs
NPKs 59
Slide 60: Global compound NPK capacities
Global compound NPK capacities Million tonnes 10 largest countries by capacity 47.1 6.8 6.2 4.2 3.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.7 China Russia Indonesia Vietnam India Japan Turkey France Norway Malaysia Poland 60 Source: IFA 2016, data for 2013/2014
Slide 61: Compound NPKs contain all nutrients in one particle
Compound NPKs contain all nutrients in one particle Compound NPKs NPK bulk blends All nutrients in each and every particle A mix of products with different spreading properties Risk of segregation and uneven Even spreading of all nutrients spreading 61
Slide 62: Bulk blend segregation during loading and unloading
Bulk blend segregation during loading and unloading Urea + DAP + MOP Compound NPK 15-15-15 15-15-15 Compound NPK 20 - 15 - 10 15 + 15 + 15 Compound NPK 13 - 17 - 15 15 + 15 + 15 Compound NPK 12 - 13 - 20 15 + 15 + 15 N – P2O5 – K2O analysis N – P2O5 – K2O analysis in a pile of poor quality blend in
Slide 63: Better spreading with compound NPKs
Better spreading with compound NPKs Spreading width The spreading width of light Urea particles like Urea is less than DAP those of heavier particles like DAP MOP and MOP Poor spreading patterns cause striped fields and significant yield losses Compound NPK 63
Slide 64: Compound NPKs give better nutrient distribution and higher yields
Compound NPKs give excellent spatial distribution of nutrients and higher crop yields as a result NPK Potato yield, tonne per ha Compound NPKs NPK 16+16+16 41 more particles and 39 better distribution NPK NPK N P Bulk blend Urea-DAP-MOP K fewer particles, longer distance to roots Bulk blend NPK Comp
Slide 65: Industry value drivers
Industry value drivers 65
Slide 66: Fertilizer prices are cyclical
Fertilizer prices are cyclical FAO Food price index (2014-2016=100) Urea granular FOB Arab Gulf ex. US (USD/t) CAN cif Germany (USD/t) 145 665 743 132 126 125 123 120 115 107 522 93 92 98 96 95 98 446 430 348 329 349 379 337 398 357 304 280 275 260 249 316 329 205 232 261 268 195 218 240 221 193 10
Slide 67: Nitrogen fertilizer value drivers
Nitrogen fertilizer value drivers Drivers: Effect on: Global urea demand vs. supply Urea price “Marginal producer” production costs Supply-driven urea price Crop prices/grain inventories Urea demand / demand-driven urea price Revenue drivers: New urea capacity vs. closures Urea supply Urea price Mos
Slide 68: Drivers of demand
Drivers of demand 68
Slide 69: Drivers consumption growth
Drivers consumption growth Fertilizer consumption is mainly driven by food demand kcal/capita/day Food consumption ▪ Population growth 3,000 ▪ Economic growth and diet changes 2,950 ▪ More protein-rich diets 2,900 ▪ More fruit and vegetables 2,850 ▪ Reduced hunger 2,800 ▪ Nutrient use efficiency in
Slide 70: Profitability of investment in mineral fertilizers
Profitability of investment in mineral fertilizers Yield response (monetary value) to N fertilizer rate Income USD/ha Yield, tonne/ha ▪ The investment in nitrogen fertilizer is highly 3,000 10.0 profitable for growers 9.0 2,500 ▪ Fertilizer investment: 188 USD/ha 8.0 7.0 ▪ Net return: 1,446 USD/ha 2
Slide 71: Higher grain prices allow for increased nitrogen fertilizer values
Higher grain prices allow for increased nitrogen fertilizer values Illustration of price impacts ▪ High crop prices provide much-needed 3500 Revenue (Euro/ha, only N cost considered) incentives to farmers and global food @ high prices production 3000 2500 ▪ Farmers get the full revenue effect of yie
Slide 72: Key crops by region
Key crops by region Global production: Corn Wheat Rice Soybeans EU Other 17 % China 15 % USA Other Other Other 28 % China 35 % 27 % 31 % 34 % 5% United States 32 % China Argentina 17 % 12 % Ukraine 3% Vietnam EU Brazil 5% India 5% 10 % China Thailand 26 % Brazil 23 % US Russia India Indonesia 4% 39
Slide 73: Grain production forecasted to fall short of consumption
