Slide 1: The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2015
The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2015 April 30, 2015 Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer Rich Mack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
Click to edit Master title style 2 Safe Harbor Statement This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known a
Slide 3: Visible Strategic Progress
Visible Strategic Progress 2 $0.52 $0.70 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.02 $0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 Q1 14 Adjusted EPS CF Volume Lower Potash Costs/Tonne Lower Share Count Other Q1 15 Adjusted EPS E P S 3
Slide 4: First Quarter Financial Highlights
Click to edit Master title style 4 First Quarter Financial Highlights $1,172 $439 $653 Net Sales Phosphates International Distribution Potash $190 $3 $204 Operating Earnings $0.80 diluted earnings per share • Includes $0.10 positive impact of notable items $656 million in cash from operations $2
Slide 5: Late North American Spring Crop Progress
Late North American Spring 2 5 Crop Progress for Week Ending April 27, 2015 % Corn Planted Last week Last year 5-year Average Illinois 31% 15% 28% 37% Indiana 3% 1% 7% 26% Iowa 14% 1% 13% 24% Kansas 32% 23% 35% 31% Minnesota 38% 12% 3% 20% Missouri 20% 8% 44% 44% Nebraska 16% 4% 18% 17% 18 States* 1
Slide 6: Financial Results Review
Financial Results Review
Slide 7: Phosphates Segment Highlights
First Quarter Highlights: • The year-over-year increase in net sales is driven by higher realized finished product prices and higher sales volumes. • The year-over-year increase in operating earnings reflects higher finished product selling prices and higher sales volumes, partially offset by higher
Slide 8: Potash Segment Highlights
First Quarter Highlights: • The decrease in net sales was driven by lower sales volumes, partially offset by higher realized prices. • The year-over-year increase in operating earnings was driven by higher realized prices and lower plant spending, partially offset by lower sales volumes and higher r
Slide 9: International Distribution Segment Highlights
First Quarter Highlights: • The increase in net sales was driven by higher sales volumes and higher average realized prices. • The year-over-year decrease in operating earnings was driven by lower per tonne profitability as a result of a higher mix of nitrogen sales in Brazil. International Distribu
Slide 10: Balance Sheet and Capital Update
Balance Sheet and Capital Update Maintain Strong Financial Foundation Sustain Assets & Dividend Grow Business Return 10
Slide 11: Financial Guidance Summary: Phosphates and International Distribution
Click to edit Master title style 11 Financial Guidance Summary Phosphates 2015 Q2 Sales volumes 2.3 to 2.7 million tonnes Q2 DAP selling price $425 to $450 per tonne Q2 Gross margin rate Around 20 percent Q2 Operating rate 80 to 85 percent Full year sales volumes 9 to 10 million tonnes International
Slide 12: Financial Guidance Summary: Potash and Consolidated
Click to edit Master title style 12 Financial Guidance Summary Potash 2015 Q2 Sales volumes 2.0 to 2.4 million tonnes Q2 MOP selling price $265 to $290 per tonne Q2 Gross margin rate Upper 30 percent range Q2 Operating rate 85 to 90 percent Full year sales volumes 8.5 to 9 million tonnes Full Year C
Slide 13: Helping the World Grow the Food it Needs
Helping the World Grow the Food it Needs
Slide 14: Market Update: North America
Market Update: North America 14 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jul‐Dec 2014 (A) Jan‐Jun 2015 (F) Jul‐Dec 2015 (F) Jan‐Jun 2016 (F) North American Potash Shipments Spring 15 Range Fall 15 Range Spring 16 Range Fall 14 Actual 7‐Yr Olympic Average 7‐Yr Min‐Max Range 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Jul‐Dec 2014 (A
Slide 15: Market Update: China
Market Update: China 2 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q1 Actual Q2‐Q4 Forecast 1000 Tonnes Source: China Customs and Mosaic China Potash Imports (MOP) 2014 2015 15
Slide 16: Market Update: India
Market Update: India 2 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Q1 Actual Q2‐Q4 Forecast 1000 Tonnes Source: FAI and Mosaic India Phosphate & Potash Imports (DAP/MOP) 2014 2015 16
Slide 17: Market Update: Brazil
Market Update: Brazil 2 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q1 Actual Q2‐Q4 Forecast 1000 Tonnes Source: ANDA and Mosaic Brazil Phosphate & Potash Imports (DAP/MAP/MES/TSP/MOP) 2014 2015 17
Slide 18: Thank You
Thank You The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2015 April 30, 2015 Market Update
Slide 19: Thank You
Thank You The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2015 April 30, 2015
Slide 20: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 21: Raw Material Cost Detail
Q1 2015 Percent Ammonia ($/tonnes) Realized in COGS $519 Average Purchase Price $499 Sulfur ($/ton) Realized in COGS $145 Average Purchase Price $161 Phosphate rock (realized in COGS) ('000 tonnes) U.S. mined rock 3,755 91% Purchased Miski Mayo Rock 334 8% Other Purchased Rock 18 1% Total 4,107 100%
Slide 22: Phosphate Raw Material Trends
$- $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015F Realized Costs Market Prices $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015F Realized Costs Market Prices 22 Phosphate Raw M
Slide 23: Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers
(a) These factors do not change in isolation; actual results could vary from the above estimates (b) Assumes no change to KMAG pricing 2015 Q1 Actual Change 2015 Q1 Margin % Actual % Impact on Segment Margin Pre-Tax Impact EPS Impact Marketing MOP Price ($/tonne)(b) $288 $50 37% 15% $95 $0.21 Potash
Slide 24: Reconciliation: Adjusted EPS
24 Reconciliation: Adjusted EPS Three months ended March 31, 2015 2014 Diluted earnings per share, as reported $ 0.80 $ 0.54 Items included in EPS: Foreign currency transaction gain 0.09 0.08 Unrealized gain (loss) on derivatives (0.08) (0.01) Discrete tax items 0.08 0.16 Remediation of a pre‐combin
Slide 25: Reconciliation: Excess Cash
25 Reconciliation: Excess Cash Cash and cash equivalents at March 31, 2015 $ 2,517 Adjustments: Asset retirement obligations (650) Share Repurchase authorization (149) Liquidity buffer (1,000) Excess Cash at March 31, 2015 $ 718