Grain production forecasted to fall short of consumption for the 2024/25 season – by 30 million tons Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks Million tons Days 2,900 125 2,800 115 2,700 105 2,600 95 2,500 85 2,400 75 2,300 65 2,200 55 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25F 15 16 17
Slide 74: Grain inventories outside China
Grain inventories outside China, forecast is a sharp decline for 2024/25 (July–June) Grain stocks – excluding China Days of consumption in stock – excluding China Mill. tonnes Days 360 66 64 350 62 340 60 330 58 56 320 54 310 52 300 50 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25F 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Slide 75: Breakdown of grain production costs
Breakdown of grain production costs Example: 2023 average US corn production costs Fertilizer share of US corn production cost 30% Seed 13 % Other 10 % 25% Fertilizer 20 % 20% Land 20 % 15% Chemicals 7% 10% Labour 4% 5% Power & Machinery 26 % 0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Slide 76: Large variations in grain yields across regions
Large variations in grain yields across regions Maize yields Wheat yields Tonnes/Ha Tonnes/Ha 10.9 7.0 5.9 6.7 6.4 5.2 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.9 US Argentina China Brazil Mexico France China India Russia US Tonnes/Ha Rice yields Tonnes/Ha Soybean yields 3.3 7.0 3.0 6.0 2.8 5.2 4.9 4.2 2.0 1.1 China Vietnam In
Slide 77: Seasonality in fertilizer consumption
Seasonality in fertilizer consumption Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Corn USA China Europe Brazil, first crop Brazil, second crop Wheat China (winter wheat) China (spring wheat) India (Rabi) USA (winter wheat) USA (spring wheat) Europe (winter wheat) FSU (winter wheat) Rice China (s
Slide 78: Drivers of supply
Drivers of supply 78
Slide 79: Nitrogen value chain
Nitrogen value chain Raw material Intermediate Finished products Industrial products products H, Ar, CO etc Industrial gases C02 Natural gas Ammonia Ammonia Environmental Urea products Nitric acid Industrial nitrogen Nitric acid Nitrates chemicals Calcium Nitrate 79
Slide 80: Ammonia production process based on natural gas
Ammonia production process based on natural gas Steam Methane Reforming (SMR, “front end”) Haber-Bosch synthesis loop (“back end”) Natural gas reacts with steam in presence of a Combines hydrogen gas (H2) and nitrogen gas (N2) at high pressures and temperatures to form catalyst yielding hydrogen and
Slide 81: ATR technology increases the CO2 capture rate
Using ATR technology rather then SMR in the front-end of the ammonia plant increases the CO2 capture rate Process CO2 can easily be Methane, Methane as fuel captured given its purity and CO2 ▪ SMR is the main production technology to produce ammonia CH4 high pressure outside of China Steam ▪ Carbon
Slide 82: Fertilizer production routes
Fertilizer production routes Finished fertilizer products Natural gas Ammonia (coal, oil) Ammonia Ammonia plant Air CO2 Urea Ammonia Air Nitric acid plant Ammonium Nitrate (AN) Nitric acid Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) Rock (P) Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) H3PO4 Phosphoric acid plant Single Super P
Slide 83: NPK production routes
NPK production routes Natural gas Ammonia plant (coal, oil) Ammonia Air Air Nitric acid plant Nitric acid Nitrophosphate based NPK Nitrophosphate plant + Calcium Nitrate (CN) 1 Phosphate rock1 H3PO4 Phosphoric acid based NPK Phosphoric acid plant 2 + gypsum Urea AN/CAN Sulphur Sulphuric acid plant D
Slide 84: Nitrogen technology evolution
Nitrogen technology evolution 450 400 Birkeland-Eyde electric arc method 350 300 GJ/tN 250 Cyanamid method 200 150 Steam reforming natural gas Haber-Bosch synthesis 100 Autothermal reforming 50 Theoretical minimum 0 1910 1915 1930 1950 1960 1975 2000 84
Slide 85: Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us
Peak of urea capacity additions is behind us Global urea capacity additions ex. China 1,2 (mt) India Russia Iran Algeria USA Nigeria Australia Others Uncertain completion year for several projects 6.7 between 2026 and 2029 with differing views from 5.9 publications. 5.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.1 1.9%
Slide 86: 5-year typical construction time for nitrogen projects
5-year typical construction time for nitrogen fertilizer projects* 4–6 years Business development Concept Feasibility Prepare selection Construction Operation phase for execution Gas phase agreement 12-24 months 30-36 months depending on complexity 6-12 months - check cost assumptions by approaching
Slide 87: Price relations
Price relations y 87
Slide 88: Upgrading margins from ammonia to urea
Upgrading margins from ammonia to urea USD/tonne 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan 15 Jan 17 Jan 19 Jan 21 Urea fob Arab Gulf 0.6 * Ammonia fob Arab Gulf + 15 88 Source: Average of international publications
Slide 89: Grain prices important for fertilizer demand and pricing
Grain prices important for fertilizer demand and pricing Corn USD/t Urea USD/t 350 700 300 600 250 500 200 400 150 300 100 200 50 100 0 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Corn fob US Gulf Urea fob Middle East 89 Source: World Bank, F
Slide 90: Urea market increasingly demand-driven since 2020
The urea market has been increasingly demand-driven since 2020 USD/t Urea price, (fob Yuzhny until 2021, 1200 Egypt from 2022) 1000 Extraordinary spike in gas prices 800 in Europe drove up global urea prices 600 400 200 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201
Slide 91: Nitrate premium is mainly a function of crop prices
Nitrate premium is mainly a function of crop prices CAN price, Wheat price, USD/t USD/t 900 450 800 400 700 350 600 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 100 50 - - 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 Adjus
Slide 92: Main agricultural commodity prices – yearly averages
Main agricultural commodity prices – yearly averages Average prices 2010- 2023 USD/t Wheat (HRW US Gulf) USD/t Rice (Thailand) 500 600 400 500 300 400 200 100 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Oct 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202
Slide 93: Cash crop prices – yearly averages
Cash crop prices – yearly averages Average prices 2010 - 2023 USD/kg Cocoa USD/kg Coffee (arabica) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Oct 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Oct 2024 2024 USD/kg USD/kg Cot
Slide 94: 10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages USD/t USD/t CAN cfr Germany Ammonia fob Arab Gulf 1,300 900 1,100 900 700 700 500 500 300 300 100 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 USD/t Urea granual Arab Gulf ex.
Slide 95: Production economics
cama. — . f- ~~ 7 = ’ Production economics
Slide 96: Yara's operating cash costs are mainly variable
Yara’s operating cash costs are mainly variable Operating cash cost 2021 USD Billions ▪ Temporary plant closures can be carried out 16 with limited stop/start costs 14 1.7 Other cash cost (12%) ▪ Example for ammonia/urea plants: 12 ▪ Typically, half a week to stop and up to a 10 week to start 8 Vari
Slide 97: Ammonia cash cost build-up – example
Ammonia cash cost build-up – example Gas price: 7 USD/MMBtu 36 MMBtu natural gas/tonne ammonia x Gas consumption: 36 MMBtu/mt NH3 = Gas cost: 252 USD/mt NH3 Ammonia (NH3) + Other prod. cost*: 39 USD/mt NH3 (82% N) = Total cash cost: 291 USD/mt NH3 Typical natural gas consumption for ammonia Emission
Slide 98: Urea cash cost build-up – example
Urea cash cost build-up – example Ammonia cost: 291 USD/mt NH3 36 MMBtu natural gas/tonne ammonia x Ammonia use: 0.58 NH3/mt urea = Ammonia cost: 169 USD/mt urea Ammonia (NH3) (82% N) + Process gas cost*: 36 USD/mt urea CO2 + Other prod. cost**: 46 USD/mt urea 0.58 mt ammonia per tonne urea = Total
Slide 99: Theoretical consumption factors
Theoretical consumption factors Ammonia (82% N) P and K Urea AN CAN NPK (46% N) (33.5% N) (27% N) (15-15-15)* • Price comparisons should always be based on nutrient tons, not product tons * There are many NPK formulas; 15-15-15 is one example 99
Slide 100: Main phosphate processing routes
Main phosphate processing routes 2023 production and exports, million tons product Sulphuric acid** Phosphate rock Rock production: 216 (72% BPL*, 33% P2O5 ) Rock exports: 30 Phosphoric acid Production: 85 (100% P2O5) Export: 8 Ammonia ( 82% N) SSP DAP MAP TSP (15-22% P2O5) (18% N, 46% P2O5) (11% N,
Slide 101: Industrial applications
Industrial applications 101
Slide 102: Nitrogen is key for food and numerous industrial applications
Nitrogen is key for food production and indispensable in numerous industrial applications in addition to fertilizer Fertilizers The global food chain Ammonia Urea Calcium Nitrates Nitric Acid Technical Ammonium Nitrates • Melamine • Civil • NOx reduction • NOx explosives Industrial Applications solu
Slide 103: Nitrogen has many industrial applications
Nitrogen has many industrial applications DeNOx Latex Animal reagent Concrete dipping feed for for transport Nutrients additive coagulant ruminants AdBlue/DEF for NitCal DipCal Pharma Arla 32 waste water and Odor & H2S cosmetics solutions i.e. DeNOx YaraNutriox Adiponitrile reagent for stationary En
Slide 104: Industrial use accounts for ~23% of global nitrogen consumption
Industrial use accounts for ~23% of global nitrogen consumption Global ammonia consumption Industrial ammonia consumption Technical grade urea consumption Industrial application AN techical Diesel exhaust fluid 17% 15% 23% Industrial and other non-fertilizer demand 35% Glue 46% 21% Other 77% 48% 18%
Slide 105: Global demand for industrial nitrogen applications is strong
Global demand development for industrial nitrogen applications is strong Million tonnes nitrogen 2.1% 79 55 2023 2040E Demand growth for Industrial applications is estimated to ~2.1 % annually 105 Source: Fertecon
Slide 106: Reagents, technology and services to improve air quality
Reagents, technology and services to improve air quality Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are a major air quality issue causing serious problems mostly in urban centers related to both the environment and human health. Legislation around the world drives the business growth. ▪ Air 1 AdBlue/DEF is a generic nam
Slide 107: Calcium nitrate applications
Calcium nitrate applications in wastewater treatment, concrete manufacturing, oil fields and latex industries ▪ Nutriox provides H2S prevention for Corrosion, Odor and Toxicity control of municipal and industrial wastewater systems ▪ Nitcal is a multifunctional concrete admixture serving concrete ad
Slide 108: Technical Nitrates for Civil Explosives
Technical Nitrates for Civil Explosives olewj-colombia-ceb-0038 ▪ Various grades of Ammonium Nitrate and Calcium Nitrate for use in the civil explosives and mining industries ▪ Largest customer segments are civil explosives companies, open-pit coal and iron mining sectors 108
Slide 109: Animal feed products based on core chemicals
Animal Feed industry with several nutritional products based on core chemicals ▪ Feed Phosphates Macro-minerals such as phosphorus and calcium are essential elements to sustain healthy and productive animal growth ▪ Feed Acidifiers Antimicrobial effect and lowering pH, replace AGP (antibiotic growth
Slide 110: Market Data Sources
Market Data Sources 110
Slide 111: Sources of market information
Sources of market information Fertilizer market information ▪ Argus www.argusmedia.com ▪ Fertecon – S&P Global Energy www.spglobal.com ▪ Fertilizer Week www.crugroup.com ▪ Profercy www.profercy.com ▪ ICIS/The Market www.icis.com ▪ Green Markets (USA) www.fertilizerpricing.com ▪ China Fertilizer Mark
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Yara International — Investor Presentation (April 2025) on 6ix